Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 19:25 | Report Abuse

Vinh Tan 1 supercritical plant most likely costlier than subcritical but perhaps Vinh Tan 1 had lower construction - project cost


Posted by SarifahSelinder > May 6, 2020 7:16 PM | Report Abuse

D 2 types IPP cost almost sama jer

Klau subcritical n supercritical profit kan substantially difference knp Hai Duong IPP x guna supercritical jer??

icon888 makes more sense

Posted by Mr.Investor > 2020-05-06 19:29 | Report Abuse

at the end of the day, why argue?

only to show who's ego is bigger...

what a waste of time

as long make money and share price goes up, its a good stock

sheeshhhhh

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-06 19:33 | Report Abuse

Yg ni u kira guna IRR cara mcm mana? Same cara DK66?

probability 

my JAKS earnings projection still stands about max 160M per year

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 19:36 | Report Abuse

fine DKK66, i have given my views and you have given yours - its for the readers to take what they think is true

not worth to debate more on the actual efficiency difference

but its now worth to know how this efficiency difference (even if its 10%) how it affects Hai Duong vs Vinh Tan 1 based on PPA condition

your article on efficiency effects is what we need to verify and if both plant will use the same "floor efficiency level'

Posted by Sky Liew > 2020-05-06 19:43 | Report Abuse

Drop 3 sen already like end of the world ah
Haha

Posted by Mr.Investor > 2020-05-06 19:46 | Report Abuse

like i said, waste of time to argue

talk so much research and probabilities...still dunno can buy or not

aiyoyo

stupid to argue

scared, then dun buy stocks lo

lol

Posted by DJoker89 > 2020-05-06 19:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by DJoker89 > 2020-05-06 19:53 | Report Abuse

1.10....tq tq
Sold.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-06 19:57 | Report Abuse

Sarifah pun rasa meeting wit team Andy not adequately addressed kat ni

Tapi

DK66 peer comparison n OTB stil bet big is enough confirmation tat JAKS kan great

Posted by DJoker89 > 2020-05-06 20:01 | Report Abuse

Yeah jaks is a superrrrr counter
Super laggard ...:)

That's why make everyone so desperate to sell hard

Posted by Sky Liew > 2020-05-06 21:26 | Report Abuse

Actually 76 hold until now
Waiting see q3 Vietnam plant contributes result

Posted by Sky Liew > 2020-05-06 21:28 | Report Abuse

Don’t argue with that kind want day trade de, they want gamble like BAnker player at casino fast round
Who is the god can always bet sell at the most high and buy at the lower . That need See luck one.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 21:43 | Report Abuse

probability ,

this is what i had gathered, a very crude calculation


this is taken from the table you provided .

Power generation cost (US¢/kW) :
Subcritical plant : 4.0- 4.5 , Average=4.25
Supercritical plant : 3.5-3.7 Average =0.65
Difference = 0.65
% = 18%

our argument is based DK66 recent relative valuation
Duration : 1 year
my common sense tell me , 18% more in production cost does not mean a net decrease in net profit in a real situation . it is definitely not a straight line proportional . a discount factor around 40%-60% should be acceptable . this is my own assumption you can have yours, if you can have a more reliable figure , please do not forget to share here and let me know. do not quietly share with your group and leave me out , i will be very unhappy

my discount factor = 50%
production cost different =9%


Adjustment made to DK66 calculation

potential earnings attributable to Jaks

@30% = RM652m x 30% = RM196m x 91%
= RM 178
= EPS RM0.27

conclusion : our first TP of RM2.5 is fair and reasonable



conclusion remark :

all our calculation is just a forecast or rough estimate
do not demand for a accurate figure
a reasonable and logical one is already already good enough


recommendation : GOOD BUY

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 21:47 | Report Abuse

DK66,

Any comment on my calculation and assumption
very kindergarten ?

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 21:52 | Report Abuse

@Aseng, very fair starting point: 18% higher fuel cost.

I will show how that will impact the bottom line shortly based on DK66's article.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 21:53 | Report Abuse

sharifah,

kalau IRR

nanti aku kire ikut icon8888 projected earning

tunggu for my good news





Posted by SarifahSelinder > May 6, 2020 7:33 PM | Report Abuse

Yg ni u kira guna IRR cara mcm mana? Same cara DK66?

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 21:57 | Report Abuse

here is not primary school mathematics

do not simply hentam

take (icon8888 irr projection + dk66 projection) /2 x ( margin of error about 9%)



Posted by probability > May 6, 2020 9:52 PM | Report Abuse

@Aseng, very fair starting point: 18% higher fuel cost.

