Posted by GSX1111 > 2024-05-23 20:46 | Report Abuse

share price need PAT Q on Q to grow only can hit next level. Because it had been up and factored in YTD Profit growth.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-23 21:00 | Report Abuse

YTL Power registered a decent set of results for Q3, though net profit of RM700m is lower than Q2 & Q1 when PowerSeraya was benefitting from high wholesale pool prices and some high margin retails contracts.

As I have earlier pointed out, I expected PowerSeraya net profit to be about S$180m to 200m per quarter. In this Q3, PowerSeraya contributed PBT of RM843m or net profit of RM699m = S$200m which was at the top end of my estimate.

Given that USEP in Singapore has already rebounded in mid March from a low in Feb, I expect such net profit of S$180m-200m per quarter for PowerSeraya to continue well into 2026.

I have in my latest article posted this afternoon projected a total net profit contribution of RM3.0 billion from PowerSeraya in FY2024. Now we have 9 months net profit of RM2.4 billion (PBT of RM2.9b x 83%) already from PowerSeraya, so if we have another RM700m of net profit from PowerSeraya in Q4, then full year net profit contribution may beat my estimate of RM3.0b for FY2024.

For FY2025, I have projected a net profit contribution of RM2,625m or S$750m from PowerSeraya. PowerSeraya was doing S$200m in this Q3 and I would expect this to continue in following quarters as there is no new capacity coming in before 2026. So PowerSeraya is likely to beat my projection for FY2025 as well.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-23 21:04 | Report Abuse

Wessex continued to bleed in Q3 with slightly smaller loss compared to Q2. This is so as UK inflation eased further in Q3 compared to Q2 and hence provisions for index-linked bonds were lower in Q3.

UK just announced CPI of 2.3% for the month of April 2024, the lowest in more than a year. Hence I will expect provision for index-linked bonds to be smaller going forward, which will help to turn around Wessex sooner.

Wessex has already gotten water tariff hike of 9+% from 1st April 2024, so I expect Wessex to register a small profit of RM30-40 million in this Q4 FY2024.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-23 21:07 | Report Abuse

Yes 5G division continues to disappoint with a larger loss of RM123m in Q3. Ground checks in Ipoh show that Yes has not been as aggressive as Maxis and CelcomDigi in attracting 5G subscribers with less promotion activities and a lot less representative shops. It does look like it will take longer time to break even, and I may have to allow some losses in FY2025 (currently I assume it will break even in FY2025).

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-23 21:10 | Report Abuse

Investment Holding Activities are contribution from Jawa Power, Jordan Power and also data centre division. As the 1st phase data centre with SEA Ltd was completed in late March 2024, so earnings contribution from data centre division to YTL Power should be negligible in Q3.

This means that Jawa Power and Jordan Power have contributed higher earnings of PBT RM150 million in Q3 from RM125m in Q2. This is encouraging, just as what I projected in my article for Jordan Power to register higher earnings every year as the project loan gets gradually paid off (hence lower interest expenses), and higher generation due to natural gas supply disruption in Jordan.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-23 21:16 | Report Abuse

Total borrowings remained at RM31b as of 31 Mar 2024 but cash holdings increased by RM400m to RM5.4b.

Operating cahsflows before capex and working capital changes increased to RM4.0 billion in 9 months of FY2024, annualised to RM5.3 billion which will be sufficient to meet capex requirements.

Capex totalled RM2.6 billion in the 9 months.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-23 21:18 | Report Abuse

Given the strong operating cashflows, it is not a surprise that the interim dividend is higher at 3.0 sen, compared to 2.5 sen last year.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-23 21:23 | Report Abuse

9 months EPS comes to 29 sen, annualised to 39 sen which should meet my projected earnings of RM3.2b for FY2024.

Going into FY2025, we can expect some small profit contribution from Wessex after the water tariff hike from April 2024, steady earnings contribution from PowerSeraya, Jawa Power and Jordan Power, maiden earnings contribution from UK Brabazon property project, RE export to Singapore, co-location data centre with SEA and 6-month contribution from AI data centre. I estimate these should help to push for higher earnings of YTL Power to about 46 sen of EPS in FY2025.

