Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-06 09:36 | Report Abuse

sapu sapu trend is coming back, lets break 1.14

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-06 09:37 | Report Abuse

haha,
Philip is always correct never wrong before.

Posted by Radeon > 2020-05-06 09:38 | Report Abuse

so many i3 'Taiko' r gather in tis counter... good sign.... buy...

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 09:40 | Report Abuse

DK66, i didnt get what you mean here.

The cost of generating power is fuel. Both are energy, one in chemical form and the other in electricity. The plant thermal efficiency directly provides the efficiency of conversion between the two forms of energy. It provides a direct relationship between cost and sales.

From Table 2 under column Fuel cost, it shows the extra cost of generating power between subcritical & supercritical plants.

It would be incomprehensible to have a PPA condition which derives same profit for both type of plants all other aspects (plant cost
etc) being equal.

Its either they have cheaper plant cost (lower capacity payment) with a higher operating cost or an expensive plant (higher capacity payment) with a lower operating cost.

If one is providing a same plant cost with a lower operating cost by 20% (the most important factor of energy - power), it cannot be that they get paid the same way.

The above is just an argument based on logic. As the cost of production difference is too huge to be ignored.




Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 9:15 AM | Report Abuse

Obviously this article suggested that cost savings is not proportionate to improvement in efficiency due to difference in design

https://www.bpastudies.org/bpastudies/article/view/170/318

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-05-06 09:40 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy

It is running away while you guys are busy doubting

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 09:42 | Report Abuse

The difference in efficiency is 25% but the fuel savings could be as low as 15%. My article assumed direct proportional relationship. Therefore, is it appropriate to use my article to quantify the difference in efficiency ? I m doing further studies on this ....

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 09:42 | Report Abuse

As a boss of yourself or your business never waste too much time to dwell with all the the technical thing. Leave it to your engineers . But the wisdom to tell which to accept which not accept is a must.
Think too much and too many premature assumption always a big hindrance to a wise decision

In this case I still strongly support DK66's relative valuation.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-06 09:44 | Report Abuse

I believe your articles are written with a huge bias as a concerned investor. When the st ocks go down, you write multiple articles. I tend to put less trust in these articles as they do not reflect the full pros and cons of the investment, as most prospectus/ipo have to show the risks of investment as well as it's prospects.

The fact that you see nothing but bright futures and rainbows in Jaks gives me a lot of red flags. When these flags happen I usually look at the promoters investment hitory.

1. When did you start investing in Jaks.
2. How many shares you hold, what is your buying cost.
3. How large a percentage of your total portfolio is jaks.
4. What is the long term results of your past investments.

These are the first things my wife does when buying mutual funds is to understand the fund manager. More important than his theories, is his long term results of being right.

But even fund managers try their best not to reveal their holdings and only their performance. The question remains, why so many articles written on jaks as a viable investment?

If you held a financial license, if you had bought a lot of shares at low prices and started marketing and selling to a lot of financially uneducated individuals, it would actually be considered illegal. Jordan Belfort illegal.

Now from your writing I am sure that you have done a lot of research on Jaks and am not cunning like icon8888, bursamaster and calvintaneng et. al. in writing pump and dump articles. However, I believe I hold a substantial far larger amount of shares in topglove than you do in jaks, yet I have never written a single stock promotion blog about it.

Why? I don't need to.

In the same vein, other than a single blog article in PCHEM, instead of writing blog after blog when the prices went down, all I did was a to average down and buy more at discount price ( you can check my portfolio in my buying cycle in PCHEM). The volume that I bought ( in relation to my portfolio) and my confidence in buying a huge amount at 4.09 shows my bias in pchem long term,
And I don't need articles to prove how I think it is a good deal.

I wish you well Dennis, but the fact remains: if the share price could remain at 60 cents all the way until power plant starts producing money, then as your calculations say you would be getting 27 cents dividends from jaks every year as capacity payment ( which Andy ang will give to shareholders surely).

