Posted by TiffanixLVxHermes > 2024-01-24 12:23 | Report Abuse

too bad..
sold too early

Posted by jenson68 > 2024-01-24 12:23 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong can see what others bank can’t see !! Congrats & cheers

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-24 12:26 | Report Abuse

OTB is another HL!!!!
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
haha

Posted by Ran271221 > 2024-01-24 12:28 | Report Abuse

Dragon328 can see what others can't see. Bah (sebutan Sabahan)

Posted by messi88 > 2024-01-24 12:33 | Report Abuse

really thankful my decision to sold out all my PB shares and convert all to YTLpower end of last year

Posted by OTB > 2024-01-24 12:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Plantermen > 2024-01-24 13:37 | Report Abuse

Read the HLIB upgrade. Potentially YTLP has more legs to go with the rise of AI manufacturing. Imagine the low start up cost of DC {YTLP with Nvidia} vs US other DC. Nvidia {Jensen Huang} may push YTLP as his manufacturing hub. The opportunities is endless

Posted by chon99 > 2024-01-24 13:39 | Report Abuse

YTL POWER and its partner NVIDIA are the two powerful stars of the year 2024 and beyond.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-24 14:12 | Report Abuse

I will try to break down the sum-of-parts valuation by Hong Leong Daniel Wong:

1) PowerSeraya valued at RM25.99 billion or SGD7.4 billion
It looks like he is using a projected net profit of SGD720-740 million/year and multiply by a PER of 10x. This is okay to me as he projects a slightly lower profit (8%-10% lower) than my earlier projection of SGD800m/year, as the electricity demand growth is slower than expected in Dec due to more rain and less heat wave effect. Nonetheless, this is good valuation for PowerSeraya

2) Wessex valued at RM16.4 billion
He uses a multiple of 1.4x RCV and the latest available figures as of 31 Mar 2023, i.e. RCV of 4.0 billion pounds and net debt of 2.9 billion pounds - 1.4 x 4.0b - 2.9b = 2.7 billion pounds or RM16.2 billion. This valuation to me is fair. Wessex' RCV is expected to go up by some 10% to 4.4 billion by 31 Mar 2024, and so valuation will increase by 10% soon

3) Attarat Power valued at RM2.58 billion
He uses DCF method at 12% discount rate. Back calculations show that he may have projected annual earnings of around RM250-300 million as Nepco has been paying about half of the PPA payments. When the arbitration case settles favourably to YTLP and Nepco honors the full PPA payment, I see this valuation to double up.

4) Data centre business valued at RM6.3 billion
He uses the consensus valuation of Keppel 300MW data centre REIT, or about SGD12 million per MW. This is not too far off from the Infratil's valuation of its investment in Australia data centre business reported to be A$15 million/MW. Daniel only assumes 150MW of data centre for YTL Power so far, leaving room for more upside when YTLP secures more data centre jobs higher than 150MW. Furthermore, I would expect AI data centre to be worth much higher than the SGD12m/MW valuation for traditional data centres.

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-24 14:15 | Report Abuse

good deeds will be rewarded... the very essence of karma!
haha

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2024-01-24 14:23 | Report Abuse

When I’ve noticed that the left shoulder has not appear yet, I’ve decided that “It’s time to collect more YTLp shares” at rm3.81.
It’s so obvious that rm3.91 can never be the peak of left shoulder in its futuristic head & shoulder pattern, anymore.
Anyway, my gut feeling about its stock price will exceed rm6.00 based on my amateur technical analysis more than the conservative rm5.15 TP as forecast by an analyst based on fundamental projections.

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2024-01-24 14:32 | Report Abuse

Chicken sheet rr88, where you hiding now?? In the bowels of the toilet?

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-24 14:34 | Report Abuse

TA TP Rm 2.60 ⚒
AmInvest AffinHwang TP RM 2.70 ⚒
RHB TP Rm 2.95 ⚒
MIDF TP RM 2.99 ⚒
CIMB TP Rm 3.00 ⚒
Kenanga TP RM 3.06 ⚒
D TP RM3.28 ⚒😂
OLD HLIB TP RM 3.90 ⚒😁
MrFox TP > 4.00 😁
Uniholder TP 4.28 😁
SimplyyWlSt TP RM4.95😁
HLIB TP RM 5.15 😁

Who can imagine it nearly hit 4.00 so soon.

Posted by Sypher > 2024-01-24 14:40 | Report Abuse

I'm hearing of rumors leaked next QR better than last QR. Pinch of salt and all that, but I'm on the hype train. 3 billion+ PAT this year?

