Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 15:30 | Report Abuse

Sarifah, aku tak berepa faham soalan mu

apa maksud 10% profit projection, banding dengan data apa?


SarifahSelinder// DK66, Given ur profit projections10% ni kan dibeli at PE apa agak nya?

Posted by probability > 2020-05-08 15:50 | Report Abuse

the additional stakes Jaks could acquire and the return from the acquisition (in terms of PE)

Posted by Aseng > May 8, 2020 3:30 PM | Report Abuse

Sarifah, aku tak berepa faham soalan mu

apa maksud 10% profit projection, banding dengan data apa?


SarifahSelinder// DK66, Given ur profit projections10% ni kan dibeli at PE apa agak nya?

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-08 16:01 | Report Abuse

probability ,

thanks

still too early to talk

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-08 16:20 | Report Abuse

Be Patient. Wait Q1 see Andy got mention about Power plant or not. If not then GG

Posted by Radeon > 2020-05-08 16:23 | Report Abuse

buy..

Posted by zhexiangxd > 2020-05-08 16:28 | Report Abuse

why not moving zz

Posted by Investee > 2020-05-08 16:44 | Report Abuse

Icon's projection double counted the capital investment funded by debt, as he took debt principal repayment (75% of 1.87b) over years and initial upfront investment (1.87b). He should take 25% of 1.87b as initial upfront investment which will lower the earnings in later years.

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-08 16:46 | Report Abuse

Come invest my company more better. Order book is like mountain.
Serbadk
Kpower
Scib

3 Years can make you fortune

Posted by karimboss > 2020-05-08 17:30 | Report Abuse

https://www.facebook.com/cgscimbmy/videos/693450874724254/

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 17:34 | Report Abuse

If I may answer, Icon8888 is calculating project IRR, not equity IRR.
----------------
Investee Icon's projection double counted the capital investment funded by debt, as he took debt principal repayment (75% of 1.87b) over years and initial upfront investment (1.87b). He should take 25% of 1.87b as initial upfront investment which will lower the earnings in later years.
08/05/2020 4:44 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 17:40 | Report Abuse

I hope Icon8888 won't mind me answering ....

Posted by Investee > 2020-05-08 17:57 | Report Abuse

Project IRR would be regardless of funding structure, right? Then it wouldn't have principal repayments to derive Earnings. The double counting is as though EVN pays 12% IRR for the initial 1.87b and 75% of 1.87b over the loan tenure rewarding debt structure. Just my 2 cents here.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 18:52 | Report Abuse

A lot of valuation methods were modified to suit each objective. There is no hard and fast rules. You should read Vietnam government's guideline on the parameters used to calculate the IRR for its BOT project.

You can try to do your calculation without debt capital and compare that with Vinh Tan 1's results. With 12% IRR, is it able to achieve Vinh Tan 1's results ? I can tell you off hand, your results won't even be near.

-------------
Investee Project IRR would be regardless of funding structure, right? Then it wouldn't have principal repayments to derive Earnings. The double counting is as though EVN pays 12% IRR for the initial 1.87b and 75% of 1.87b over the loan tenure rewarding debt structure. Just my 2 cents here.
08/05/2020 5:57 PM

Posted by nonamestupid > 2020-05-08 19:31 | Report Abuse

this scammer DK66 still at here scamming..

Posted by Antifakeguru > 2020-05-08 19:39 | Report Abuse

Scammer everywhere now

Posted by nonamestupid > 2020-05-08 20:00 | Report Abuse

becareful this DK66 super scammer.. keep promote promote promote..

Posted by nonamestupid > 2020-05-08 20:00 | Report Abuse

only money game boss will tell you how to make money

Posted by GGecko > 2020-05-08 20:30 | Report Abuse

5th may..

