Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 13:51 | Report Abuse

sslee

i3lurker becomes market maker
and
DEALS many lots of Crack Profits to sslee who SOLD all up at USD20.00
sslee all in
coz sslee thinks its a good deal
because sslee SOLD
it means any price rises is a LOSS case.

i3lurker then arranges for sslee clone in alternate parallel universe to buy
sslee clone pumps all Tulip Cracks Contracts to USD50.00 each
real sslee cannot pay the margin call in those Tulip Contracts.
real sslee account collapses

when contract matures sslee clone in alternate parallel universe arranges for price to close at USD20.00 again

QED

ps
whether sell or buy syndicates can pump or dump Tulips at their whims and fancies

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-02 13:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 13:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-02 14:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 14:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-02 14:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-02 14:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-09-02 14:19 | Report Abuse

My money hard earned money. Hmm!

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-02 14:20 | Report Abuse

Aiyaa BobAxel nonstop BS nonsense since last week

Just ignore

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 14:24 | Report Abuse

based on below hedging figures itself - using the lowest margin for gasoline of 12.665 USD/brl

Gross profit after all hedging losses, minimum possible:

= 10.7 million sales/qtr x 12.67 USD/brl x 4.48 MYR/USD
= 607 million

PBT minimum = 500 million
PAT = 375 million

EPS = RM 1.25 for Q3


Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

On 30/06/2022:
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125
Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85
USD to MYR: 4.397

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Equation:
from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133
A= 17.586
V=226,945,000/17.586
V=12,904,746

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-02 14:32 | Report Abuse

Just some correction to MM ignorance on refining yield
Petrol is made of a mix of alkanes and cycloalkanes with a chain length of between 5-12 carbon atoms. Diesel is made of alkanes with a chain length of between 12-23 carbon atoms.

Hence the % of petrol and diesel yield will depend on composition of petrol and diesel in the crude oil.
A complex refinery with distillation units, heavy naphtha continuous catalyst reformer, diesel and gasoline treater, long residue catalytic cracker like what HRC refinery:

If run on WTI Crude the yields will be:
LPG: 5.83%
Gasoline: 56.59%
Kerosene: 11.17%
Diesel: 25.44%
LSFO: 1.88%


Note: Year 2021 HRC yield as below:
LPG: 7.8%
Propylene: 3.8%
Light Naphtha: 0.1%
Petrol: 24.5%
Jet Fuel: 7.1%
Diesel: 35.1%
Fuel Oil Component: 2.7%
Additional
Catalytic Cracked Gasoline (CCG): 16.3%
Combined Cycle Oil (CCO): 2.6%
Note: I am not sure whether the long residue catalytic cracker can selectively crack the Long residue into Diesel or Petrol

SOURCES OF CRUDE
Malaysian: 52%
Far East: 7.2%
Russian : 14.7%
Middle East: 9.6%
Others 16.5%

Posted by Phoebe > 2022-09-02 14:33 | Report Abuse

I hope Mr. Zhuge is buying more since it dropped so much as compare to yesterday. Same goes with previously wehn Mr. Tandavid says hiaptek will never drop below 30c. Wish you all collect more since it is cheaper than yester years.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-02 14:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 14:42 | Report Abuse

@MM, basically what sslee is saying is you cannot increase diesel output more than current level without increasing gasoline output which explains why the margin-crack has gone low for gasoline

EU refiners - simple type, who mainly produce gasoline & fuel oil at low margin will lose incentive to refine further

basically there is no solution to the Diesel shortage unless Russian diesel is allowed to export

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-02 15:07 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo probability/sslee ofcos refineries can increase diesel output (subsequently crack spread collapse)

Think global refinery utilisation/run rate @ 100% meh aiyoyo

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 15:09 | Report Abuse

even at 80% they wont increase further coz who is going to buy their gasoline? unless they got do hedging like HY

Posted by MoneyMakers > Sep 2, 2022 3:07 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo probability/sslee ofcos refineries can increase diesel output (subsequently crack spread collapse)

Think global refinery utilisation/run rate @ 100% meh aiyoyo

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-02 15:11 | Report Abuse

Probability you waste your time explaining fact and figure to MM, MM position on Hengyuan is very clear.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:14 | Report Abuse

Never ending lagi kah. Look at saham lagi bagus lah. Look at all those numbers also cant help the share price lah. Haiyoh. No point keep arguing on all those number now. Next Qtr come again bet whether QR berapa profit leh. Bulan 7 to bulan 9 pun belum end how you all so panlai can predict berapa profit can get one kah. Must be God level lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:15 | Report Abuse

Correct Correct Correct. No point argue lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

tehka

Probability you waste your time explaining fact and figure to MM, MM position on Hengyuan is very clear.

