Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-19 15:38 | Report Abuse

titus! That is exactly how I started. And it is the smart way to do it. Don't listen to any sifus, make your own decision and dip only, don't need to go crazy all in. The best is if you like the stock, understand more about it. if the quarterly report is good. Buy more. slow and steady, no need to sailang. As long as you are right, no need to be so kancheong. There are many quarters left until RAPID goes full run and production goes all out. Then you can smile big big. I spent 10 years buying QL since 2009. I expect I'd probably be spending many years more buying PCHEM.

However....

There is the other material list(from annual report), where the T&C goes badly and the entire PIC goes out in a big ball of fire. It could happen and it would be a huge disaster for a 27B USD investment. Poof. But chances are low la. Nothing in investing is guaranteed.

qqq3 - you do realize that PCHEM just went from 67bil market cap to 71 bil market cap right? How would I even be able to start a bull run. Must be the fake photo i'm using borrowing choivo name.

4 billion in market value increase would be like buying 8 500 million penny stock companies. But the share price doesn't matter. What matters is what happens 2 weeks from now when the earnings come out and you have an idea what is happening with the company.

Posted by kingb > 2019-02-19 15:40 | Report Abuse

Wow it’s flying high

Posted by titus > 2019-02-19 15:50 | Report Abuse

Philips, thank for the encouragement. Actually for the PIC, i actually concern on the politically thingy especially where you mentioned 70% feedstock will come from saudi. If it don't materialise, then this will be a white -elephant....but of course my understanding of this stock is way below you.....anyway, i will wait for the coming QR.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-02-19 16:10 | Report Abuse

When u compare your PCHEM investment with stockraider's INSAS, u think u r minimizing risk but from the way u keep on compounding your investments in the same few stocks.... u r actually increasing your risks whenever u top up your investments.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-19 16:10 | Report Abuse

titus, 50% is from petronas and 50% is from saudi. crude oil.

Saudi only reserve the right to sell more to PIC. Up to 70% if they want to.

Think of it this way. black oil from the ground you dig up is basically unusable.

You need to refine it then got use.

Saudi is smart because it realize petronas is far more efficient than saudi in managing its refining plants and process than saudi refiners. And most of all PIC is closer to its customers in SEA. So that's why they reserve the right to make more money.

The reason why this is important is because crude oil won't explode. After refining it becomes jetfuel(kaboom),kerosene(kabummm), Ron95(boommshakakaka), diesel, naphta, etc etc. These can go kaboom. So it is better to produce nearest to the major growing population centers. (asia and china and india) to reduce risk.

Thats why I think PIC is a gamechanger. It will be the cheapest production center this side of SEA, with the fastest population growth ever. Its basically a guaranteed revenue and earnings for years to come (if no nasty surprise la boom boom kabooom) with 50% earnings of it going to retirees like ppteh and me in dividends.

God I love non-taxable income!

Speaking of which, you need to support Calvin Tan. He showed us the way, god save his black soul!

If christian, attend church and pray for him. If not christian, attend once just for kicks and donate for him.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-19 16:21 | Report Abuse

That is what the university economists tell you when they invent terms like beta and alpha and R.

Jeff bezos 99% networth is in one stock. Amazon.
Warren buffett 99% networth is in one stock. Berkshire.
Bill gates 99% networth is in one stock. Microsoft.
John D Rockefeller 99% networth was in one stock. Standard oil.
Andre Carnegie 99% networth was in one stock. It became US steel.

The fact is, they say that volatility equals risk. And the best way to fight risk is to diversify into multiple stocks.

I am of the firm belief that your BIGGEST risk is in not knowing your investments. If you know your investments enough to weigh opportunity costs, you will by nature gravitate to the investment that makes the most bang for buck.

If you dont know your investments well enough, it is true what you say risktransformer, it is definitely better to just buy the index or basket of funds and invest in the overall growth of malaysia. Hopefully we can find one where the asset management costs is below 0.04% management fees, no liquidation cost. I dont think there exists one in malaysia.

>>>

When u compare your PCHEM investment with stockraider's INSAS, u think u r minimizing risk but from the way u keep on compounding your investments in the same few stocks.... u r actually increasing your risks whenever u top up your investments.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-02-19 16:27 | Report Abuse

There r many many kinds of risks.... not just volatility & concentration risks. I think u should take some time to figure out what r those other kinds of risks which u ignore (becoz u r not aware of their existence).

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-19 16:37 | Report Abuse

Hmm that is probably true. But there is also usable and important information, and unlikely black swan events.

Risks are everywhere. If I take into account ALL pertinent risks, I would probably see shadows behind every curtain.