Don't take this as any confirmation. Just sharing rumor of what I heard.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-24 14:40 | Report Abuse

IDSS Vol 647,500
IDSS Val 2.54M

RSS Vol 203,100
RSS Val 793,874

Posted by rr88 > 2024-01-24 14:42 | Report Abuse

Can, can, can dy. Got power dy.
1. Oredy breakout above 3.91 last peak.
2. Index oredy surpassed 1500 n will close above it today.

Can lar 4.28 thereabout.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2024-01-24 14:44 | Report Abuse

@dragon328
tyvm for providing us a summary of the assumptions that the analyst who made the rm5.15 stock TP within a minute read.
Now, I can figure out or understand about his conservative treatment or approach especially for its DC and AI business profitability is rather low to even make any sense at all.

Posted by Bullstocks888 > 2024-01-24 14:45 | Report Abuse

Congratulations to all YTL Power shareholders!

Hodling since December 2022!

Thanks to dragon328 for the constant updates!

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-24 14:51 | Report Abuse

@MOBAjobg, I can understand why analysts tend to use conservative projections for YTLP data centre business, as so far information has been scarce.

Hong Leong analyst used the consensus valuation of Keppel DC REIT which is the closest peer available for comparison.

I would wait till the 1st phase of AI data centre to start contributing earnings in Q1 FY2025 to gauge the earnings potential of the AI data centre collaboration with Nvidia

Posted by Sypher > 2024-01-24 14:52 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, may everything bless you this year as you spread knowledge, facts, and stats without any expectation of return. Great work, and may you constantly find success and prosperity wherever you go.

Posted by Bullstocks888 > 2024-01-24 15:06 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, I'm following you to enter PBA this week!


I believe PBA can be next multibagger stock!

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2024-01-24 15:07 | Report Abuse

Lol never fails to amaze me

rr88

Can, can, can dy. Got power dy.
1. Oredy breakout above 3.91 last peak.
2. Index oredy surpassed 1500 n will close above it today.

Can lar 4.28 thereabout.


23 minutes ago

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-24 15:11 | Report Abuse

@3.93 MCap 32B, L4QPE is 11.7x and FPE of 10.00

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2024-01-24 15:17 | Report Abuse

Dragon 328. Good summary on YTLp income stream between Seraya Power , Wessex water, YTLP DC earnings, Attarat oil & gas etc. higher forex gain must also factor in. MYR /USD 4.70 and MYR/SGD 3.50

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-24 15:27 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-24 15:27 |

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Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-24 15:28 | Report Abuse

@Bullstock888, ya PBA could be a multi-bagger in making and the re-rating could be pretty soon.

Thanks to KingKKK for highlighting this stock last week

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2024-01-24 15:33 | Report Abuse

The rental price of the best in class RTX cloud GPU infrastructure is usd1.28 per hour as compared to NVidia HGX 100 was usd4.7+ per hour (when it’s available, fully reserved now).

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2024-01-24 15:38 | Report Abuse

The magnificent 7 of BM can only make sense by KingKKK with the removal of TENAGA stock from the equation.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-24 15:47 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 what will be the PBA earning look like after tariff increase?

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-24 15:52 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, based on KingKKK's calculations, PBA revenue will get a lift of RM80 million a year after water tariff hike from 1st Feb 2024. Assuming operating costs remain more or less the same, pretax profit should get a lift of around RM75 million. Net profit should reach RM120 million a year or EPS of 36 sen

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-24 15:54 | Report Abuse

furthermore, there will be electricity cost inbalance pass-thru built in the water tariffs, so there will be no issue of electricity tariff hike impact on PBA earnings going forward.

Another good thing is that the water tariffs will get a review every 3 years going forward, and PBA water tariff for Penang remains as one of the lowest in Peninsular Malaysia even after the water tariff hike

Posted by rr88 > 2024-01-24 15:56 | Report Abuse

Sold all. Lost 4 cents.
Conman at the wheel.
Morning push, afternoon nett sell all.
Chee la ka this conman.
I knew it the way he pushed at opening bell. But the emotion got the better of me.

Posted by OTB > 2024-01-24 16:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-24 16:17 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 thank you!!!

Posted by Bullstocks888 > 2024-01-24 16:37 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 thanks for your feedback!

PBA had RM100mil operating cashflow for 9 months of 2023 or about RM130mil annualized.