Posted by JJchan > 2020-05-08 21:41 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the correction

Posted by Rookieinvestor > 2020-05-08 21:50 | Report Abuse

most of us are not interested in what DK66 says here. He may know lots of stuff but to the general public we are here to make investment and prefer simple English rather than long and winded information given by DK66

Posted by kalteh > 2020-05-08 22:04 | Report Abuse

Dont think your opinion represents all of us here.
DK66’s investment thesis has provided real insight and it is long winded because the case for Jaks was never straight forward.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 22:18 | Report Abuse

Yes, I tried my best to make it simple
-----------------
kalteh Dont think your opinion represents all of us here.
DK66’s investment thesis has provided real insight and it is long winded because the case for Jaks was never straight forward.
08/05/2020 10:04 PM

Posted by investor77 > 2020-05-08 22:35 | Report Abuse

I believe DK66 has done a lot of good analysing Jaks. At present FD rates are low, at less than 3%. Any projected returns of more than 4 %, represents good returns.

Before the Black Swan, people heavily buying Jaks at Rm1.50. OTB also promoted this share.KYY and OTB have also went to the site. Just look at MFCB to see that Hydro /Coal Powered Plant can give good dividends and capital returns. Though MFCB is expensive at RM5, a cheaper entry is to consider Call Warant CH which at one time touches 17cents and is now only 9 cents.!!

Everyone is entitled to his own opinion. There are some people who says Calvin Tan,-promoting Opcom for National Fiber Plan or 5G phone, and DK 66 is conman. That is factually wrong. They are actually helping investors to make the right decision. Many have gained from their write ups.

Opcom at one time touches more than 70 cents and went below half the price, but is now climbing up and at around 58 cents. Wont be surprised if it strongly rebounds above the price before the Covid 19, Political upheaval and low Crude Oil price triple whammy. !!

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-08 22:49 | Report Abuse

investor77, Thank you
------------------------------------
investor77 I believe DK66 has done a lot of good analysing Jaks. At present FD rates are low, at less than 3%. Any projected returns of more than 4 %, represents good returns.

Before the Black Swan, people heavily buying Jaks at Rm1.50. OTB also promoted this share.KYY and OTB have also went to the site. Just look at MFCB to see that Hydro /Coal Powered Plant can give good dividends and capital returns. Though MFCB is expensive at RM5, a cheaper entry is to consider Call Warant CH which at one time touches 17cents and is now only 9 cents.!!

Everyone is entitled to his own opinion. There are some people who says Calvin Tan,-promoting Opcom for National Fiber Plan or 5G phone, and DK 66 is conman. That is factually wrong. They are actually helping investors to make the right decision. Many have gained from their write ups.

Opcom at one time touches more than 70 cents and went below half the price, but is now climbing up and at around 58 cents. Wont be surprised if it strongly rebounds above the price before the Covid 19, Political upheaval and low Crude Oil price triple whammy. !!
08/05/2020 10:35 PM

Posted by stockwin > 2020-05-08 23:43 | Report Abuse

Calling DK66 a conman? Please be fair to him !!
He wrote many articles on JAKS and so far I do not see anyone disputing his figures convincingly.
Let criticise with facts and figures and not destructively.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-09 10:00 | Report Abuse

stockwin, thank you
---------------------
stockwin Calling DK66 a conman? Please be fair to him !!
He wrote many articles on JAKS and so far I do not see anyone disputing his figures convincingly.
Let criticise with facts and figures and not destructively.
08/05/2020 11:43 PM

Posted by Michael Teng > 2020-05-09 10:33 | Report Abuse

Many thanks to DK66, Icon8888, OTB and whoever that actually made an effort to post constructively. That took lots of time, research and tedious professional works. Well done and greatly appreciated.

We have some guys who drop by and wrote a one or two liners , and call them Conman, cheaters or whatever.

Remember, nobody point a gun to ask you to come in, or to buy or sell any stocks in I3 investor forum. Let us learn to write responsibly .

Have a great day, guys.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-09 10:53 | Report Abuse

It has been more than 3 years since I made my first comment on Jaks and stayed until now. Have you ever seen a conman stayed that long on a stock ?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-09 10:55 | Report Abuse

You can call me a conman but it is your loss not those who read my articles with on open heart.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-09 11:02 | Report Abuse

Rookieinvestor, I m sorry for the long winded articles. Believe me I can't make it shorter as it would be incomplete. In fact, I already thought of your concern and wrote an abbreviated version of my most prized masterpiece "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP".

You may like to read "Jaks Resources - Vinh Tan 1 Power Plant in Vietnam Made RM652m in 2019 !" https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-05-story-h1...