3 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:17 | Report Abuse

Argue until cow come home pun useless mah. Harga saham pun dont bother what you all arguing mah. Like someone so panlai argue Bungaraya will limit up with explosive QR pun takda limit up pun. kutuk panlai only lah. Promote Bungaraya pun kns also lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-02 15:17 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh ular, you don't look down on our sifu god of gambler and yin yang sifu. You know of not, they predict Petron eps chun chun to the dot, hy also predict eps > 2 many weeks in advance, you know or not ular?


UlarSawa

Never ending lagi kah. Look at saham lagi bagus lah. Look at all those numbers also can help the share price lah. Haiyoh. Novpoint kee arguing all those number now. Next Qtr come again bet whether QR berapa profit leh. Bulan 7 to bulan 9 pun belum end how you all so panlai can predict berapa profit can get one kah. Must be God level lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:19 | Report Abuse

Ular respect Oil specialist know how on Oil refinery. But one thing cannot keep cakap facts and figures when you judi mah. Judi cakap apa market want mah. Why there are ppl short there are ppl long mah. Die die cakap facts and figures at the end neglected the real saham movement is against you also not good lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

tehka

Haiyoh ular, you don't look down on our sifu god of gambler and yin yang sifu. You know of not, they predict Petron eps chun chun to the dot, hy also predict eps > 2 many weeks in advance, you know or not ular?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-02 15:20 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo probability some refineries can increase diesel output & lower gasoline output

For refineries that cannot, they currently still incentivised to increase both gasoline/diesel output b’coz ‘blended’ crack spread still profitable

Eventually diesel crack spread will also collapse @ oversupply (follow Mogas)

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:21 | Report Abuse

You sound like very panlai leh. Try promote Bungaraya pun cannot iimit up also lah. Tong pun half full juga panlai kutuk lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

MoneyMakers

Aiyoyo probability some refineries can increase diesel output & lower gasoline output

For refineries that cannot, they currently still incentivised to increase both gasoline/diesel output b’coz ‘blended’ crack spread still profitable

Eventually diesel crack spread will also collapse @ oversupply (follow Mogas)

2 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:22 | Report Abuse

As usual post and remove and post again and remove everywhere you go lah. Tak bosan ke. Haiyoh. Correct?

MoneyMakers

Today bloodbath not yet ‘real’ show

Today those stuck high trying average down

If Monday continue drop - will see bigger bloodbath (margin call/panic sell/cutloss etc)

27 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:22 | Report Abuse

Same one saw countless times in a day lah. Haiyoh always kacau reban lagi kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


MoneyMakers

Same warning since rm6 last week:

HY low-floating shares @ few big sell orders (syndicate run) easily collapse 15%/20%

Either retail dump 1st or syndicate dump 1st..choose wisely

42 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:23 | Report Abuse

You pun never shut up why want ular to shut up leh. Sama sama bising mah. Correct?


MoneyMakers

Ular just shut up & go back to ur TG bbq

No need reply my post with nonsense

16 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:24 | Report Abuse

Want berapa kali post remove post and remove lah. Haiyoh. Same same mana forum pun doing the same kah. Hati jangan to black lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

MoneyMakers

Today bloodbath not yet ‘real’ show

Today those stuck high trying average down

If Monday continue drop - will see bigger bloodbath (margin call/panic sell/cutloss etc)

5 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:25 | Report Abuse

Lain post again kah. Tak boleh change sikit content meh. correct?

MoneyMakers

Same warning since rm6 last week:

HY low-floating shares @ few big sell orders (syndicate run) easily collapse 15%/20%

Either retail dump 1st or syndicate dump 1st..choose wisely

10 seconds ago

Posted by julian1981 > 2022-09-02 15:32 | Report Abuse

can keep for dividend. good stock..

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:34 | Report Abuse

Ular sudah cakap mah. You can open your mouth at here why you want to shut ular mouth at here kah. Can meh. Haiyoh. Correct?


MoneyMakers

Ular just shut up & go back to ur TG bbq

No need reply my post with nonsense

5 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:35 | Report Abuse

Divvy is not always ada 10sen leh. Past records pun occasionally pay only leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

julian1981

can keep for dividend. good stock..

1 minute ago

Posted by aa9898111 > 2022-09-02 15:37 | Report Abuse

limit down ... limit down ... limit down ...

Posted by Primeinvestor > 2022-09-02 15:40 | Report Abuse

good job money maker, monday i will take those cut loss ones at low, 4.50?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:43 | Report Abuse

Ya lah. Mau repeat berapa kali lah. Sudah basi baca leh. Correct?


MoneyMakers

Crack spread alrdy collapse

Inevitable HY eventually collapse back to original price rm3

P/s: mybe can see rm3 again after div xdate (month-end)

39 seconds ago

Posted by cedcan > 2022-09-02 15:45 | Report Abuse

Yada yada yada .... MM everyday bloodbath not sien?? What else you can see from your crystal ball besides bathing??

