Why you not kpc meh. Pergi mana pun cakap the company mau banklap. Wei. Can list out the company you said want banklap one and really banklap one lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
Stop whinning like a wolf now. Should have listened and sold above 7 or 6 or another round 5.50. Why so stubborn ? Now you can't accept taunting. Serve you right dude. Or else how we can pounce on your misery and make profits from your paper losses. Now find a way to crack the next opportunity instead of cracking what nonsense figures.
You sound like kuat MHP also leh. After happened already can talk like b4 it happen leh. Then can you tell what is the future 3moons HY price from now. Can or not. If can then join the competition leh. Dont MHP after it happen leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
sharemarket21
Stop whinning like a wolf now. Should have listened and sold above 7 or 6 or another round 5.50. Why so stubborn ? Now you can't accept taunting. Serve you right dude. Or else how we can pounce on your misery and make profits from your paper losses. Now find a way to crack the next opportunity instead of cracking what nonsense figures.
Nah. Check back and no one talk nonsense here. Many rounds, if far away even a few times, must preach silent is golden and disappear from the room permanently. That's rules in each room ethic. Even it's street wet public room.
Frankly speaking lah. Forum is for lepaking lah. All also lepaking more mah. You see other forum also same mah. Haiyoh. Correct?
sharemarket21
Nah. Check back and no one talk nonsense here. Many rounds, if far away even a few times, must preach silent is golden and disappear from the room permanently. That's rules in each room ethic. Even it's street wet public room.
Ular pun kesian the Cafe Boss punya supervisor leh. Sudah asked him to resign but he still cakap he very happy working for his Cafe Boss leh. Pagi pun kerja. Tengah Hari pun kerja. Petang pun kerja. Malam pun kerja. OT pun takda. Ini macam dapat 7 ribu pun underpaid lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
So how. After heated debate so far. Any conclusion esok can green or red leh. Anyone want to predict or not. Dont just promote or kritik without betting tomolo will green or red leh. Ular predict tomolo can green lah. Bcos Ular sudah jadi part time promoter leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
Naysayer mana ada so good intellectual lah. Some even not passed spm one leh. They more like kaki pukul working as macai macai leh. Most probably from IB one lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
probability
@ular...kindly advocate for naysayers to be decent and promote intellectual discussion...
HY is actually a very welcoming friendly forum of promoters..
Bcos Ular TP PE 1.5 to 2.0 mah. price from 4.20 to 5.96 mah. If the price pecah 4.20 then Ular malu lah. So have to be part time promoter to prevent it from happen lah. So simple reason only lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
Cost and viability implications for the logistics industry
There are indicators that the diesel price crisis is ongoing. Such indicators belie the expectations that the economy is slowing down. Instead, demand for diesel is increasing. Some countries are already grappling with a diesel shortage. For example, many European countries are rushing to secure diesel deals because of the embargo placed on Russian barrels. As the harvest season comes to the US in the Midwest, demand for diesel is bound to rise even further. It may be that the suppliers must play a balancing act between meeting a domestic need and catering to international demand.
Diesel as an essential fuel of economic activity
John Kemp of Reuters has indicated in his oil-buying periodical that institutional traders and hedge funds are buying diesel contracts at some of the fastest rates since November 2020. In real terms, this means 9 million barrels are added to holdings. Bloomberg indicated that the demand for US diesel hit the highest level in the last half-decade. The winter is likely to bring even more demand. Indeed, the US exports of diesel reached an all-time high just last month. The biggest destinations of these exports are Europe and South America.
Other countries are putting protective mechanisms to ensure their supply of diesel. For example, India has placed exportation limits on diesel based on concerns about the adequacy of domestic supplies. Additionally, diesel from Russia has been shunned by mainstream Europe due to the existing sanctions regime that emanated from the invasion of Ukraine. That embargo will not likely end before the current year’s close. Even though there have been diesel shortages before, this one is gathering much publicity.
Government action to mitigate the risks of diesel shortages
An European Petroleum Refiners Association executive indicated at the beginning of the year that most governments were aware of the link between GDP performance and access to diesel. This was in response to the sanctions against Russia when some skeptics were worried about unintended consequences such as the current scarcity of diesel. This is no idle speculation since Russia remains the largest supplier of diesel to the European Union. It is estimated that Europe imports an average of 750,000 barrels every day from Russia, a matter of necessity given the freight transportation, heavy industry, and economic impetus.