Luckily my wife is a trained actuarist. She has guided me into learning how to evaluate risks. Which she has earned her chocolate and flowers this year.

For me, I understand there is no actual way to mitigate risks. That is why I wait for quarterly reports to show me what the business is doing and how I should respond.

At least I still have QL, Topglov, Yinson and NYSE:STNE to fall back on. Although everyone keeps telling me to sell my stocks because it is far too expensive.

But I keep asking myself, sell it and buy what?

Posted by titus > 2019-02-19 16:39 | Report Abuse

aiya risktransformer, apa lu cakap. EPF selling....u say scared they sell till RM3. Then next day epf selling to press down the price so they can collect more.......which is which oh.....
now say risk this risk that.......only risk is, your money ur risk, philip money, philips's risk and my money, my own risk loh.....

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-02-19 17:25 | Report Abuse

Good to hear your wife is a trained actuarist. In that case, u already have an expert advisor on risk.... nothing to worry about anymore. I see that's y u r so bold & brave in your investment moves.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-02-19 17:39 | Report Abuse

Hahaha.... "sell it and buy what?" U r so wealthy.... u should b able to buy high grade bonds or go into forex & landed properties.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-19 18:14 | Report Abuse

I "invested" in forex in the 90's, never again. Zero sum games are stupid. Malaysia almost went bankrupt betting against George Soros in '97. I almost did too.

Landed properties I only need 1 to live in. Buying more is just greedy and denying another family a roof over their heads. Housing speculation is unnecessary, and selling, maintaining and servicing a house is very irritating for an old man like me.

Name me one high grade bond that performed better than PCHEM, QL and TOPGLOV since 2010. With the share splits and dividend yield. I'd look into it.

The best investment I think it's still equities. Question is what equity has lower risk ( compared to bonds) and better growth opportunities...

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-19 18:25 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by risktransformer > Feb 19, 2019 05:39 PM | Report Abuse

Hahaha.... "sell it and buy what?" U r so wealthy.... u should b able to buy high grade bonds or go into forex & landed properties.
>>>


Philip is the smartest investor I have encountered today in my decade long participation in online forums.

He knows exactly where his money should be invested.

Too many rich people riding Mercedes or other high hand cars, sadly receive poor advice from those comong to work by other means.

Equity is the BEST investment for those who know how to.

Equity is also the WORST investment for those who do not know how to invest in this asset.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-02-19 18:51 | Report Abuse

Fully agree with u 3iii. Nothing more to add or subtract to your comment.

Posted by investor505 > 2019-02-19 19:54 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/morgan-stanley-upgrades-petronas-chemicals-overweight

Posted by pputeh > 2019-02-19 20:17 | Report Abuse

I find this blog very educational and pleasing to read. Not the other blog where there was so much biting and criticism of the other party. We are here to learn and invest our hard earned money. Hope everyone here will share their ideas and thoughts. looking forward to my div and maybe some reinvestment/top up too as time goes by

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-19 21:45 | Report Abuse

I would love to have adult discussion, but one "party" keeps assuming I have a bone to pick with him. At least in official page, if he comments too far, call all report for abuse and remove his posts.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-02-19 23:03 | Report Abuse

I would love to continue my discussion with Philip bcoz I can learn more from him.... but I sense there r people here who only like to hear things that support their position & don't welcome other point of views. So, I'll just wait for the market to unfold itself & see what happens later.

Posted by mamatede > 2019-02-20 09:12 | Report Abuse

wah champion. Even with this type of hike in price, i'm still holding on to my shares. This is long term man, another PB Bank stock in the making.

Posted by kingb > 2019-02-20 09:24 | Report Abuse

Wow. Shooting up again.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-20 10:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 19, 2019 10:36 AM | Report Abuse X

woah, Philips starts a bull run in PChem..................$ 73 billion company some more.

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-02-20 11:24 | Report Abuse

Phillip, i bet you have done your comparison between PCHEM and LCTITAN of which you choose the former. Mind to shed some light on your choice?

Posted by teoct > 2019-02-20 15:47 | Report Abuse

risktransformer - you said that concentration on one or few stocks increases risk. I would say that depend. If the investor (in this case Philip) had research inside out this PCHEM and understand what products it make, how it is priced, the potential substitute to these products, raw material cost and the many buyers, etc and of course the moat, then I would say the risk is actually low.