At current price of RM5.38, YTL Power is trading at undemanding forward PER of just 11.7x.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-23 21:33 | Report Abuse

Okay that's all for the Q3 update.

It is a temporary blip, and I am confident Q4 will be better as we shall see Wessex turn around and maiden earnings contribution from SEA data centre.

FY2025 and FY2026 will be even more exciting as AI data centres come into play.

Then come FY2028 we shall see another jump in YTL Power earnings when PowerSeraya's new 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT enters into commercial operations from Jan 2028.

Posted by Alan108 > 2024-05-23 21:56 | Report Abuse

TQVM Dragon 328 for your sharing.

Posted by goody99 > 2024-05-23 22:10 | Report Abuse

It is not a disappointing quarterly report for me. Wessex and YES 5G keep disappointing me quarter after quarter that I kind of expect this trend will continue until proven otherwise. The revenue of Wessex increased in last quarter, but net profit was affected by high depreciation. I am more confident about Wessex. YES 5G, well... not so much. Investment is all about future earnings. It is exciting time being YTLPOWER investors.

Posted by redhotpepper > 2024-05-23 22:11 | Report Abuse

@Dragon338 tq, very informative imdeed

Posted by jenson68 > 2024-05-23 22:36 | Report Abuse

NVIDIA crazy up after QR , follow by YTL and YTLpower tomorrow ?! Good Luck ..

Posted by cmchan11 > 2024-05-23 22:38 | Report Abuse

@Dragon328.Thks for all your hard work…

Posted by raymondroy > 2024-05-23 22:46 | Report Abuse

for comparison Sunway was also in this similar position at its Q announcement..... QoQ down 35% YoY up 22%, and after announcement day share price dipped 6c, also Suncon similar shape dipped 10c ..... YTLP QoQ down 17% YoY up 34% (but ytlp share price has appreciated much more)

Posted by VincentTang > 2024-05-23 23:02 | Report Abuse

Ytl and ytlpower big drop tomorrow?

Posted by VincentTang > 2024-05-23 23:05 | Report Abuse

Even the profit margin also start dropping

Posted by Mabel > 2024-05-23 23:06 | Report Abuse

Mabel's Sime Darby Property Beat expectations and will join our YTL Power to build Data Centre.

SDPR's 1Q24 core net profit of MYR124m (+1.2x YoY, -17% QoQ) positively surprised. 3M24 locked-in sales of MYR956m were also above our/management forecast/target. We raise FY24-26 earnings forecasts by +9% to +17% and TP to MYR1.13 (+27sen) on a higher 0.8x rolled forward FY25E P/B (+1SD to mean). The higher P/B is to reflect SDPRs strong position to benefit from rising demand for industrial properties in the Klang Valley.

In addition, Sime Darby Property Bhd (KL:SIMEPROP) said on Thursday it will build and lease out a hyperscale data centre at its Elmina Business Park in a deal worth RM2 billion, marking the group’s entry into the data centre segment.

The project is expected to begin in the second quarter of this year, and be completed in 2026, the developer said in a bourse filing. Once construction is completed, the group will sign a 20-year lease with Pearl Computing Malaysia Sdn Bhd — a wholly-owned unit of Singapore-based Raiden APAC Pte Ltd — with options to renew for two additional five-year terms.

To Our Success !

Meow

Posted by Mabel > 2024-05-23 23:24 | Report Abuse

Foreign funds have become net-buyers over the past couple of weeks. Foreign shareholding of Malaysian equities was 14% at the end of April 2024. If indeed it normalizes to 20% over the next few months, this would be a catalyst for a bull market..

