Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 23:04 | Report Abuse

Asian benefit but HY ada dapat cheap oil from russia or not. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 23:05 | Report Abuse

no need cheap oil, as long refinery shortage, operating refinery can hike up margin..

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 23:14 | Report Abuse

Very important u should ask what is the current crack spread as at 2-9-2022?

sept 2022- USD 0.80
0ct 2022 - USD (0.70}
Nov 2022- USD (0.65}
Dec 2022= USD {0.18}

From the above trend the future crack spread trend is highly unattractive with low yield & negative yield loh!

A reasonable yield crack spread should be around USD 4 mah!

This mean Prtron future 12 mths for 31-12-2022 performance will not exceed profit of Rm 289m or EPS Rm 1.07!

Whereas HRC 31-12-2022 future 12 mths performance will not report better result of loss rm 475m or loss of Rm 1.58 per share loh!

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-02 23:28 | Report Abuse

Walao Oct/Nov/Dec future crack all alrdy turn (-)

Totally collapse leh

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 23:40 | Report Abuse

Correctloh....!

With Hengyuan languishing at Rm 475m losses as at 30-6-2022....very hard for it to catch up with negative crack spread loh!

Posted by MoneyMakers > 9 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Walao Oct/Nov/Dec future crack all alrdy turn (-)

Totally collapse leh

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 23:46 | Report Abuse

Just saw your reply Rabbit2, you are the man..amazing!

THANK YOU SO MUCH...

Posted by Rabbit2 > Sep 2, 2022 10:47 PM | Report Abuse

@Probability, I could be wrong as I'm still learning

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-02 23:47 | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
You might as well tell me what will be Toto next draw number.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 23:50 | Report Abuse

I think the future negative crack spread tell u something meaningful mah!

Correctloh....!

With Hengyuan languishing at Rm 475m losses as at 30-6-2022....very hard for it to catch up with negative crack spread loh!

Very important u should ask what is the current crack spread as at 2-9-2022?

sept 2022- USD 0.80
0ct 2022 - USD (0.70}
Nov 2022- USD (0.65}
Dec 2022= USD {0.18}

From the above trend the future crack spread trend is highly unattractive with low yield & negative yield loh!

A reasonable yield crack spread should be around USD 4 mah!

Posted by Sslee > 28 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
You might as well tell me what will be Toto next draw number.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-02 23:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:01 | Report Abuse

Do not kon the naive mah!

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-03 00:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-03 00:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:04 | Report Abuse

Yes go & make your money quietly...do not kon loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:12 | Report Abuse

There is no justfication Hengyuan valuation should be supported due to wrongful reporting of its profit & huge losses of its derivative mah!

Let Raider summarised hengyuan position loh!

1.HRC Q2 for 30-6-2022
2. HRC 6mts 30-6-2022

1a.Profit/{loss} attributable to shareholder............Rm 667m
1b. Profit/{loss? comprehensive to shareholder...Rm {412}m
number of shares Rm 300m
1a. Eps Rm 2.22
1b Eps Rm {1.37}

Culmulative 6m
2a, Profit attributable to shareholders..... Rm 714m
2b. Profit comprehensive income shareholders Rm (475m}

2a, EPS Rm Rm 2.38
2b. Eps Rm {1.58}

Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!

But hengyuan do not loh! It keep the hedging loss as no impact to EPS loh!

If we standardised the treatment like Petron....Hengyuan will be reporting huge losses loh!

Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!

Thus Hengyuan performance appear very bad compare to Petron loh!

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-03 00:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:19 | Report Abuse

The problem is rabbit only know audit but he cannot spot kon loh!
Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 4 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Rabbit2 is a qualified accountant.
He has the experience to audit a refinery company.
He knows hedging rules well.
Unlike an office boy, continue to tell lies here.
This office boy lost a lot of money on Hengyuan in 2017 until he hid himself at Pudu market.
Bullshit and twist the story to suit him.
Real shameless.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-03 00:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:24 | Report Abuse

U kon innocent people....still want to bulllshiitt ah ?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 35 seconds ago | Report Abuse

qqq3 fxxk you.
Another shameless liar.
Continue to tell lies after lies.
No wonder you are beaten by a gang in Bangsar because of your bad mouth.
You are cursed and the gang should beat you to death.
You are an useless dead wood in this world.
No value at all.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 00:26 | Report Abuse

well said Zhuge..

this people like raider is the root cause many valuable people like Rabbit2 dont come to i3 often

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 3, 2022 12:13 AM | Report Abuse

Rabbit2 is a qualified accountant.
He has the experience to audit a refinery company.
He knows hedging rules well.
Unlike an office boy, continue to tell lies here.
This office boy lost a lot of money on Hengyuan in 2017 until he hid himself at Pudu market.
Bullshit and twist the story to suit him.
Real shameless.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 00:27 | Report Abuse

LOL!