EPF selling, I did said it could be to raise fund to pay the dividend. But indeed EPF is cash rich from all the collection / contribution from its members. Another dimension is the fund managers employed by EPF decided that they had reached their target (price) and therefore cashing out. I do not think it is EPF per se requesting to sell. Equally, EPF might have given instruction to the fund managers to diversify out of oil, oil products (much like the Norwegian fund). For this, maybe EPF annual report might gives some clue. But I think this is speculation and EPF selling per se need not be construed as something bad.

Global economy downturn - yes, this appear to be coming. But heck, every counters is going to be hit, not only PCHEM. So if the research is done well and this is a good company, then buy and average down when the downturn come.

Another simple way to look at this is - PCHEM had invested billions and Saudi had decided to buy-in, now they must have very good reasons to do so. Philip investment of a few millions pale to the billions already dumped in by PCHEM and Saudi. So PCHEM and Saudi has more to worry if this investment did not turn out the way it should be. Nonetheless, these people invest for the long terms - 20 over years, not short or medium terms.

Finally, the world population at this current moment in time and the decades to come will not whine themselves from the many products made from oil (except the plastic straws, maybe).

Just my 2 sens worth of thoughts.

Happy investing.

Posted by teoct > 2019-02-20 16:00 | Report Abuse

Philip, as leading indicators show that (global) growth is reducing (Germany just missed going into recession), there is suggestion that bond should form some of ones investment. I had a look here and there and there is this AEONCr perpetuity bond paying about 6.4%. If one gets in now and the global economy slowed to a recession, then all if not most central bank will cut interest rate, there will be a rush to buy bond.

There will be capital appreciation as well as coupon payment (if one keep for at least 6 months and 12 months).

I agree with you - one house is more than enough. But I would go further - the country should legislate that each individual could only own one landed house (with 6 months grace to sell the other house if one upgrade or whatever). One can own more condo or commercial properties.

Happy investing.

Posted by teoct > 2019-02-20 16:04 | Report Abuse

Sorry I meant to say wean and not whine. My bad.

Posted by Greyhound > 2019-02-20 16:07 | Report Abuse

wow nice, thanks for the info

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-20 20:15 | Report Abuse

Hi teoct, to be honest, my belief is a government that governs least, governs best. It is up to others to decide if their margin of safety is in owning many homes opposed to bonds or equities. I would not like to force people into telling them what they can or cannot buy.

I think those who know their investments best whether homes, shares or bonds should stick to it. I wouldn't want the government telling me that I can only buy shariah compliant stocks, just as I wouldn't want government to tell me what kind of house I can own.

AEON perpetuity bond sounds good. I'll look into it.

Thanks!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-20 21:38 | Report Abuse

Hi Fabien,

To be honest I haven't looked at LCTITAN closely ever since I saw that their IPO was priced too high. I usually wait for companies to perform for a few years to get more clarity on their business strategy, advantages and growth prospects.

I did drive by their plant in pasir gudang, I thought that their space was limited and not so easy to grow in size and efficiency. Their plant turnover for maintenance was a bit slow for the size, and I felt their feedstock source would have difficulty in hedging and planning prices properly.

Other than that your guess is as good as mine. I don't even know who their end customers are ( Korea local?) So I wouldn't know much.

Sometimes I wish all annual reports are written similar to Berkshire, less pretty pictures and filler info, more info on what they have done to the business, the thought process behind it, the challenges they are facing and what they are doing about it. More pertinent information I guess. You basically have to start everything in reverse i.e. from the major shareholders, notes on the financial statements and backward to analyze properly what it going on...

>>>
Phillip, i bet you have done your comparison between PCHEM and LCTITAN of which you choose the former. Mind to shed some light on your choice?

Posted by teoct > 2019-02-21 09:02 | Report Abuse

Morning Philip, I fully agree with the dictum a government that governs least, governs best to a certain extend.

However, the proposal was only on the number (one) of landed houses one is allowed to purchase not where, the type, etc.

Trust this clarify.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-02-21 10:23 | Report Abuse

teoct, your proposal of only 1 landed property ownership sounded like PH government's manifesto or China & S'pore's 1 child policy (more than a decade ago). If it were to go to the extreme (plenty of extremist in Malaysia).... it may turn into former Zimbabwe president Robert Mugabi's government's legislation of robbing rich landlords of their vast land ownership and dividing the land (plantations & factories) among their local poor people for them to own at least 1 property & to manage the plantations & factories.... look what happened to Zimbabwe now.

Posted by leno > 2019-02-21 11:01 | Report Abuse

haa .... see .... after everi one listen to leno the WISE cat
this forum become so peaceful again.
Congratulation.

We are all car sellers here. We are all salesman.
As long as we keep our selling inside our territories, we are fine until ...
some c2peed dam dam come in try to tok down our car, and try to sell his car in our shop.
Everi one are welcome to our shop .. no doubt. They can ask and discuss.

