Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:17 | Report Abuse

This is never my assumption

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probability as such, you are of the opinion the cash distribution will be about the same as their profit and not their free cash flow i guess.

any justification on the above assumption

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:20 | Report Abuse

Aseng, Thank you for your compliment. I believe sharing can bring good deeds.
-----------------
Aseng Good morning my good friends

Congratulation DK66
I am very happy for your success
especially your generosity and your kindness to share with us the best you know.
If you had chosen, not to share but to sell, then I do not think you will gain such a glory that no amount of money can not buy.

Am I right.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 11:22 | Report Abuse

probability ,

what is cash distribution ?
more specific do you mean dividend ?

Posted by probability > 2020-05-08 11:23 | Report Abuse

ok not assumption, but evident then

any reasoning - why the cash distribution is considered as profit

e.g, payout dividend payout cannot exceed profit? is the cash distribution the first place equivalent to dividend?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:25 | Report Abuse

probability, you misunderstood, I never made any relationship between profit and distribution. They are different matters.

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probability ok not assumption, but evident then

any reasoning - why the cash distribution is considered as profit

e.g, payout dividend payout cannot exceed profit? is the cash distribution the first place equivalent to dividend?
08/05/2020 1

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:26 | Report Abuse

earnings and distributions are unrelated

Posted by probability > 2020-05-08 11:27 | Report Abuse

ok then you did talk about Mong Duong profit, but the only source of info we have is cash distribution from their reports

so i am puzzled where you are getting this profit numbers

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 11:30 | Report Abuse

I am not well versed in accounting terms
please kindly enlighten me is your cash distribution means dividend
so that i can follow your discussion accurately

thank you

Posted by probability > 2020-05-08 11:31 | Report Abuse

@aseng, i dont know..thats why i am discussing with DK66

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 11:33 | Report Abuse

DK66

what is your definition of cash distribution?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:33 | Report Abuse

My article on mong duong II is a only an estimation of earnings based on pieces of information gathered, nothing conclusive. Please read the report with care.

Jaks Resources – Peer Comparison With Mong Duong II
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-04-29-story204451-Jaks_Resources_Peer_Comparison_With_Mong_Duong_II.jsp

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probability ok then you did talk about Mong Duong profit, but the only source of info we have is cash distribution from their reports

so i am puzzled where you are getting this profit numbers

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 11:34 | Report Abuse

if not , i do not see both of you had set a clear footing to discuss.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:34 | Report Abuse

Aseng, cash distribution normally means dividend but it can be capital distribution

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:36 | Report Abuse

Because Mong Duong II used the term "distribution", It is most likely dividend in nature

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:38 | Report Abuse

I m not surprised if the topic on distributions and earnings would be hard to understand without accounting background.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 11:39 | Report Abuse

thank you

i roughly know what both of you are talking about now .

thank you

Posted by probability > 2020-05-08 11:39 | Report Abuse

ok thanks DK66,

their cash distribution for 2019 did come to the profit level Vinh Tan 1 reported

if this is true, you can establish a very high degree of certainty that Hai Duong can perform similarly

the IR of AES corp did not want to reveal much to me unfortunately


Posted by DK66 > May 8, 2020 11:36 AM | Report Abuse

Because Mong Duong II used the term "distribution", It is most likely dividend in nature

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 11:41 | Report Abuse

cash distribution is a very vague term
we got to get it right first

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:44 | Report Abuse

Although cash distribution does provide some indication on earnings. However, it is also dangerous for someone without full accounting understanding to fully rely on that notion. Better not in my opinion.

