Posted by Plantermen > 2023-12-16 12:36 | Report Abuse

Yes. OTB / Probability / dragon 328/ xiaochen/ ravi and many others. Keep up all the good work and news flow on YTLP /YTL. Just ignored those who keep on harping or writing nonsensical unrelated items. All of us can share our ideas & views in a meaningful manner. Wishing all the readers "a happy & productive new year." A happy 2024

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-16 12:46 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-16 12:47 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-16 12:48 |

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Posted by MrFox > 2023-12-16 13:04 | Report Abuse

hit 2.55by year end????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by OnTime > 2023-12-16 13:16 | Report Abuse

3 by eoy is highly probable.

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-16 13:31 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

to all the readers here who are refusing to respond or give any comments to the nonsense written by jerichomy, my greatest appreciation and respect...
--------------------------
Posted by Felix999 > Oct 14, 2023 8:58 AM | Report Abuse
"The greatest enemy of civilization is the barbarian within." - Heinrich Heine

I3 has many barbarians within and the worst type is Jerichomy.
Many right and sound minded people already leave i3 for good because of people like Jerichomy flooding the whole forum with his repeatedly cut and paste vulgarity, insult, slander and gibberish.

I3 used to be the place where investors can exchange useful opinion, figure and fact but sadly no more because of the many barbarian within.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-16 15:11 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen, it is possible for this deal alone with Nvidia to hit RM20 billion. Here is why I think it is possible.

It is not fair to use the cost of building super-computers alone to compare to AI data centres which contain supercomputers, storage equipment and chips, AI cloud computing equipment and softwares, and lots of Nvidia H100 GPUs.

An online check shows that one H100 GPU can cost up to RM350,000 each. One rack of 8 x H100 GPUs requires 6 x 3,300 watts (or 20kW) of power supply. The proposed AI data centre deal by YTLPower with Nvidia would require thousands of Nvidia H100 GPUs and easily 50MW of green power supply, I estimate.

Based on the most recent deal on data centres, in which Singtel sold a 20% stakes in its regional data centre business to US KKR Group, it valued Singtel's data centre business at S$5.5 billion or almost S$30 million per MW of data centre based on my calculation.

Now AI data centres are much more valuable than traditional data centres which are used to store data, garbage or useful data. AI data centres can process raw data and turn it into useful data. I estimate AI data centres should be valued at at least 30% premium to traditional data centres.

Even if I stick to S$30m/MW, a 50MW AI data centre would be worth S$1.5 billion or RM5.25 billion. A 30% premium would value it at SGD2.0 billion or RM7.0 billion.

The proposed collaboration with Nvidia is for a long term period of easily 8 to 10 years which is the typical duration of data centre leases. So we cannot rule out the possibility that over the next 8-10 years, YTL-Nvidia will be able to find more customers for their AI data centres to the tune of 150-200MW capacity (note that YTLP Kulai green data centre park still has spare capacity of over 250MW left).

So total investments could easily hit RM21b to RM28 billion over next 8-10 years.

As AI data centres are the new thing high in demand now, I guess the return on investment ROI would be at least in the high teens.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-16 15:16 | Report Abuse

Just a wild guess, at 15% ROI, this AI data centre deal with Nvidia could potentially generate pretax profit of 15% x RM20b = RM3.0 billion a year when fully developed.

The earnings contribution from the data centre business segment would be as high as PowerSeraya later. Exciting times indeed!

Posted by MrFox > 2023-12-16 15:20 | Report Abuse

insane profit u mean to say???!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-16 15:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-16 15:57 | Report Abuse

@MrFox, when I projected last year that PowerSeraya could earn a pretax profit of SGD200m to 230m a quarter, people laughed and not many believed.

But the numbers speak for itself, PowerSeraya made a pretax profit of over RM1.0 billion in the most recent 2 quarters. It is going to make more in this Dec quarter.

We don't know much about this AI data centre deal, only some big figures floating around. But we cannot discount the possibility that this may become another significant earnings contributor to YTL Power in years to come.

It is by no mistake Nvidia market cap is over USD1.0 trillion and YTL Power market cap has expanded by over 240% YTD. They are both led by visionary chieftains and capable management team.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-12-16 16:03 | Report Abuse

@Dragon328
there are two type of Data Center.
1. ordinary data center
2. AI data center

My understanding is
ordinary data center + supercomputer = AI data center.
Dont know im right or wrong.

