Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-03 07:58 |

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Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-09-03 07:58 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 07:59 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 08:00 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh HY is refinery leh. Oil price up good to HY kah. Haiyoh. Correct?

bullmarket1628

Walaoeh, oil price continue it’s uptrend !
Brent closed at=> $93.02 +0.66 +0.71 %

Like that next Monday Hengyuan will be limit up already liao lah !

Heng ah, Ong ah, Huat ah !

39 seconds ago

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-03 08:07 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-03 08:08 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 08:11 | Report Abuse

The interest part is if you had already hedged your X volume refining margin at USD12 to 20 for the next one year, and then the spot/refining margin collapse to negative range for the next one year. Then you can actually stop the plant for one whole year to prevent physical loss in buying crude and selling finished product and pocket the gain in refining margin swap contract when the contracts mature.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 08:29 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 08:31 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 08:32 | Report Abuse

HRC do a big volume long hedging contracts.

Petronm with Refinery + marketing most likely just do a one month commodity swap to protect the inventories value and a small volume of margin swap contracts
Note: It will take one month (crude purchase-delivery- processing- finished product- sold)

And petronm used a different accounting standard where the profit before tax already included in derivatives realised and unrealised gain/loss.

So if Petronm Q2 you take out the unrealised derivaties loss of RM 166,799,000.
The PBT should be RM 240,671,000 + RM 166,799,000.

By the way the unrealised derivatives loss of RM 166,799,00O is added back to operating cash flow.
YTD 2022 the Petron M operating profit before changes in working capital is RM 637,742,000.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 08:34 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 08:50 |

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Posted by tehka > 2022-09-03 08:52 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh, actually no need to fight lah. Let's give it a few weeks and look at the price again loh! Then we know who is talk fact and who is tokok loh! Correct?

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-09-03 09:08 | Report Abuse

high oil price is no good to hengheng. Mogas 92 has nothing to do to hengheng.

Hengheng product is diesel+ jet fuel + mogas 95 & 97 . Only uncle kyy using mogas 92 to pump his car. Anyone here using 92?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 09:15 |

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Posted by kebling98 > 2022-09-03 09:26 | Report Abuse

Walaoeh, mogas 92 crack continue it’s uptrend !
Crack closed at=> $4.066 +415%

Like that next Monday Hengheng will be limit up already liao lah !

Copy paste hahaha

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 09:28 | Report Abuse

No lah!
Raider do not lose money on Hengyuan mah!
The main point.....is raider realized it is mistake....to promote hengyuan heavily loh! (just like raider realized netx got corporate governance issue, despite making money raider refuse netx mah.....this is good practise mah!}
Hengyuan owner got corporate governance issue...it is not like, what u think mah!

The risk are extremely high loh!
Hengyuan borrowing & speculative hedging position exceed Rm 2.8b and its hedging losses exceed Rm 1 billion mah!

Btw....HY claim is hedging...is it really hedging ah ?
It could be excessive gambling loh!

The most dangerous part is HY consistent loss in its hedging endeavor mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by Ahahah > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

@stockraider you promoted so strongly on HY in year 2017, you must lost a lot of money through this counter.
Posted by Ahahah > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

@stockraider you promoted so strongly on HY in year 2017, you must lost a lot of money through this counter.

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-09-03 09:31 | Report Abuse

Investors please use your mind lah. Your use what gas to pumps your lovely car? 92? 95 or 97? So why concern mogas 92 crack? Hengheng no buat mogas 92 product at all.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 09:34 | Report Abuse

Memang betul mah!
When crack spread was trending up USD 20 to USD 30....these probablity & sslee are singing praises on Hengyuan, but when Crack spread was negative at USD 0.5.....they try to disown the arguement...that Crack Spread is important mah!

This is hypocrisy & double standard mah! Lu tau boh ?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Wrong hedging will cause the company suffer huge losses leh. If the mgmt incompetent suffering losses from hedging and the shareholders suffer leh. Just like Nick Leeson caused Barings Bank shareholders lost everything when declared banklap leh. It is a very serious case and someone need to answer to the shareholders. Take responsibility and at least sack the person that caused the derivative losses leh. Simple as that lor. Who made the decision one should resign and take responsibility mah. Now causing saham turun double digits leh. A lot of losses for shareholders to bear leh. Minority also shareholders mah. Why SSLee takda write to the CEO and cakap I3 punya shareholders very unhappy pasal saham takda limit up but turun double digits after released the QR leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Uncle Koon only highlighted the crackspread same as promoter highlighted the crackspread when hit record high mah. Same same cerita crackspread leh.Up you all can blow water. Down Uncle Koon also can blow water mah. You all teach Uncle Koon one mah. Cakap he know nothing about refinery leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 09:38 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 09:41 | Report Abuse

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 09:41 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 09:42 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 09:42 |

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Posted by kebling98 > 2022-09-03 09:44 | Report Abuse

Recent drop is due to 92 crack drop to negative and the misunderstanding of the Q2 hedging loss
Thanks for let me check in again below 5. Will accumulate more next week so that I have money to buy some supplements to uncle. His eye not very well recently. He cant distinguishes 2 & 5

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 09:48 | Report Abuse

Just look at the balance sheet lah!
Bcos of the hedging losses.....Rm 2.8 borrowing are added to hengyuan debts mah!
This is debt is equivalent to Rm 9.80 per hengyuan share loh!

