Posted by PendekarBujangLapok > 2022-09-10 09:45 | Report Abuse

PendekarBujangLapok

Saya sudah gila sebab FCUK emak sendiri.

Posted by PendekarBujangLapok > 2022-09-10 09:45 | Report Abuse

PendekarBujangLapok

Saya sudah gila sebab FCUK emak sendiri.

Posted by PendekarBujangLapok > 2022-09-10 09:45 | Report Abuse

PendekarBujangLapok

Saya sudah gila sebab FCUK emak sendiri.

Posted by stockraiderTheLiar > 2022-09-10 09:57 | Report Abuse

@ stockraider@ stockraider
I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views .
In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below:
Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?

Posted by stockraiderTheLiar > 2022-09-10 09:57 | Report Abuse

@ stockraider@ stockraider
I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views .
In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below:
Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?

Posted by stockraiderTheLiar > 2022-09-10 09:57 | Report Abuse

@ stockraider@ stockraider
I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views .
In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below:
Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?

Posted by stockraiderTheLiar > 2022-09-10 09:57 | Report Abuse

@ stockraider@ stockraider
I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views .
In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below:
Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?

Posted by stockraiderTheLiar > 2022-09-10 09:58 | Report Abuse

@ stockraider@ stockraider
I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views .
In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below:
Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?

Posted by stockraiderTheLiar > 2022-09-10 09:58 | Report Abuse

@ stockraider@ stockraider
I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views .
In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below:
Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?

Posted by stockraiderTheLiar > 2022-09-10 09:58 | Report Abuse

Please answer YES OR NO since you are so clever , stockraider

Posted by stockraiderTheLiar > 2022-09-10 09:59 | Report Abuse

@ stockraider@ stockraider
I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views .
In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below:
Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?

Posted by stockraiderTheLiar > 2022-09-10 09:59 | Report Abuse

@ stockraider@ stockraider
I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views .
In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below:
Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-10 10:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:02 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh hedging is not wrong also lah. Only problem HY person in charge not good on hedging lah. Full stop. Talk until so lengthy also no use lah. Only hope future got TiGong popi popi they can hedge better lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-10 10:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:14 | Report Abuse

Very Important Revision mah!

Let Raider summarised hengyuan position loh!

1.HRC Q2 for 30-6-2022
2. HRC 6mts 30-6-2022

1a.Profit/{loss} attributable to shareholder............Rm 667m
1b. Profit/{loss? comprehensive to shareholder...Rm {412}m
number of shares Rm 300m
1a. Eps Rm 2.22
1b Eps Rm {1.37}

Culmulative 6m
2a, Profit attributable to shareholders..... Rm 714m
2b. Profit comprehensive income shareholders Rm (475m}

2a, EPS Rm Rm 2.38
2b. Eps Rm {1.58}

Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!

But hengyuan do not loh! It keep the hedging loss as no impact to EPS loh!

If we standardised the treatment like Petron....Hengyuan will be reporting huge losses loh!

Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!

Thus Hengyuan performance appear very bad compare to Petron loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:15 | Report Abuse

The most question for those people who invest in hengyuan is to ask whether the derivative executed are actually a faked device to siphon money from the company loh ?

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Be extremely very careful on hengyuan loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:15 | Report Abuse

Very important u should ask what is the current crack spread as at 2-9-2022?

sept 2022- USD 0.80
0ct 2022 - USD (0.70}
Nov 2022- USD (0.65}
Dec 2022= USD {0.18}

From the above trend the future crack spread trend is highly unattractive with low yield & negative yield loh!

A reasonable yield crack spread should be around USD 4 mah!

This mean Prtron future 12 mths for 31-12-2022 performance will not exceed profit of Rm 289m or EPS Rm 1.07!

Whereas HRC 31-12-2022 future 12 mths performance will not report better result of loss rm 475m or loss of Rm 1.58 per share loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:16 | Report Abuse

Correctloh....!

With Hengyuan languishing at Rm 475m losses as at 30-6-2022....very hard for it to catch up with negative crack spread loh!