And if ordinary data center + supercomputer = AI data center, then with the latest deal with Nvidia, the supercomputer (5b) purposely build to upgrade the Kulai data center (15b) into AI data center with total investment 20b.

if my assumption is wrong, that's mean the latest deal alone will cost 20b, and make the total of 35b.
15b for kulai data center,
20b for Nvidia supercomputer
total 35b of investment on this AI computer center.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-16 16:11 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen, I am no expert in AI nor data centre, we can all learn together.

I am more inclined to think that the RM20b investment is related to the AI data centre deal with Nvidia alone.

The original RM15bn investment was based on the initial RM1.5b investment for the first phase of 48MW with SEA Group for traditional data centre.

Now with AI data centre deal with Nvidia, the total investment for the Kulai park will need to be revised upwards.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-16 16:17 | Report Abuse

Things are developing fast at YTL Power and faster than what we can catch up in understanding and what the market can appreciate.

With the share price back to last Friday level, it seems that the market has failed to realise and appreciate the huge potential of AI data centres. No analyst has given much value to the latest deal with Nvidia, only a couple of analysts acknowledged the significance of the deal but did not dare to attach big value to YTLPower as I think not many people know how to value it. Furthermore, the market is full of short term traders and investors with very short span of investment horizon, so it is natural for people to take profit after the news.

But I believe the YTLP management can deliver a good deal from this tie-up with Nvidia, and see that the current share price weakness is a good opportunity for long term investors to gain entry. You never bet against Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and YTLP MD Dato' Yeoh individually, let alone working together!

Posted by OnTime > 2023-12-16 16:23 | Report Abuse

happy to hv bought more yesterday.

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-16 16:26 | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
Please verify my calculation based on your assumptions.

1 MW = S$ 30 million
250 MW = S$ 7.5 billion
30% premium = S$ 9.75 billion
1 S$ = RM 3.50
30% premium = 9.75*3.5 = RM 34.12 billion
15% margin = RM 5.118 billion per year (PBT).
Please advise.

If the above calculation is correct, the future business of YTLPower + Nvidia on green data storage is bigger than the present business of YTLPower.
This scenario will happen in FY 2025 and 2026 which is not far away from now.
Please comment.
Thank you.

Posted by Uniholder > 2023-12-16 16:29 | Report Abuse

@dragon328


Thank you for another amazing write-up.

I’m happy that YTLP is much steps ahead than others in pioneering new ventures. Definitely will keep this as my future investment.

Without realizing the price for YTLP has gone up so much this year, I am sure 2024 will be another amazing year for YTL group family.


All the best everyone for those investing in YTL, YTLP and soon YTLR ? 😁

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-16 16:30 | Report Abuse

You see while PowerSeraya continues to surprise analysts with its strong earnings every quarter, Wessex has submitted an aggressive capex plan for the next regulatory period from 2025 to 2030 and UK inflation is cooling off.

You also saw the Israel-Hamas conflicts driving up crude oil prices in Oct then gas supply got disrupted to Jordan, and YTLP's Jordan oil shale-fired power plant was running to the max in recent weeks.

We saw YTLP quietly got the award for the RM5.6 billion WTE plant in Selangor, which will provide another stream of long term earnings to YTL Power for next decades. So far, no one has factored in any profit contribution from this segment yet.

Then we saw YTLP buying over a 18.89% stake in Ranhill from a Singapore fund and subsequently raising its stakes to 21+% to equity account Ranhill earnings. No one has built in any earnings contribution yet from this segment as well to YTLP earnings from FY2024.

Then we had the multi-billion MLFF news which is still under negotiation stage with highway concessionaires.

Recently we had this significant deal with Nvidia on AI data centres which the market has so far failed to appreciate.

There may be some other projects under development at YTL Power, which we are not aware of yet. For instance, they may be working on potential projects to export RE to Singapore, as news has been scarce since Singapore EMA launched the tender process few months ago.

Yes 5G may be on the brink of turnaround and may start contributing meaningful profits to YTLP from 2024. We can also expect to see higher earnings contribution from Jordan from 2024. Wessex may be able to secure its proposed 30% hikes in water tariffs from 2025 if its proposed capex plan gets approved in 2024.

So many things are happening in the company. With a gross cash of RM9 billion ready to deploy for M&A and future developments, YTLPower is for sure in for exciting growth periods.