Can't u see the danger looming leh ??

Btw very long term fixed price contract exceeding 3 yrs is dangerous mah! SSLEE boss in the palm olein industry....refuse to write such a contract loh....why ? It is common sense mah!

Posted by Sslee > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

HRC do a big volume long hedging contracts.

Petronm with Refinery + marketing most likely just do a one month commodity swap to protect the inventories value and a small volume of margin swap contracts
Note: It will take one month (crude purchase-delivery- processing- finished product- sold)

And petronm used a different accounting standard where the profit before tax already included in derivatives realised and unrealised gain/loss.

So if Petronm Q2 you take out the unrealised derivaties loss of RM 166,799,000.
The PBT should be RM 240,671,000 + RM 166,799,000.

By the way the unrealised derivatives loss of RM 166,799,00O is added back to operating cash flow.
YTD 2022 the Petron M operating profit before changes in working capital is RM 637,742,000.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 09:50 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 09:51 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 09:56 | Report Abuse

"Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!
Petron reported a positive position after flowing thru its hedging losses to the P&L top line, this should be what hedging operation should be all about by smoothing out its profitability but not in hengyuan case with losses run into billions ?"

There is no justfication Hengyuan valuation should be supported due to wrongful reporting of its profit & huge losses of its derivative mah!

Let Raider summarised hengyuan position loh!

1.HRC Q2 for 30-6-2022
2. HRC 6mts 30-6-2022

1a.Profit/{loss} attributable to shareholder............Rm 667m
1b. Profit/{loss? comprehensive to shareholder...Rm {412}m
number of shares Rm 300m
1a. Eps Rm 2.22
1b Eps Rm {1.37}

Culmulative 6m
2a, Profit attributable to shareholders..... Rm 714m
2b. Profit comprehensive income shareholders Rm (475m}

2a, EPS Rm Rm 2.38
2b. Eps Rm {1.58}

Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!
Petron reported a positive position after flowing thru its hedging losses to the P&L top line, this should be what hedging operation should be all about by smoothing out its profitability but not in hengyuan case with losses run into billions ?

But hengyuan do not loh! It keep the hedging loss as no impact to EPS loh!

If we standardised the treatment like Petron....Hengyuan will be reporting huge losses loh!

Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!

Thus Hengyuan performance appear very bad compare to Petron loh!

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 10:01 | Report Abuse

I have refined HRC "almost Guaranteed" future punya losses to quite close.
If not almost guaranteed why did HRC borrow RM5 Billion?

'and discovered why HRC wanted to borrow RM 5 Billion" coz those figures quite match

using latest QR data

@10% Interest rate
[quite likely by all experts from US Investment Banks as interviewed by Bloomberg]

=> assume 80% borrowings per Contract
=> assume 3 years hedged

for sales 100% Hedged the swap rates will cost
3 years Total => RM2.856 Billion
average per year => RM 0.952 Billion

for purchases 100% Hedged the swap rates will cost
3 years Total => RM2.52 Billion
average per year => RM 0.840 Billion


Conclusion =>
at very likely 10% US Interest Rate the 3 Year Total Additional Losses from Hedging = RM5.4 Billion

at very possible 20% Volcker Fcuk US Interest Rate the 3 Year Total Additional Losses from Hedging = RM10.8 Billion

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 10:03 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 10:05 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 10:12 | Report Abuse

my mental Dragon balls[park] was RM5 Billion losses by HRC already

today my excel spreadsheet confirmed RM5.4 Billion losses by HRC = matches RM5 Billion borrowings by HRC to cover sinkhole aka losshole

personally I think RM10.8 Billion losses by HRC is quite likely and cannot be ruled out.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 10:18 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 10:25 | Report Abuse

Why you kutuk kyy

kebling98
Recent drop is due to 92 crack drop to negative and the misunderstanding of the Q2 hedging loss
Thanks for let me check in again below 5. Will accumulate more next week so that I have money to buy some supplements to uncle. His eye not very well recently. He cant distinguishes 2 & 5

38 minutes ago

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-03 10:26 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 10:27 |

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Posted by tehka > 2022-09-03 10:29 | Report Abuse

Lai ular, open judi table. Ular say Monday limit up, limited up, limit down or limited down?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 10:30 | Report Abuse

HY and Hiap teck are 43.5 cents and 27.5 cents in 2 September 2022

HY and PetronM sure jadi like AYS and Hiap Teck

Kakaka Good Luck

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 10:31 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 10:31 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-09-03 10:35 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 10:37 | Report Abuse

otb
I did not attack you
I just said I hoped you did not all in

since you confirmed you did not all in, then ALL IS GOOD!

Cheers !!!

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 10:37 | Report Abuse

I think OTB likely to cut some losses in HY...

If he hasnt cut, then all his followers shall be more worried.....

Posted by OTB > 2022-09-03 10:38 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-03 10:38 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 10:39 | Report Abuse

Go go ilurker

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 10:39 | Report Abuse

otb
I also said you can quite likely can triple your capital ...

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 10:41 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-09-03 10:42 |

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