I hope you will find that useful for your purpose.

Thank you
--------------- ---
Rookieinvestor most of us are not interested in what DK66 says here. He may know lots of stuff but to the general public we are here to make investment and prefer simple English rather than long and winded information given by DK66
08/05/2020 9:50 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-09 11:34 | Report Abuse

Dear all,

May I do a survey here ? Perhaps for my next article.

I would like to know what you are most concerned with about Jaks. Please limit your answer to financial concerns as I won't be able to address concerns on human behaviours or motives.

You may start with,

I m concerned with .................................

Your participation will be most appreciated.

If you do not wish to post it here, you may email to i3dk66@gmail.com

Posted by Rookieinvestor > 2020-05-09 11:36 | Report Abuse

DK66, most of us are only keen to know whether to buy , hold or sell and the target price.The majority of us who would not read the whole article if it is pages and pages long. Maybe there are a few who would but i believe majority of us would not continue reading after a first few paragraphs unless they are in this field or expertise. At the end of the day, you must understand the audience who are reading your article are not as knowlegable as you in this topic and only confuse themselves on whether to buy or not

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-09 12:05 | Report Abuse

Dear DK66,
If you will then please address the concerns of Kcchong and Philip below:

KCChong have this to say about JAKS on Oct 13, 2019 10:46 AM:
“In my opinion, the prospect of the power plant far outweigh the risks in other businesses as it appears that it is a lucrative business. But that is not the point for me.

Bear in mind, someone had invested about RM300m in Jaks and became the major shareholders in Jaks, also based on the assumption that the power plant is a very lucrative business. He even said the Chinese banks "guarantee" Jaks will make a lot of money. Haven't you read that?

But why did he sold off all his shares in such a promising stock, some more with a loss of more than RM100m, in a single stock? Do you think he is so stupid? May be yes, may be not.

I did make about 20k punting on Jaks, closing my position last week, within a week. Yes, punting is the right word, and not "investing".

Why do I use the term "punting"? By the way, this is just my opinion. You have to make your own judgment, and your judgment may be better than mine. I am just speculating. But do pay attention to some comments which are not the same as yours. One of the credible ones is here,

Posted by sense maker > Oct 10, 2019 11:20 AM | Report Abuse
Doubting Koon is worried he will get eaten by this stock the second time. Once bitten twice shy. He boasted about jaks at rm1.40 but then he badmouthed jaks after he exited at a price as low as 40sen plus.
Even if the power plant proves more than accounting profits, it is almost certain the controlling shareholders would not share any cash profits through dividends to shareholders.
Exercise caution, everyone”

And Philip has this to say on May 6, 2020 10:37 AM:
You will not get 300 million in earnings from Jaks. It will be hidden behind costs and expenses, ppe capex and new investments and more share dilution and warrants from Jaks the company. The losses from other departments and divisions will pull down the entire business.
That is what will happen when you invest into Jaks.

Thank you

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-09 12:16 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee, I thank you for your participation. As i have said, I won't be able to address concern on human behaviour or motives.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-09 12:19 | Report Abuse

well said.

I was just about to comment on that

Posted by DK66 > May 9, 2020 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee, I thank you for your participation. As i have said, I won't be able to address concern on human behaviour or motives.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-09 12:25 | Report Abuse

as a summary, i think we can breakdown JAKS analysis into two:
.............................................................


(1) Observed performance.

This will be like looking at Vinh Tan 1 earnings and Mong Duong 2 which are almost identical.

To me this part is almost done deal - closed.


(2) Develop a financial model:

This can be shown using the IRR reported or other PPA conditions...

To me (1) is straight forward, and the (2) is still in development state... at the moment i can obtain reported earning with project IRR of 15%... but DK66 seems to have a different model...

I am still learning on this

Posted by probability > 2020-05-09 12:29 | Report Abuse

Answers to such query had been provided numerous times.

its easier you make your own judgement by the expected earnings of 196m at 30% stakes and high certainty of it becoming 40% stakes.