But asking and discussing is not the same as TROLLING.
Trollers are LOSER. They lose money, they become jealous, and angry.. so, they throll other ppl to make other ppl angry at them so that they can feel happi. GILA !

And Beware ! Leno got internal message that some ppl from OTHER forum try to kacau-kacau here, because their own forum is DYING liaw. They jealous of our forum. Don't fall into their trap.

Lastly, leno WISH everi i3 members ALL THE BEST in whatever u all BUY, HOLD or SELL.
CHIAYOK !! HUATTTTTTTTTT AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!

Posted by leno > 2019-02-21 11:07 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/WTF/59456.jsp

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-21 11:13 | Report Abuse

For malaysia, Opensys is pretty good in their FS writing.

The company owned by Tong Ooi Kong, listed in SGX. Is pretty good as well. No surprises, with Tong being such a big buffett fan.

===
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 20, 2019 09:38 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Fabien,

To be honest I haven't looked at LCTITAN closely ever since I saw that their IPO was priced too high. I usually wait for companies to perform for a few years to get more clarity on their business strategy, advantages and growth prospects.

I did drive by their plant in pasir gudang, I thought that their space was limited and not so easy to grow in size and efficiency. Their plant turnover for maintenance was a bit slow for the size, and I felt their feedstock source would have difficulty in hedging and planning prices properly.

Other than that your guess is as good as mine. I don't even know who their end customers are ( Korea local?) So I wouldn't know much.

Sometimes I wish all annual reports are written similar to Berkshire, less pretty pictures and filler info, more info on what they have done to the business, the thought process behind it, the challenges they are facing and what they are doing about it. More pertinent information I guess. You basically have to start everything in reverse i.e. from the major shareholders, notes on the financial statements and backward to analyze properly what it going on...

>>>
Phillip, i bet you have done your comparison between PCHEM and LCTITAN of which you choose the former. Mind to shed some light on your choice?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-21 11:17 | Report Abuse

Just remembered the company name, Avarga. Paper packaging, myanmar powerplant and Building materials co in canada.

They paid like 4x EV/EBITDA for the canadian building material co, one of the biggest in that country.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-21 17:45 | Report Abuse

Jon! Can you share your rm5000 appreciable report on your PETRONM and why it has a spectacular crash today? I'm really interested in learning why refining is not it's main money maker.

Posted by kingb > 2019-02-21 18:06 | Report Abuse

When qtr report out?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-21 19:02 | Report Abuse

When it comes out.

Posted by leno > 2019-02-22 09:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-02-22 10:46 | Report Abuse

Yes, EPF still continue disposing a few million shares every other day.... boh chow cccc aaaa!

Posted by mamatede > 2019-02-22 12:12 | Report Abuse

I pray EPF will dispose more eh...amen

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-02-22 12:56 | Report Abuse

Hehehe.... hope your prayer get answered; can buy after the price fall lower.

Posted by leno > 2019-02-22 13:00 | Report Abuse

Yup ... let's pray together and hope the price will fall lower and lower ... and lower .... and lower.

Posted by lene > 2019-02-22 13:02 | Report Abuse

Leno, the worst paid commentor, in addition of calvintaneng,

IS BORN.

Posted by leno > 2019-02-22 13:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by leno > 2019-02-22 13:07 | Report Abuse

KLCI ... u just got your self a one way ticket into sheet hole.
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA ... wish u all the best.

Posted by leno > 2019-02-22 13:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by leno > 2019-02-22 14:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by leno > 2019-02-22 14:48 | Report Abuse

WALAU eh ... 4 days ago .. EPF disposed 2 million shares = RM 18 millions ringgit.
WHy ? Must be very BAD earning starting this year.

Posted by leno > 2019-02-22 14:52 | Report Abuse

With so high PE ... and EPF disposing non-stop. i think it is a good time to take profit and run lor. Later drop like no tomolo ... wan to run also very bad.

Posted by leno > 2019-02-22 14:58 | Report Abuse

dun worri ... leno has made this counter as leno home liaw.
Leno always stick with ONE counter for many many months one.
Everyone are welcome here especially those who like to user multiple username, use leno name, to confuse ppl. Leno found it interesting that these fellow, suddenly refuse to come here to entertain leno. Conclusion is obvious lor. He is from the SAME gang. Now, leno is in his gang territory, that's why don't dare to bark woff woff here. Onli dare to go to other place and tok kok. COme lar ... let's tok kok here. EPF disposing let no tomolo .... why lar ? Must be veri good counter right ? MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH ...