Posted by limayseng > 2015-02-10 16:10 | Report Abuse

CNY sales n offers will greatly enhance coming quarterly returns...as the GST is only effective on 1st april...

Posted by limayseng > 2015-02-10 16:24 | Report Abuse

note : it was once traded 2.13.....now is considered at its lowest....so accumulation is better at the lowest or at least at the lowest ....

Posted by whitesheep > 2015-02-10 17:51 | Report Abuse

expect good quarter result for Dec 2014

Posted by Venn Lee > 2015-02-10 19:49 | Report Abuse

1.35 also i buy liao

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-02-10 22:51 | Report Abuse

Hi Stock: it is a big member in my portfolio lei. Too big till I dare not to add more. Unfortunately, it is a big negative one. Cannot help falling love with its dividend.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-02-10 23:05 | Report Abuse

It is a great news that the "Management reaffirmed its commitment to pay 2.5sen dividend each quarter (equivalent to 10sen p.a.)". Revealed by Amresearch after the recent meeting with management.http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/amresearch/70126.jsp

Posted by CrossSymbol > 2015-02-11 01:07 | Report Abuse

Yea the 10sen div together with the price now is making the dividend yield very attractive! Hold it for long term and meanwhile take the dividend for long term investment :)

Posted by JN88 > 2015-02-11 07:58 | Report Abuse

Wahhh suddenly so many people say this is good counter ....make me so scared hahaha.....

Posted by Newbiebetta > 2015-02-11 10:32 | Report Abuse

Buy in, you never go regret with its dividend pay. I myself top up more yesterday.

Posted by limayseng > 2015-02-11 13:38 | Report Abuse

many r willing to buy when it is up ....not when it is at its low coz all gurus taught that ...if u r going for a real long term and interested in its high dividend n not share drabbling , u may consider buy at its ebb coz the returns later will be really good n surprising...

Posted by Hulk > 2015-02-12 07:24 | Report Abuse

I bought some at 1.37, sold at 1.45 for some pocket money....still hold some....hopefully good div.

Posted by JN88 > 2015-02-12 09:09 | Report Abuse

Profit taking....T+4

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 11:45 | Report Abuse

PADINI - Misunderstanding of Shrinking Margin Due to Getting Tough Competition? Or A Better Old Strategy to Use to Booth Revenue?

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 11:48 | Report Abuse

Last night, i carried out some study on PADINI due to it current super bargain valuation. From 52-week high price of 2.13 to current RM 1.45...Approximately 32% lower (or discount?)

Posted by Hearsay > 2015-02-12 11:57 | Report Abuse

View Price Target Detail


Date Open Price Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call Source
10/02/2015 1.38 1.70 +0.32 (23.19%) BUY AMMB
29/01/2015 1.48 1.70 +0.22 (14.86%) BUY KENANGA
14/01/2015 1.43 1.56 +0.13 (9.09%) HOLD RHB-OSK
29/12/2014 1.49 1.90 +0.41 (27.52%) HOLD RHB-OSK
27/11/2014 1.76 2.19 +0.43 (24.43%) BUY MIDF
27/11/2014 1.76 1.95 +0.19 (10.80%) BUY MAYBANK
27/11/2014 1.76 1.78 +0.02 (1.14%) HOLD KENANGA
27/11/2014 1.76 1.80 +0.04 (2.27%) HOLD JF APEX
27/11/2014 1.76 1.80 +0.04 (2.27%) HOLD AMMB
27/11/2014 1.76 1.77 +0.01 (0.57%) HOLD ALLIANCE

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 12:05 | Report Abuse

PARAMETERS
06/30/07 06/30/08 06/30/09 06/30/10 06/30/11 06/30/12 06/30/13 06/30/14

Revenue RM
316,866,000 383,306,000 475,477,000 520,880,000 568,476,000 723,411,000 789,520,000 866,258,000

COGS
163,719,000 192,353,000 241,958,000 259,547,000 277,672,000 374,821,000 420,932,000 466,224,000

Gross Proft
153,147,000 190,953,000 233,519,000 261,333,000 290,804,000 348,590,000 368,588,000 400,034,000

Operating Profit Before Tax (NOPBT)
44,007,000 57,659,000 67,610,000 86,280,000 105,057,000 130,649,000 117,658,000 125,719,000

Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)
31,442,000 41,750,000 49,533,000 60,974,000 74,661,000 96,001,000 85,393,000 90,913,000


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GROSS PROFIT MARGIN (%)

48.33% 49.82% 49.11% 50.17% 51.16% 48.19% 46.69% 46.18%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOPBT margin (%)

13.89% 15.04% 14.22% 16.56% 18.48% 18.06% 14.90% 14.51%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOPAT margin (%)

9.92% 10.89% 10.42% 11.71% 13.13% 13.27% 10.82% 10.49%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My personal interpretation:
1) Gross Profit, NOPBT & NOPAT margin were higher in year 2010 - 2012, thereafter, it stable back to lower margin as per 2008 to 2009 when market is recovering back from 2008 crisis.

2) The management has established a good proven business strategies which will ensure continuous flowing in of higher dollar revenue and profit. We can see a steady growth of Revenue and Profit for the past 7 years by altering around the profit margin.

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 12:26 | Report Abuse

Outstanding Shares
131,538,000 131,538,000 131,582,000 131,582,000 657,910,000 657,910,000 657,910,000 657,910,000

Share Price 31 December
0.09 0.57 0.48 0.76 1.06 1.84 1.89 1.97

Market Capitalization
11,838,420 74,976,660 63,159,360 100,002,320 697,384,600 1,210,554,400 1,243,449,900 1,296,082,700

Enterprize Value
12,807,420 128,148,660 65,270,360 67,312,320 720,424,600 1,181,795,400 1,165,019,900 1,306,065,700

Fixed Asset (P,P,E)
50,317,000 70,748,000 75,887,000 79,953,000 83,621,000 90,261,000 88,281,000 108,717,000

Total Non Current Asset
53,613,000 74,444,000 81,212,000 92,257,000 94,585,000 102,039,000 99,906,000 119,475,000

Trade Receivable & other receiable
25,949,000 30,199,000 33,064,000 32,561,000 39,433,000 47,787,000 49,609,000 55,157,000

Cash/Short term investment/ Deposit
52,098,000 41,664,000 84,566,000 154,940,000 138,622,000 170,955,000 218,549,000 171,243,000

Total Asset
195,734,000 264,314,000 290,720,000 356,582,000 444,339,000 482,305,000 512,345,000 568,890,000

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 12:28 | Report Abuse

Current Liability (including dividend,trade payable etc)
48,718,000 91,622,000 83,273,000 111,351,000 137,947,000 120,393,000 116,618,000 158,825,000

Non-Current Liability
4,349,000 3,214,000 3,404,000 10,899,000 23,715,000 21,803,000 23,501,000 22,401,000

Total Liability
53,067,000 94,836,000 86,677,000 122,250,000 161,662,000 142,196,000 140,119,000 181,226,000

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 12:28 | Report Abuse

Total Equity
142,667,000 169,478,000 204,043,000 234,332,000 282,677,000 340,109,000 372,226,000 387,664,000

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 12:30 | Report Abuse

Earning before Interest & Tax (EBIT)
44,346,000 58,428,000 69,135,000 87,374,000 106,630,000 132,977,000 119,630,000 127,935,000

EBITDA
52,392,000 70,855,000 88,826,000 109,173,000 128,962,000 153,295,000 141,812,000 151,565,000

Cash and Cash Equivalent at the end of period
52,098,000 41,664,000 65,621,000 135,025,000 138,622,000 137,612,000 206,214,000 97,450,000 137,449,000(Sept 2014)

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 12:31 | Report Abuse

DuPont's ROE
22.04% 24.63% 24.28% 26.02% 26.41% 28.23% 22.94% 23.45%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.0992 0.1089 0.1042 0.1171 0.1313 0.1327 0.1082 0.1049
1.6189 1.4502 1.6355 1.4608 1.2794 1.4999 1.5410 1.5227
1.3720 1.5596 1.4248 1.5217 1.5719 1.4181 1.3764 1.4675

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 12:33 | Report Abuse

Return of Asset (%)
16.06% 15.80% 17.04% 17.10% 16.80% 19.90% 16.67% 15.98%

Return of Invested Capital (ROIC) (%)
31.13% 26.71% 31.64% 53.30% 37.32% 38.18% 44.30% 33.41%

Earning Yield (Magic Formula) (%)
346.25% 45.59% 105.92% 129.80% 14.80% 11.25% 10.27% 13.27% (based on 1.45 share price)

PE Ratio using Magic Formula
0.29 2.19 0.94 0.77 6.76 8.89 9.74 7.53 (Value Seen Here!)