If that is the case, sharing one well written article will be more than enough, thanks and a beer any time I see you. Getting to buy even more jaks at low prices consistently would be a far more useful and productive use of your time, wouldn't you agree?


>>>>>>>>>>

DK66 Philip, am I writing too many articles too ? Each of my article is on different perspective. Is there such thing as "too much sharing" is insincere ?
06/05/2020 9:08 AM

Posted by Henry8833 > 2020-05-06 09:45 | Report Abuse

Healthy arguments. The more debate on a matter, the clearer it becomes. Good sign as long as no personal attacks. Nobody is perfect.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 09:46 | Report Abuse

your article is wrong in that aspect, the correct formula is different

your formula will derive more than 25% difference, actual will be about 20%

you can use the lower range from the Table 2 which give 15% difference

That is big enough to discount the earnings by 40M per annum of Vinh Tan 1 for Hai Duong


Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 9:42 AM | Report Abuse

The difference in efficiency is 25% but the fuel savings could be as low as 15%. My article assumed direct proportional relationship. Therefore, is it appropriate to use my article to quantify the difference in efficiency ? I m doing further studies on this ....

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-06 09:49 | Report Abuse

Nola you are the bestest.

No one else is arrogant enough to put unverifiable information like banker handling malakoff case, ex engineer, retiree etc to make his article carry more weight, when the results are anything but.

Tell me, how is your analysis on success, ecoworld and iqgroup doing now? So many nice articles I don't know which to choose from.

Bestest writer ever. Sure can trust one.


>>>>>>>>>

Icon8888 Ya Philips is the best

Everybody else is unscrupulous and stupid
06/05/2020 8:56 AM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 09:49 | Report Abuse

It is also very importance to recognise the current price level of Jaks. Even discounting 50% of Vinh Tan 1's earnings, it is still worth it.

That is why I suggested using "margin of safety" to apply appropriate discount to Vinh Tan 1 results would be a better method compared to trying to make assumptions and adjustments on the earnings which are subject to scrutiny and debates.

Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-06 09:49 | Report Abuse

index turn green, UP UP UP is the oni way

Posted by Radeon > 2020-05-06 09:51 | Report Abuse

buy..buy..buy..

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 09:54 | Report Abuse

philip, you are very confident like me. Even so I won't jump into conclusion. What make you think I am Dennis ??

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2020-05-06 09:58 | Report Abuse

time will tell , fund manager will study when/after powerplant COD. few more months we will know the answer.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 09:59 | Report Abuse

Philip, there is no fairy in your world. You are always cynical. I stay in a simple town with many good people around.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-06 10:00 | Report Abuse

I am advocating transparency Mr xinquan. I thought you of all people would appreciate that. You everyday asking for fairness and equality.

If you created a new ID called rangerj just to push Insas articles, would I still treat you the same?

It is fair that if you say INSAS is a wonderful stock, I would ask you how much money you put into INSAS.

Otherwise how would I know if I am just helping you push INSAS to rm1 just so you can get out of your investment?

Same like xinquan owners. If Xinquan business so good, why do they do private placements and warrants and sell their shares to you? Simple logic, but top 30 shareholders will definitely have confirmation bias and hold their stocks until it is too late.

Very simple logic for me. Are you buying Jaks the company or are you buying Jaks the power plant when you invest into a share of Jaks? Two very different business model if you asked me.

>>>>>>>>>

slee Haha
What Philip said is there ain’t no tooth fairy in i3 except him. He is so transparent that you can see him naked.
06/05/2020 9:17 AM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 10:01 | Report Abuse

Money is evil, don't associate everything with money.

Posted by IronShirt > 2020-05-06 10:01 | Report Abuse

excess baggages are being loosen rather quickly today. Ready for next jump

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 10:01 | Report Abuse

Noted Icon.

To me all sounds fine except that it does not provide incentive for the plant supplier (vinh tan 1) who can provide a 20% reduction in operating cost with the same plant cost compared to another (Hai Duong).

20% in operating cost reduction is as good as providing 20% extra power for free.




