Posted by dlsh2 > 2014-01-21 13:29 | Report Abuse

Dear All,

From the comments, I have concluded that Mr. Koon is extremely confident on Jaya Tiasa and he has proven his confidence by buying millions of Jaya Tiasa shares. This goes to show that he is confident on the counter as he is using hard-cash to buy the shares. On that score, we must take our hats off for him as he is merely trying to tell all of us that Jaya Tiasa is a good share to invest if we are interested to make money. However, if we choose not to believe his prediction, then we can choose not to buy Jaya Tiasa and invest into whatever share that we think is going to be a winner. So, I sincerely think that there is no point in ridiculing Mr. koon as he meant good in the first place.

Posted by mukah > 2014-01-21 13:42 | Report Abuse

I do partly agree with dlsh2 on his comment. I am with an organization which welcome rebuttal. For one, everybody is entitled to his opinion. For another, feedback especially from those who disagree is particularly useful, if we are to know whether we have been correct in what we say. Besides, dissenting opinions are beneficial. If we have been wrong, we can learn from those who have taken the trouble to point out our mistakes. If we have not, the rebuttal provides us the opportunity to win doubting Thomasses. Moreover, wouldn't life be so predictable and dull, if everyone agrees with everything? We would then become a society without a mind of our own.

We need to be mindful, too, that there are always more than one solution to a problem, and that we have in mind may not be the best.

Mr. Koon is strongly suggesting that Jaya Tiasa is a winner based on the various reasons already explained by him. However, I do feel that most palms planted by Jaya Tiasa are on peat soils which is a dampener on yield (provided huge amount of fertilizers are used to compensate). The terrains of Jaya Tiasa palms are rather hilly.

But again, dlsh2 was right that Mr. Koon used his money to buy Jaya Tiasa. If the share goes down, then Mr. Koon will not only lose his money but credibility as a super investor as well. The odds are quite high on Mr. Koon. But should the price goes up, then we have ourselves to blame and Mr. Koon not going to share his winnings with us.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-21 13:43 | Report Abuse

If you use equity value per hectare, than the figure would be RM34,000 per hectare, not RM22,000 per hectare as per mr koon calculation

The ICPS cannot be redeemed nor cancelled. One day the Tiong family is going convert them and share base will balloon to 2,014m. You cannot ignore the ICPS when calculating the instrinsic value

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-21 13:44 | Report Abuse

nobody is ridiculing Mr Koon. We are here to discuss and debate in a civilized manner

Posted by speakup > 2014-01-21 14:43 | Report Abuse

Jtiasa is only for investors who buy and hold for long term, like Mr Koon. If you dont have holding power, Jtiasa is not for you.

Posted by speakup > 2014-01-21 14:51 | Report Abuse

There is no right or no wrong. Depends on whether you are short term trader or long term investor.

Posted by speakup > 2014-01-21 14:51 | Report Abuse

I am sure Mr Koon will be proven right in the long term. 1 year later, 3 years later, 5 years later.........

Posted by lotusf1 > 2014-01-21 14:57 | Report Abuse

Think of a shop that has little custmers but shop owner opens his shop patintly waiting fro right time customers ; he has to pay fr rent,electricity chrges ,other miscell.but money does come easy....u have to rewrd him for patience pwer...

Posted by Alphabeta > 2014-01-21 15:36 | Report Abuse

Valuation of oil palm plantation land has to take into consideration of many factors including its biological assets maturity profile, else we are comparing apple with orange. It takes a lot of capex to plant and wait for 4 years for the palm tree to mature.

When we invest in a business, the investment return include dividend yield for the price we paid and capital gain which depends very much on sustainable earning growth. Though JTIASA has a cash cow (timber segment) to feed its oil palm plantation expansion plan. It still need to borrow annually for its capex requirements.

There are a lot of risks involved in commodity business, risk of unfavourable weather, risk of regulatory changes, risk of competing products, financial risk etc.. to name a few. JTIASA management still need to clear a lot of hurdles before we can see the potential (as Mr Koon's see it) into reality. It all depend on your risk appetite in stock selection and whether you can afford to loose if things turn ugly especially on cyclical growth stock like JTIASA expanding with borrow monies.

I prefer stock with proven business model with sustainable earning growth (PE multiple should not run too far from earning growth), positive free cash flow (preferably using internal funds to fuel capex), low gearing, positive EVA and most important of all a dividend payout policy.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-21 16:57 | Report Abuse

@Icon8888, it doesn't matter if so-called equity value or market capitalisation is used for comparison so long as the same data type is used throughout. Therefore, if you are using your version of 'equity values', please also use the same data type for IOI and United Plantation. And if you are using the total number of shares as denominator for your equity values, then the numerator should be the net asset or total shareholders' funds (i.e. total assets less total liabilities = shareholders' funds). In this case you do not deduct debt or add liquid assets since they are already factored in.

