Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-07 15:58 | Report Abuse

Probability ,

please tell me honestly

IRR analysis and Relative Valuation, which one is more reliable to forecast the profit of a power plant. I do not want to ask DK66 because I already know the answer.

you do not need to reply if your answer is same as mine. just quietly buy some is already good enough because I am very happy if we can huat together .

Posted by probability > 2020-05-07 15:58 | Report Abuse

No matter what, you are definitely a gem in i3 and i appreciate that a lot. The most sincere & hardworking information provider in i3 - no doubt about it.

Thanks DK66

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-07 16:01 | Report Abuse

Probability, I thank you for your discussion. I apologize if have been harsh in requesting for your IRR table against your wish.

Thank you

-------------
probability No matter what, you are definitely a gem in i3 and i appreciate that a lot. The most sincere & hardworking information provider in i3 - no doubt about it.

Thanks DK66
07/05/2020 3:58 PM

Posted by probability > 2020-05-07 16:04 | Report Abuse

@aseng, relative evaluation could be more reliable.

However, its good to have a model to explain the observed so that you can use the model elsewhere reliably....

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-07 16:16 | Report Abuse

probability,

we are friend for so long , I know what you are talking about
you are trying to tell how the IRR changes when interest is excluded
but what I am telling you , you do not seem to understand
if we can find a more reliable valuation , then IRR will help to tell how correct is the first method

we must move in the right direction, if not , the readers here will be getting more and more confused.


DK66 ,

am I right ?

just a pasar malam man common sense .

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-07 16:17 | Report Abuse

probability

U ni a nonsense

Post details x nak post keep talking round n round

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-07 16:20 | Report Abuse

probability,


I am very happy finally you understand what i wish to convey to you

you are one of the great sifu I follow closely you know

I am very happy .

I do not know how come sometimes I can be that clever one


hahaha......

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-07 16:20 | Report Abuse

x pernah dengar ke let's d figure speaks for itself

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-07 16:22 | Report Abuse

Dear All,

Let me briefly summarise my discussion with Probability on the matter whether interest cost should be included in the project cash flow pattern when calculating the internal rate of return, IRR.

I said YES but Probability said NO.

My strongest argument : Vinh tan 1 will not be reporting RM651m profit in 2019 had it done its projection of IRR excluding interest costs. Its earnings may be less that half it is reporting. In addition, Vietnam government has allowed debt ratio of 75:25 to be applied in deriving a maximum project IRR of 12% under certain agreed parameters such as utilization hours of 6500.

Probability argument : It is the text book formula

Decide wisely for yourself.
07/05/2020 4:20 PM

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-07 16:23 | Report Abuse

Sarifah,


jangan marah
probability kawan baik Aseng
Aseng kawan baik lu

conclusion : probability kawan baik sarifah

ok ?

jangan marah har....

Ramadhan tau...

semoga semua sihat gembira.....

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-07 16:24 | Report Abuse

bye-bye

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-07 16:24 | Report Abuse

Follow Vinh Tan 1

Klau Vihn Tan 1 is an apple

Hai Duong IPP is an apple

Follow Vinh Tan 1 is comparing an apple to an apple

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-07 16:30 | Report Abuse

Aseng, Yes. IRR is not a subject that is easily understood

--------------
we must move in the right direction, if not , the readers here will be getting more and more confused.


DK66 ,

am I right ?

Posted by probability > 2020-05-07 16:30 | Report Abuse

@sarifah:

best thing is we can derive Mong Duong 2's earnings

what we have is cash distribution currently

In my opinion Mong Dong 2 will be an apple to apple comparison

Vinh Tan 1 is a pine-apple

jangan marah dengan i

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-07 16:34 | Report Abuse

Sarifah think mcm mana critical x relevant sgt

EVN guaranteed IRR 12% to both Vihn Tan 1 and Hai Duong n both funding structure 75:25 make them apple to apple enough

Posted by probability > 2020-05-07 16:35 | Report Abuse

sorry sarifah, where is the info that EVN guranteed 12% IRR to Vinh Tan 1?

kindly share

Posted by DickyMe > 2020-05-07 16:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-07 16:37 | Report Abuse

12% IRR EVN guaranteed only d capacity payment n doesn't include energy payment.....

Posted by probability > 2020-05-07 16:39 | Report Abuse

please share the source of the IRR information you have for Vinh Tan 1

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-07 16:40 | Report Abuse

Knew u r going to ask

Can't b too difference isn't it?