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 12:38 | Report Abuse

Current Ratio
2.92 2.07 2.52 2.37 2.54 3.16 3.54 2.83

Debt To Equity Ratio
0.37 0.56 0.42 0.52 0.57 0.42 0.38 0.47

Asset Turn Over
1.6189 1.6664 1.7133 1.6094 1.4196 1.5614 1.59 1.60

Receivable Turn Ratio (days)
30 27 24 23 23 22 23 22

Inventories Turn Over (times per year)
2.56 2.14 2.33 3.08 2.24 2.06 2.50 2.55

Free Cash Flow (FCF)
3,078,000 -27,491,000 40,488,000 67,823,000 -26,832,000 -2,740,000 145,492,000 10,328,000

Inventories Over Revenue
20.21% 30.29% 19.32% 14.70% 30.07% 26.58% 18.22% 25.64%

Net Receiveable Over Revenue (%)
8.19% 7.88% 6.95% 6.25% 6.94% 6.61% 6.28% 6.37%

Dividend Payout Ratio
103.14% 47.30% 37.19% 9.71% 34.75% 41.12% 62.06% 83.21%


Revenue Over Capex
13.11 11.74 21.17 20.28 22.99 26.96 48.99 20.81

Net Income Over CAPEX
1.30 1.28 2.20 2.37 3.02 3.58 5.30 2.18

Capex Requirement (%) per dollar net earning
76.88% 78.22% 45.35% 42.13% 33.12% 27.95% 18.87% 45.79%


Retained Earning contribute to Total Equity (%)
53.80% 61.18% 67.76% 71.92% 76.73% 80.66% 82.32% 83.03%

Share Capital Contribute To Total Equity (%)
46.12% 38.82% 32.24% 28.08% 23.27% 19.34% 17.68% 16.97%


Current Asset to Total Asset
72.61% 71.84% 72.07% 74.13% 78.71% 78.84% 80.50% 79.00%

Posted by truthseeker1 > 2015-02-12 13:13 | Report Abuse

Why none of their directors are buying? Not low enough?

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-12 14:19 | Report Abuse

Market Value (Share Price) Generation per $ EPS Retained
0.37 1.02 0.51 0.54 0.70 1.11 1.0563 1.0221

@ 8 years Average: 0.79

Target Price (1)
0.79 x 1.9274 = RM 1.52 # (current RM 1.45 is pretty fair price)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
@ latest 3 years average: 1.06

Target Price (2)
1.06 x 1.9274 = RM 2.04 # (based on up to Jun 2014 cummulative's EPS)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By using TTM EPS,
0.79 x 1.9142 = RM 1.51 # (current RM 1.45 is pretty fair price
1.06 x 1.9142 = RM 2.03 (based on TTM's cummulative EPS)

Posted by JN88 > 2015-02-12 19:11 | Report Abuse

So many good QR from other company...hopefully PADINI also follow the trend...hehehe

Posted by ImCK > 2015-02-12 19:13 | Report Abuse

lol JN88 where you see many good QR from other company --

Posted by JN88 > 2015-02-12 19:16 | Report Abuse

@ImCK: last year many many people keep talking year 2014 is very very very bad....hahaha but look at the company reports many of them + net profit...sekurang kurang ada untung...

Posted by apini > 2015-02-12 19:22 | Report Abuse

Yistock,
I find your TP calculation very interesting, mind to share how you get these values 0.37 1.02 0.51.... and the multiplication factor 1.9274.

thank you

Posted by shinado > 2015-02-12 20:03 | Report Abuse

To some of these people saying that Padini is losing out due to competition from H&M, Uniqlo, etc. etc...Please check Wing Tai's latest Q report: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1875509

Wing Tai owns part of Uniqlo in Malaysia, and their retail revenue and profit also decreased. So not only Padini is affected, but the retail sector as in whole is currently affected.

Posted by apini > 2015-02-12 23:17 | Report Abuse

yistock,
mind to explain what is "PE Ratio using Magic Formula" what's the different with the PE we normally use.
can someone please kindly share with us , thank you.