@mukah, peat soil is one of the best soil for oil palm (the best is alkaline volcanic soil as in Tawau). Before planting they are drained and if too deep and soft, they are compacted to support the palms. Because of the detritus and other rotting plant matter in the soil, they need less fertilisers and yet gives among the highest yields. Since peat soil is in flat land, they are subject to flooding. But the water do not clog up the soil and suffocate the palm as in clayey soils since peat soils are porous and well aerated. Most well run plantation build extensive drainage systems not only for peat, but also for low-lying land. This is standard practice which also facilitates harvesting and FFB evacuation purposes especially during rainy season. Also oil-palms are very resistant to both floods and drought.

In the old days when DXP seedlings were used as planting materials instead of super clones, one Sime Darby estate in the Matang peat soil area of Taiping, yields FFB of about 29 metric tonnes/ha/yr - one of the highest yielding estates. This compared with one estate in Tawau, sited on volcanic soil and yielded about 26 tonnes/ha/yr. The average yield in those days from common laterite soil is about 20 metric tonnes/ha/yr.

Posted by iafx > 2014-01-21 17:00 | Report Abuse

this co. carries huge debt

Posted by MAMEE MONSTER > 2014-01-21 18:04 | Report Abuse

You let mee down.

Posted by benson911 > 2014-01-21 19:31 | Report Abuse

Rsawit no eye c..Keep dropping.................

Posted by atuck > 2014-01-21 21:10 | Report Abuse

for jtiasa peat soil land in sarawak, what is the reasonable yield for FFB? 20-25 mt / ha / yr?
anyone has make some forecast / projection for jtiasa profit for next 2-3 years??
If benchmark against genting plantation,
FY2012 - Net Profit of RM327mil based on FFB production of 1.47 mil MT
FY2013 - Net Profit of RM250 mil based on FFB production of 1.87 mil MT

Hence, is it reasonable to assume that jaya tiasa could achieve profit of RM200-300mil in the next 2 -3 years when its FFB production has raise to 1.0 -1.3 mil MT depending on the CPO price??

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-21 22:34 | Report Abuse

Reasonable yield nowadays depends on the clone used. Clones gives 28 to 35 metric tonnes/ha/yr of FFB. Some even 40 tonnes! Not sure if Jtiasa is using clones. Would be a surprise if Jtiasa still use seedlings.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-21 22:35 | Report Abuse

Price drop also affected by foreign funds selling. Nothing to do with the stock.

Posted by eric8168 > 2014-01-22 06:49 | Report Abuse

119 ....u are right....we have same view....dont forget besides plantation of oil palm, j tiasa is top 1 or top 2 in timber business in malaysia. valuation of timber business carries none value ? Especially recently the rm had dropped to rm 3.3 vs usd. Its earning in timber will increase this q n the next q

Posted by Stock168 > 2014-01-22 10:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Alphabeta > 2014-01-22 11:13 | Report Abuse

The toughest challenges in managing businesses successfully across a range of time frames are achieving performance and health. It is especially hard recently in turbulent economic conditions; we must give JTIASA management the credit to have the courage to create longer term value at the expense of short-term performance.

So the question is whether the JTIASA management has laid a sound foundation today for consistent and resilient growth in years to come.

As a listed entity, JTIASA management cannot afford to ignore near-term demands by investors to build confidence in its ability to realize longer term goals. Hence, a risk-adjusted balance approach is required for capital allocations to establish relationships and growth prospects into future cash flows. Deliberately ignoring current performance for long term health or vice-versa will underpin healthy growth.

The key is not to put too much into future and expose to risk of failure with high debt burden. In adverse scenario, all factors like sale volume, price, costs, asset valuation etc. will be against you. A lot of companies facing short-term financing difficulties will default and went under.

I remember during the 1998 Asia financial crisis, prior to that a lot of up and coming companies set their eyes on IPO. Majority of them borrow to expand their capacity. When the Financial Storm hit the shore, one by one went into tailspin and become part of PN17 statistic and many have liquidated.