Posted by Uniholder > 2023-12-16 16:35 | Report Abuse

@dragon328

Now after reading your post, i may want to rebalance my portfolio of YTL and YTLP.

With 20%YTL, 20%YTLR and 60%YTLP. 😂😂

Posted by Uniholder > 2023-12-16 16:37 | Report Abuse

Still sempat to grab at this discounted price sebelum shoot up past RM3 soonest. 😅

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-16 16:39 | Report Abuse

Mr. OTB, what I meant by S$30m/MW was the valuation of traditional data centres based on the recent deal by Singtel. What you calculated above (RM34.12 billion) for 250MW of AI data centres was correct if based on 30% premium.

But that is the valuation if we are to value the AI data centre business, i.e. if YTLP were to dispose off the AI data centre business to another party.

But to calculate the potential earnings, I was using ROI which is the return on investment. I used a figure of RM20 billion as the total investment costs for the AI data centres, and assumed a 15% ROI so I got a pretax profit of RM3.0 billion a year.

I was just trying to give some figures to the earnings potential of this Nvidia deal, and I may be way way off eventually, either far too high or far too low, I have no idea. So please don't quote me for that.

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-16 16:44 | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
Thank you for your answer.
No worry, will not quote you.
I wish to learn it from you.
Thank you.

Posted by Uniholder > 2023-12-16 17:01 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 has to change nick already. Maybe YTLP is on its way to 3.28 ? 😁😁

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-16 17:15 | Report Abuse

@Uniholder, I would change it to dragon728 few years later, haha.

Okay guys, time for some exercise out. Have a pleasant weekend!

Posted by MrFox > 2023-12-16 19:09 | Report Abuse

aiyoh! weekend time is not for exercise out lah! ahmoing time lah!!!!
haha

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-16 20:46 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-16 20:47 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-16 21:58 |

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Posted by speakup > 2023-12-17 08:17 | Report Abuse

ni Berry Cake House mesti boykot kut! Please boykot!
https://focusmalaysia.my/bakerys-memo-banning-xmas-greetings-on-cakes-shows-extent-of-jakims-influence/

Posted by OnTime > 2023-12-17 08:24 | Report Abuse

yes, before this stu-pid thing totally gets out of hand!

Posted by speakup > 2023-12-17 08:30 | Report Abuse

everyone boycott Berry Cake House! Teach them a lesson to not main main with Race & Religion!
cake is cake! dont make cake a Race & Religion issue
if we dont stop Berry Cake House nonsense now, after this what next? Cannot have Happy Deepavali in cake? Cannot have Gong Xi Fa Cai in cake? STOP THIS NONSENSE!!!!

Posted by OnTime > 2023-12-17 09:26 | Report Abuse

years ago i saw on cna they interviewed this food exhibitor and he said halal had nothing to do with religion, it's just a method of preparing food. i just laughed at this guy's bold-faced lie!

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-17 23:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-12-17 23:57 | Report Abuse

Not sure ytl communication on this nvdia project who's three bumiputra shareholder and if got $ to fund it... might be johor royalty ?

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-18 08:33 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen, I would add a bit more on the AI data centre total investment cost estimates.

As stated above, a standard 8 x H100 GPU rack typically requires power supply of 3 x 3300 watts or about 20kW. So a 50MW AI data centre would accommodate 50,000/20 x 8 = 20,000 H100 GPUs.

At current market price of RM350,000 per GPU, the investment costs for a 50MW AI data centre would top RM7.0 billion just on H100 GPU costs alone. We need to add other data centre equipment, storage chips, power supply, cooling, land and infrastructure costs which may easily add another RM1.5 billion (same like the first phase of 48MW traditional data centre being built for SEA Group). So for a 50MW AI data centre, total investment costs may be as high as RM8.5 billion.

In next few years, if YTLP-Nvidia JV could progressively find more customers for the AI data centre services, and expand to 100MW - 150MW, total investments may top RM20 billion.

Then that will leave another 300MW capacity at the Kulai site to be developed for other data centres, which may cost another RM5 billion.

When fully developed, the entire Kulai park will attract total investments of RM25b to 27 billion based on my calculations above.

Please see if my estimation above makes any sense to you.