Anyway where do u see it is not 12% IRR?


probability sorry sarifah, where is the info that EVN guranteed 12% IRR to Vinh Tan 1? 

kindly share

07/05/2020 4:35 PM

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-07 16:46 | Report Abuse

Taksiran Sarifah EVN granted 12% IRR to ALL the IPP at the time when Hai Duong was approved

12% IRR mcm mana the IPP companies want to twist n turn with their funding critical sama mana EVN x kisah

Posted by probability > 2020-05-07 16:49 | Report Abuse

sarifah, kamu yg kata Hai Duong and Vinh Tan 1 is apple to apple...tapi i kata Vinh Tan 1 pine-apple sebab i estimate IRR dia around 16%

sebab tu i kata jangan banding dgn Vinh Tan 1

Klu you ada bukti IRR Vinh Tan 1 sama at 12%...then berita baik la untuk Hai Duong...

harap mengerti

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-07 16:52 | Report Abuse

I m truly surprised by the number of visit to my article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP" close to 8500 last count. Maybe the intense discussion here in Jaks forum has attracted many visitors.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-07 16:53 | Report Abuse

contohnya Klu you lihat free cash flow of Vinh Tan 1 is around 981m

tapi cash distribution from Mong Duong 2 cuma RM 621m

so kemungkinan ada perbezaan ketara antara subcritical and supercritical plant seperti yang saya cuba terangkan

Posted by probability > 2020-05-07 16:58 | Report Abuse

thats like 40% lower than Vinh Tan 1

trust it does give some weightage on my estimation that Hai Duong earnings could be 'much much' lesser than Vinh Tan 1

Posted by Investee > 2020-05-07 17:11 | Report Abuse

Actually the way Icon calculated FCF may not be so correct. The interest is separated from the principal repayment. It will be a higher fixed repayment that covers P+I, though I will gradually reduce and more to settle P later on. Hence, the FCF is a lot lower during loan tenure and higher after that. With discounting factor, this will diminish the NPV.

Also I think IRR should cover U$1.87b capital investment only without debt and tax.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-07 17:39 | Report Abuse

Klau u derived u 16% based in Vihn Tan 1 reported results tis 16% IRR probably is the sum of capacity payment + energy payment

Capacity payment = 12%
Energy payment 4%

Hai Duong also can hit mid teens IRR

Capacity payment = 12%
Energy payment = sales of electricity



probability sarifah, kamu yg kata Hai Duong and Vinh Tan 1 is apple to apple...tapi i kata Vinh Tan 1 pine-apple sebab i estimate IRR dia around 16% 

sebab tu i kata jangan banding dgn Vinh Tan 1 

Klu you ada bukti IRR Vinh Tan 1 sama at 12%...then berita baik la untuk Hai Duong... 

harap mengerti

07/05/2020 4:49 PM

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-07 17:50 | Report Abuse

The problem is the term IRR is being used very very loosely n as such means different things to different ppl n on context

As Sarifah said before wat u said has merit too


Investee 


Also I think IRR should cover U$1.87b capital investment only without debt and tax.

07/05/2020 5:11 PM

Posted by edkfc > 2020-05-07 18:12 | Report Abuse

Just to refresh our memory.....at least 15% IRR was the term used here and published in The Edge , May13 2015 !


"......Sources say the project’s IRR is at least 15% because the power purchase agreement is on a take-or-pay basis, which requires Vietnam Electricity to pay for the power generated whether or not there is demand for it.

The agreement also has cost-pass-through mechanisms, including any volatility in fuel costs and exchange rates. JPHD will be paid in US dollars, which will increase JAKS’ exposure to foreign exchange volatility as it will have to convert the money into dong to pay its operational costs.

For starters, a 15% IRR is akin to the contracts signed by Tenaga with the local first-generation independent power producers, says the source, adding that Vietnam Electricity is committed to take up all the energy generated by the power plant or pay the generation costs...."
amarul Azhar
/
The Edge Malaysia

May 13, 2015 19:00 pm +08

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-07 20:06 | Report Abuse

When you want to convince someone in a virtual space like i3. You need to give facts and figures. You need to show your computation. You need to be able to withstand challenges.

This is a place where everyone is behind a mask. You don't expect to have trust like a father to his sons. You want to convince readers, you show proof. You can't just say "I expect ....." without showing your spreadsheets.

I encourage respectful challenges. Neither of us may win or lose but it will make the readers more confidence in their decisions.

During the course of my journey with Jaks, only 3 challengers have earned my respect, Mr kcchongnz, Mr Sslee and Mr Probability. I hope to find more.

