Posted by iafx > 2013-12-31 13:07 | Report Abuse

very high in debt, cash level dropping fast. must at least read latest q report first b4 jumping into conclusion. may drop further to somewhere near it's naps of 1.77

Posted by Peter Lim Hang Weng > 2013-12-31 14:36 | Report Abuse

Mr Koon,

I have buy jtiasa since it corrected from the high. My average cost is 2.20, and I m heavy loaded on it. 1 thing I don't understand is, previous year, it's nta is 4 plus, suddenly it drops to 1.70 plus. It's it due to the bonus? I will appreciate mr Koon can give some thoughts on this

Posted by smartly > 2013-12-31 14:59 | Report Abuse

the sellers keep coming out at 2.05.

Posted by smartly > 2013-12-31 14:59 | Report Abuse

mr. koon big fund supporting at 2.04.

will it break this as well ?

Posted by smartly > 2013-12-31 15:00 | Report Abuse

if 2.04 break, likely to drift < 2.00. :(

Posted by smartly > 2013-12-31 15:08 | Report Abuse

selling force is very strong. wonder who is throwing ?

Posted by smartly > 2013-12-31 15:39 | Report Abuse

touches 2.04. 10 lots, indicator to go lower ?

Posted by ayamberlari > 2013-12-31 15:40 | Report Abuse

someone is unloading jtiasa !!!

Posted by tekken > 2013-12-31 15:43 | Report Abuse

me...hehe

Posted by dingding > 2013-12-31 15:45 | Report Abuse

buy or wait?

Posted by messi > 2013-12-31 15:47 | Report Abuse

head or tail

Posted by invester > 2013-12-31 15:50 | Report Abuse

can't believe that 2.04 support just break

Posted by ayamberlari > 2013-12-31 15:50 | Report Abuse

sellers from CLSA

Posted by smartly > 2013-12-31 15:52 | Report Abuse

mr koon's 2.04 support also break.

think will go lower to RM2.00.

Posted by tekken > 2013-12-31 15:56 | Report Abuse

hav u ever heard bout magnetic pole shift?

Posted by heavyth > 2013-12-31 17:10 | Report Abuse

tekken..what is magnetic pole shift ??

Posted by anbz > 2013-12-31 18:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by goldisgold > 2013-12-31 22:23 | Report Abuse

Big fund selling today, the question is who is the big buyer??

Posted by anbz > 2014-01-01 00:09 | Report Abuse

insider trading...bad news to be expected..just my guess

Posted by lohman > 2014-01-01 12:34 | Report Abuse

not a big buyer but went in @ 2.05 and hoping to buy more if it goes lower. question is whether to gear up to accumulate.

Posted by Peter Lim Hang Weng > 2014-01-02 10:02 | Report Abuse

seller dry off today.....just as mr koon says, funds supress $ for year end window dressing

Posted by hng33 > 2014-01-02 11:10 | Report Abuse

Sold off Jtiasa at 2.10-2.11, realize slim loss, will wait for re-enter on weakness

Posted by Peter Lim Hang Weng > 2014-01-02 15:48 | Report Abuse

hng33, u wait , it will not be the same again from today

Posted by Peter Lim Hang Weng > 2014-01-02 15:50 | Report Abuse

Read between the lines wat mr Koon wrote on 31/12, he heard and knew something

Posted by heavyth > 2014-01-02 16:19 | Report Abuse

Why and who would sell so aggressively in the last few days? When I posted this article, the price of Jaya Tiasa was Rm 2.13 on 1st Nov. and it shot up to above Rm 2.50 and it closed at Rm 2.05 on 30th Dec.

I think a professional fund manager whose book value of his portfolio is showing too much profit and he wants to depress the price of JT so that he can have an easy start for 2014. In any case, you can see for yourself that JT is so ridiculously under valued. Just basing on the market price of Rm 70,000 per hectare for oil palm plantation X 62,500 ha = Rm 4.375 billion which is more than twice of JT's market capitalization.

Let me elaborate on its plywood and timber business. JT has almost unlimited log supply from its own forest while manufacturers from India, China, Taiwan and Japan have to buy & import logs, most probably from JT. Remember JT is one of the largest plywood manufacturers in the world and with its competitive advantage, it will generate sustainable profit for a long time. Currently it is not showing much profit because JT has been using its money from its timber business to plant oil palms aggressively.

I consider JT is my best bet which I will continue to accumulate. After blowing so much about JT, my reputation is at stake. Where can I hide my face if JT remain depressed below Rm 2?