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/05/22/can-bullish-sentiment-on-bursa-malaysia-continue?utm_source=Smartech&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailynewsalert&utm_content=20240523&__sta=vhg.uosvpxQddhqne.jsu0sv%7CUHBT&__stm_medium=email&__stm_source=smartech

Posted by cktay > 2024-05-23 23:37 | Report Abuse

Just a couple of comments from me.
I would like to point out that it is misleading to compare Q3 with the preceding Q2. Some are too quick to say that the results are not good because Q3 is lower than Q2.
I must point out that Q2 is for the Jan-Mar period when there is a long Chinese New Year break when businesses are closed for 1-2 weeks, so they are not comparable!
Secondly the dividends …
2022 … 2.0s +2.5s
2023 … 2.5s + 3.0s
2024 … 3.0s + ?
3.0s is just the 1st interim dividend. But you can see the dividend trend it upwards. (I am not unhappy)
On the whole, I feel the results are good.
I am however still disappointed with Wessex. My take is that it (over) ripe to be monetarized off (just like ElectraNet) to reap in extraordinary profits RMbillions (after holding for 21 years, bought cheap from Enron). More so when the MYR is so low.
The money can then be put to better use. Example if buy land like in Kulai estate, the price may have already appreciated by double and needless say, multinationals are hunting spree in Johore.
Thanks to Dragon for his research paper on “The Best Performing Stocks May Again Double Up in AI Driven Rally” I sincerely hope it will come true!
My take here is don’t laugh. I also believe it is better to stay with the winners. The not yet winners will take time before they really move up because their respective stale bulls need to liquidated first.
In a Super Bull-run, the tide will rise all ships, but I believe this ship will rise even higher because it is the leader of the pack!

Posted by MrFox > 2024-05-23 23:43 | Report Abuse

I would like to point out that it is misleading to compare Q3 with the preceding Q2. ........
that's y i say cant compare with the previous quarter because of seasonal factor! more appropraite comparing with corresponding Q of previous year!

Posted by Johnchew5 > 2024-05-24 00:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-05-24 05:29 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 thanks for the superb sharing.

Posted by Ravi1969 > 2024-05-24 07:48 | Report Abuse

Some people still living in the cave talking stories in the Caves

Posted by cktay > 2024-05-24 08:00 | Report Abuse

Nvidia stock pops 9%, tops $1,000 after earnings beat forecasts, announces stock split and dividend hike
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-pops-9-tops-1000-after-earnings-beat-forecasts-announces-stock-split-and-dividend-hike-202405060.html

Posted by cktay > 2024-05-24 08:00 | Report Abuse

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025
NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for First Quarter Fiscal 2025

Posted by GSX1111 > 2024-05-24 08:13 | Report Abuse

May i know this data center business, the SIME Darby is also building now. So the power supply can be from TNB or YTL Power ? or only TNB ?

Posted by GSX1111 > 2024-05-24 08:15 | Report Abuse

Read the edge today, SIME DARBY is building data center for a singopre company. I assume it should be at Johor, should the water consumption have to be from Ranhill

Posted by OnTime > 2024-05-24 08:18 | Report Abuse

expect to see rr88 here today

Posted by Mabel > 2024-05-24 08:20 | Report Abuse

GSX1111 May i know this data center business, the SIME Darby is also building now. So the power supply can be from TNB or YTL Power ? or only TNB ?
24/05/2024 8:13 AM

The data centre in Malaysia will be situated on a 49-acre (19.83-hectare) site within the 1,500-acre Elmina Business Park, the largest freehold industrial park in the Klang Valley.


According to Sime Darby Property, the group and its flagship Elmina Business Park were chosen based on strategic merits, including the group’s 50-year track record in large-scale integrated projects, the park’s robust infrastructure and prime location, as well as the group’s financial strength, which assures long-term lease certainty.

Read here for more details


https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712702

Posted by Mabel > 2024-05-24 08:57 | Report Abuse

Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) market capitalization continued to explode yesterday after the chip giant provided Wall Street investors with yet another stellar earnings report. The artificial intelligence (AI) leader is now worth the combined market cap of two other mega cap names, Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA).

