Posted by Just88 > 2021-10-06 20:57 | Report Abuse

DK was brave enough to go against management guidance of RM80m profit. All of you called him silly. Is he right ?

Posted by Just88 > 2021-10-06 20:58 | Report Abuse

Philip, 300m is free cash flow not profit.

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-10-06 21:02 | Report Abuse

kakakakakaka

REMEMBER => VIETNAM Ministerial Determination for coal is 10% IRR for both Capacity and Energy.

thats how all power plants are calculated, even nuclear ones.

for coal it used to be 8% IRR globally but Vietnam was desperate so gave 10% IRR

12% IRR is normally given for Green Power Sources

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-10-06 21:12 | Report Abuse

https://nocoaljapan.org/vungang2_showed_negative_profitability/

coal power plants are under stress nowadays

the long term future prospects for coal power plants are all very dim

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 21:17 | Report Abuse

Sslee We only get 37 million per quarter of earnings instead of the previously acclaimed 300-400 million.

If I am not mistaken the tax free is only for 5 years after that need to pay tax


Dear Sslee,

300-400 is Phillip and icon8888 figure , not Dk figure .

Very misleading and irresponsible

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-10-06 21:17 | Report Abuse

https://www.aseantoday.com/2021/03/mitsubishi-drops-vietnam-coal-plant-as-investors-face-pressure-for-environmental-social-risks/

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 21:19 | Report Abuse

Phillip,

I did not say 300-400 m and Dk also di not said . It is your figure. What are trying to prove

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-10-06 21:23 | Report Abuse

I see, thanks for the clarity.

So am I right to say that the profit from JV now is justified. At rm37 million per quarter for 30% ownership, the total returns let year to owners of the power plant is 500 million per year (100%). At construction costs of 1.87 billion USD, for a 25 year bot, 5 year tax free on earnings, we are spending 8 billion for a 500 million a year share of profit.

That sounds very good actually. How much interest, dilution and pp had been done to cover the 30% so far? So currently we are looking at 148 million in earnings from JV per year, 24 million in interest charges per year, 300 million in debt. 270 million in warrants and pp.

Seems like a good deal. Sounds like a very good buy there

I wish everyone luck with jaks.

>>>>>>>

/2021 8:57 PM

Just88 Philip, 300m is free cash flow not profit.
06/10/2021 8:58 PM

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 21:25 | Report Abuse

300m-400m is icon8888 IRR analysis .
I had not seen any Dk report mentioned the 300-400 M . Have you ? If yes please show me .

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-10-06 21:27 | Report Abuse

How much is your analysis, at rm1.5?

>>>>>>>

Posted by Aseng > Oct 6, 2021 9:25 PM | Report Abuse

300m-400m is icon8888 IRR analysis .
I had not seen any Dk report mentioned the 300-400 M . Have you ? If yes please show me .

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 21:31 | Report Abuse

i3lurker //
https://nocoaljapan.org/vungang2_showed_negative_profitability/

coal power plants are under stress nowadays

the long term future prospects for coal power plants are all very dim


Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

 Oct 5, 2021 4:27 PM | Report Abuse 

i3lurkerr// I had already mentioned umpteen times that coal is passthrough.
Thats ok
I actually understand since you are chinese educated so dun speak Inglisheee

Which is your true words

One moment you said coal is passed through
Next moment you said the prospect is dim .

Where is your credibility?

Posted by Sslee > 2021-10-06 21:34 | Report Abuse

https://en.evn.com.vn/d6/news/Operational-situation-in-August-2021-and-objectives-and-tasks-in-September-2021-66-142-2487.aspx

Power production of the whole system in August 2021 reached 21.58 billion kWh (average of about 696 million kWh/day), decreasing by 0.3% compared to the same period in 2020. As accumulated in 8 months, the figure reached 173.22 billion kWh, increasing by 5.4% over the same period. In which, the mobilizing rate of some main sources is as follows:

+ Hydropower reached 46.50 billion kWh, accounting for 26.8% of the total power output of the whole system.

+ Coal thermal power reached 85.23 billion kWh, accounting for 49.2% of the total power production of the whole system.

+ Gas turbines reached 19.79 billion kWh, accounting for 11.4% of the total power production of the whole system.

+ Renewable energy reached 20.31 billion kWh (solar power alone is 19.07 billion kWh) accounting for 11.7% of the total power production of the whole system.

+ Mobilized oil thermal power is insignificant, reaching 02 million kWh.

+ Imported electricity reached 878 million kWh, accounting for 0.5% of the total power production of the whole system.

Posted by PleaseTeachMe > 2021-10-06 21:34 | Report Abuse

Philip, when the Q1 result was out, DK projected Jaks's share of the joint venture as RM140m per year. The RM37. 5m profit in Q2 indicates that the full year projection will be about RM150m. Please take note that Q2 result wa affected by 2 months of substandard operation. DK's estimate is that this will add another 10% to the profit. In addition, when Jaks's ownership in JHDP is increased from 30% to 40%, the earnings from JHDP will increase by 33%. In all his sharings, DK did not tell us that the profit per quarter is 300m-400m. I think there is some misunderstanding here.