Koon Yew Yin

31-12-13

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-02 16:38 | Report Abuse

I am accumulating. The price trend is against Jtiasa's fundamentals. Koon has been quite vocal lately and very likely upset the powers that be who have decided to show their financial muscles. Their message: shut up if you want your share price to rise. I agree. Nothing that Koon wrote lately in the political sphere is new to me. So to be prudent and if he has nothing new to say, he should shut up until he can sell off Jtiasa at RM8!

Posted by Peter Lim Hang Weng > 2014-01-02 16:54 | Report Abuse

As I said, the seller only sells in 2013, during pre closing, the seller from broker 33/31, did not show up today. Time to recover from today.

Posted by invester > 2014-01-02 19:14 | Report Abuse

Share market is open. If you trust in this share, you purchase and hold. If you are not trust in this share, you can always look for others. For me, I have the same understanding as Mr. Koon. I started purchase this shares 1 year ago even before Mr Koon 1st comments.

Posted by Peter Lim Hang Weng > 2014-01-03 10:01 | Report Abuse

did i say it will recover

Posted by titus > 2014-01-03 10:23 | Report Abuse

yes....go go go......

Posted by titus > 2014-01-03 10:23 | Report Abuse

ang pow from Mr. Koon.........thank you

Posted by Thong Wing Hoong > 2014-01-04 05:19 | Report Abuse

Hmmmm....

Posted by Billyfoo > 2014-01-05 11:23 | Report Abuse

TQ mr Koon for sharing and hope J tiara will fly

Posted by titus > 2014-01-06 09:25 | Report Abuse

going up today. Thought want to buy more but train already move....

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-06 10:20 | Report Abuse

Mr. Koon, please do not let both your political and investment positions be known at the same time. Those political powers-that-be have enough financial muscle to sell you down the river and keep you there! Pity us poor retail investors. Without the big boys coming in, we will be kept low and counting interest cost.

Posted by Alphabeta > 2014-01-06 11:53 | Report Abuse

Mr. Koon was right about the improved FFB production, Jtiasa 1QFY14 result showed a 42% improvement in production volume and contributed to a lower production cost.

However its FFB Sales & average CPO price has dropped by 22% and 17% respectively. Its logs and plywood sales volume also reduced by 29% and 15% respectively. These reduction in sales volume of its products and fall in CPO price contributed to its lower quarter revenue compared to previous quarter.

In term of Gross profit, it has improved by 8.9% from RM 59.9mil to RM 65.2 mil. This was due to lower FFB production costs and increased logs and plywood average selling prices by 17% and 12% respectively.

Although profit has improved, Jtiasa lower sales volume has resulted in higher inventory. An increased of RM 29 mil. This has resulted a lower operating cash flow.

Its high capex payment and repayment of short term bank borrowings have reduced its cash holding substantially. As of 31/9/13, its still has a capex commitment of RM 103 mil and RM 391 mil short term loan. Its has another RM 451 mil as long term bank borrowings.

In the year 2014, CPO price will be higher compared to 2013. Hence, its sales volume of its products need to improve drastically in order to address its Achilles heel - cash flow.

Posted by titus > 2014-01-06 13:50 | Report Abuse

up up & away....

Posted by titus > 2014-01-06 22:54 | Report Abuse

I think Mr. Koon easily make $800K from his last week 4M share purchase. I guess this is what he is referring to using margin.

Posted by titus > 2014-01-07 16:22 | Report Abuse

losing steam.......

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-08 10:12 | Report Abuse

Correcting before continuing North on 2nd wave.

Posted by ycbang > 2014-01-10 21:26 | Report Abuse

TP blow 2.00

Posted by speakup > 2014-01-10 23:07 | Report Abuse

391mil short term loan + 451mil long term borrowing = high risk timebomb!

Posted by Up_down > 2014-01-10 23:43 | Report Abuse

The borrowing bomb is too small to burst its large Palm oil land. Money is borrow to invest in oil palm cultivation. It can sustain for very long time unless nobody want to set oil.