The tariff hike will add another RM80mil of additional revenue a year. So total operating cashflow is RM210 million.

Isn't PBA a bargain at current price of RM2.28?

And can raise tariff every 3 years!

Posted by AlTugauw > 2024-01-24 16:38 | Report Abuse

What is going on with YTL? Why are they still in league with NVDIA, which is building a supercomputer for Israel. Does the Malaysian govt, especially KWAP & KWSP, realise this, that Malaysian public funds are invested in a company that has almost direct ties to Israel?

Posted by PASSIVESTOCK > 2024-01-24 16:41 | Report Abuse

zzz lsrael also out zzz better dont touch money palatines naaa

Posted by rr88 > 2024-01-24 16:44 | Report Abuse

Hello boy.

I teach you boy what keeps me alive n thriving for 30 yrs.

1. If it is holding hegeh2 above yr cost you can hold it forever n ever n even pass it on to yr children.

2. The moment it drops a little below yr cost you just close yr eyes n dump it, even after you bought it for just 20 mins. If you r not willing to take in small losses, one of these days you will be hit by mother of all losses.

Morning buy, buy, down, support, buy buy, support, buy buy.

Then all of sudden after lunch, sell sell n sell. Buyers come in, give. Give give give lower n lower n lower.

When it gets too low, they support it a short while IN ORDER TO SELL MORE.

All signs are there. CONMAN AT WORK to trap people.

They stocked up 3.72 - 3.83 for 3 days. Market did not move on its own. So today at opening bell they came to push IN ORDER TO UNLOAD what they stocked up.

Once they finish unloading, it will fall.

Understand boy!

Posted by hoplanner > 2024-01-24 16:56 | Report Abuse

AlTugauw... forget about politics, it's time to make some to ease daily living expenses

Posted by OTB > 2024-01-24 16:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2024-01-24 17:04 | Report Abuse

rr88 is like the street peddler that sells snake oil. After sell run away. Notice when it goes up he goes missing; only to reappear like the chicken he is. I also can watch and then say I bought at ,.,,, and made 2 million rupiah when I can even buy 1000 shares. LOL while we were buying Supermax, TG,Kossan, Harta etc he was buying HLT,LYC and LKL.

Posted by sasword > 2024-01-24 17:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-24 17:18 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-24 17:18 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-24 17:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-24 17:20 |

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Posted by Invest_888 > 2024-01-24 17:21 | Report Abuse

Most people earned 16cents and very happy today but one person here lost 4 cents and disappointed.
So weird!!!. Better change your investment method. Can learn from dragon328. If you lost 4 cent and don't like OTB, can learn Mr Fox words of wisdom for the YTLP stock.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-24 17:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by rr88 > 2024-01-24 18:24 | Report Abuse

Not disappointed bcause of loss.
Disappointed bcause i first recognised crooks were at work but i changed my mind n went in.

There are all sorts of tricks under the sleeve of stock market crooks.

How do you sell at 3.90?
First you push it from 3.78 to 3.99.
Then you sell it down.
Then you stabilise it.
There will be buyers coming in bcause they see it cheaper than the 3.99 peak.
Then you continue selling it.
You will get 3.90 average sell.

I am a trader. Not an investor.
Doing this for 30 yrs now i choose to be a trader.

As a trader, you control your downside risk small. Drop a bit you cut loss. You are always liquid. You are always full of bullets n ready to shoot.

You see stock market is like a war. Battles here in there. Follow the crowd. Join the fight. The fight in scib, go there. The fight subsides there n emerges somewhere else, go there.

As an investor, you might hit it big once in a blue moon, but most of the time you will get stuck with paper loss. And put out of action for months when it is all quiet in your battlefront.

Another metaphor is a bee. I am like a bee. I fly from flower to flower to suck the honey depending in prevailing flowering season.

Btw. Where is the peak for YTLP? Do you know? Does anybody know? The clear answer is NO ONE KNOWS. Is there a possibility that 3.99 today is already THE ALL TIME PEAK? Possible isnt it. Bcause however good the company is share price will stabilise offpeak. Some 30 - 40% of peak. This is the risk of those just join in to invest for long term.

It is a misconception if you think by investing you will make good money n not lose big. Most of the time you will get stuck with paper loss. You wait n wait until you give up n sell at a loss. Then you go buy something else n repeat the cycle.

Did you know that someone bought rm560mil sapnrg fr ex-pm son at 1.47? It is now trading at 0.04. Had i bought it at 1.47 i would hv cut loss at 1.39 or higher. Understand now?