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probability ok thanks DK66,

their cash distribution for 2019 did come to the profit level Vinh Tan 1 reported

if this is true, you can establish a very high degree of certainty that Hai Duong can perform similarly

the IR of AES corp did not want to reveal much to me unfortunately

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:47 | Report Abuse

As for the information below, it is obtained from 2018 AR as companies are required to report the impact on earnings due to change in accounting treatment.
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DK66 I am accountant, I know accounting treatment can have profound effect on the reporting of earnings especially when dealing with a transaction which spans as long as 25 years. Mong Dong II started operation in April 2015 and has written back as much USD203m when it adopted the new accounting standard in 2018 with USD40m increase in profit in 2018 alone as a result of change in accounting treatment.

Vinh Tan 1 is still using the old accounting standard. If JHDP is adopting the new accounting standard, It may be reporting higher profit than Vinh Tan 1.
08/05/2020 10:17 AM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:51 | Report Abuse

Accountant must be careful with their definitions otherwise their backside can be exposed.

But in Mong Duong II case, I can assure you that it is quite safe to refer cash distribution as dividend.

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Aseng cash distribution is a very vague term
we got to get it right first
08/05/2020 11:41 AM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:52 | Report Abuse

For mong duong II, capital distribution will most like be made towards tail end of the concession period.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-08 11:57 | Report Abuse

Glad to hear this.

Did buy some JAKS today..

Posted by DK66 > May 8, 2020 11:52 AM | Report Abuse

For mong duong II, capital distribution will most like be made towards tail end of the concession period.



Posted by DK66 > May 8, 2020 11:51 AM | Report Abuse

Accountant must be careful with their definitions otherwise their backside can be exposed.

But in Mong Duong II case, I can assure you that it is quite safe to refer cash distribution as dividend.

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Aseng cash distribution is a very vague term
we got to get it right first
08/05/2020 11:41 AM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 11:58 | Report Abuse

Wonderful !, welcome back, Probability !

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probability Glad to hear this.

Did buy some JAKS today..

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 12:00 | Report Abuse

Hng33 probably won't be back for a while as he fears the results for the next 2 quarters.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-08 12:00 | Report Abuse

yeah....best is if they can show some sign that thwy will increase their stakes to 40%

may be sifu OTB can dig this info

Posted by JJchan > 2020-05-08 12:02 | Report Abuse

"Dai Soh" (Dso) will pull back this afternoon to give room for Jaks to push to 1.20----I hope

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 12:03 | Report Abuse

If Jaks won't increase its effective stake in JHDP to 40%, we should sell. I m not joking !!

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 12:05 | Report Abuse

what is "Dai Soh" (Dso) ?

Posted by OTB > 2020-05-08 12:10 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > May 8, 2020 12:00 PM | Report Abuse

yeah....best is if they can show some sign that thwy will increase their stakes to 40%

may be sifu OTB can dig this info
------------------
Ans :
Jaks will increase their stake to 40% once COD is in place.
May be less than a year after COD.
I was told in this way.
Thank you.

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-08 12:14 | Report Abuse

DK66, I will come back to Jaks after Q1 result release, the reason is Jaks in short term will face financial stretch due to pre- opening expense for its new pacific mall and new pacific office tower. Longer LAD and higher evolve mall and delay in IPP construction progress due to pandemic, all added burden to Jaks financially. I not only cover good prospect of its IPP in 2021 onward, but also take into account short term setback face by Jaks in 2020.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 12:19 | Report Abuse

Ok, Q1 results may be delayed to June. You may have not be able to endure the pain to see the price shoot up due to unit 1 COD and jump back in before the Q1 results.

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hng33 DK66, I will come back to Jaks after Q1 result release, the reason is Jaks in short term will face financial stretch due to pre- opening expense for its new pacific mall and new pacific office tower. Longer LAD and higher evolve mall and delay in IPP construction progress due to pandemic, all added burden to Jaks financially. I not only cover good prospect of its IPP in 2021 onward, but also take into account short term setback face by Jaks in 2020.
08/05/2020 12:14 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 12:20 | Report Abuse

Q1 results, whatever it may be, won't be able to suppress the price surge due to the optimism of COD.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 12:21 | Report Abuse