Thank you

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-07 20:39 | Report Abuse

bros....at d end of d day ...readers at this forum would definitely be interested to know whether u sifus would reconmend this stock for investment currently at this price ...after having asking this ...nobody should hold u guys to responsibility shud this matter do NOT turn out right ...agreed ???

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-07 20:46 | Report Abuse

Great !! Well done , DK66
Next one ??
From Sabah ?? :-)
-----------------------------------------------------------
DK66>During the course of my journey with Jaks, only 3 challengers have earned my respect, Mr kcchongnz, Mr Sslee and Mr Probability. I hope to find more.

Thank you
07/05/2020 8:06 PM

Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-07 20:56 | Report Abuse

lets c DJI break 24k tonite

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-07 21:00 | Report Abuse

elbrutus, this is putting me in a very awkward situation. Because my answer will be "yes" but I m not buying anymore but I m also not selling at this price. Believe me, i m sincere and I m not trying to be funny.

My last call to be buy was when the price was at RM0.80.

So, from now onwards, my best answer will be "I M NOT SELLING AT THIS PRICE"

Is this a good answer ?

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-07 21:15 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro...u have stressed this point before ...i always remembered ur 1st TP ie rm2.50 ...same as mine ...ur point as clear as crystal water...AVANTI then Ms JAKS !!!

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-07 21:18 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/coldeyed_dear_newbie/2020-04-28-story-h1506164623.jsp

Perhaps by reading Master investor ColdEye's 2 chapters can help those at a crossroads now .

Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-07 21:57 | Report Abuse

DJI near to 24K

Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-07 21:58 | Report Abuse

resistence broken, UP UP UP

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 09:12 | Report Abuse

If there is any information anyone wish to share with me ONLY, you may email to i3dk66@gmail.com. Your information will not be shared in i3 without your permission.

Thank you

Posted by Radeon > 2020-05-08 09:14 | Report Abuse

ok, buy ...

Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-08 09:17 | Report Abuse

no buy q..zzz..sleepy mode again

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 09:21 | Report Abuse

If there is any expert with information which may suggest any fault in my latest article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP", you may email me at i3dk66@gmail.com. I shall timely amend my article. Your sharing will be greatly appreciated.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 10:17 | Report Abuse

I am accountant, I know accounting treatment can have profound effect on the reporting of earnings especially when dealing with a transaction which spans as long as 25 years. Mong Dong II started operation in April 2015 and has written back as much USD203m when it adopted the new accounting standard in 2018 with USD40m increase in profit in 2018 alone as a result of change in accounting treatment.

Vinh Tan 1 is still using the old accounting standard. If JHDP is adopting the new accounting standard, It may be reporting higher profit than Vinh Tan 1.

Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-08 10:35 | Report Abuse

oh yea..1.5mil sapu..banker master mind push up, engine activated again

Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-08 10:35 | Report Abuse

*2.5mil

Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-08 10:37 | Report Abuse

who havent buy, fast fast buy, airplane is nt waiting ppl

Posted by probability > 2020-05-08 10:58 | Report Abuse

DK66, are you able to see Mong Duong 2's profit for 2019.

What i checked with the IR is that its only cash distribution show on their reports.


Posted by DK66 > May 8, 2020 10:17 AM | Report Abuse

I am accountant, I know accounting treatment can have profound effect on the reporting of earnings especially when dealing with a transaction which spans as long as 25 years. Mong Dong II started operation in April 2015 and has written back as much USD203m when it adopted the new accounting standard in 2018 with USD40m increase in profit in 2018 alone as a result of change in accounting treatment.

Vinh Tan 1 is still using the old accounting standard. If JHDP is adopting the new accounting standard, It may be reporting higher profit than Vinh Tan 1.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:01 | Report Abuse

Yes, can't tell the profit only distribution
-------------
probability DK66, are you able to see Mong Duong 2's profit for 2019.

What i checked with the IR is that its only cash distribution show on their reports.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-08 11:04 | Report Abuse

as such, you are of the opinion the cash distribution will be about the same as their profit and not their free cash flow i guess.

any justification on the above assumption

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 11:06 | Report Abuse

Good morning my good friends

Congratulation DK66
I am very happy for your success
especially your generosity and your kindness to share with us the best you know.
If you had chosen, not to share but to sell, then I do not think you will gain such a glory that no amount of money can not buy.

Am I right.



DK66// I m truly surprised by the number of visit to my article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP" close to 8500 last count. Maybe the intense discussion here in Jaks forum has attracted many visitors.
07/05/2020 4:52 PM