Posted by Icon8888 > May 6, 2020 6:45 AM | Report Abuse

It doesn’t really matter what is the thermal efficiency etc

Because the concession agreement is structured to accommodate them

Let’s say vin tahn thermal efficiency is 70% and Hai Duong 50%

Under that kind of circumstances, during negotiation , vin tahn will agree to electricity sale price of let’s say RM100 per unit. However, since hai Duong cost is 21% higher (50% divided by 70% is 79%), it will ask for sale price of RM121 so as to cost pass through (and allow it to achieve same return as vin tahn !) (hey, that guy next door get paid RM50 per hour, I am doing the same thing during the same time, why should I get less ?)

In other words, IPP concessions are structured based on internationally accepted return

No matter what the operating parameters , in order to attract investors to set up the power plant, the government will have to promise certain FIXED return

Meaning they will have to absorb the fluctuation or variation of operational costs caused by different technology and other parameters

You don’t absorb I don’t invest

In other words, you don’t give me the return I like , I don’t invest

That is how it works

And that is why people like IPP model

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 10:02 | Report Abuse

Icon8888

What you are saying is exactly what a successful businessman asking. A more sustainable profit.

Your comment is very reasonable and logical.

Very good
Give you a 'like'

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-06 10:04 | Report Abuse

Sooner or later Andy kan reveals betapa best nya Vietnam Hai Duong IPP

Andy dah planned to cut red ribbon n reveal all

DK66 has jumped queue n stole Andy's thunder

Posted by Henry8833 > 2020-05-06 10:08 | Report Abuse

DK66 wrote many articles just for sharings and let us know better from difference perspective. No anyone or rather most in i3 in the same league as Phillip.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 10:09 | Report Abuse

Sarifah,

Mana rakan ku itu yang banyak insider news
Senyap sunyi saja....

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-06 10:11 | Report Abuse

HaHa.......

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 10:12 | Report Abuse

You are right, I didn't repeat. I don't have the absolute answer, hence I need to review my forecast using different method of valuation hoping to reassure myself of my estimates.
---------------
Henry8833 DK66 wrote many articles just for sharings and let us know better from difference perspective. No anyone or rather most in i3 in the same league as Phillip.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 10:15 | Report Abuse

Sarifah,

Icon8888 pandai sekali kali ini to defend the validity of Dk66 relative valuation.

Tapi some people can't do aything but pandai promote dia punya historical scoresheet.

Aseng tak suka lah such a behaviour lah....

Posted by LiveSimply > 2020-05-06 10:20 | Report Abuse

Agree! Both DK66 and Icon8888 provide us with insights into the investment. It is up to us to apply our critical thinking skills on their insights. It is not their faults if investment turns south because it is our decision to invest. I applaud them for their efforts and kindness to share!

---------------
Henry8833 DK66 wrote many articles just for sharings and let us know better from difference perspective. No anyone or rather most in i3 in the same league as Phillip.

Posted by IronShirt > 2020-05-06 10:22 | Report Abuse

Dso is waiting Jaks to Ramp-up to 1.20. Without short-selling, best way release over-bought pressure, is jumping between 2 Boats moving in the same direction

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 10:33 | Report Abuse

I explained in my article that there is potential upside of USD40m in earnings due to accounting treatment differences. However, this is disregarded on prudent grounds. I wish to keep the article as pure as it is without being clouded by assumptions.

Note that the earnings of Vinh Tan1 provides the BEST and most RELIABLE estimate for JHDP. It is not necessary the RIGHT estimate.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-06 10:37 | Report Abuse

Ok rangerj. Cynical or not you have only to look at my pump and dump promotional blogs to see. In fact, teoct is one individual that I am most impressed with. He writes very few articles, but his results are very credible. Him I wished wrote more articles ( even if he wrote bad and about my longest held stock).

To be honest, I can't wait for you guys to get this over with and make big money and good earnings from July onwards after power plant cod, and 2021 to see how OTB research plays out.

Then we will see results instead of estimations.