I will show how that will impact the bottom line shortly based on DK66's article.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 21:58 | Report Abuse

I do not agree on the 18% higher fuel cost as the difference in efficiency is only 10%
-----------------
Aseng DK66,

Any comment on my calculation and assumption
very kindergarten ?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 21:59 | Report Abuse

DK66 This article showed (page 5) that current supercritical design has an average of 10% (4 percentage point) higher efficiency than subcritical design, not 25%

https://www.worldcoal.org/file_validate.php?file=Cornerstone_Volume3_I...
06/05/2020 4:51 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 22:02 | Report Abuse

Aseng, you haven't consider the higher O&M costs for supercritical design
----------------
DK66 Supercritical design has higher O&M cost which will offsets part of the benefit of cost savings over subcritical design. Each USD10 increase in O&M will results in annual extra cost of USD12m.

Coal has long been the workhorse of the power generation market. It may be in the twilight of its reign as environmental policymakers look to limit their reliance on coal-fired power, but its strong all-round financial characteristics will make coal economically competitive in the absence of high costs for carbon emissions or skyrocketing coal prices. O&M costs aren’t spectacularly low for coal, with the cheapest subcritical plants coming in at $43 per kW, the cost rising steadily through the more efficient supercritical and modern ultrasupercritical coal combustion technologies before arriving at $88 per kW in the case of the less-polluting and carbon capture-ready integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants.

A major driver for O&M costs at coal-fired plants is monitoring and servicing the many moving parts involved in the generation process, including turbines and generating sets, coal yard conveyors and handling systems. As coal power stations are often baseload plants, these components are often expected to operate continuously while being subjected to heavy loads and high temperatures, as well as varying levels of dust, dirt and moisture. Innovations in predictive maintenance and asset optimisation have helped bring down costs over the years, but O&M expenditure in this highly mature sector of the industry is now expected to remain stable through to 2035.

https://www.power-technology.com/features/featurepower-plant-om-how-do...
06/05/2020 3:58 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 22:02 | Report Abuse

Aseng, I do not wish to get into this discussion again. Too many assumptions.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 22:05 | Report Abuse

Aseng, You want to be sure you need to know the full specification of the designs of the power plant of both JHDP and Vinh Tan 1. Don't simply make assumptions, we can be very wrong.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 22:07 | Report Abuse

that is why i Include a margin of error of around 50%

DK66 Aseng, you haven't consider the higher O&M costs for supercritical design

Posted by Antifakeguru > 2020-05-06 22:11 | Report Abuse

Takda guna la. What tactic also no use. See djia

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 22:12 | Report Abuse

Why make thing complicated? Just let those who are not comfortable with the estimate take whatever discount they like

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 22:14 | Report Abuse

margin of safety should be a good tool now.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2020-05-06 22:15 | Report Abuse

Quarter result will be out in a few week time.
Let the numbers tell the story.
Of course, importantly the keyword of progress completion(100%) and COD date is vital.

Posted by Antifakeguru > 2020-05-06 22:19 | Report Abuse

The big problem is every qr no mention about power plant. Think about it

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 22:20 | Report Abuse

OK, since DK66 is not agreeing we should not go on the same path on efficiency debate again.

Lets just focus on how the efficiency affects profitability:

DK66 derived 10% higher fuel consumption with efficiency as per below respectively:

36% for subcritical

40% for supercritical

.......


Based on DK66's article below:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-14-story-h1484838111-Jaks_Resources_Effect_of_Plant_Efficiency_On_Profit.jsp

Profit = percentage differential in plant efficiency above the agreed efficiency x Revenue

Therefore, potential EP profit of Vinh Tan 1 (efficiency at 40% for supercritical) based on Mong Duong 2 / Hai Duong (efficiency at 36% for subcritical) revenue for 2019 is;

Profit = (40.0% - 36.0%) / 36.0% x USD343m

Profit = 11% x USD343m = USD37.7m (1)

Meaning UsSD 37.7m is the extra profit Vinh Tan 1 would make above Mong Duong 2 per year.

This is about RM 158m. If you remove that on Vinh Tan 1 reported 2019 profit of RM 652m, you get 494m which would be reflective of subcritical plants like Hai Duong & Mong duong 2 annual profit.

The above at 30% stakes will be : 148m/yr for JAKS
...............................................

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-06 22:22 | Report Abuse

I have a feeling that some people are just 鸡蛋里挑骨头 ( meaning simply trying to look for a bone in an egg !!
For me layman investor , i would just go by DK66's simple & straightforward peer comparison method . It is good enough & convincing for my decision making .
Dear bro DK66 & Aseng Gor , pls don't waste your time to delve further into those unending trivial issues . This is my suggestion .
TQ

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-06 22:25 | Report Abuse

probability's 18% increase in production cost warrants a direct proportional decrease in net earning is definite incorrect , there are many factors that is not easy for an outsider to count without the management guidance
but we wish to know more about the potential earning
although it is impossible to get the 100% accurate figure , a rough figure not far from the true one is still possible. Your recent relative valuation and icon8888 IRR projection is a good one
i strongly believe your recent article of relative valuation is the best methodology and the most reliable one so far , the margin of error is the most 10% . that is already very very very GOOD.

