@greatdreamer, personally think that they will do something like sime darby property did. They will build the data center and rent it to DC operator to generate recurring income. Sime darby, YTL, Sunway all dont have experience in data center but they can hire consultant. This is the only way to create maximum value to the company. Dont forget that KSL has their own construction team.
@GreatDreamer, KSL will not going to sell the land to DC company just for one-off income. Instead I think KSL will team up a JV with DC specialists like what Mahsing is doing now. Just collect the leasing fee monthly without involve in the DC operation. This will provide KSL recurring income like what they did in investment properties
Noticed one alarming data in the Qtr reporting, there is a RM201m increase in trade receivable (no details provided), while the revenue for the qtr was RM328m, meaning 61% of the sales is not collected !!! Furthermore during the quarter although the profit was RM101m there was negative operating cashflow of RM127m.... these are very alarming numbers, the trade receivable totals RM465m.... hopefully management is not "cooking" the books :-) LOL .... cud this explain the extremely low PER for a property development company? Anyone here has the answer?? ...... cheers and happy hunting
@raymondroy Most of us purchase a house by taking loan from bank, hence, the developer has to do progressive claim from bank. This is very normal their receivable increase as they may claim the payment from bank end of the quarter. It won’t be surprised if their receivable remain at such level or even high since they have many new projects launching or under active construction. Past 6 months they spent 300-400M to purchase but their loan from bank didn’t increase. This clearly explain why they have negative cash flow as they use the fund to pay for the land. So based on this, could you enlighten us how they “cook” the book???? If they would cook the book, they already a net debt company instead of a net cash company.
If ksl has alarming numbers, then the rest of the property companies listed at bursa can close shop already. Ksl is the property cum developer company has the best balance sheet among all property counter.
@raymondroy, if you wanna know whether the management is cooking the book, just calculate the trade receivable and revenue of company. As at 20Q4, AR=89.489mil. As at 21Q4, Rev=457.566mil and AR=187.976mil, money collected in 2021=89.489+457.566mil-187.976mil=359.079mil. As at 22Q4, Rev=574.999mil and AR=144.078mil, money collected in 2022=187.976mil+574.999mil-144.078mil=618.897mil. As at 23Q4, Rev=1,140.637mil and AR=263.686mil, money collected in 2023=144.078mil+1,140.637mil-263.686mil=1,021.029mil. As at 24Q1, Rev=328.259mil and AR=465.151mil, the money collected in 24Q1=263.686mil+328.259mil-465.151mil=126.794mil. So from 2021-2024Q1, total revenue=2,501.461mil and total money collected from customers=2,125.799mil about 85% of total sales has received from customer during this period. Do you think the management is cooking the book ?
KSL Holdings Bhd is a hidden gem in Malaysia's property market, with significant potential due to its extensive undeveloped land holdings in Johor. The company's strategic locations near the rapidly growing data center hub position it for substantial future growth. Based on peer valuations, KSL's projected stock price could reach RM14.49. If you invest in 1,000 units at the current price of RM1.84, the value could potentially rise to RM7,250, representing a 294% return, even without direct involvement in the AI boom.
KSL's strong financials and prime undeveloped properties make it an attractive investment opportunity. With Johor's ongoing development, KSL is well-positioned to benefit from increased property demand, offering significant upside potential for investors.
IWCity (1589.KL) Biggest Laggard In Johor Property Boom
Over the weekend, The Edge Weekly featured a 200-pager Special Edition titled “JOHOR READY FOR THE BIG LEAP”. Johor since the middle of last year had been the hotbed of investment be it property counters and the involvement in Data Centre Theme. Share prices with exposure to Johor were sure hits for these 18 months. The main catalyst is none other than the sheer amount of FDIs pouring into the state. In addition to the big policy moves to formulate and execute business-friendly decisions in spearheading the state’s economic growth.
Quoting Datuk Ho Kay Tat (Publisher & Group CEO of The Edge)
Publisher’s Note [THE STARS MAY FINALLY BE ALIGNED FOR JOHOR]
“In 2006, Malaysia launched the Iskandar development project to try and push things forward for Johor, but progress has not been as good as hoped and one reason is because of the cool response from Singapore.
But this appears to have changed recently, and there is now bullish optimism in the air because of closer government-to-government cooperation that has enabled things to move. The collaborative construction of the Rapid Transit System Link (RTS Link) from Woodlands in Singapore to Bukit Chagar in the heart of Johor Bahru and the creation of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone will be game changers.