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 3, 2022 12:22 AM | Report Abuse

qqq3 fxxk you.
Another shameless liar.
Continue to tell lies after lies.
No wonder you are beaten by a gang in Bangsar because of your bad mouth.
You are cursed and the gang should beat you to death.
You are an useless dead wood in this world.
No value at all.

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-09-03 00:30 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge, I have never ever audit nor involved in any refinery company. Just that I peanut knowledge about hedge accounting if derivatives are taken as hedging instruments as general. As I said, I blow water only and I could be wrong.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:30 | Report Abuse

Already highlighted to U...Hengyuan people cannot be trusted,,,,still refuse to accept ah ?

The most question for those people who invest in hengyuan is to ask whether the derivative executed are actually a faked device to siphon money from the company loh ?


The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Posted by probability > 43 seconds ago | Report Abuse

well said Zhuge..

this people like raider is the root cause many valuable people like Rabbit2 dont come to i3 often

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 00:44 | Report Abuse

my understanding is that

realised hedging losses flow thro PnL as part of purchase or sales where applicable
realised gambling hedging done unrelated/unconnected/unidentifiable to specific purchases or sales will go to a one liner that is part of PnL [I would call this gambling profits/losses, cough cough]
unrealised hedging losses of all types flow thro Comprehensive Income

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:50 | Report Abuse

Rubbish loh!

Hedging is for smoothing out the Profit & Loss of the operations mah!

Thus rightfully the hedging profit or loss should flow thru P&L loh!

Just like what Petron has done mah!

Lu tau boh ??

I m shocked Hengyuan has hedging of more than 3 yrs long....what type of coockkeed hedging hengyuan is doing leh ?

Posted by i3lurker > 36 seconds ago | Report Abuse

my understanding is that

realised hedging losses flow thro PnL as part of purchase or sales where applicable
realised gambling hedging done unrelated/unconnected/unidentifiable to specific purchases or sales will go to a one liner that is part of PnL [I would call this gambling profits/losses, cough cough]
unrealised hedging losses of all types flow thro Comprehensive Income

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 00:50 | Report Abuse

Raider

I already explained above

////Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!///

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 00:51 | Report Abuse

Raider already explain loh!

I m shocked Hengyuan has hedging of more than 3 yrs long....what type of coockkeed hedging hengyuan is doing leh ?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 00:58 | Report Abuse

Raider

for fixed term Futures Hedges, buy early is cheaper sometimes not always
Market Maker fixed price cheaper coz you pay more swap rates

so at report date its unrealized gain/loss pertaining to future periods as long as possible 10 years later.
[you wanna buy, Market Makers will give you a Quote]

putting inside current year PnL will be fake results since its 10 years later punya effects

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 01:02 | Report Abuse

If u want to kon............u fixed long dated hedge loh!

Easy to capitalise opportunity to kon....with long dated hedge mah!

Btw....we do not know....who is the other counter party of the hedger....it could be unknown...party....who have no financial means....if the hedge go against it mah!


Posted by i3lurker > 31 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Raider

for fixed term Futures Hedges, buy early is cheaper sometimes not always
Market Maker fixed price cheaper coz you pay more swap rates

so at report date its unrealized gain/loss pertaining to future periods as long as possible 10 years later.
[you wanna buy, Market Makers will give you a Quote]

putting inside current year PnL will be fake results since its 10 years later punya effects

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 01:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraiderFarkMom > 2022-09-03 01:28 | Report Abuse

My son stockraider says HengYuan hedging executive cannot be trusted. Actually as stockraider MOTHER I had this bad expetience while working as a cleaner in HENG YUAN. One day while I was cleaning the MEN TOILET , the CEO a ask me to jilat his #### and hisap his lan chio. I listen to him and also let him play with me after he gave me rm 20.