Posted by MoneyMakers > 9 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Walao Oct/Nov/Dec future crack all alrdy turn (-)

Totally collapse leh


stockraider

30,326 posts

Posted by stockraider > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Raider already explain loh!

I m shocked Hengyuan has hedging of more than 3 yrs long....what type of coockkeed hedging hengyuan is doing leh ?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:16 | Report Abuse

"Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!
Petron reported a positive position after flowing thru its hedging losses to the P&L top line, this should be what hedging operation should be all about by smoothing out its profitability but not in hengyuan case with losses run into billions ?"

There is no justfication Hengyuan valuation should be supported due to wrongful reporting of its profit & huge losses of its derivative mah!

Let Raider summarised hengyuan position loh!

1.HRC Q2 for 30-6-2022
2. HRC 6mts 30-6-2022

1a.Profit/{loss} attributable to shareholder............Rm 667m
1b. Profit/{loss? comprehensive to shareholder...Rm {412}m
number of shares Rm 300m
1a. Eps Rm 2.22
1b Eps Rm {1.37}

Culmulative 6m
2a, Profit attributable to shareholders..... Rm 714m
2b. Profit comprehensive income shareholders Rm (475m}

2a, EPS Rm Rm 2.38
2b. Eps Rm {1.58}

Notice that Petron Eps attributable to shareholders & Petron comprehensive income to shareholders are the same bcos Petron treat Hedging gain & loss must flow thru the P&L which is the rightful treatment loh!
Petron reported a positive position after flowing thru its hedging losses to the P&L top line, this should be what hedging operation should be all about by smoothing out its profitability but not in hengyuan case with losses run into billions ?

But hengyuan do not loh! It keep the hedging loss as no impact to EPS loh!

If we standardised the treatment like Petron....Hengyuan will be reporting huge losses loh!

Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!

Thus Hengyuan performance appear very bad compare to Petron loh!

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:17 | Report Abuse

They already started siphoning mah....from gain of Rm 1.1b....now it is a loss of more than Rm 1.1b mah!

Do u know....more than Rm 2.2b....has just disappear ah from 2020 to 2022 todate now leh ?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:18 | Report Abuse

Correctloh....culmulative eps of Rm 6.64 from 2017 to 2022 v div Rm 0.16 loh!

Thus just earnings from 2017 to 2022 net off dividend is Rm 6.54 per share mah!
This exclude its existing nta of Rm 3.36 per share in 31-12-2016
If u include this 2016 figure.....it will be Rm 9.9 per share loh!

The current NTA of Hengyuan per share is only rm 5.25 per share mah!
Compare to Rm 9.90 per share above loh!

That means Rm 9.90 minus Rm 5.25 per share = Rm 4.65 per share in which a big part of this is due to suspect siphoning from derivative in the form of derivative losses loh!

Posted by CharlesT > 4 minutes ago | Report Abuse

HY's past year EPS

FY 2017 EPS RM3+
FY 2018 EPS Rm0.10+
FY 2019 EPS RM0.11+
FY 2020 EPS RM0.80+
FY 2021 EPS RM0.25+
FY 2022 (FH) EPS RM2.38+

VS

Div so far RM0.16

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:19 | Report Abuse

Yes if this is spend on capex....this will appear in the balance sheet & the nta per share will not disappear from Rm 9.90 per share to Rm 5.25 per share now mah!

It is likely disappear due to hedging losses loh!

Posted by Sslee > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider know how much Capex is needed to upgrade refinery to produce:
EURO 4M Petrol
EURO 5 DIESEL

Both Petron and HRC already done the Capex for upgrading and this year onward will have more cash for dividend.

Lu tau boh ?


stockraider

30,326 posts

Posted by stockraider > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

The fear is still high risk of siphoning money thru derivative loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:20 | Report Abuse

Why General Raider says Sifu Sslee analysis on Hengyuan is dangerous flawed ?