Another factor is that Johor’s Sultan Ibrahim is now the King of Malaysia and His Majesty will definitely give an added push to make things happen sooner, rather than later
For Johor, the stars may finally be aligned”
In a RHB Report dated 13 May 2024 Titled [Real Estate - JS-SEZ: The New Chapter of Iskandar Malaysia] mentioned a list of major landowners in Iskandar Malaysia. Further extrapolating from the list, the table below shows the share price performances of these landowners.
To many investors' surprise, IWCity is the only company that printed a negative return on share price with a meagre -0.6% contraction. The average YTD return for companies with land banks in Iskandar Malaysia Region was +49.8% and even more on a 1-Year measurement.
Surging property prices in Johor as seen from recent transactions with KSL, Paragon Globe, Crescendo and AME Elite are some of the anecdotal evidence that land prices are indeed moving up. Hence, one needs to take a closer look at IWCity as it lags behind its peers by a far margin. Hence, an opportunity for the late comers to catch up with very low downside risks.
Eco World yesterday announced to sell a piece of land of 124 acres in Pulai to Microsoft Payments for RM403m or at RM75 psf.
KSL has around 578 acres of land around the area in Pulai, if the land is revalued to RM75 psf, it would be worth RM1.93 billion or close to KSL's entire market cap of RM2.1 billion.
Ecoworld sold land in Kulai (Senai), not Pulai. Pulai land is more valuable as it is nearer to Singapore.
YTLP land all in Kulai (formerly Kulai Young Estate), fetch much lower price then the Ecoworld land.
I don't see any DC operator choose YTL Green Data Centre other than YTLP itself (with SEA and Nvidia), other hyperscale DC mostly in Sedenak, NCIP, and scattered around Iskandar Region. Very crowded now, just like glove manufacturing during the Covid era.
actually they not necessary to revalue the land. KSL is the property which has highest net profit margin. I suppose this is because their cost for the land is cheap and hence their net profit margin is high when there is new launch.
KSL profit margin is very high because of low land price. Landed house land cost itself already take up 30% of GDV. If land cost for KSL is 10% of GDV, just from land itself already make 20% profit.
Not only DC and whatever hype there is now on property counters of Johor. When the HSR eventually happens, and it will, all the property counters will leap up like crazy. So holders of KSL, keep your jewels and add to it.
No idea what kind of mathematics is this. Sounds more like Scam-matics. ——————————————— Suppose you buy 1,000 shares of KSL at the current price. KSL’s price is low compared to its earnings and other similar companies. If you buy 1,000 shares of KSL at RM1.84 = RM1,840 If the price goes up by 50% (close the P/E gap) = RM7,250 That is more than double your money.
Totally my bad on that one – thanks for catching it! I had a typo in my previous post. What I meant was that if KSL's P/E ratio matches half the average P/E of its peers, not a 50% of the price.
So, here's the deal: If you buy 1,000 shares of KSL at RM1.84 (costing RM1,840) and KSL's P/E ratio rises to half the average of its peers, the projected stock price would be RM7.25 per share.
Still a pretty sweet deal and more than doubles your investment! Appreciate you pointing out the mistake.
As response to your polite reply, I shall apologise for inappropriate remarks.
I wouldn’t recommend using PE of industry as a whole as comparison. Say a new IPO will probably have far higher PE for their potential. E.g. 50sen for 0.005 annualised profit will put it at PE100 just solely on their prospect, but as the optimism of their earning potential subside, price will eventually fall back to normal valuation.
A more accurate valuation method will be comparing to its relatively similar peers in terms of market cap/earnings. e,g Mahsing. Mahsing making less profit with higher market cap at PE 20. If market values KSL 50% of how they value Mahsing will put KSL at PE10. There is almost 100% upside at current price.
Then question will become, how come market don’t value KSL the same as how they value Mahsing. That will open up different can of worms. _______________________________ Alex_Kho Hey @RJ87,
Totally my bad on that one – thanks for catching it! I had a typo in my previous post. What I meant was that if KSL's P/E ratio matches half the average P/E of its peers, not a 50% of the price.
So, here's the deal: If you buy 1,000 shares of KSL at RM1.84 (costing RM1,840) and KSL's P/E ratio rises to half the average of its peers, the projected stock price would be RM7.25 per share.
Still a pretty sweet deal and more than doubles your investment! Appreciate you pointing out the mistake.
Thanks for your thoughtful response and insights. You raise some great points about PE ratios and valuation methods, and it's always valuable to consider different perspectives.
I base my selection on my own analysis and metrics, which naturally comes with my own biases. Ultimately, the market will move as it does, and only time will tell how things pan out.
Thanks again for the constructive discussion. We need more of these in the forum rather than just speculative comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Eggplant
90 posts
Posted by Eggplant > 2024-06-04 19:20 | Report Abuse
@lcng123. That's very nice. Let's look forward to it