Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-06 13:54 | Report Abuse

foreigner keep selling 1 month plus d. will the market will collapse?

Posted by BlessedInvestor > 2020-05-06 13:54 | Report Abuse

Fully agreed with Livesimply and Hengry8833 . Philip is big boy but his investment style may not suit every one. Just like no one are able to emulate Warren Buffet. I am happy with my return over past years with my own style.

Nonetheless, I am very thankful for his willingness to share his portfolio with us as good reference.

This I3 forum is a fantastic place to share information and we are grateful we have great people like DK66, Icon888, OTB and Phillip who is willing to share. We can evaluate and make our investment decisions.

Every writers also have some sort of motives. Even The Edge Weekly, which i stopped subscribing long ago, their writers also have motives and some are paid(other than salaries from the Edge) to write certain companies. You can hardly make money if you read and follow the Edge writer ups. We also aware that Jaks expenses maybe higher as pointed by Phillip. We are not that stupid, Philip.

Once again, thanks those who are willing to share and less personal attack. Pls do not discourage good writter like DK66, Icon8888 to share. We already lost OTB contribution here(I believe OTB return is better than Phillip). Let's not lost more good writers here. This is a good forum.




-------------------------------------------------------
LiveSimply Agree! Both DK66 and Icon8888 provide us with insights into the investment. It is up to us to apply our critical thinking skills on their insights. It is not their faults if investment turns south because it is our decision to invest. I applaud them for their efforts and kindness to share!

---------------
Henry8833 DK66 wrote many articles just for sharings and let us know better from difference perspective. No anyone or rather most in i3 in the same league as Phillip.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 13:57 | Report Abuse

Sslee,

Am really that fearful ?
please kindly enlightened me
i do not wish to continue to behave in a bad way that i myself not aware

thank you.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 14:08 | Report Abuse

RangerJ, Thanks again for the affirmation
---------------
RangerJ Hi DK66, Very kind words, thank you. As icon8888 mentioned, there is reliability (availability) guarantee on top of efficiency guarantee. Efficiency is not constant, as there will be degradation over the PPA period. Personally, I won't lose sleep over these matters at this point. Wishing you all the best. Thank you.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 14:10 | Report Abuse

Aseng, good advice. Thanks

----------------
Aseng DK66,

do not need to create unnecessary unhappiness for yourself
it is not your job to convince everybody that the facts and figures that you had presented is true and correct , as long as it is reasonable , logical and make sense , it is already good enough.
your job is just to share honestly and truthfully to the best you can

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 14:11 | Report Abuse

Lantern42, You are welcome and thank you

---------------
Lantern42 Hello DK. Thank you so much for your answers. We are all lucky to have such an astute investor like you. Also thanks to Mr Ooi Teik Bee for sharing. I really don't understand why there are so many people who like to unnecessarily slam people just for fun. Mr DK and Mr Ooi, do please ignore them and continue your sharing. You are two are a bright example for all of us.
06/05/2020 1:26 PM

Posted by WEunity > 2020-05-06 14:12 | Report Abuse

, to go far we must stay together. to go fast you have to walk alone.

Thanks again for those who are willing to share their knowledge and information with us like DK66, OTB, Icon8888, Phillip, Pjseow, Sslee. And ya, well said BlessedInvestor.

Please do not waste time to response on those people who are trying to pull down others.

----------------------

BlessedInvestor Fully agreed with Livesimply and Hengry8833 . Philip is big boy but his investment style may not suit every one. Just like no one are able to emulate Warren Buffet. I am happy with my return over past years with my own style.

Nonetheless, I am very thankful for his willingness to share his portfolio with us as good reference.

This I3 forum is a fantastic place to share information and we are grateful we have great people like DK66, Icon888, OTB and Phillip who is willing to share. We can evaluate and make our investment decisions.

Every writers also have some sort of motives. Even The Edge Weekly, which i stopped subscribing long ago, their writers also have motives and some are paid(other than salaries from the Edge) to write certain companies. You can hardly make money if you read and follow the Edge writer ups. We also aware that Jaks expenses maybe higher as pointed by Phillip. We are not that stupid, Philip.

Once again, thanks those who are willing to share and less personal attack. Pls do not discourage good writter like DK66, Icon8888 to share. We already lost OTB contribution here(I believe OTB return is better than Phillip). Let's not lost more good writers here. This is a good forum.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 14:15 | Report Abuse

Aseng, you are right. So far the only credible comment is fom probability on the efficiency difference. I will try and hopefully find a credible way to quantify the monetary effect of the impact.