But here is my 2 cent analysis. Based on my experience as a guy who involved with YTL GROUP resort in sabah ( 3 day vacation)

You will not get 300 million in earnings from Jaks. It will be hidden behind costs and expenses, ppe capex and new investments and more share dilution and warrants from Jaks the company. The losses from other departments and divisions will pull down the entire business.

That is what will happen when you invest into Jaks.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by DK66 > May 6, 2020 9:59 AM | Report Abuse

Philip, there is no fairy in your world. You are always cynical. I stay in a simple town with many good people around.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 10:38 | Report Abuse

Dk66,

Very wise and rational
I support your idea because there is some difference in design




DK66//That is why I suggested using "margin of safety" to apply appropriate discount to Vinh Tan 1 results would be a better method compared to trying to make assumptions and adjustments on the earnings which are subject to scrutiny and debates

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 10:42 | Report Abuse

If I were to do, then 10% margin of safety is sufficient. Our fair value of 2.5 is still safe and sound

Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-06 11:17 | Report Abuse

oh yea..hot hot engine started again

Posted by Lantern42 > 2020-05-06 11:19 | Report Abuse

Hello DK, firstly I want to thank you for sharing all your good insights on Jaks. I would also like to ask you :

1) For the Vietnam plant, only phase 1 will be completed this year? How much would phase 1 contribute in terms of profits to Jaks?

2) When will the rest of the plant be completed?

Thank you

Posted by human > 2020-05-06 11:24 | Report Abuse

DK66 thanks for another article with facts and figures.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 11:25 | Report Abuse

JHDP consists of 2 operating units each 600MW supported by 2 x 300MW boilers. I understand that such design would increase plant efficiency both in fuel consumption and emission.

It is my opinion that Unit 1 is likely to be operational in Q3 2020 and Unit 2 four months later.

As to profit contribution, please refer to my latest article for guidance. I do not have the right answer only estimates.

Thank you
-----------------------------
Lantern42 Hello DK, firstly I want to thank you for sharing all your good insights on Jaks. I would also like to ask you :

1) For the Vietnam plant, only phase 1 will be completed this year? How much would phase 1 contribute in terms of profits to Jaks?

2) When will the rest of the plant be completed?

Thank you

Posted by CKLCAT > 2020-05-06 11:40 | Report Abuse

To Lantern 42

According to the https://baohaiduong.vn/doanh-nghiep/doanh-nghiep-no-luc-vuot-bao-covid-19-134965

"The plant, with a total investment of about 2.2 billion USD, is in the final stage to connect to the 220 kV power transmission network and prepare to put into operation the No. 1 unit in the fourth quarter of this year as well as the whole. project in the second quarter of 2021. It is expected that the plant will provide 7.5 billion kWh of electricity to the national grid every year."

Wish you All the Best.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 11:48 | Report Abuse

The final deadline for Unit 1 is 1st december 2020 with unit 2 deadline 31st May 2021. According to mong duong II and Vinh Tan 1, completion is expected to be about 5 to 6 months ahead of deadline. JHDP is impacted by Covid19, expected delay of 2 to 3 months from original schedule.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 12:00 | Report Abuse

my good friend ,

where are you ?
when we need you , you can not be found
when there is an opportunity , you never forget to take advantage

my 2 cents view is that a public forum is meant for us to share honestly and sincerely
not for your to promote your scold sheet
not for you to manipulate or cheat




i did not mention any person in particular
if you think i attack you , then it is your problem not mind
i am just telling a general truth

Posted by harold8990 > 2020-05-06 12:01 | Report Abuse

To make it simpler, i bet the best way is to look beyond this year for JAKS. This year is not a very good benchmark as most companies are not performing on papers due to the effect of covid. Once this has passed, it would be easier to make sense of the market as a whole. Whatever that is happening now are just reactions from people and no algorithms or calculation can make sense of human psychology. Anyways, we all should be thankful for all the wonderful information that were given by many people regarding JAKS and that could be utilized as general reference/groundwork for further studies. And as any stocks, no information should be taken as face value and due diligence needs to be done beforehand. Thanks all!