Dear OTB, Thank you for the information

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OTB Posted by probability > May 8, 2020 12:00 PM | Report Abuse

yeah....best is if they can show some sign that thwy will increase their stakes to 40%

may be sifu OTB can dig this info
------------------
Ans :
Jaks will increase their stake to 40% once COD is in place.
May be less than a year after COD.
I was told in this way.
Thank you.
08/05/2020 12:10 PM

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-08 12:26 | Report Abuse

DK66, my portfolio already in cypark, solar and waste to energy power concession. Jaks COD will only start in Q3 as indicate by your article earlier due to pandemic, right?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 12:29 | Report Abuse

Hng33, Q3 is only my estimation. Do not rely fully on it. Can be earlier or later.

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hng33 DK66, my portfolio already in cypark, solar and waste to energy power concession. Jaks COD will only start in Q3 as indicate by your article earlier due to pandemic, right?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-08 12:29 | Report Abuse

DK66

Given ur profit projections10% ni kan dibeli at PE apa agak nya?


DK66 Dear OTB, Thank you for the information 

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OTB Posted by probability > May 8, 2020 12:00 PM | Report Abuse 

yeah....best is if they can show some sign that thwy will increase their stakes to 40% 

may be sifu OTB can dig this info 
------------------ 
Ans : 
Jaks will increase their stake to 40% once COD is in place. 
May be less than a year after COD. 
I was told in this way. 
Thank you. 
08/05/2020 12:10 PM

08/05/2020 12:21 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 12:30 | Report Abuse

But even news of synchronisation and reliability test can send the stock soaring. Please be informed.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 12:33 | Report Abuse

Sarifah, about 4
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SarifahSelinder DK66

Given ur profit projections10% ni kan dibeli at PE apa agak nya?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 12:35 | Report Abuse

sarifah, more importantly, risk free as already COD

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-08 12:54 | Report Abuse

Yes all dah settled by then

Risk free

6x is good

4x is simply great

Posted by GGecko > 2020-05-08 13:17 | Report Abuse

Dai Soh DSO is datasonic, it runs faster than JAKS this morning..at one time up 8 sen

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 13:25 | Report Abuse

Thank you for telling
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GGecko Dai Soh DSO is datasonic, it runs faster than JAKS this morning..at one time up 8 sen
08/05/2020 1:17 PM

Posted by probability > 2020-05-08 13:36 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/05/08/after-swift-virus-success-vietnam-is-open-for-business

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 15:03 | Report Abuse

a good reason to accept RM196M is safe and reasonable

DK66 //. Vinh Tan 1 is still using the old accounting standard. If JHDP is adopting the new accounting standard, It may be reporting higher profit than Vinh Tan 1.



DK66// vinh Tan 1 80:20 loan ratio

another reason to accept RM196M is safe and reasonable

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 15:06 | Report Abuse

DK66,

I read through your Mong Duong II peer comparative valuation

VINH tan 1 is more convincing

now i see the wonder of capacity payment

thank you

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 15:07 | Report Abuse

no wonder you said JHDP is a banker to the Vietnam Government

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 15:10 | Report Abuse

Probabability ,

i am very happy to come back to the boat again.

my good brother ,
no harm to be theoretical , too theoretical definitely not very good .

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 15:12 | Report Abuse

hng33,

i never deny you are alway very smart and clever




hng33>> DK66, I will come back to Jaks after Q1 result release, the reason is Jaks in short term will face financial stretch due to pre- opening expense for its new pacific mall and new pacific office tower. Longer LAD and higher evolve mall and delay in IPP construction progress due to pandemic, all added burden to Jaks financially. I not only cover good prospect of its IPP in 2021 onward, but also take into account short term setback face by Jaks in 2020

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 15:18 | Report Abuse

Agree.



DK66 >>Q1 results, whatever it may be, won't be able to suppress the price surge due to the optimism of COD.
08/05/2020 12:20 PM