Under the current economic and regulatory environment, a focus on short-term performance is inevitable and companies must learn how to meet next year's earnings expectations while at the same time implementing the platforms needed to deliver strong and sustainable earnings growth year after year.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-22 14:48 | Report Abuse

Yeah, good advice.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-01-22 14:52 | Report Abuse

Some good write-ups on the delicate nature of this type of business. Thx all. Have yet to take up any except CBIP.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-22 15:18 | Report Abuse

The plantation business (including rubber) has not make a loss in the 150 years of its existence in Malaysia. It is a cash business - you sell FFB or CPO/PK/PKO/PKC and by-products to the market at the market price for cash and you can sell everything you produce. It is one of the simplest business models but need management expertise and, so far, cheap manpower. The oil palm is a most durable tree, resistance to drought, floods and most tropical diseases. It gives consistent yield for at least 20 years if managed properly, unlike say soya bean. This means it gives very steady cash-flow and income. The only volatility is the market price. That's why the main objective of oil palm management, apart from optimising yields, is to minimise cost.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-01-22 15:31 | Report Abuse

Spend some time reading the pros and cons. Alpabeta, usd119, and others. Learning more from you guys before I make a move buying in some.

Posted by huat_tat_88 > 2014-01-23 09:54 | Report Abuse

I am still accumulating below 2.25... two reasons- foreign fund selloff leading to local specilators spooked & recent posts in this thread bringing the price down (I think they are accumulating like me). I am hokkien from kch and my relatives in Sibu says the flooding is near riverbanks and town area; town area drainage very bad. The hilly outskirts e.g. Jalan Salim outwards are not affected. Also, if you have been to Sibu, you will know Tiong family are Foochow. FC are the stingiest/$$$ minded people in the world. Uni fresh grad salary paid in Sibu is RM1600/mth. They will not let the plants die and be unprofitable. All this said, this is my grassroots observation only. Sorry if I disturbed people's ricebowl or any secret plans here.

Posted by dlsh2 > 2014-01-23 12:31 | Report Abuse

please be reminded that oil palm planting on peat soil land would require special and excellent drainage management in order to ensure water are properly drained. Flooding would not be of any good to palms planted on peat soil. Wilmar has put in place a policy not to purchase palm oil from peat soil planters and this would not be good for J Tiasa. In fact RSPO has endorsed a proposal that no peat soil planting deeper than 3m. This is another dampener to majority Sarawakian oil palm growers. J Tiasa would not perform unless if you are prepared to sink your money in for 3 to 5 years.

My 2 cents worth.

Posted by iafx > 2014-01-23 12:32 | Report Abuse

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/wg22/Article/index_html

Posted by slts > 2014-01-23 12:35 | Report Abuse

uncle & grandpa stock
young man no buy lol
outlook is bad

Posted by Saturn > 2014-01-23 12:36 | Report Abuse

Aunty Lillian too is right ??

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-23 15:20 | Report Abuse

I am surprised Robert Kuok's Wilmar sign onto the anti-palm oil lobby which is an extention of the soya bean oil lobby in their fight against CPO for market share in Europe and US. This is only the latest round that have been going on for decades. But I think that Wilmar will just send non-peat CPO to Europe and the rest to China, India and the rest of the world. The reaction from Indonesia and Malaysia will force its hand to back-off. All OP plantations are affected, not just Wilmar.

@dish2, ALL well-run OP plantations have extensive drainage and road systems, regardless of terrain. Yes, even including those on terraced slopes to prevent erosion and land-slides. The only thing 'special' will be the compacting required. But this also applies to non-peat swamps that have been drained. It is a one-off infrastructure expenditure that is capitalised. Flooding will not be any good for OP planted anywhere, but this only affects the fruit harvesting and evacuation. The Oil Palm will not die or become sick. Its FFB production will not fall off. FFB output reduction due to normal yearly flooding is only because the floods delay harvesting of FFB and evacuation to the mills. The plantation managers will implement emergency measures if the floods threatens to stop harvesting and evacuation of more than 3 to 5 days. Plantation management keep meticulous records of rainfall on their plantations. Emergency measures includes drains widening, new temporary roads etc. That's why plantation managers are so highly paid! They are not paid to sit on their back-sides during flooding, unlike our .....!

@slts, young men will become grandpas and uncles in no time at all i.e. if you are blessed with a long enough life. Young men starting out in life i.e. building a career, raising a family and undertaking the necessary social responsibilities should always park some of their savings in OP plantations. Also timber plantations and other medium to longer term stable income generating assets. JTiasa, like IJM before, is a good pick for this purpose. Your money grows with the company. Even RSawit is still good. However, for trading, pick those with good ups and downs in price movements, BUT in an upward trend.

Posted by lepeng85 > 2014-01-24 09:02 | Report Abuse

is time to buy in Jtiasa ?

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-24 10:58 | Report Abuse

@lepeng85, now is good time. But hold for at least medium term i.e. 3-6 months. Risk is always yours though.

Posted by huat_tat_88 > 2014-01-24 15:33 | Report Abuse

While TP is around 2.70, holders will sell at RM2.50-2.60. Still good margin to enter now. That said, I complete accumulate de- price seems to be going up beyond my buy-in level.

