Posted by Saturn888 > 2014-03-07 12:14 | Report Abuse

Beautiful uncle Koon......with CPO having the leverage on current draught price....I wonder what are the contributing factor of growth apart from that. Malaysia has been the largest exporter and 2nd largest producer of CPO but I see the cheering is when CPO price goes up but we are betting base on long term and not short term however CPO price goes up and down. How often and when CPO price rises is also not certain.

My only conclusion at this point is
1. Many forestry business is hedging with. Palm oil
2. Malaysia export almost all our PO
3. If 1 and 2 is true as we move forward, the market demand is still growing . Question is what is the real demand since Indonesian export is stalling with biodiesel demand

So in short subscribe to CPO for long term, base on export increase from Malaysia esp on those 3 points and not the fluctuation of price. Fluctuation of price are for punters and traders and it's not methododical way to play this stock.

Posted by speakup > 2014-03-12 07:51 | Report Abuse

Mr Koon has been proven correct in Jtiasa. Syabas Mr Koon!

Posted by banbantan > 2014-03-12 08:36 | Report Abuse

Bro, Palm Oil stocks are cyclical stocks. If the Palm Oil price drops so will the share price and vice versa...Equation = Palm Oil price increase or decrease will determine the PBT of the Company.. the increasing exports doesn't mean the Company will make profit.... e,g, if PO price now is RM2,000 compared to RM2,890 ???? Get the picture

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-03-12 10:57 | Report Abuse

congrats on this stock reaching a PER of 115x. Even at this ridiculous height many still believe it is not speculation, lol. some even claim it to be 'the most undervalued stock'

Posted by Duitbesar > 2014-03-12 10:58 | Report Abuse

Kan abang dah cakap TSH jauh lebih baik.

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-17 11:29 | Report Abuse

I can understand haikeyila's concerns of PE115x based on earnings FYE 30 June 2013. This is the narrow way of looking at the stock, hence, many miss out on the POTENTIAL. If we used the average earnings of past 5 years (about RM100m p.a.), you will have PE of 25x (still does not mean it is the most undervalued stock)

Lets look at the stocks from a business perspective, instead of just one or two financial ratio and deduce it is a very expensive stock. FGV pays RM75,000 per hectare for Pontian mature plantation. Assuming JTiasa (semi mature with growing potential) for discussion sake, RM50,000 per hectare, and with its holding of 62,700 ha, the market value of JTiasa plantation alone is about RM3.1bil. Currently, the market cap based on RM2.68 per share @ 900m shares, it is about RM2.4 billion. Say, when the trees becomes mature in 4 years time, say the value per ha increase to RM65,000 per ha, the market value of its plantation will reach about RM4.1bil.

What about the value of his Timber business with about 200,000 ha plus? Yes, timber price, like CPO goes up and down, but surely there are value to it concession right? Perhaps we give it a value say RM0.7billion (assuming RM3500 per ha - just a guess).

So, the market cap of JTiasa ranges

LOW - RM3.8bil (RM3.1b + RM0.7b)
MID - RM4.8bil (RM4.1b + RM0.7b)

Current Market Cap - RM2.4b (@RM2.68 per share)

From a business perspective, you will see a DIFFERENT picture. Some may say its RM800m loan is high, its Net Debt/SF = 0.5 times vs TSH (net loan also about RM800) = 0.8x. I believe it is reasonable for plantation which is expanding.

CONCLUSION

No one is right or wrong, it is just a different point of view using different sets of assumptions. Otherwise, I do not see why Mr Koon put RM90m in JTiasa if he is not TOTALLY convince. Since he is a businessman, his business view will be many times sharper than and CFAs around. That is why he doesn't need to work for CFAs or MBAs or CPAs, they work for him.

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-03-17 11:59 | Report Abuse

sure..ignore 'narrow' financial ratios like earnings and debts, and use assumptions over assumptions to invest.