Posted by wmliang > 2014-01-13 23:48 | Report Abuse

sibu flood last month... jaya tiasa around 80% palm oil over there..

http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=8056&extra=&page=9



发表于 2014-1-13 20:43 | 只看该作者
我刚发现砂捞越州发生水灾。诗巫也遭殃了。常成有很多棕油地都在诗巫。

我的消息都是来自这两个网站http://sibuericluk.blogspot.com/
和http://www.seehua.com/news/sarawak/middle?page=24

有谁住在诗巫的？可以分享那边的境况吗？
flood 1.png (354.19 KB)

flood 1.png
flood 2.png (159.31 KB)

flood 2.png
13/01/2014 23:36

Posted by zero > 2014-01-14 01:23 | Report Abuse

PE Ratios look like a disaster waiting to happen

Posted by titus > 2014-01-16 17:08 | Report Abuse

continue uptrend? water in sibu?....hmmm....got water mean got money :)

Posted by cariyoyo > 2014-01-17 16:52 | Report Abuse

Jaya Tiasa is most likely going to tank in view of the on going anti peat land development. It has been highlighted that Sarawak's questionable oil palm plan in planting 2 million hectares of oil palm on mainly peat soil and native lands. Jaya Tiasa is deeply involved on oil palm planting in Sarawak.

Posted by titus > 2014-01-20 09:23 | Report Abuse

sold all Jtiasa.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-01-20 19:57 | Report Abuse

guys, please dont blindly follow what people said. Do your own homework. Mr Koon could be wrong (he is human, not god).

The following is an article posted by Mr Koon on Rimbunan Sawit way back in 2011 (I have removed some of the irrelevant wordings). According to his calculation, RSawit's valuation was only RM21,756 per hectare, making it the cheapest plantation stock in Bursa.

However, his calculation was flawed. He has made two major mistakes : (1) he forgot to factor in 194m ICPS, which is convertible into 733m new RSawit shares, (2) he only took into consideration the equity component of the balance sheet, but not the debt. (in other words, he uses Equity Value per hectare, instead of Enterprise Value per hectare).

I have done my own calculation and it turned out that the Enterprise Value per hectare for RSawit was RM37,850 per hectare (at the time Mr Koon wrote the article in 2011) and not RM21,756 per hectare. At RM37,850 per hectare, RSawit was fully valued at that time (and until now it is still fully valued as the trees had yet to fully matured). That was why RSawit has not gone up at all until now (latest closing 77 sen).

my EV calculation is based on following :-
(1) shares of 2014m on fully diluted basis (instead of 1,308m shares as per Mr Koon assumption)
(2) price of RM0.83 (as per the price when Mr Koon wrote the article)
(3) debt of RM380m
(4) cash of RM208m (includes RM118m short term investment)

EV = (2,014m x RM0.83) + RM380 - RM208 = RM1,866m

EV per Ha = RM1,866m / 49,300 ha = RM37,850 per ha (instead of RM21,756 per ha)

for ease of reference, the article below was from Mr Koon in November 2011

==================================================

Is Rimbunan Sawit the best value plantation stock NOW?
by Koon Yew Yin, the philanthropist tycoon.

I have studied almost all the plantation stocks and in my opinion R. Sawit is the cheapest in terms of NTA and its profit growth prospect in the next few years.

As you know, I do not or very seldom recommend people to buy any share. But in this case, I am doing it because I strongly believe this share is the cheapest plantation company in terms of NTA and profit growth prospect in the next few years which is the single most important criterion in share selection.

The share closed at Rm 0.83 on 9th Nov 2011. Its market capitalisation = Rm 0.83 X 1308 million issued shares= Rm1086 million.

Total planted acreage is 49,300 ha. The cost per ha is 108672 million divided by 49,300 = Rm 21,756.

IOI announces about 3 months ago that they are buying about 11,900 ha of oil palm plantation from Dutaland Bhd for Rm 830 million cash = Rm 69,740 per ha.

For Rm 830 cash you can buy 77% of the whole company of R Sawit Bhd which have just received about Rm 400 million cash from the right issues.

United Plantation total issued shares is 208.13 million shares X Rm 17.80 = Rm 3,705 million market capitalisation. According to its annual 2010 report it has 45,494 ha planted that is Rm 3,705 million divided by 45,494 ha= Rm 81,439 per ha.

R Sawit is selling only at Rm 21,756 per ha.
Koon Yew Yin
10th Nov 2011



Read More http://kclau.com/investment/rsawit/ - See more at: http://kclau.com/investment/rsawit/#sthash.gdsVoZi3.dpuf

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-01-21 10:13 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, correct me if I am wrong, Koon was using market capitalisation value for his calculation. Debt is not relevant in such calculations using market capitalisation since it is already factored in by the market. Whether Koon was right or wrong depends on whether he also use market capitalisation values for United Plantation and IOI in coming up with figures for comparision. Also your figures depends on whether the RM0.83 per share reflects the full dilution from the ICPS issue of 733 million shares.