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-12-18 09:05 | Report Abuse

Dragon328- how do you see the arrangement percentage of profit to ytlpower? -->YTL Power said the data centre, which will provide AI computing services to the country, will be owned and managed by YTL Power’s 60%-owned subsidiary YTL Communications Sdn Bhd and be hosted in YTL Power’s 500MW solar-powered Green Data Centre Park in Johor.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-12-18 09:17 | Report Abuse

@Alex Chua, the other 40% is not sure is which Sultan and MARA as per AGM QA session if I did not mis hear what YTLPower MD say. 26% and 16% respectively. @Dragon328 the GPU price should be around USD30K to USD40K depends on configuration, that is retails price. I bet YTL Data Center can get a special pricing from NVDIA with the volume and connections for this sought after items.

Posted by PresidentLOL > 2023-12-18 09:19 | Report Abuse

https://www.schroders.com/en-us/us/individual/insights/how-ai-is-set-to-accelerate-demand-for-data-centres/

This could be a good read to understand more about AI Data centre & it's potential.

Posted by harvest6138 > 2023-12-18 09:21 | Report Abuse

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-18/malaysia-s-top-stock-ytl-power-is-poised-for-more-gains-after-200-rally

Anybody can get the full article to share with us ???

Posted by probability > 2023-12-18 09:56 | Report Abuse

@harvest6138, as requested:

Malaysia’s Top Stock Is Poised For More Gains After 200% Rally
YTL Power has outperformed other big Malaysian companies
The power producer is joining the Kuala Lumpur benchmark index

By Ram Anand
18 December 2023 at 04:00 GTS

A blistering rally in YTL Power International Bhd. this year has scope to continue as better performance from its overseas assets brightens the earnings outlook for the Malaysian power producer.

The share price has more than tripled in 2023, making it the biggest gainer among local companies with a market capitalization of more than 1 billion ringgit ($214 million). Analysts are still calling for a buy in the stock, predicting that it could climb as much as 59% next year.

YTL Power and its conglomerate parent are joining the benchmark FBM KLCI Index on Monday. YTL Corp., controlled by Malaysian tycoon Francis Yeoh and his siblings, has surged almost 230% this year.

Earnings from YTL Power’s venture in neighboring Singapore will remain strong next year on elevated retail margins, while contribution from its Wessex Water unit in the UK is expected to improve as inflation slows, according to analysts. Both countries make up more than 90% of its group revenue.

There could be potential surprises to its earnings outlook too. YTL Power is expected to benefit from Malaysia’s energy transition plans, particularly in the area of renewable-energy exports. Its tie-up with Nvidia Corp. to build an artificial intelligence data center in the southern Malaysian state of Johor is adding to the optimism.

“Having presence on both sides of the border, they definitely have a big advantage” in potential energy exports to Singapore, even though the regulatory framework has yet to be completed, said Hafriz Hezry Harihodin, an analyst at MIDF Research.

READ: Nvidia Data Center Tie-Up Boosts YTL Power to Record High

YTL Power posted net income of 2 billion ringgit on the back of record revenue for the financial year ended June. Its 12-month forward earnings estimate for this quarter alone has risen nearly 28%.

Even after soaring more than 200% in 2023 to a record high earlier this month, valuations remain undemanding. YTL Power is trading at about seven times forward-earnings estimates, compared with its five-year average of almost 13 times.

The company’s improving profitability is also boosting YTL Corp, which derives more than half of its revenue from the power unit. Another potential “wild card” for the main company — which also has construction, cement and hospitality businesses — is the revival of the Singapore-Malaysia high speed rail, said MIDF’s Hafriz.

They are “most likely” to put in a bid for the revived project, he said. Malaysia is currently accepting proposals from companies and consortium who are interested in undertaking the rail link

Posted by harvest6138 > 2023-12-18 10:01 | Report Abuse

@probability , Thanks !! appreciate that .. this make me have more confidence to hold further .. hope it can break RM 3 soon ..

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-18 10:42 | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
Please read the link below.
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/ceomorningbrief/2023-12-12-story-h-212491104-YTL_Power_YTL_Corp_Hit_Fresh_Record_Highs_on_AI_Hub_Tie_up_With_Nvidia
Quote !!
RHB Investment Bank Bhd, in a research note on Monday, raised its target price for YTL Power to RM2.95 from RM2.72, and maintained its “buy” call on the stock, and expressed a long-term positive view on its new collaboration with Nvidia.