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-03-17 20:35 | Report Abuse

Unlike well diversified plantation co with well established downstream business, young 1 like JTiasa usually does not have consistant financial ratios coz profit is 100% dependent on CPO (commodity). It's all about timing. If u look from the business angle now is good buying opportunity. If u r a conservative financial ratios based investor, apparently it's not a good buy.

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-03-17 20:40 | Report Abuse

FFB price is almost Rm600 this month. If the price can sustain for 2yrs a large portion of the debt will b paid off.

Posted by cariyoyo > 2014-03-19 10:54 | Report Abuse

buy MPHB Capital if you do have some spare cash. A strategic alliance between MPHB Capital insurance arm with an Italian group will ensure re-rating of this counter. Target price should be RM2.65 by year end.

Posted by nsk82 > 2014-03-21 09:47 | Report Abuse

this new development on myanmar log export ban & rising CPO (compared to 2013) should boost JTiasa bottomline

------- somewhat relating competitor of JTiasa
Ta Ann Holdings - Export Ban An Earnings Boost
Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Fri, 21 Mar 09:31

With Myanmar banning log exports from 1 April 2014 onwards, we expect tropical log prices to begin increasing again from 2H2014, after any existing log inventory held at importing countries declines. We raise our FY14-15 earnings forecasts for Ta Ann by 2.5-4%, and our SOP-based FV to MYR5.00 (from MYR4.88). Maintain BUY, as we expect higher CPO and log prices to boost earnings.

Posted by lucifer > 2014-03-21 16:02 | Report Abuse

Price-Earnings Ratio is not the only thing to look at. Is like "narrow" view of some hoping to look for a man but ignored the fact that, it's boy that turned into a man. It's the potential that the wise seek.

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-03-21 17:20 | Report Abuse

Just got a feeling tat this stock is not 4 long term investment. This stock is driven by minority. Better get some profit n leave. As sifu said, "If u r not intended to hold a stock 4 10yrs, u shouldn't have it for minutes".

Posted by freeup > 2014-03-21 18:41 | Report Abuse

The botomline is whether I made money for this stock. This is more important to me.

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-23 14:24 | Report Abuse

Bottom line, if it is yours, it will be yours eventually.

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-24 15:18 | Report Abuse

actually it is an ancient chinese saying.

Posted by carson > 2014-03-25 17:39 | Report Abuse

having highest percentage of young palms therefore there will be tremendous ffb growth going forward thus the growth every investor would like to have

Posted by freeup > 2014-03-26 14:24 | Report Abuse

Grateful for Uncle Koon's recommendation. Evaluated and picked up the stock after reading his blog. Already set up trailing stop with the Broker. Am in a sure win situation for this round of up trending.

Posted by mbge7clt > 2014-03-31 11:04 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/282676-technicals-palm-oil-to-suffer-20-percent-loss-in-3-months.html

Posted by 4u2c > 2014-04-13 16:00 | Report Abuse

30 pct easy to make from tis counter......watch TSH too ....Palm oil price is going up.Our shares will as well..................Boom ! Im seing a small loss for this conter now...will buy more when it dips below 2.60

Posted by 4u2c > 2014-04-13 21:40 | Report Abuse

I think the price of cpo is higher nowadys.....ride on it ?

Posted by freeup > 2014-04-14 19:06 | Report Abuse

Should wait for a price reversal. RM2.60 is the support now.

Posted by mengcourt > 2014-04-15 13:12 | Report Abuse

Sitting at RM2.60+ for sometime already. CPO OK, now what?

Posted by sasopi87 > 2014-04-16 21:23 | Report Abuse

buy.......

Posted by nicermannson > 2014-04-16 22:27 | Report Abuse

Flies and I went to check, up 2 sen hehe

Posted by mengcourt > 2014-04-17 10:34 | Report Abuse

2 sen not enough to cover brokerage lah, bro.