Setting the sanction aside for the moment, the diesel market has generally experienced a much faster demand rebound than supply growth following the Covid-19 pandemic. That pattern was reflected in the market for crude oil. Some experts have noted that the demand growth has slowed down recently on the back of an expectation of a global downturn. This would make sense given the central bank rate increments and inflationary pressures discouraging buyers. However, that pattern only lasted for a relatively brief period to be replaced by an even greater demand for diesel.
An inventory that is lacking in reliability and completeness
A columnist for Reuters has noted that US crude oil inventories were failing to fully recover, despite the fuel price inflation. The implication is that the tightness of the fuel markets and the consequent price elevations will likely continue for the rest of the year. The Department of Energy in the USA reported this was that US oil inventories had fallen to their lowest levels since 1985. Indeed, the strategic petroleum reserve now stands at only 469.9 million barrels. As a result, the problems and worries are spreading to the rest of the world.
Some African countries, for example, have reported such shortages in fuel and drivers, impacting the supply chain in a myriad of ways. The Central African Republic is a case in point. Here, humanitarian organizations that have been active in the country recently have scaled back their engagement. A shortage of diesel has been partly blamed for this withdrawal. Cameroon is another case that has had to deal with street protests over dwindling fuel supplies and the inevitable soaring prices.
Bearish sentiment appears to be running rampant in oil markets, with OPEC+ production cuts and supply threats from Russia unable to significantly slow the oil price slide.
Bearish sentiment appears to be running rampant in oil markets, with OPEC+ production cuts and supply threats from Russia unable to significantly slow the oil price slide.
Understanding why Prominent Previous Refinery Owner in Msia like Shell & Esso do not do hedging ?
1.The traditional business model of hardcore refinery are simple loh! They buy physical crude & refine it to physical petrol & diesel and sell at price base on formula with reference to Crude Price, Exchange Rate & Crack Spread fixed by Msia Govt and make money mah!
They do not do fwd hedging n their natural hedge is the inventory they have in hand & their refinery to quickly efficiently process the crude to mainly Petrol & Diesel & quickly sell base on the fixed formula the msia Govt had set loh!
Now with the introduction of Hengyuan, it has modified the refinery model as follows loh!
1. Traditional Refinery Business Model as highlighted above. 2. Virtual Refinery Business Model using Paper Derivative as an investment & hedge to generate profit to be discussed below loh:
2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh! Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?
This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:
The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?
1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh! Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ? a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh! b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah! c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah! d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!
If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!
If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!
Then why we need a refinery leh ??
The truth it is not true mah! The deal done ....is actual speculative & unsustainable... despite fully hedge loh!
The situation & dynamics.. does not applies only to CRUDE & Petroleum mkt...but will apply to every commodity like Palmoil, Soyabean Oil, Metal etc loh!
U can do it on paper & completely hedge on paper with a reasonable profit....but the end still did not make money loh!
Thats is the reasons why....NOBLE....a large listed company in singapore dealing with trading of commodities go bankrupt despite having all the software & resources to support its trade loh!
I think sifu like SSLEE & Probability are just naive....by claiming a fully hedge position will make monies loh!
That is the reasons why ESSO & Shell refuse to do hedging loh!
Also that is the reasons why hengyuan registered a huge unrealised hedging losses on its derivative loh! And this is beside the risk of raider fear of hengyuan intention of siphoning money loh!
Dear Stockraider, I have lost all respect for you. Just to prove your point, you can create stories out of thin air. All I did was just to look up year 2013 Shell Refinery financial reports and the information is all there. They were doing hedging and booking derivative gains & losses into their financial accounts. Next time you want to spin stories, cover your backside properly.
After 2014.....Shell no longer do hedging....why leh ??
Use your brain think lah!
Posted by vinc3362 > 4 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Dear Stockraider, I have lost all respect for you. Just to prove your point, you can create stories out of thin air. All I did was just to look up year 2013 Shell Refinery financial reports and the information is all there. They were doing hedging and booking derivative gains & losses into their financial accounts. Next time you want to spin stories, cover your backside properly.
If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!
If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!
Then why we need a refinery leh ??
No need mah.....just do hedging loh.....if so profitable......and sure profit mah!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Investing_Bursa
2,539 posts
Posted by Investing_Bursa > 2022-09-09 22:10 | Report Abuse
Haiyoh, after read one two posts from him, u knw his IQ d. Then just ignore his other postings …Haiyo , correct ?
Ularsawa
Ular doubted you never read leh. If you takda read how you can reply exactly to the point leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
Investing_Bursa
Ya I don’t even bothered reading what sharemarket21 writes. Waste of time with his ranting. Quite clearly he has a brain of an underage kid .