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 21:36 | Report Abuse

Phillip This is DK valuation . Please read carefully before you mixed up with somebody else

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/jennylohsharing/2020-12-17-story-h1538277157-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-10-06 21:41 | Report Abuse

its non-linear

for april may june quarter "new" coal plants will generate maximum profitability

thats as good as you will ever get

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 21:42 | Report Abuse

Phillip,

You should apologise to the readers here because of your ignorant of the BOT contract and also the valuation done by DK.

Please show me your gentlemanship if you are a man that deserved everybody respect

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 21:44 | Report Abuse

Creating stories , altering the figure can only mislead the newbies but can not prove the truth wrong

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-10-06 21:51 | Report Abuse

Ok sir aseng, you have my full apologies. Jaks is a wonderful company and everyone in bursa had lost much in not investing in it. Good luck with your investment.

I hope your wish comes true and jaks will really become a 3 billion ringgit company one day.

Good luck and all the best.

Posted by Hoho22 > 2021-10-06 21:55 | Report Abuse

Born Dreamer!

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-10-06 21:58 | Report Abuse

But still, I will not buy based on dk conclusion on this

>>>>>>>>

This article concludes that JHDP is expected to deliver EPS of between RM0.30 to RM0.40 to Jaks. At PE of 10 to 15 times, Jaks is worth between RM3 to RM6.

Posted by PleaseTeachMe > 2021-10-06 22:00 | Report Abuse

Sslee, Aseng's RM1.50 TP for Jaks was actually calculated by DK using the Discounted Cash Flow methodology. It is a conservative estimate of Jaks's intrinsic value. Please note that this method of valuation assumes that that the future cash flows received are sitting idle and
not generating any extra income. This is highly unlikely. Therefore, one of the complaints against the DCF valuation is that it ignores the earning capability of the cash flows received over the 25 year period. It is unfortunate that DK is not here to clear up the misunderstanding or to defend himself as he had already retired from I3 forum .......................................
Sslee- Aseng not even ALP or BOD 0r God can guarantee in 2 year time JAKS will be RM1.50. So be humble and know your limit.
06/10/2021 7:24 PM

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-10-06 22:05 | Report Abuse

thats why he deleted it all

I really cannot understand why you all fellers insist on embarassing him by illegally copying his wayward conclusions.

Just let him be retired to high mountain..............

please have some pity for DK

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 22:07 | Report Abuse

Dear Phillip my good friend

Jaks is my best informed investment .
As long as I have a good reason to believe what I am doing is right , I have no demand of the type of outcome . No one can promised me a tomorrow, not DK or you. But I promise myself I must know very well what I am doing.

Nice to talk with you .
You are a gentleman I respect

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-10-06 22:08 | Report Abuse

PleaseTeachMe, you mean that rm1.50 is a conservative estimate? The moon conservative estimate is rm6?

How about we invert this, and we look at the current situation of rm0.425. why is the entire market, investment bankers and retailing public leaving rm2.65 on the table? What issues are giving the investing market such worries and fears even after cod and successful running and profit earning of the public?

What is their worries? I'm sure you are very well versed and know the reasons why we should be buying,

But if we invert, can you share what are also the reason why we are NOT buying currently?

Then we can compare the pros/cons of investing in jaks and realize what is going on as there is no such thing as a perfect investment.

What risks are currently involved that is making institutions leave rm2.55 off the table?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-10-06 22:08 | Report Abuse

Very interested to know your view on this. Thanks

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 22:13 | Report Abuse

Hobo22,

I can easily ignore your comment , I choose to talk to you.

Please do not talk the conclusion , I believe before the conclusion certainly you have some good point to said. If not how do you derive the conclusion . Am I right ?

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 22:30 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee ,

75% of the is actually provided by the capacity payment . That is I understood.


Capacity payment is determined to sufficiently cover the followings;

1Equity capital
2Bank borrowings
3.Loan Interest
4.Fixed maintenance costs
5.Fixed operation costs
6.Required Investment returns

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 22:30 | Report Abuse

There is no worry of the financial cost from this aspect

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 22:37 | Report Abuse

Required investment returns also covered by capacity payment. Energy payment is more a less a bonus . Can be more or less. Moreover fuel cost is covered by the fixed heat rate . So, when my group member wrote to the IR to enquire the impact of rising coal price on the profit margin , the answer is no impact in fact Jay's stands to gain at a higher coal price by the calculation they shared with us. Why our group has such a privilege, because we are a substantial shares holder

Posted by Just88 > 2021-10-06 22:39 | Report Abuse

Philip, you should know that the conclusion was prior to the last right issue when the NOSH was much smaller. You should read the content to know that the profit forecast by DK was RM190m and EPS should be RM0.093 based on current NOSH of 2.04b shares.