This should be the answer on that from now on


Posted by Rookieinvestor > May 9, 2020 11:36 AM | Report Abuse

DK66, most of us are only keen to know whether to buy , hold or sell and the target price.The majority of us who would not read the whole article if it is pages and pages long. Maybe there are a few who would but i believe majority of us would not continue reading after a first few paragraphs unless they are in this field or expertise. At the end of the day, you must understand the audience who are reading your article are not as knowlegable as you in this topic and only confuse themselves on whether to buy or not

Posted by keechungwong54 > 2020-05-09 12:33 | Report Abuse

Jaks, if as what the management says will get 100 million net profit when Vietnam power plant is in operation. If it is so EPS is around RM0.15 . If PE is 10x , the price is RM 1.50. If PE is 12x the price is RM 1.80. If PE is 15x the price is RM.25. Base on power plant is very stable and sustained earning with only a very minimum risky I hold the fair price of Jaks should be RM1.8-RM2.25 with PE12x-15x.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-09 12:33 | Report Abuse

My only point on IRR is that the project IRR must include the interest costs in its calculation.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-09 12:39 | Report Abuse

Sslee, you must realise that there is no answer that will convince readers with such strong perception, not even answers from the CEO himself.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-09 12:41 | Report Abuse

Dear DK66,
By now everyone who knows how to read, knew that JAKS' worth in the power plant per share basis is definitely worth a lot more than its current price per share, no matter how we slice it. However, when we invest in JAKS, bear in mind we are not investing in the power plant, but the whole of JAKS; its other businesses, its management especially.

It is my hope that maybe you can tell us how you are going to play the roles of investor activist to ensure the BOD/Management do not shortchange the minority shareholders by demanding transparency and accountability.
1. Demanding the AGM minutes to be published in JAKS website.
2. Hold BOD accountability to what they promised during the AGM
3. Mobilize the minority shareholders to have their resolution table for voting during AGM or maybe voting you to be the independent director and etc

Thank you

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-09 12:56 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

This is beyond me. I trust that you can play a good role. You have my support.

Thank you
----------------------
Sslee Dear DK66,
By now everyone who knows how to read, knew that JAKS' worth in the power plant per share basis is definitely worth a lot more than its current price per share, no matter how we slice it. However, when we invest in JAKS, bear in mind we are not investing in the power plant, but the whole of JAKS; its other businesses, its management especially.

It is my hope that maybe you can tell us how you are going to play the roles of investor activist to ensure the BOD/Management do not shortchange the minority shareholders by demanding transparency and accountability.
1. Demanding the AGM minutes to be published in JAKS website.
2. Hold BOD accountability to what they promised during the AGM
3. Mobilize the minority shareholders to have their resolution table for voting during AGM or maybe voting you to be the independent director and etc

Thank you
09/05/2020 12:41 PM

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-09 12:57 | Report Abuse

sslee....want to buy shares want to do all that? better don't buy.............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-09 12:57 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600282416.jsp see my comments.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-09 12:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-09 13:03 | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker > May 9, 2020 12:58 PM | Report Abuse

qqq3

everybody knows that only 80% of power generated is usable

and that IRR 12% is based on Capital Employed, they borrowed 75% so IRR is based on 25% only.

there is no need for you to keep on saying it.

the idea is that for Jaks to Pump up to RM18.00 per share, people need to believe in fake figures just like Heng Yuan
=========


but I cannot stand by and let OTB con the public..........

Posted by OTB > 2020-05-09 13:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-09 13:06 | Report Abuse

so many funds managers in Malaysia , so many CFAs.......

where are there in the shareholder list?


oh....fund managers in Malaysia all bodoh one meh?


its not fund managers I want to protect.....its all the uncles and aunties I want to protect...........

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-09 13:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2020-05-09 13:06 | Report Abuse

Posted by Michael Teng > May 9, 2020 10:33 AM | Report Abuse

Many thanks to DK66, Icon8888, OTB and whoever that actually made an effort to post constructively. That took lots of time, research and tedious professional works. Well done and greatly appreciated.

We have some guys who drop by and wrote a one or two liners , and call them Conman, cheaters or whatever.

Remember, nobody point a gun to ask you to come in, or to buy or sell any stocks in I3 investor forum. Let us learn to write responsibly .

Have a great day, guys.