Posted by apini > 2015-02-12 23:21 | Report Abuse

I hope you will not ask me to attend your online course. I will buy padini when it reaches the EY I targeted.

Posted by Chief > 2015-02-12 23:33 | Report Abuse

Yeah, would love to know what is "PE Ratio using Magic Formula" too. Hope yistock can give some explanation.

Thank you!

Posted by alpha investor > 2015-02-13 01:05 | Report Abuse

Is it 'The Little books that beats the market' by Greenblatt?

Posted by alpha investor > 2015-02-13 10:51 | Report Abuse

Thank you yistock for sharing, will look into the book!

Posted by win2win > 2015-02-13 13:33 | Report Abuse

@yistock what is the conclusion after doing all these calculations? Is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? Please advise

Posted by win2win > 2015-02-13 13:34 | Report Abuse

@yistock I meant is the company performing well and all

Posted by apini > 2015-02-13 13:39 | Report Abuse

Thank you Yistock,

can we say that if we emphasize on earning growth, then current price is a bit overvalue, if you want dividend then the current price is a good buy? I am non expert, I just judge base on what I feel

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-13 14:06 | Report Abuse

#win2win,

I personally think management is working very hard to bring in every dollar or sales/ money, rather than die die want to hold to the margin. This is typical sales procedures, lower margin, higher sales, or vice versa. Nothing wrong.

Is like an old question from a staff of mine to me: Boss, you want money or not?

#Apini, since nobody can tell the future, i think is fairer for investor to judge the company's past and trying to predict the future. No use the furure, to predict future's future.

Mr KCChongnz always mentioned that valuation is an art, rather than science, i suppose different people has different valuation judgement.

My very personal view based on my risk appetite, currently Padini is trading pretty fairly. But my "fairly" can be expensive to some if they are pessimistic about upcoming retail market pre - & post - GST.

Imaging those days when PADINI traded at RM 2.00, is it because of investor too optimistic? or Too greedy?

How about now, it seems many are fearful.

Since the share investment fundamental is still a zero sum game, the share price will sure reflect the value of the company one day. It cannot appear/ disappear suddenly from thin air.

By the way, i usually treat dividend as bonus. Just my humble opinion. Cheers!

Posted by win2win > 2015-02-13 14:34 | Report Abuse

@yistock what do you think about padini's share price after implementation of GST?

Posted by walau2u > 2015-02-13 15:13 | Report Abuse

Wingtai uniqlo reported weak earning, be careful....padini may drop below 1.4 again.....

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-13 16:58 | Report Abuse

walau2u, correct me if i'm wrong,

just check through Wingtai quarter report, from RETAIL SEGMENT, the revenue compared to preceding quarter has grown from RM 40,807,000 to RM 45,426,000 or approximately +11.3%.

The profit compared preceding quarter for RETAIL SEGMENT has grown from RM 4,929,000 to RM 7,217,000. or approximately + 46.4%

Posted by walau2u > 2015-02-13 17:07 | Report Abuse

Yistock, u need compare with same quarter.....net profit drop from 17.8 to 12.1....Padini most likely will face similar fate.....

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-13 17:15 | Report Abuse

just check through same quarter 2013, sales RM 53,150,000 and profit RM 8,800,000.

Therefore, Revenue drop 14.5%, profit drop 18% from corresponding quarter.

Posted by walau2u > 2015-02-13 17:22 | Report Abuse

Amresearch reported dividend at 0.1 per share will be maintained and price up from 1.38 to 1.46....is this a trap?

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-13 17:36 | Report Abuse

booast revenue with a thin margin

Posted by YiStock > 2015-02-13 17:43 | Report Abuse

From the valuation report, PADINI has been establishing a "investment feasibility stadard" at approximately 200% to 250% of Revenue Over Capex for the past 8 years. Just predicting, the target revenue for upcoming quarter should be around RM 230 million to RM 280 million.

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-13 17:45 | Report Abuse

the profit margin now is single digit, right

Posted by kc888 > 2015-02-13 18:58 | Report Abuse

Revenue may up but margin may getting lower n lower.......

Posted by optimusprime > 2015-02-13 22:24 | Report Abuse

the only hope is IF uniqlo want to acquire them. if not. it will go below 1.00