I appreciate the contribution by Probability. Thank you

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 14:20 | Report Abuse

Aseng, RangerJ is definitely a man with deep knowledge of coal power plants

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 14:24 | Report Abuse

Thanks DK66 for having unbiased judgement and eagerness to know the truth.

Sometime our mind can trick is to look on all the positive aspects only when we are invested.

When i am convinced, will surely whack JAKS. But at the moment i have some reservations... knowing that there are other more certain investment opportunities.


Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 2:15 PM | Report Abuse

Aseng, you are right. So far the only credible comment is fom probability on the efficiency difference. I will try and hopefully find a credible way to quantify the monetary effect of the impact.

I appreciate the contribution by Probability. Thank you

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-06 14:26 | Report Abuse

careful o, black swan

Posted by Lantern42 > 2020-05-06 14:26 | Report Abuse

Thank you CLKCat!

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 14:33 | Report Abuse

BlessedInvestor

1. OTB had stop sharing here any any useful information the earliest time long ago , this a fact everyone long enough here know very well, we want him because his group money can move the price . KYY also did the same . so it is wrong to say we had lost OTB, he had chosen to abandon us .

2. it is my personal view that it is better OTB not to share here since there is a conflict of interest with his subscription business, it is difficult for him to share with us sincerely and honestly like what DK and icon8888 are doing , what more to say at the earliest time .



3. i have no intention to talk bad about anybody , just being honest and tell the truth.



BlessedInvestor >>Once again, thanks those who are willing to share and less personal attack. Pls do not discourage good writter like DK66, Icon8888 to share. We already lost OTB contribution here(I believe OTB return is better than Phillip). Let's not lost more good writers here. This is a good forum

Posted by RainT > 2020-05-06 14:36 | Report Abuse

this one now still can buy ah ?

Posted by huahtai98 > 2020-05-06 14:58 | Report Abuse

@Philip....you have doubts about Jaks and yet you are still here in Jaks forum. What actually do you seek bro?

Posted by Radeon > 2020-05-06 15:33 | Report Abuse

buy a bit..

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-06 15:39 | Report Abuse

dun say i not warn u.. 0.80 in the making

Posted by Investee > 2020-05-06 15:52 | Report Abuse

Doesn't anyone know what's the impact of low interest rate environment now on the debt financing for power plant? Is there any significant savings there?

Posted by nonamestupid > 2020-05-06 15:57 | Report Abuse

DK66 and aseng is speculator..becareful guys.. the power plant is good if everything is as usual.. but now it is unusual..!! too high debt.. jaks is throwing all into 1 bet.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 15:58 | Report Abuse

Supercritical design has higher O&M cost which will offsets part of the benefit of cost savings over subcritical design. Each USD10 increase in O&M will results in annual extra cost of USD12m.

Coal has long been the workhorse of the power generation market. It may be in the twilight of its reign as environmental policymakers look to limit their reliance on coal-fired power, but its strong all-round financial characteristics will make coal economically competitive in the absence of high costs for carbon emissions or skyrocketing coal prices. O&M costs aren’t spectacularly low for coal, with the cheapest subcritical plants coming in at $43 per kW, the cost rising steadily through the more efficient supercritical and modern ultrasupercritical coal combustion technologies before arriving at $88 per kW in the case of the less-polluting and carbon capture-ready integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants.

A major driver for O&M costs at coal-fired plants is monitoring and servicing the many moving parts involved in the generation process, including turbines and generating sets, coal yard conveyors and handling systems. As coal power stations are often baseload plants, these components are often expected to operate continuously while being subjected to heavy loads and high temperatures, as well as varying levels of dust, dirt and moisture. Innovations in predictive maintenance and asset optimisation have helped bring down costs over the years, but O&M expenditure in this highly mature sector of the industry is now expected to remain stable through to 2035.

https://www.power-technology.com/features/featurepower-plant-om-how-does-the-industry-stack-up-on-cost-4417756/

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-06 15:58 | Report Abuse

Last week to exit. BNM is cutting 50 point, Nx is 25 point. Market is very bad now and cant afford to have 2nd covid wave. V shape recovery will not happen.

Posted by huahtai98 > 2020-05-06 16:30 | Report Abuse

Some people talk as if they can confidently predict Jaks price....never leave any room for mistakes.....so thick- skinned.

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-06 16:36 | Report Abuse

still chasing high? cut loss later?