Posted by MoneyMakers > 18 minutes ago |
Today bloodbath not yet ‘real’ show

Today those stuck high trying average down

If Monday continue drop - will see bigger bloodbath (margin call/panic sell/cutloss etc)

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 15:47 | Report Abuse

Sudah cakap mah. You pun takda shut up how ular shut up lah. Sama sama bising lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


MoneyMakers

Ular just shut up & go back to ur TG bbq

No need reply my post with nonsense

1 minute ago

Posted by Primeinvestor > 2022-09-02 15:49 | Report Abuse

spam more! mayday may day! drop more! i want

Posted by PureBULL ... > 2022-09-02 15:50 | Report Abuse

Stock: [PETRONM]: PETRON MALAYSIA REFINING & MARKETING BHD
Aug 30, 2022 4:49 PM | Report Abuse

Program selling takes over when prices dropped below the floor levels i.e.

hy < 534
petronm < 538

BE FEARFUL 1st, on preparation mode to safety.,.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WxEqwzK0/
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

the FIGHTING is going ON.,.

IF able to pierce thru the ceiling level = ho.say.leow i.e.

hy > 562
petronm > 557

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

as stock players on a long haul, we don't need to know so so much about stock FA.,.
hard working with long calculation of future QR PAT isn't required.
focus n do this to win BIG!

Price Chart can tell tomorrow news today.,.
I heard this decades ago. n this sounds bombastic.

we must await what signal the mkt would tell us.
the price action as indicated by Darvas Box = the mandatory law to obey:

above ceiling price = ho.say to hold for big gains
below floor price = boh.chow.see

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 15:52 | Report Abuse

As a Chemist I would say its diesel.

Chemical Engineers are never sure ...

//////Note: I am not sure whether the long residue catalytic cracker can selectively crack the Long residue into Diesel or Petrol/////

Posted by Primeinvestor > 2022-09-02 15:59 | Report Abuse

futures swap contracts are disclosed for last year, as a prudent company, you will hedge one year contracts continuously, unless the forward contracts are rubbish margins, sell selll sell, faster ask they all to sell

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 16:03 | Report Abuse

No need to repost delete repost lah. Ular help you lah. No change of content pun mah. Lagi mau so susah payah lagi kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Today bloodbath not yet ‘real’ show

Today those stuck high try average down

If Monday continue drop - will see bigger bloodbath (margin call/panic sell/cutloss etc)


MoneyMakers

6,906 posts

Posted by MoneyMakers > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Same warning since rm6 last week:

HY low-floating shares @ few big sell orders (syndicate run) easily collapse 15%/20%

Either retail dump 1st or syndicate dump 1st..choose wisely

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 16:07 | Report Abuse

I believe Syndicates purposely make this HRC thingy more complicated when its actually very very simple to obscure the real reason for the HRC share dumping.

3 basic rules

Do Not Hedge [hedging is very very expensive]
Global refinery capacity is increasing, even Pengerang restarted => Heng Yuan profits under threat
Global products demand will not keep pace with refinery expansion => Heng Yuan profits under threat

Totally no reason to buy HRC shares unless you pray to Satan for some refineries to go Kaboom like Pengerang did....

:)

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 16:14 | Report Abuse

You can post why ular kenot repost kah. Unfair leh. Correct?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 28 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Ular just shut up & go back to ur TG snake bbq

No need reply my post with nonsense

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 16:18 | Report Abuse

You cakap many times already mah. Lagi mau repeat berapa kali leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 6 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Crack spread alrdy collapse

Inevitable HY eventually collapse back to original price rm3

P/s: mybe can see rm3 again after div xdate (month-end)

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 16:23 | Report Abuse

HRC is paying triple costs

I I were management of HRC,
I will just sign up long term crude supply contracts, very easy to do.
and sell products futures.
means only 1 Hedge is done.

Instead you have
Hedge crude
Hedge crack
Hedge products

looks like HRC is a gambling lottery company.

Posted by SinGor > 2022-09-02 16:27 | Report Abuse

snake has destroyed TG and many others, now HengY is destiny for destruction

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 16:29 | Report Abuse

IMPORTANT Conclusion

next week will drop more

Pengerang is on stream
Global excess refinery capacity.

=>some say crack spread has dropped, thats true coz more supply than demand mah.

=> sslee says crack spread is still good,
sslee forgot that these are Tulip prices due to HongKong uncle aunties prostitutes Ah Qua Taxi drivers buying Tulip Crack Spread mah

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 16:31 | Report Abuse

IMPORTANT Conclusion

Dragon went to TG coz smelt blood => Global Excess Gloves Supply

Dragon came to HRC coz smelt blood => Global Excess Refinery Capacity