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-06 22:27 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro....no need further elaboration from ur goodself...what has been said ..enlightened n explained many times over... there will still be people not satisfied with your evaluation of Ms JAKS worth...take it from me ...close this charter ..me n other loyal medium n longterm followers have oredi placed our <BETS>...so i say ...LET IT ROLL....no more kepala pusing for u ...u ve done well ..no denying this fact ...ok bro !!!

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 22:33 | Report Abuse

Ok fine, the forumer here had made up their mind that the efficiency difference will not have any implication on the earnings between Hai Duong and Vinh Tan 1.

I just expressed my points as i thought people wanted to know the negative aspects. But appears prefer to close one eye and think positively as per their wishes.

I think i have done my part on what i felt sincerely.

Posted by jlwinstock > 2020-05-06 22:34 | Report Abuse

Perhaps you may google China coal plant efficiency benchmark. A subcritical 300MW unit power plant raising steam temparatures to 600 c is capable of efficiency rate to 42.8%

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-06 22:34 | Report Abuse

If some people are seeing Jaks as not a worthy investment for NOW , then why bother so much ??? There are so many other counters to choose from !!!

Posted by jlwinstock > 2020-05-06 22:34 | Report Abuse

Check it out in google. I do not how to post it

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 22:34 | Report Abuse

Because i need someone who can convince me otherwise

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 22:36 | Report Abuse

already explained that it is on LHV basis which reports 10% higher value than HHV

Posted by jlwinstock > May 6, 2020 10:34 PM | Report Abuse

Perhaps you may google China coal plant efficiency benchmark. A subcritical 300MW unit power plant raising steam temparatures to 600 c is capable of efficiency rate to 42.8%

Posted by jlwinstock > 2020-05-06 22:36 | Report Abuse

China Coal Plant : New Efficient Benchmark

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-06 22:47 | Report Abuse

Dear bro DK66 , just becos of 1 person , you are prepared to spend umpteen sleepless nights ???

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 22:52 | Report Abuse

Just found another article. 40.2% vs 42%

https://www.ctc-n.org/technologies/pulverised-coal-combustion-higher-efficiency

Steam cycle Subcritical Supercritical Ultra-supercritical (best available) Ultra-supercritical (AD700)
Steam conditions 180 bar (540oC) 250 bar (560oC) 300 bar (600oC) 350 bar (700oC)
Net output (MW) 458 458 456 457
Net efficiency (%) 40.2 42.0 43.4 45.6
CO2 emissions (t/MWh-net) 0.83 0.80 0.77 0.73

I will stop here, VIN3133

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-06 22:56 | Report Abuse

Dear bro DK66 , if the person is uncle KYY equivalent , then i would say it is worthwhile taking up the challenge !!

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-06 22:57 | Report Abuse

good for u DK66 ...time for a deserved good rest ...no more notes from u ...ok

Posted by probability > 2020-05-06 22:58 | Report Abuse

Dk66, it states pulverized fuel (PF). I dont think we can use that for Vinh Tan 1 and Hai Duong comparison. I am quite confident on the difference we derived earlier, we should not spend time on these figures anymore.

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-06 22:58 | Report Abuse

what is done cannot be undone ...so said SHAKE D SPEAR !!!...wt regards to purchase of Ms JAKS shares

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 22:59 | Report Abuse

VIN3133, I know you are saying this to make me feel better but I cannot agree on this. I treat everyone here equal. I do appreciate probability's contribution here though we disagree on many fronts.

--------------
VIN3133 Dear bro DK66 , if the person is uncle KYY equivalent , then i would say it is worthwhile taking up the challenge !!

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-06 23:00 | Report Abuse

probability bro...cukup lah ..well done both of u n DK66...well done

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 23:05 | Report Abuse

Probability, I am an accountant. I search the internet for information and I constantly found new information. In fact, both vinh tan 1 and JHDP are using CFB technology which is a dominant technology of china. Generalized average data should not be used as a guide. As I have said, I do not wish to carry on. This topic is really beyond my expertise.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-06 23:06 | Report Abuse

elbrutus, yes, I should stop. Thank you

Posted by jlwinstock > 2020-05-06 23:09 | Report Abuse

If an efficiency rate of 42% can be achieved by Hai Duong subcritical power plant, Can see a high chance of profit realise in future close to DK66 earlier estimation. With CPEEC vast experience and amount of time and money invested, are they just going to build a mediocre power plant to procduce mediocre output. Think about it!! Most importantlyc completion for both of the units on time and start COD....That.s when the exciting time begins.