Posted by yamaha02 > 2014-04-23 17:18 | Report Abuse

base on my calculation by 2022 ffb production will be 1.7 million mt per annum compared to 670k mt +- 3 x from current production

Posted by mengcourt > 2014-04-23 21:51 | Report Abuse

So we wait till 2022 to see result? mati lah!

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-25 17:30 | Report Abuse

Hmmm, the FFB growth looks familiar, where have I seen it before, oh… TSH Resources, FFB growth more than 20% p.a. for past few years. TSH has since moved up from RM1.60 to RM3.30 in about 3 years time. Not bad.

Posted by mengcourt > 2014-04-28 11:52 | Report Abuse

If that be the case, its still better than FD.

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-05-07 11:32 | Report Abuse

It is not an easy task to find a stock that double in 3 years. CAGR is about 24%. Of course, it is very tough to do it for 10,20,30 years. If you buy in 2007, you will get a 30-50% reduction in 2008. However, those who bought fundamentally strong and growth stocks, it will not be a problem. I have a feeling JTiasa can double in 3-4 years, from RM2.00 of course.

Posted by LuvLuv > 2014-05-07 14:54 | Report Abuse

Dear Friends

There is a question that I wish to raise,Jtiasa reported a significant quantities of FFB last year but only with low CPO compare to TSh with lower FFB but much more CPO.May I know the reason?Thanks.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-05-07 23:42 | Report Abuse

TSH bought a lot of fruits from other OP plantations owners. The CPO came from both their own FFB (from the OP plantations owned by them) and the FFB they bought from outside.

Posted by aunloke > 2014-05-08 09:07 | Report Abuse

If we have to wait that long to see good result why not wait for the market to make a serious correction before going in.

Posted by mengcourt > 2014-05-08 11:44 | Report Abuse

aunloke u r right

Posted by AdCool > 2014-05-08 14:20 | Report Abuse

Negative news on Palm Oil Import in China due to credit tightening. May affect the demand again.

Posted by L. C. Chong > 2014-05-15 13:52 | Report Abuse

JTIASA analysis - http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/15/jtiasafundamental-analysis-15-may-2014/

Posted by nsk82 > 2014-05-21 17:22 | Report Abuse

superb Q3 2014 (ending in 31 March 2014) results

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1628169


Profit before tax (Q3 2014) was 500 % of Q3 2013

Posted by Zambrano > 2014-05-21 17:42 | Report Abuse

EPS forecast for FY2014 is 10cents. Tis result is not good

Posted by lching > 2014-05-21 17:51 | Report Abuse

looks like plantation is ready for an rerating.

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-05-21 18:13 | Report Abuse

You like JTiasa? I am accumulating TSH.

Posted by lching > 2014-05-21 19:47 | Report Abuse

not really, just shopping arround, i hold kmloong n thinking of accumulating more.

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-05-21 22:06 | Report Abuse

In fact I have significant number of JTiasa, average at RM2.89. Bought very early when Mr Koon first recommended in 2012.

Posted by rlch > 2014-05-21 22:33 | Report Abuse

The poor result is expected as director Tiong Choon keep selling his stakes as price rises.

Posted by lching > 2014-05-22 09:44 | Report Abuse

bsngpg, you mean average cost $1.89?

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-05-22 09:48 | Report Abuse

2.89 not 1.89. I am licking my wound each day for the last two years. It is about time to recover liao.

Posted by lching > 2014-05-22 10:43 | Report Abuse

the weather condition will be on your side.

Posted by mmtalents > 2014-05-22 13:03 | Report Abuse

ask mr koon to help you out

Posted by fightingfish88 > 2014-05-22 13:22 | Report Abuse

eps only 1 sen .....high cost of depreciation ,financial cost ,expansion cost.......unless unless unless cpo 3k +++ otherwise no kangtao

Posted by Duitbesar > 2014-05-22 19:08 | Report Abuse

Abang dah cakap, dalam kelapa sawit ni labur kat TSH, ramai tak dengar. Nak juga dengar Uncle Koon rekomen JTiasa, siapa rugi?