1. Looking at the balance sheet HRC hedging losses as at 30-6-2022 amounted to rm Rm 1,329M of this sum of losses Rm 1189m or 90% are contributed by just 6 mths of operation result for the latest 30-6-2022 Financial result loh!

2. HRC derivative outstanding liabilities todate is Rm 1,781M whereas is derivative assets is Rm 261m, meaning net derivative negative exposure is Rm 1,520M.....meaning the counter party should be able received payment of Rm 1,520M from Hengyuan, it is just like your share margin losses loh!

3. Then why counterparty did not ask for margin call , since HRC has a huge negative equity of Rm 1520M leh ? Yes the counter party did ask for margin top up and hengyuan already paid, this can be seen from other receivable & prepayment payout increases by Rm 1,542M for the 6 mths mah!

In otherwords, Hengyuan 6 mths operating cashflow b4 working capital changes should be Rm 939m, after less Rm 1542M derivative top up amounting to negative cashflow of Rm 603M mah!

The route to potential financial collapse of Hengyuan, are written all there in the Derivative mah!

Do not get into this trap loh! Despite Hengyuan generated record positive operation cash flow of Rm 939m, its negative cashflow from derivative losses is rm 1,542m ( which already payout as other prepayment} thus HRC negative cashflow is Rm 603M.

Most importantly, Hengyuan borrowing & derivative liabilities had ballooned to Rm 3285M from just Rm 705m as at 31-12-2021 which a staggering increase of Rm 2580M, just within 6 mths and of this sum Rm 1542M is due to margin top up of derivative losses in the form of prepayment mah!

Lu tau boh ? The rot of Hengyuan has intensified alot loh!
Be very careful mah!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:20 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh Cafe Boss supervisor weekend pun work OT kah. You better resign from the Cafe Boss lah. Pay you 7 ribu you work morning shift. You work afternoon shift. You work evening shift and you work nite shift. Then you have to work 7 days per week lagi. Wei. You are robot kah. No need rest kah. No need eat kah. No need shower kah. Only hisap rokok enuf kah. Robot pun need to rest lah. You better resign lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:20 | Report Abuse

All these Hengyuan info Raider presented is supported by fact & figures mah!

U can check it for yourself, since Raider had given direction where to Check Mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:21 | Report Abuse

Yes Hengyuan can hedge....but they should do it modestly like Petron, even after netting the hedging losses, net effect is still positive profit for Petron...this is what a hedging should be...smoothing the profit every qtr loh

But what Hengyuan is doing is big gambling & siphoning money loh!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by Sslee > 6 minutes ago | Report Abuse

MoneyMakers Only probability/sslee think HY hedging always perfect/profitable
Dunno whether they blind or what - never see HY soo many prev QR got losses

MM can you read english?
If you can that don't put your word into my mouth and read again and again :

What I say is to be objective and look into Q2 result.
Page 8
The profit/(loss) before taxation is arrived at after crediting)/charging
Fair value loss on derivative financial instruments:
Q2: RM 438,758,000. Cumulative RM 870,964,000
Page 5
Operating profit before changes in working capital RM 939,171,000

So in H1 the realised fair value loss on derivative is RM 870,964,000 and HRC still able to make an operating profit before changes in working capital RM 939,171,000.

Hence should you be very afraid of the unrealised losses RM1,079.600,000 marked to market (as on 31/06/22 when the crack spread was at the peak) outstanding derivatives till proclaims that HRC will have cash flow problems and going to bankrupt like Serba or AAX or CapitalA.

In other word if HRC do not do hedged by now H1 sale volume of about 21 million barrels should have gave them a super fat profit before tax of RM RM 870,964,000 + RM 982,535,000
Or a profit before tax of about USD 20 per barrel.

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-10 10:21 | Report Abuse

No naysayers or anyone against the stock but strong anti-scammers and spammers here. Exposing those pumping unfounded figures and self cut and paste what nonsense numbers. Long overdue and must bash to the max and protecting those who still care to read. Again it's 4.60 and not 7.60.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:22 | Report Abuse

Wei you want HY pecah rm4.20 kah. Nanti Ular mau hide in the cave leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


Lu tau boh ? The rot of Hengyuan has intensified alot loh!
Be very careful mah!