>>>>>>>
Philip ( buy what you understand) But still, I will not buy based on dk conclusion on this

>>>>>>>>

This article concludes that JHDP is expected to deliver EPS of between RM0.30 to RM0.40 to Jaks. At PE of 10 to 15 times, Jaks is worth between RM3 to RM6.

Posted by Just88 > 2021-10-06 22:42 | Report Abuse

DK believes that high coal price actually benefits JHDP. Can you believe that ! I do as he has explained that clearly to his group.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-10-06 22:45 | Report Abuse

So the first inversion on why the general public does not invest in jaks is the historical propensity of the company to not use internally generated funds for investments, but their history of diluting the earnings due to shareholders by making them pay more to keep that same share of cake?

So the question would be how much more dilution will there be in the future which will reduce the excitement of holding this stock?

Interesting point indeed.

Posted by PleaseTeachMe > 2021-10-06 22:49 | Report Abuse

Philip, the valuation is DK's, not mine. He made several assumptions including further ESOS and Free Grants = 3 billions shares. As to why the present price is RM0.425 and not RM1.50, my answer is "Investment methodoogy is an art, not a science. " DK estimated the fair value of Jaks as RM1.50 and invested accordingly. It is up to every individual to decide the fair price for a stock before he buys. For example, a well-known investment writer consider Harta at RM14 as very cheap but today the price is less than RM6.00. I am sure many investors bought Harta at very much higher prices. Before the price declines for gloves, many investment bankers set very high target price for the top glove stocks. None of us has a crystal ball. There are so many forces at work - short-selling, poor market sentiment, political uncertainty, syndicate manipulating the market and a host of other factors. If stock investment is easy, everyone will become rich. That is why even large funds lost a lot of money in Serbadk. Let us not split hair over this matter. After all, this forum is just for sharing ideas and opinions.

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 22:52 | Report Abuse

Phillip , You are thinking too much . Fund raising does not equate earning dilution if it is value accretive.
Number of share is also not an issue . Hongseng is a good example

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-10-06 22:55 | Report Abuse

I remember a situation a long time ago when my ex boss was played out of the Sarawak oil palm m&a activities. One of the holdings of which he had a 25% share in was diluted and spread out as more investments were required to "grow" and build the business which he started with his own blood and tears. Even though he started with a 25% share, with private placements and warrants and share dilution he was diluted down to 3% from his initial ownership, after which his plantation was absorbed and sold by majority shareholders for a few hundred million, of which he earned very little compared to his initial investments before being diluted out.

Very sad but true story. There are multiple ways to lose on your stock investment without even knowing why.

Posted by DickyMe3 > 2021-10-06 22:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-10-06 23:00 | Report Abuse

Over sold...!

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 23:06 | Report Abuse

You asked s very good question , why the shares price keep going South? I believe the fear of further fund raising and lack of management guidance to the fund managers and ib analysts could one of the reason .

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-10-06 23:08 | Report Abuse

dilution?

I see 4 to 5 Billion shares

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 23:10 | Report Abuse

Not many here have the privilege of accessing Dk write up . From the interaction these few day I many investors here are less informed or misinformed of the company development . The recent coal price is a good example . People tends to use common sense to guess the agreement . This is a very serious mistake .

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-10-06 23:12 | Report Abuse

coal is passthrough

only capacity payments will be made

the power plant will not run

thats easy enough to understand

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-10-06 23:14 | Report Abuse

coal is passthrough

power plant will not run due to high cost of coal

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-10-06 23:14 | Report Abuse

guess many people still dun undertand

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-10-06 23:16 | Report Abuse

end of story

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 23:19 | Report Abuse

Fund raising is not equal to earning dilution .
If you are that stubborn to say it is , the IPO is the biggest dilution but shares can still shoot to the sky .

Posted by Aseng > 2021-10-06 23:20 | Report Abuse

i3lurker dilution?

I see 4 to 5 Billion shares


So what ?
Because you have not seen a 10B shares ?

Posted by mita29 > 2021-10-07 00:52 | Report Abuse

Coal accounts for 43% of Vietnam power generation last year, What you mean it will not run when coal price is high? The only valid reason they won't run is when there is coal shortage like in India now.

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/energy/power/coal-crisis-leaves-india-with-few-options-to-avoid-power-crunch/articleshow/86801465.cms

Posted by GENER > 2021-10-07 02:05 | Report Abuse

支持你 AhSeng ！

Posted by Sslee > 2021-10-07 07:14 | Report Abuse

By next year Jaks annual report you will know exactly how Jaks hai dong power plant financial performance.

Meanwhile wish all jaks shareholders best of luck

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2021-10-07 07:55 | Report Abuse

Sslee

Ada missing part kat compain u

B4 u complain to SC u patut make sure yg 49% minority tu DID NOT lend to tat ex subsidy in matching amount proportionate to its % shareholding to JAKS % shareholding

Dah u make sure??