Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 10:29 | Report Abuse

If dont pump how to earn lah. Kakijudi wtg the moment mah. Haiyoh. Correct?

klee

bloody chinaman pump n dump con stk

58 seconds ago

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-02 10:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-02 10:30 | Report Abuse

Thanks probability for pointing out my understanding on refinimg margin swap notional value might be wrong.

I give up on this HRC forum which have become very toxic.

But one thing for sure HRC and Petronm will still report a profitable Q3

Adios.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 10:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by klee > 2022-09-02 10:32 | Report Abuse

Hahaha ular pandai.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 10:32 | Report Abuse

I totally understand sslee

will ping you on messenger some other better day :)


Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 10:30 AM | Report Abuse

Thanks probability for pointing out my understanding on refinimg margin swap notional value might be wrong.

I give up on this HRC forum which have become very toxic.

But one thing for sure HRC and Petronm will still report a profitable Q3

Adios.

Posted by rr88 > 2022-09-02 10:33 | Report Abuse

Tp revised to 4.50.
Triangle base is actually at 5.29, not 5.20.

Posted by klee > 2022-09-02 10:33 | Report Abuse

Ya sslee,you better give up on i3.Who want invest long term now?Haiyoh.Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 10:34 | Report Abuse

Kakijudi main aim is to win the judi and not listen to all the facts and figures that only apply to investors leh. You cannot blame kakijudi want to judi HY also leh. Very volatile and the daily range is very good for judi leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by kl_guy > 2022-09-02 10:36 | Report Abuse

lucky sell early yesterday ...."buy on rumor sell on fact" work everytime.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 10:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 10:37 | Report Abuse

Congratulation to you. Haiyoh. Correct?

kl_guy

lucky sell early yesterday ...."buy on rumor sell on fact" work everytime.

12 seconds ago

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-02 10:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 10:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 10:41 | Report Abuse

HY VWAP 5.02 and now trading at below VWap price. Not very good like this leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-02 10:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 10:48 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by param1 > 2022-09-02 10:49 | Report Abuse

ha ha ha story over next quarter la

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 10:55 | Report Abuse

Today many ppl sapu 4.88-4.91 price leh. Mau lari at top one kah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by heng420 > 2022-09-02 11:01 | Report Abuse

MM’s jibet gatai is back

Posted by heng420 > 2022-09-02 11:02 | Report Abuse

where is your partner jerrycomic

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 11:04 | Report Abuse

Those around 4.20 pickup one many pun sudah lari kah. If mau balik to square one nanti apa margin pun takda leh. Usually it will happen leh. Many also scare leh. Want to run road first leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-09-02 11:07 | Report Abuse

Tunggu berita lagi daripada OPEC + samasa ada mereka akan meningkat pengeluaran minyak atau tidak...

Posted by James_Bond > 2022-09-02 11:17 | Report Abuse

Many brave warriors or fake buy queue?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 11:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 11:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by joecool32 > 2022-09-02 11:25 | Report Abuse

Just curious, isn't the hedge loss suppose to cover the sudden dip in crack margin? The increases is hedge losses is partly due to increased sales volume as well. In other words, In other words , the hedge losses recognised in Q2 is what will protect the margin in Q3. The margin won't be fantastic but the growth in volume should help.
Monday & Tues = Should be fearful when others are greedy;
Today = should be greedy when others are fearful? Could be too early in the bloodbath...........

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 11:26 | Report Abuse

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Be extremely very careful on hengyuan loh!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 11:27 | Report Abuse

Hedging is also gambling. This one correct also leh. Haiyoh. Correct?



i3lurker

Hedging is usually from NYMEX

Hedging <=> exactly like share gambling

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 11:29 | Report Abuse

Corollary

you borrowed USD90,000 - USD18,000 = USD72,000 borrowings

the swap rate = 72,000 X 2.5/100 /365 = USD4.95 per day charged to your account

after the Volcker FCUK , new swap rate 72,000 X 20/100 /365 = USD39.45 per day charged to your account

comprende?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 11:29 | Report Abuse

Walao. Dont so black heart give final verdict Banklap or PN17 leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


stockraider

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Be extremely very careful on hengyuan loh!

22 seconds ago

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-02 11:32 | Report Abuse

Raider cannot simply say loh!

Just be careful & be very suspicious & careful of hengyuan owner & management loh!

Posted by Min9088 > 2022-09-02 11:35 | Report Abuse

what the hell why ularsawa is here. Go back to your top glove la. you damn 7 noisy.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 11:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-02 11:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 11:40 | Report Abuse

only 2 types in NYMEX
physical settlement or cash settlement

the Crack Rate gamblings are all cash settlement,
its a gambling tool, the Market Makers are usually Silverman Suck and Diu Bank

Finished Products hedging are also physical or cash settlement.

no way HRC can do physical settlement at Cushings Oklahoma USA => its all cash settlement

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 11:40 | Report Abuse

Ular mari lepaking mah. Why so many can lepak at here and Ular kenot lepak kah. Unfair lah. Open forum leh. Not pvt forum lah. If you not happy then you can dont read mah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Min9088

what the hell why ularsawa is here. Go back to your top glove la. you damn 7 noisy.

3 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 11:45 | Report Abuse

Ular OKU leh. Until now pun dunno apa they all talking about leh. Only know saham is red lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Jerichomy

Klee apa khabar

klee
Hahaha ular pandai.
1 hour ago

4 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 11:48 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh why you not go back Bungaraya shouting limit up leh. Explosive QR with 3 sen divvy mah. |Correct?

MoneyMakers

Agreed Ular go back to ur TG bbq

Nobody wanna see ur nonsense reply every post aiyoyo

12 seconds ago

Posted by James_Bond > 2022-09-02 11:48 | Report Abuse

European countries suffering from inflation due to Energy Crisis. US will try the best to bring down the energy costs by all means to help European countries to stand against the Evil!

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 11:51 | Report Abuse

With that, two key Question remains to the experts in accounting to Answer. Appreciate anyone's input.


QUESTION 1
..........

@Rabbit2,

Could the cash flow hedge and the cost of hedging of HY in Q2 results not related to the refining margin at all?

My feeling is that it could be purely related to their USD DEBT and interest charges due to exchange rate movement.

https://vinodkothari.com/2022/02/guide-to-hedge-accounting-under-ind-as-109-ifrs-9/


Accounting of Cashflow Hedges

A cash flow hedge is a hedge of the exposure to variability in cash flows that

1 - is attributable to a particular risk associated with a recognised asset or liability (such as all or some future interest payments on variable rate debt) or a highly probable forecast transaction or a firm commitment in respect of foreign currency and

2 -could affect the statement of profit and loss. An example of a cash flow hedge is the hedge of future highly probable sales in a foreign currency using a forward exchange contract. Another example of a cash flow hedge is the use of a swap to change the future floating interest payments on a recognised liability to fixed rate payments.





QUESTION 2:
...........

How can HY refining margin hedging cause the reported cash flow hedge or the cost of hedging of 800 million?


HY Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) - NOTIONAL VALUE value is only around 250m USD. This is not the margin itself but the CONTRACT SIZE, i.e barrels x hedging price/brl. Refer below link:

www.wallstreetmojo.com/notional-value/

Notional Value = Total Units in the Contract * Spot Price

As such their hedging quantity of crude or refined products in barrels should be about 3.5 million barrels only (about a month throughput) thats is used for securing current margins as per MOPS every month or two.

If you see HY Q2 gross profit before the derivative losses as described in section A10 (of about 500 million) it is about 1.4 billion exactly as i had predicted earlier using above model as per my last article.


Such small volume of hedging cannot produce the Cash flow reserve or the Cost of hedging (~800 million) we have seen on Q2 22 results of HY. Simply no way.


Further argument why RMSC is not the hedged margin but the contract size?
.............................

Refer Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) notional value at end of Dec 2019 (USD 357 million).

At that time in 2019, the refining margin is barely 5 USD/brl. If you use your formula, the volume of barrels hedged would be:

= 357 million / (5 USD/brl)
= 71 million barrels

That is equivalent of 7 qtr sales volume throughput of hengyuan, i.e 2 years throughput had been hedged?

This cannot be possible.

Which company can hedge their refining margin hedge swap for next 2 years sales volume in advance?

If that is possible, they can hedge June 22 exceptional margin of 50 USD/brl for next 2 years then. They can then ensure they can clear their long term debt and even buy a new refinery.

Why not 4 years, whats stopping?

My understanding is HY need to be able to fork that notional value of the commodity during maturity and as such requires huge cash - equivalent to 2 years sales volume - that's around 30 billion.

What happens if the refinery breaks down for 6 months - what guarantee the hedge contract provider has from HY?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 11:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 11:54 | Report Abuse

US say one helping EU leh but actually pun earned alot from EU leh. Very bad leh profiting from allies leh. Haiyoh. correct?

James_Bond

European countries suffering from inflation due to Energy Crisis. US will try the best to bring down the energy costs by all means to help European countries to stand against the Evil!

3 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 11:55 | Report Abuse

Cinaman very secretive one leh. Wel known mah. Haiyoh. Correct?



BobAxelrod

Instead, I believe the company should give a clear picture of the financial standing to clear the air via a Press release.
Alternatively, someone should write or ring them for an answer directly.

No point to keep guessing and beating around.

1 minute ago

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 11:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 11:58 | Report Abuse

as I said before

Crack rate gamblings are all cash
say you buy USD20.00 crack rate at 1,000 barrels per contract size lot

If I am the Market Maker at Morgan Stanley <=> I take your bet and pocket USD20.,000.00 X 0.2 margin = USD4,000.00
If you have an account at Morgan Stanley you can apply to be Market Maker and receive money from HRC
so HRC monies enters your pocket.
wink wink

at end of contract period ..........either you pay me or I pay you.

its a Gambling bet between Market Maker (You lah) and the Hedger (HRC)
so better pray HRC makes silly bets

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 12:00 | Report Abuse

HY very bad in gambling leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


i3lurker

as I said before

Crack rate gamblings are all cash
say you buy USD20.00 crack rate at 1,000 barrels per contract size lot

If I am the Market Maker at Morgan Stanley <=> I take your bet and pocket USD20.,000.00 X 0.2 margin = USD4,000.00
If you have an account at Morgan Stanley you can apply to be Market Maker and receive money from HRC
so HRC monies enters your pocket.
wink wink

at end of contract period ..........either you pay me or I pay you.

its a Gambling bet between Market Maker (You lah) and the Hedger (HRC)
so better pray HRC makes silly bets

22 seconds ago

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 12:04 | Report Abuse

dun confuse yourself

the contracted amount and total no. of contracts for Crude, Crack Rate and Products are the total HRC exposure assuming all becomes zero

theoretically all prices can become zero since its market forces
and people may need cash immediately so dump all 100% irrespective of price (example Forced Sale)

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 12:12 | Report Abuse

Then you can say HY cutloss instead of wait till zero kah. No one know how HY boss betting on this derivative lah. Cakap until saliva dry pun useless lah. Focus on the share price more important now leh. Red if continue red then all your effort talking about all this hedging pun down to the drain lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 12:15 | Report Abuse

Nicholas William Leeson[2] (born 25 February 1967) is an English former derivatives trader whose fraudulent, unauthorized and speculative trades resulted in the 1995 collapse of Barings Bank, the United Kingdom's oldest merchant bank, for which he served time in prison for financial crime.

Between 2005 and 2011, Leeson had senior management roles at League of Ireland club Galway United. After it suffered financial difficulties, he resigned from his position as chief executive officer. He is also active on the keynote and after-dinner speaking circuit, where he advises companies about risk and corporate responsibility.