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-06 16:38 | Report Abuse

today is open high close low

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-06 16:42 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bnm-foreign-fund-outflow-rm177b-march-amid-heightened-global-risk-aversion?fbclid=IwAR2Cn1Jopz55Z1PCbOXriVP1ylySCqyjb29dbl77qsvyo2qJw8PyfdzaWaI

BNM: Foreign fund outflow at RM17.7b in March amid heightened global risk aversion

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 16:51 | Report Abuse

This article showed (page 5) that current supercritical design has an average of 10% (4 percentage point) higher efficiency than subcritical design, not 25%

https://www.worldcoal.org/file_validate.php?file=Cornerstone_Volume3_Issue1.pdf

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-06 16:52 | Report Abuse

KLSE -13 prepare to falling

Posted by CUTLOSS > 2020-05-06 16:55 | Report Abuse

Luckily sold at 1.15 if not lose more.

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-06 16:58 | Report Abuse

Now not about stock. Please visit US. Then u know what i saying.

Posted by Investee > 2020-05-06 17:02 | Report Abuse

"Future electricity price are required to fully recover all the Power sector's costs (operation, maintenance and investment cost, debt repayment obligations) by the revenue from selling electricity and this price was expected to average about 11-12 cents/kWh."

11-12 cents/kWh is a lot to give.

https://en.evn.com.vn/d6/news/World-Bank-specialist-Vietnam-sells-power-below-capital-recovery-rate-66-163-1378.aspx

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-06 17:05 | Report Abuse

Please dont post outdated news

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 17:37 | Report Abuse

The below article is just a simple estimation based on the increasing capital cost in the order of subcritical < supercritical < ultrasupercritical

the logic is similar to BMW having higher maintenance cost compared to Toyota corolla

Its highly subjective and based on old data where the cost difference between these were significant during the earlier years

Its not something concrete (limitation based on laws of physics) as for the case of Thermal efficiency

Vinh Tan 1 having similar capital cost with Hai Duong is unlikely to have much difference in O&M

Further, the 196M/yr you had used is on the first year wlike with zero maintenance cost as the equipments are all brand new. This means the figure you are stressing 12M/yr below is not incorporated to used that to compare with Hai Duong. In other words, if you obtain 196M/yr on the 10th year of Vinh Tan 1, you can then use the O&M cost difference for derivation of Hai Duong earnings.




Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 3:58 PM | Report Abuse

Supercritical design has higher O&M cost which will offsets part of the benefit of cost savings over subcritical design. Each USD10 increase in O&M will results in annual extra cost of USD12m.

Coal has long been the workhorse of the power generation market. It may be in the twilight of its reign as environmental policymakers look to limit their reliance on coal-fired power, but its strong all-round financial characteristics will make coal economically competitive in the absence of high costs for carbon emissions or skyrocketing coal prices. O&M costs aren’t spectacularly low for coal, with the cheapest subcritical plants coming in at $43 per kW, the cost rising steadily through the more efficient supercritical and modern ultrasupercritical coal combustion technologies before arriving at $88 per kW in the case of the less-polluting and carbon capture-ready integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants.

A major driver for O&M costs at coal-fired plants is monitoring and servicing the many moving parts involved in the generation process, including turbines and generating sets, coal yard conveyors and handling systems. As coal power stations are often baseload plants, these components are often expected to operate continuously while being subjected to heavy loads and high temperatures, as well as varying levels of dust, dirt and moisture. Innovations in predictive maintenance and asset optimisation have helped bring down costs over the years, but O&M expenditure in this highly mature sector of the industry is now expected to remain stable through to 2035.

https://www.power-technology.com/features/featurepower-plant-om-how-do...

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 17:46 | Report Abuse

Not sure what you are trying to say. let me clarify:


Say your subcritical plant efficiency is 33% and your supercritical is at 43%.

It means for subcritical:

100 fuel delivers = 33 power (energy)

For supercritical:

100 fuel delivers = 43 power (energy)


Now what is the fuel consumed to produce 100 power (energy)?:
...........................................................

From above equation,

100 power needs 303 fuel for subcritical

100 power needs 232 fuel for supercritical

The above mean subcritical consumes 303/232 = 30% extra fuel to produce the same power 100.

30% extra fuel consumption for 10 basis point difference
.........................................................



Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 4:51 PM | Report Abuse

This article showed (page 5) that current supercritical design has an average of 10% (4 percentage point) higher efficiency than subcritical design, not 25%

https://www.worldcoal.org/file_validate.php?file=Cornerstone_Volume3_I...

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 18:04 | Report Abuse

Probability, we are not expert and we learn from internet. We can only rely on what we come to knowledge. The article is dated 2014 which is not old.