The research house highlighted that YTL Power’s earnings growth should strengthen upon its successful delivery of the project in the long run, but investors ought to take note that additional capital expenditure (capex) requirements ahead could be rather intensive.

“We are unable to ascertain the earnings impact of this YTL Power-Nvidia deal at present.

“For the current 48MW hyperscale data centre (estimated capex: RM1.5 billion), the contract tenure is more than 10 years, and we estimate it to potentially generate [a] profit before tax (PBT) of RM100 million per annum,” it said.
Unquote !!

My comments :-
Based on my analysis, I believe Nvidia will take up 200 MW of solar-power green storage centre. Please read the link below.
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/nvidia-ytl-power-partner-for-43bn-ai-data-centers-in-malaysia/
This analyst from RHB said that based on 48 MW hyperscale contract, YTLPower will make 100 million PBT per annum.
200 MW contract = 417 million PBT per annum.

Please verify and advise.
Thank you.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-18 10:44 | Report Abuse

@Alex Chua, the statement said it clearly that the AI data centre will be owned and managed by YTLPower's 60% subsidiary YTL Comms, I am not sure of the other 40% shareholders in YTL Comms.

For the 500MW solar power park, I remember YTLPower owns some 60% to 70% stake with the rest owned by another company.

So the data centre business and the solar power park have different shareholders' structure.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-18 10:47 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, the official list price for Nvidia H100 GPU may be at USD30k to USD40k, but the issue is that the international market cannot get enough of it and is willing to pay huge premium for the GPUs.

I hear from sources saying that GPUs can fetch a price of easily USD80k in China as chinese firms are not allowed to source directly from Nvidia due to US sanctions.

The RM350,000 price tag was obtained from online quotes in Malaysia. You can check your own sources.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-12-18 10:53 | Report Abuse

Whether YTLPower can get a special price from Nvidia for the H100 GPUs does not matter much, as it is most likely that the costs of supplying the GPUs would be considered as equity contribution by Nvidia into the collaboration JV.

If we calculated above using GPU price tag of RM350k per piece, we get an investment cost of RM7.0 billion and YTLPower's part of investments on land, infra, data centre facilities & power supply will amount to RM1.5-2.0 billion, so Nvidia would be seen as contributing the bulk of the equity.

If YTLP asked for the price range of USD30k-40k per GPU, then Nvidia's supply cost of GPUs for a 50MW AI data centre would come down to RM3.5b-4.0 billion, then the equity proportion between YTLP and Nvidia would be more palatable.

I am just guessing, having no clue of the shareholding structure.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-18 11:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Income > 2023-12-18 11:12 | Report Abuse

Probability count here and count there also so so only

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-18 11:16 | Report Abuse

Open in the Facebook app Replies James Luke PROBELM WITH THIS GLOVES SECTOR IT IS LACKING THE RITE CATALYST TO PUSH THIS SECTOR.. WHEN VACCINE UP ON GOOD NEWS, IT WILL BE DOWN.. BUT RHB LATELY MENTION THAT MORE GLOVES WILL BE NEEDED WHEN VACCINE IS OUT.. YES THIS IS A CATALYST, NOW WHEN VACCINE UP, GLOVES ALSO UP.. LET S SEE HOW FAR THIS WILL GO.. MORE IB S SHOULD GIVE MORE CATALYST IN THEIR WRITE UP ON GLOVES... NON IB S LIKE KYY NO POINT,, WHATEVER THEY WRITE, IS NOT TAKEN AS A CATALYST... CAREFULL WITH THIS GUY KYY AND HIS WRITEUP S, HE WILL GIVE TARGET PRICE IN HIS WRITEUP, BUT SLOWLY HE WILL SELL BELOW THIS TARGET PRICES....PUBLIC WILL BE WAITING FOR TARGET PRICE, BUT ACTUALLY KYY ALREADY SOLD.. NOW HE IS IN LOVE WITH SUPERMX LET S SEE WHAT ACTUALLY IS HIS PLAY ON SUPERMX ONLY TIME WILL TELL... SURELY HE WILL SELL BEFORE HIS GIVEN TARGET PRICE.. ON SUPERMX IF NOT MISTAKEN HE GIVEN 12-13, AND 18... I AM VERY SURE HE WILL SELL SUPERMX AT 10, BELOW HIS TARGET PRICE

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-18 11:19 |

Post removed.Why?