Currently, retail and tech behemoth Amazon (AMZN) has a market cap of $1.90T while electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has a market cap of $559.48B, which together equate to $2.46T. That combined figure has been engulfed by Nvidia (NVDA), which is now Wall Street’s third-largest company by market cap at $2.56T.

Moreover, see how Nvidia’s (NVDA) market capitalization has rocketed higher since the 2020 Covid-19 trading year. Listed below is the market cap of NVDA by end of year levels:
2020: $323.24B
2021: $735.27B
2022: $364.18B
2023: $1.22T
Current: $2.56T

The semiconductor and AI focused stock has jumped up 10% yesterday and has climbed 111.3% in 2024 alone. On a wider scale, the Jensen Huang-led firm has advanced 2,648% over the past 5-years and 19,696% over the past 10-years.

Meow

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-24 08:59 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong upgrades tp for YTLPower to RM7.55

Affin upgrades tp to RM6.45

Good upgrades, unbiased

Posted by juon > 2024-05-24 09:11 | Report Abuse

jipai lu lang punya freedom fund now become prison fund liao, kekeke

welcome to warren buffet club, long long term investor (force to be long term,lol)

Posted by sexy > 2024-05-24 09:11 | Report Abuse

In shadows cast by dividends' fall, YTL Power's yield, now meek and small. The hope once bright, now dimmed in hue, Disappointment's hand, a heavy shoe.

No longer do the payouts gleam, The promise wanes, dissolves the dream. Investors’ hearts now heavy weigh, As lower dividends hold sway.

But in the gloom, a flicker bright, A data center’s hopeful light. Whispers of growth, of profit fair, A glimmer that dispels despair.

We pin our hopes on future gain, Through data streams, to break the chain. May growth arise from fiber’s thread, Reviving what we thought was dead.

YTL Power, hear our plea, Let new success our solace be. From disappointment, rise anew, In data’s realm, our dreams pursue.

Posted by 2721 > 2024-05-24 09:13 | Report Abuse

Manage to sapu some =)

Posted by OnTime > 2024-05-24 09:16 | Report Abuse

smart move

Posted by idkdontaskmelol > 2024-05-24 09:24 | Report Abuse

Game over kikiki. Even dat old uncle OT* oso sell call last week. C he so quiet?

Posted by PresidentLOL > 2024-05-24 09:29 | Report Abuse

Pak tua shud be motivator, not trader lololol.. also u said for ur team, go post in your group, not here LOL tut tut LOL

Posted by Hotstuff > 2024-05-24 09:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-24 09:33 | Report Abuse

CIMB raises tp for YTL Power to RM5.50

MIDF raises tp to RM6.35

Only Maybank lowers tp to RM5.20

Posted by MrFox > 2024-05-24 09:35 | Report Abuse

C believes my target!!!!

haha

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-05-24 09:35 | Report Abuse

Good move to buy at RM4.80 or below.

It is good to flush out some short term traders and let the stock cool off a bit, before we can see slow and steady climb later.

Q3 was just a blip, coming quarters will be stronger

Posted by Hotstuff > 2024-05-24 09:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2024-05-24 09:41 | Report Abuse

Shake hand Sama boss AI, lepaih Tu angkat goreng saham. Business tak dapat pun, kelentong saja kuat bosar ni

Posted by KLV868 > 2024-05-24 09:41 | Report Abuse

Good Day to all YTL BELIEVERS, the “investors” are happy to see this panic selling.

Posted by Hotstuff > 2024-05-24 09:47 | Report Abuse

Still SNS? Edi sold with 150k profit now buying flight ticket to London enjoy my holiday la. Who wants to be like you yelling for nothing every fking minute

Posted by troy88 > 2024-05-24 09:48 | Report Abuse

FF happy to makan panic bilis for breakfast

Posted by chopstick > 2024-05-24 09:50 | Report Abuse

hotstuff flying to holland

Posted by Johnchew5 > 2024-05-24 10:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2024-05-24 10:13 | Report Abuse

There is no AI in Malaysia as the culture here is not suitable for that