The main technical challenge with supercritical plants is that the higher steam pressure and temperature require components (superheaters, headers, water tubes, steam chests, rotors and turbine casings) which are produced from nickel-based alloys. Nickel is an expensive commodity. Hence, I don't find it hard to believe that higher and newer technology entails higher O&M costs.

I won't say there is zero O&M cost in first year of operation. There is an annual maintenance period of 15 - 30 days.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 18:06 | Report Abuse

Probability, the article says subcritical 33-39% and supercritical 38-42%

---------------------------
probability Not sure what you are trying to say. let me clarify:

Say your subcritical plant efficiency is 33% and your supercritical is at 43%.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 18:09 | Report Abuse

This maintenance cost difference (if at all happens) can only be true on later years (due to wear & tear). During the early stage it can only be preventive maintenance which would not be much different between the two - sub & supercritical

Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 6:04 PM | Report Abuse

Probability, we are not expert and we learn from internet. We can only rely on what we come to knowledge. The article is dated 2014 which is not old.

The main technical challenge with supercritical plants is that the higher steam pressure and temperature require components (superheaters, headers, water tubes, steam chests, rotors and turbine casings) which are produced from nickel-based alloys. Nickel is an expensive commodity. Hence, I don't find it hard to believe that higher and newer technology entails higher O&M costs.

I won't say there is zero O&M cost in first year of operation. There is an annual maintenance period of 15 - 30 days.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 18:14 | Report Abuse

Probability, we are getting deeper and deeper into unknown which we assume we know. Well, maybe you do but I m an accountant. I get my knowledge from reading. I won't simply argue against your knowledge but you must recognise that you are making assumption too. Too much assumptions will come to nothing.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 18:15 | Report Abuse

Maybe Aseng has the solution - 10% discount. Maybe you could apply more.

Posted by Antifakeguru > 2020-05-06 18:16 | Report Abuse

Dun invest something that u dun understand. Buffet quote

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 18:25 | Report Abuse

It gives a range, not sure you can use its avg as the expected figure for comparison.

Would still recommend to use the Table 2 figures where they have given power generation cost per Kw generated:

15 - 21% higher based on the range given.

If you take the median around 18% should be considering all factors (probably even O&M).


https://www.bpastudies.org/bpastudies/article/view/170/318

Use 17% if you need to

Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 6:06 PM | Report Abuse

Probability, the article says subcritical 33-39% and supercritical 38-42%

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 18:28 | Report Abuse

DK66, i am not assuming much. You can ask any maintennance engineers or anyone who had worked on manufacturing plants to verify.

The last figure of 18% from Table 2 is a direct power generation cost given (no assumptions).

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-06 18:30 | Report Abuse

must assume cancer power plant from your profit projections.

non-cancer power plants profit must drop drastically
usable power only 80% for non-cancer power plants

////Too much assumptions will come to nothing.///

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 19:02 | Report Abuse

Still talking about energy efficiency?
Fuel cost.

My pitiful DK66,
Let Aseng go through probability argument tonight, may be I can come with some funny ideas.

Wish me good lucks

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 19:12 | Report Abuse

Probability,
Before Aseng come out with some funny idea or provide some guidance to solve your
please stop disturbing or torture my good brother DK66.

I will try my best to reply you before 11.00pm
Now it is time for dinner and time to play with my grandchild and time to watch TV.

11.00PM I surely will give you a good reply.

Ok?

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-06 19:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-06 19:16 | Report Abuse

D 2 types IPP cost almost sama jer

Klau subcritical n supercritical profit kan substantially difference knp Hai Duong IPP x guna supercritical jer??

icon888 makes more sense

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-06 19:18 | Report Abuse

Ni more DOE requirement kut

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 19:21 | Report Abuse

hello Aseng, not me torture DK66...its his hardwork to find all possible goods news to justify Jaks is the one torturing me...

my JAKS earnings projection still stands about max 160M per year

80 M per unit/yr or 20 M per qtr till Sept 2021 results

easily eps will go below zero till then with other costs

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-06 19:23 | Report Abuse

Klau take in all ur comments PBB profit figure shd b jz capacity payment jer

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 19:24 | Report Abuse

Probability, I think we have debated enough. We will not get very far. Figures from different sources suggested different scenario. By taking average itself is an assumption. If possible we need to go very technical into Vinh Tan and JHDP power plants specific designs which is beyond my expertise.

Our debate, if continue, will get more aggressive as we are now arguing on which piece of information to rely on. We should stop here. I want to keep a good working relationship with you.

We have shown the readers here enough data for their judgement.

Once again, I thank you for your discussion. Very fruitful indeed.