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 12:15 | Report Abuse

So far, I have not come up with my own personal estimates of the earnings of JHDP. All my previous evaluation methods including the latest one represent estimates from the application of methodologies nothing of my personal opinion. I have stated clearly the methodologies used, the assumptions made, the potential shortfalls. If one cannot provides a better derivation of estimates but judge my articles by virtual of personal opinion, which is more trustworthy ?

The valuation method itself is not perfect. I cautioned readers to read with care. Maybe some prefer the article is not written at all as some may not posses qualification to make judgement.

Calling too much sharing a sinful act ? I m speechless ..............

Posted by Henry8833 > 2020-05-06 12:17 | Report Abuse

Agreed with Aseng. Phillip should not encourage good people to share like DK66, Icon8888. Without them, i3 forum will be useless. Pls do not discourage people from sharings. We can evaluate and make our own investment decisions.

Posted by RangerJ > 2020-05-06 12:59 | Report Abuse

Hi DK66, Very kind words, thank you. As icon8888 mentioned, there is reliability (availability) guarantee on top of efficiency guarantee. Efficiency is not constant, as there will be degradation over the PPA period. Personally, I won't lose sleep over these matters at this point. Wishing you all the best. Thank you.

***********
DK66 I m grateful that you created a new ID just to relay the information to us. Really appreciate that.

Do you have information on the effect of efficiency of power plant on earnings ?

06/05/2020 1:06 AM

Posted by Lantern42 > 2020-05-06 13:26 | Report Abuse

Hello DK. Thank you so much for your answers. We are all lucky to have such an astute investor like you. Also thanks to Mr Ooi Teik Bee for sharing. I really don't understand why there are so many people who like to unnecessarily slam people just for fun. Mr DK and Mr Ooi, do please ignore them and continue your sharing. You are two are a bright example for all of us.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 13:30 | Report Abuse

DK66,

do not need to create unnecessary unhappiness for yourself
it is not your job to convince everybody that the facts and figures that you had presented is true and correct , as long as it is reasonable , logical and make sense , it is already good enough.
your job is just to share honestly and truthfully to the best you can
once it is published here , it is subjected to scrutiny or examination of many experts here
so far, I do not see any expert had proven your calculation has doubt ,
the most is that of the probability mentioned about the energy efficiency
icon8888 had already clarified it is covered a big portion by the capacity payment
it is very a very fair and reasonable banker's view
if we want to play safe , just give a reasonable discount factor of around 10%
at the current price level, it is still a big discount to a our first TP of around 2.5

why make our life so difficult ?
why make the readers so confused ?

am I right ?

please kindly correct me if my reasoning is wrong .

thank you.




DK66 >>So far, I have not come up with my own personal estimates of the earnings of JHDP. All my previous evaluation methods including the latest one represent estimates from the application of methodologies nothing of my personal opinion. I have stated clearly the methodologies used, the assumptions made, the potential shortfalls. If one cannot provides a better derivation of estimates but judge my articles by virtual of personal opinion, which is more trustworthy ?

The valuation method itself is not perfect. I cautioned readers to read with care. Maybe some prefer the article is not written at all as some may not posses qualification to make judgement.

Calling too much sharing a sinful act ? I m speechless .............

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 13:38 | Report Abuse

my good friend,

where are you ?

Aseng a satay man also has something sensible to say

where are you hiding ?

everybody is so eager to hear something from you now .




please read my comment in a more positive way
i do not want to be labelled as a trouble maker
i am just being honest
saying what I want
I am encouraging more sifu to share here
my belief is
knowledge is to be shared ,not to sell.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 13:43 | Report Abuse

Dk66,


RangerJ = OTB ?
or
RangerJ = Sslee?

please kindly enlighten us .
if he is OTB, then it will clears my doubts and the misconception of a good man

thank you .

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-06 13:52 | Report Abuse

Dear Aseng,
RangerJ is definately not me.
Thank you