Posted by stockraiderFarkMom > 2022-09-03 01:29 | Report Abuse

Thats the real story why my son stockraider HATES HENGYUAN and not your sifu lah...zhuge

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 01:31 | Report Abuse

Please note that long term futures hedges are extremely dangerous in High Interest Rate Regime like a Volcker Fcuk

you would borrow 80% of any contract coz notional value is only 20%

means interest rate of 20% will be applied to 80% borrowings for 3 years

=> Guaranteed Bankruptcy, no kidding, you do the maths yourself

thats why HRC needs to borrow RM5 Billion just to survive ....

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 01:33 | Report Abuse

when HRC executed those Long Term Futures Contracts Nobody ever imagined that USD interest rates will be high.

now nasi jadi bubur => need to borrow RM5 Billion to standby

Posted by Phoebe > 2022-09-03 06:02 | Report Abuse

All Zhuge statement is a lie? A pot calling a kettle black where he himself twisting facts and fabricating the stories. What an irony.

Zhuge_Liang
Rabbit2 is a qualified accountant.
He has the experience to audit a refinery company

Rabbit2
@Zhuge, I have never ever audit nor involved in any refinery company. Just that I peanut knowledge about hedge accounting if derivatives are taken as hedging instruments as general. As I said, I blow water only and I could be wrong.

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-09-03 06:30 | Report Abuse

@stockraider you promoted so strongly on HY in year 2017, you must lost a lot of money through this counter.

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-09-03 06:32 | Report Abuse

For you to be sooooo angry with HY management. Long hedges for oil and gas industry is very normal as this industry is very volatile.

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-09-03 06:34 | Report Abuse

Hedging loss is almost turn to hedging gain very soon.

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-09-03 06:41 | Report Abuse

We are very happy once the petrol profit turn to negative as long as diesel profit to remain the same. We mix certain percentage of petrol into diesel to blend and sell off. With petrol turn negative and knock off the hedging loss too. Going to be a fantastic profit in next Qtr

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-03 06:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by upshare > 2022-09-03 07:00 | Report Abuse

Refer to blog.from uncle KYy
HY crack spread is only refer in negative mean HY loss money when produce one barrel of oil...
Uncle KYY..ada betul tak?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 07:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 07:20 | Report Abuse

Uncle Koon only highlighted the crackspread same as promoter highlighted the crackspread when hit record high mah. Same same cerita crackspread leh.Up you all can blow water. Down Uncle Koon also can blow water mah. You all teach Uncle Koon one mah. Cakap he know nothing about refinery leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

upshare

Refer to blog.from uncle KYy
HY crack spread is only refer in negative mean HY loss money when produce one barrel of oil...
Uncle KYY..ada betul tak?

16 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 07:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 07:27 | Report Abuse

Uncle cakap dia cakap is correct one. Aunty cakap dia cakap is correct one. So how. Mau listen to uncle or listen to Aunty now. Siapa is correct now. Harga saham baru is correct lah. Not uncle or aunty is correct leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-03 07:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 07:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-03 07:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 07:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-03 07:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 07:55 | Report Abuse

Ular
Hedging is a strategy that tries to limit risks in financial assets. It uses financial instruments or market strategies to offset the risk of any adverse price movements

Petronm management trying very hard to explain during AGM. That whatever loss in hedging will be offset/recovered by gain in physical goods (bought crude and sold finished products) and vice versa.

Example if in the beginning of the month CME quoted daily refining margin for month.
Jan to Dec at A1 to A2 these rate varies daily according to phycical daily refining margin movement.
If the rate reach your target/acceptable margin you might want to hedge 50-100% of your plan forward month capacity run.

In other word you already locked in your refining margin for forward month using hedging.

Hence if in Q2 the physical realised refining margin is USD 30 per barrel but your refining margin hedged for Q2 is at average of USD 15 per barrel.
Your hedged make a realised loss of USD (30-15)x the hedge volume.
Your physical (bought crude oil and sold finished products) on the hedged volume realised a physical margin of USD 30

Thus your net gross profit for this hedged volume is USD physical 30 - hedge loss USD 15 = USD 15 per barrel. (You locked in refining margin.

Hope above will help you understand business hedging againt speculative rogue trader like Nick Leeson.