Posted by rlch > 2014-02-03 22:18 | Report Abuse

Why JTiasa no selling from Tiong Hiew King like RSawit?

Posted by titus > 2014-02-06 15:23 | Report Abuse

wow, Jtiasa going up. those who follow Mr. Koon call will make 15-20% already

Posted by musang_foxking > 2014-02-06 22:14 | Report Abuse

careful when koon starts throwing...this jt only up because the star said that taib sarawak stocks all down...and also related companies like wtk, jtiasa.....

while jtiasa only fell 1 cents that day...the star is very funny

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-02-09 11:55 | Report Abuse

JTiasa is heading North according to the charts. If I am not wrong, rough cup and handle formed. Hope Koon keep his mouth shut on the powers-that-be. Or say something nice about them.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2014-02-09 12:04 | Report Abuse

kikiki.. if those chart can perfectly predict the future price, then the mtdacpi suppose to reach RM 1.8 liao lo...

kikiki my chart never lie , cao cao will fail you, oii teik teik chart never fail you kikiki...

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-02-09 22:09 | Report Abuse

Then just hope Koon will play his part well.

Posted by pumas > 2014-02-10 11:59 | Report Abuse

inverted head & shoulder can be seen from this chart...there's a possibility that the downtrend has stop and it's moving north after this

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-02-10 15:23 | Report Abuse

Here comes the big push! Hope it does not become pussssss..!

Posted by pumas > 2014-02-10 15:25 | Report Abuse

as long as it stays above 2.36 then it should be ok

Posted by Stock168 > 2014-02-11 11:01 | Report Abuse

Stock168 ANOTHER UNDERVALUED STOCK

Dutaland owed 12000 ha plantation Land worth 840m (12000xrm70000 per ha), Abandant Duta Grand Hotel totalling build up to 29th floor (surpose to build 52 storey height) worth 350 m situated In Jalan Tun Ismail and Jalan Ampang KL Town, holding of 52% of 73 acres prime Land In montkiara worth 345m( 73 x rm9.1m/acre x 52%) value at 9.1m/acre consider very prudence as recent transacted price of jalan Ampang current RM 3000/ft. And a Few piece Land In Kl centre, shan alam, Melaka centre etc etc worth 200m and further more with only 80m debt, NTA=1.97. (840m+345m+350m +200m-80m debt)/840m share. besides this, year production of 125,000 ton of FFB Now trade at RM 540/ton.

Dutaland coming quarter result around 5m profit. The turnaround result come from the completion of 38 Shop Houses In Seremban by wholely subsidiary and quarter production of 25000 ton FFB. The FFB price currently trade at 540/ton campare to last quarter 400/ton. Further reduced some interest due to sold out Olympia Plaza. Good rating By analyst can be foresee.

Posted by lepeng85 > 2014-02-11 12:29 | Report Abuse

stock168, I notice Dutalnd has so many shares at around 840 million shares. It mean unless it current bussiness property or platation even are making profit, but due to its huge outstanding shares will dilute its EPS. So it is hard to expect its quarter result will be better.

The only chance which Dutalnd can attract investors is unless it sell off its assets and return back the money to shareholders. If not, then I think most investor still not interest to wait for this company.

Posted by L. C. Chong > 2014-02-11 14:46 | Report Abuse

JTIASA analysis - http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/11/jtiasafundamental-analysis-11-feb-2014/

Posted by Sylvia Ryan > 2014-02-11 15:15 | Report Abuse

Some insights on trading palm oil counters http://stockpip.com/is-it-time-to-buy-palm-oil-shares/

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-02-11 16:43 | Report Abuse

Nothing new there. @L.C.Chong, I gathered in your blog that you are new to OP operations? Also JTiasa has Timber and plywood production - both likely hot due to Japan's reconstruction after Tsunami. Kim Loong, according to its web-site, is a pure OP counter.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-02-12 10:42 | Report Abuse

Yeah WTK also good. Almost pure timber play. Current price RM1.28/share. It just planted OP and have about 12,800 ha, acquired since 2008. Nothing like the hectarage of JTiasa.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-02-12 11:55 | Report Abuse

With 40 million shares to play around, Koon literally control JTiasa share price. The sell down recently was a warning that he should not overplay his mouth on the political scene. Note his more 'moderate' tone recently.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-02-17 09:39 | Report Abuse

Wilmar stopped buying from Sarawak will be GOOD FOR SABAH. So DUTALAND will be the better buy. Make the switch to DUTALAND now. DUTALAND Is Very cheap at 50 cents. NTA over RM1.00 & all plantation in Sabah not affected.

Posted by lepeng85 > 2014-02-18 11:34 | Report Abuse

I heard newspaper said Jtiasa & Taan their land all are labelled as Low Carbon land, what does it mean low carbon land ?