2 seconds ago

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:22 | Report Abuse

Thats why i say....u cannot inferred from SSLEE simply guessing by trying very to fit into the margin for gasoline loh!

Dynamic can or has change mah!
Like type of crude, processes of refinery and management intention to churn type of product mix etc loh!

Any misuse of assumption & data will derail this SSLEE very crude model mah!

The possibility of SSLEE model is highly inaccurate is possible mah!

Lu tau boh ??

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:24 | Report Abuse

They are promoters leh. You cannot stop them from promote leh. Same as you are penkritik leh. They also cannot stop you from kritik leh. Stock market leh. A place to judi mah. Price not up how to earn lah. Unless you are shortist lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


sharemarket21

No naysayers or anyone against the stock but strong anti-scammers and spammers here. Exposing those pumping unfounded figures and self cut and paste what nonsense numbers. Long overdue and must bash to the max and protecting those who still care to read. Again it's 4.60 and not 7.60.

8 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:27 | Report Abuse

This is not a bad suggestion also. Any price rebound could be not sustainable as many want to take profit and many want to exit also. Sifu always cakap one not wrong to take profit as this is your right lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


qqq12345

Looking at the data above for crack spread from raider...any rebound is a sell...the next results should be disastrous.

45 seconds ago

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:27 | Report Abuse

WHY THE HEDGING COMPUTATION OF SSLEE & PROFITABILITY WOULD NOT WORK ?

Ask yourself this loh!

If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!

If that is highly successful....Raider will repeat the process again & again and become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!

Then why we need a refinery leh ?? Thus we do not really need a physical refinery, just do repeating hedging trade will be highly successful mah!

No need mah.....just do hedging loh.....if so profitable......and sure profit mah!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:34 | Report Abuse

Remember any hedging gain due to the hedge will be use to covered more than Rm 1.3b hengyuan unrealized hedging losses mah!

Thus with current physical low crack spread.....the low margin will unlikely to translate into good operating profit for hengyuan in q3 loh!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-10 10:36 | Report Abuse

Everyone can promote and comment in wet market room but also get ready with bashing when the current share price landed That is how it works. Or else why bother coming here? To profit from someone losses and of course to get the best leisure. Dont be coward and must dare to comment.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:37 | Report Abuse

As Raider says...it is unlikely to be so simple like SSLEE & Probability claim loh!

WHY THE HEDGING COMPUTATION OF SSLEE & PROFITABILITY WOULD NOT WORK ?

Ask yourself this loh!

If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!

If that is highly successful....Raider will repeat the process again & again and become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!

Then why we need a refinery leh ?? Thus we do not really need a physical refinery, just do repeating hedging trade will be highly successful mah!

Thats why i say....u cannot inferred from SSLEE simply guessing by trying very to fit into the margin for gasoline loh!

Dynamic can or has change mah!
Like type of crude, processes of refinery and management intention to churn type of product mix etc loh!

Any misuse of assumption & data will derail this SSLEE very crude model mah!

The possibility of SSLEE model is highly inaccurate is possible mah!

Lu tau boh ??

No need REfinery mah.....just do hedging loh.....if so profitable......and sure profit & no risk mah!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:38 | Report Abuse

Too high then lose in hedging. Too low margin pun cannot also. Need to find the ngam ngam level baru maximise the profit. Itu level Ular dunno what level lah. Tak tau kira lah. Too complicated lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


stockraider

Remember any hedging gain due to the hedge will be use to covered more than Rm 1.3b hengyuan unrealized hedging losses mah!

Thus with current physical low crack spread.....the low margin will unlikely to translate into good operating profit for hengyuan in q3 loh!

53 seconds ago

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:39 | Report Abuse

Understanding why Prominent Previous Refinery Owner in Msia like Shell & Esso do not do hedging ?

1.The traditional business model of hardcore refinery are simple loh!
They buy physical crude & refine it to physical petrol & diesel and sell at price base on formula with reference to Crude Price, Exchange Rate & Crack Spread fixed by Msia Govt and make money mah!

They do not do fwd hedging n their natural hedge is the inventory they have in hand & their refinery to quickly efficiently process the crude to mainly Petrol & Diesel & quickly sell base on the fixed formula the msia Govt had set loh!

Now with the introduction of Hengyuan, it has modified the refinery model as follows loh!

1. Traditional Refinery Business Model as highlighted above.
2. Virtual Refinery Business Model using Paper Derivative as an investment & hedge to generate profit to be discussed below loh:

2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh!
Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?

This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:

The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?

1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh!
Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ?
a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh!
b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah!
c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah!
d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:39 | Report Abuse

Anyone pun can blow water mah. So dont complain other lah. Like many like to kutuk Uncle Koon blow water tapi takda see sendiri pun sama juga blow water leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


sharemarket21

Everyone can promote and comment in wet market room but also get ready with bashing when the current share price landed That is how it works. Or else why bother coming here? To profit from someone losses and of course to get the best leisure. Dont be coward and must dare to comment.

1 minute ago

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:40 | Report Abuse

If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!

If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!

Then why we need a refinery leh ??

The truth it is not true mah!
The deal done ....is actual speculative & unsustainable... despite fully hedge loh!

The situation & dynamics.. does not applies only to CRUDE & Petroleum mkt...but will apply to every commodity like Palmoil, Soyabean Oil, Metal etc loh!

U can do it on paper & completely hedge on paper with a reasonable profit....but the end still did not make money loh!

Thats is the reasons why....NOBLE....a large listed company in singapore dealing with trading of commodities go bankrupt despite having all the software & resources to support its trade loh!

I think sifu like SSLEE & Probability are just naive....by claiming a fully hedge position will make monies loh!

That is the reasons why ESSO & Shell refuse to do hedging loh!

Also that is the reasons why hengyuan registered a huge unrealised hedging losses on its derivative loh!
And this is beside the risk of raider fear of hengyuan intention of siphoning money loh!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-10 10:42 | Report Abuse

Then must educate AhFah son not to greedy lor. Ada earn enuf lah. Not like someone so greedy want to be millionaire again in 2022 lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


qqq12345

Pumping Hy is sinful...the higher it goes the more it falls..the higher the beta the more ahfah son loses

4 minutes ago

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-09-10 10:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-10 10:46 | Report Abuse

Complaining ? Taunting dude. You and me also commenting thrash here but dont be coward when comes to certain individual. The share price is the key factor here. Leave the old man alone. He is not here in this particular low end room to talk thrash everyday.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-10 10:48 | Report Abuse

Both Gasoline & diesel future price came down, thats why the future crack spread for Mogas 92 is so low mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by probability > 29 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Why Gasoline margin came down but its not so easy for Diesel?
............................................................

EU refinery are 90% simple type, asians like HY are mainly complex type

for simplicity they product yields are as per below:

keyword note - this output ratio cannot be altered

Simple refinery:

Posted by probability > 2022-09-10 10:50 | Report Abuse

Diesel prices are likely to climb again soon

September 8, 2022

https://www.shiplilly.com/blog/sorry-diesel-prices-are-likely-to-climb...

Cost and viability implications for the logistics industry

There are indicators that the diesel price crisis is ongoing. Such indicators belie the expectations that the economy is slowing down. Instead, demand for diesel is increasing. Some countries are already grappling with a diesel shortage. For example, many European countries are rushing to secure diesel deals because of the embargo placed on Russian barrels. As the harvest season comes to the US in the Midwest, demand for diesel is bound to rise even further. It may be that the suppliers must play a balancing act between meeting a domestic need and catering to international demand.

Diesel as an essential fuel of economic activity

John Kemp of Reuters has indicated in his oil-buying periodical that institutional traders and hedge funds are buying diesel contracts at some of the fastest rates since November 2020. In real terms, this means 9 million barrels are added to holdings. Bloomberg indicated that the demand for US diesel hit the highest level in the last half-decade. The winter is likely to bring even more demand. Indeed, the US exports of diesel reached an all-time high just last month. The biggest destinations of these exports are Europe and South America.

Other countries are putting protective mechanisms to ensure their supply of diesel. For example, India has placed exportation limits on diesel based on concerns about the adequacy of domestic supplies. Additionally, diesel from Russia has been shunned by mainstream Europe due to the existing sanctions regime that emanated from the invasion of Ukraine. That embargo will not likely end before the current year’s close. Even though there have been diesel shortages before, this one is gathering much publicity.

Government action to mitigate the risks of diesel shortages

An European Petroleum Refiners Association executive indicated at the beginning of the year that most governments were aware of the link between GDP performance and access to diesel. This was in response to the sanctions against Russia when some skeptics were worried about unintended consequences such as the current scarcity of diesel. This is no idle speculation since Russia remains the largest supplier of diesel to the European Union. It is estimated that Europe imports an average of 750,000 barrels every day from Russia, a matter of necessity given the freight transportation, heavy industry, and economic impetus.

Setting the sanction aside for the moment, the diesel market has generally experienced a much faster demand rebound than supply growth following the Covid-19 pandemic. That pattern was reflected in the market for crude oil. Some experts have noted that the demand growth has slowed down recently on the back of an expectation of a global downturn. This would make sense given the central bank rate increments and inflationary pressures discouraging buyers. However, that pattern only lasted for a relatively brief period to be replaced by an even greater demand for diesel.

An inventory that is lacking in reliability and completeness

A columnist for Reuters has noted that US crude oil inventories were failing to fully recover, despite the fuel price inflation. The implication is that the tightness of the fuel markets and the consequent price elevations will likely continue for the rest of the year. The Department of Energy in the USA reported this was that US oil inventories had fallen to their lowest levels since 1985. Indeed, the strategic petroleum reserve now stands at only 469.9 million barrels. As a result, the problems and worries are spreading to the rest of the world.

Some African countries, for example, have reported such shortages in fuel and drivers, impacting the supply chain in a myriad of ways. The Central African Republic is a case in point. Here, humanitarian organizations that have been active in the country recently have scaled back their engagement. A shortage of diesel has been partly blamed for this withdrawal. Cameroon is another case that has had to deal with street protests over dwindling fuel supplies and the inevitable soaring prices.

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The crises have a high potential for contagion across the globe

Brazil is another country beginning to feel the pressure of diesel shortages. Petrobras, the state-owned oil company, has warned of shortages unless the company was allowed to sell its fuels at market prices rather than subsidized rates that encourage consumption. If the traditional suppliers cannot meet the demand and there is a continued squeeze on Russian supplies, it makes for a potentially critical situation. The geopolitical context is unsuitable for turning to Russia and its associates as relief measures. Europe is also wary of its continued energy reliance on Russia, which has hampered its anti-Russia strategy in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the major consumers of diesel are demanding its steady supply despite the challenges in the market today. The economic recovery in the post-Covid 19 era is bound to be problematic due to the increasing demand for diesel beyond the expectations of a downturn. Economies require diesel to run, and the supply is not doing the trick. The expectations of a relief phase when sanctions against Russia are eased are not likely to come until 2023. This makes a grim reading for those in the logistics and transportation business and ordinary consumers that rely heavily on diesel.

Wrapping up

A combination of a supply squeeze and demand expansion means that diesel is in short supply. Even more worrying is the reality that the current state of the market is not likely to ease until next year. Russia is embargoed by much of Russia, and the USA must think about its domestic needs when harvests begin in the Midwest. In addition, some South American countries are rethinking their price controls on diesel and other fuels to stem demand. Meanwhile, African countries are facing civil strife and significant logistical problems due to the shortage of this essential fuel. The post-Covid 19 era is bringing new economic and political challenges that will require strong policy interventions in the medium and long run.