Posted by Choivo Capital > 2023-12-07 22:42 | Report Abuse

the warrants do seem abit interesting.

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-12-08 11:55 | Report Abuse

Yinson basically flat for the year. Some peanut dividends to satisfy you while waiting.

Posted by Vdhawan > 2023-12-08 12:32 | Report Abuse

Yup, we will get the peanut dividend next Friday. yay 😂

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-08 13:31 | Report Abuse

Modec is the FPSO provider listed in Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Yinson is the FPSO provider listed in KLSE.
Please note that Yinson is a better quality performer compared to Modec.

Modec
What is the share price of Modec listed in the Tokyo Stock Exchange ?
The share price of Modec closed at 1957 Yen on 7/12/2023.
The paid up capital of Modec = 18,166 million Yen.
EPS = 109.80 Yen
PER = 17.82

Convert to RM
The share price of Modec closed at 1957 Yen on 7/12/2023.
Ans - RM = 63.18.
The paid up capital of Modec = 18,166 million Yen.
Ans - RM = 590 million.

Yinson
The share price of Yinson = RM 2.50.
The paid up capital of Yinson = RM 3.064 billion.
EPS = 24.84 sen (last 4 quarter EPS)
PER = 9.98

Based on the same PER of Modec.
PER of Modec = 17.82
Then the share price of Yinson listed in KLSE should be = 4.46.

Conclusion
1.) The share price of Yinson is really undervalued.
2.) In terms of performance, Yinson is a better performer or bidder compared to Modec.
3.) Yinson shares are listed in KLSE, do not expect a better performance if compared to Modec shares listed in Tokyo Stock Exchange.
4.) KLSE is the worst stock market in the world.

Quote !!
Our KLSE has not performed well over the last 30 years.
I still remember FBMKLCI was at a record high at 1,332 in January 1994, the FBMKLCI increased only 100 points until 2023.

JSX or Jakarta stock market (Indonesia) has increased 650% in the last 30 years.
Really very disappointed with KLSE, the worst stock market in the world.
Unquote !!

Thank you.

Posted by Permutation > 2023-12-08 15:28 | Report Abuse

If Yinson is going to be flat in 2024 as well then the mother share would be a better choice?

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-12-08 16:13 | Report Abuse

Quote !!
Our KLSE has not performed well over the last 30 years.
I still remember FBMKLCI was at a record high at 1,332 in January 1994, the FBMKLCI increased only 100 points until 2023.

JSX or Jakarta stock market (Indonesia) has increased 650% in the last 30 years.
Really very disappointed with KLSE, the worst stock market in the world.
Unquote !!




This thing has been bugging me too. Why KLSE performs so poorly. The weak ringgit makes it the more appealing to USD investors at this stage. For a moment, we saw some light. There was a property and construction run, there were privatisations, BPlant, UMW. Market was moving in the right direction for a while. Meanwhile Anwar is shouting sky high figures he secured going on world tour. So, where are the foreign investors. How does Anwar intend to implement execute the local projects?

If Anwar disappoints, sigh. There'll come a time even the last of us stop hoping and move everything to overseas investments, it's just a click away barring capital outflows rules...but if the last of us do leave, that will be the time the market comes roaring back lol

I can't remember the last time we can play breakout on KLSE...trends dont last. Maybe UEMS YTL, but that's about it. Sad.

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-12-08 16:15 | Report Abuse

Permutation

If Yinson is going to be flat in 2024 as well then the mother share would be a better choice?

44 minutes ago



1) I look at it this way...below 0.500 I will exercise it for around 2.80. I am ok with 2.80 for Yinson. Just have to make sure got enough money to exercise since as it goes down I may buy up millions and then the exercise cost will run into tens of millions lol

2) Yinson is low dividend yield this is good for warrants

3) Yinson warrants is fairly liquid

4) A counter like Yinson should not ordinarily have warrants. Blue chip counter with this type of warrants is rare.

So I think, warrants > mother share, especially now

We must remember warrants premium increase as mother share falls, and usually narrows as mother share rises. So we can't value warrants based on a fixed premium

Posted by Permutation > 2023-12-11 13:02 | Report Abuse

QTR 31.10.2023 results due out by end of the month. Looks like it will still meet expectation, but the share price is still listless. Disappointing indeed.

Posted by yewnamhung > 2023-12-12 09:53 | Report Abuse

Wake up !!!

Posted by Vdhawan > 2023-12-12 11:44 | Report Abuse

wow, EPF keeps buying. Good news coming?

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-12-12 13:13 | Report Abuse

Well, for other counters, news like this is big news. For Yinson apparently not much of an event. I think it's a meaningful plus - vouch of confidence by the banks and cashflow wise. Yinson's business is much bigger than its market cap. Reminds me of MMC...

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/693546

Posted by novel23 > 2023-12-13 12:41 | Report Abuse

warrant drop til 0.45 already, risky but good opportunity

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-13 15:21 | Report Abuse

Quote !!
The management of Yinson is very good in securing FPSO contracts and making Yinson a very profitable company.
However, the management of Yinson is not good in supporting the share price of Yinson.

I believe Tan Sri Francis Yeoh will be a better director to support the share price of YTLPower.
Foreign funds are brought in to buy and take up the stake of EPF shareholdings of YTLPower.

I hope the Board Of Directors of Yinson will follow the same footsteps of Tan Sri Francis Yeoh to support the share prices of Yinson and Yinson-WA.
Unquote !!
----------------------
I believe Yinson will make a billion net profit or PAT for FY 2024 (January 2024).
However, the share price of Yinson cannot move up north for no reason.
The worst part is the share price of Yinson-WA is hitting new low and it is out of money.
I cannot believe the real happening here.

According to the below IBs, the target price of Yinson should be as follows :-
Maybank - 5.05
AMI - 3.98
Kenanga - 3.79
UOB - 3.95
CIMB - 3.57

IB reports and target price projections
IB/FY2024/FY2025/TP
MBB/872/1008/5.05
UOB /648/854/3.95
KEN/603/731/3.79
AMI/823/798/3.98
CIMB/1036/982/3.57
Note :
All 10 analysts recommending a buy on Yinson, no hold or sell call from all analysts. All analysts from all investment banks will not recommend Yinson if there is no strong potential in this stock.

To me, I blame the Board Of Directors of Yinson for not supporting the share prices.
Unlike Tan Sri Francis Yeoh who is a good director, he brings in foreign investors to buy up the shares holding of EPF. He also brings in foreign investors to buy a big portion of YTLPower shares.
I wish Tan Sri Francis Yeoh can be a director of Yinson, in this case the share price of Yinson will hit 5.05 which is the target price set up by Maybank IB.
Then Yinson can be another component stock of FBMKLCI in 2023 together with YTLPower and YTL.
A big disappointment here.

The 4 FPSO projects that Yinson secured will help Yinson to make a net profit or PAT of 1.1 billion for the next 15 to 20 years.
How many stocks listed in KLSE can make a PAT of 1.1 billion a year ?
Answer : Not more than 30 counters I guessed.
Thank you.

Posted by BursaVulture > 2023-12-13 16:03 | Report Abuse

I think YTL and YTLP are run by different people, both brothers. Seems like YTLP is the one that drives the growth, not YTL.

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-13 16:39 | Report Abuse

I believe the CEO of Yinson is also a very capable and smart person.
He is a real good CEO to make Yinson a very profitable company and enable Yinson to compete internationally especially on FPSO projects.
He just does not know how to create value for Yinson in the stock market.
He does not know how the stock market works in great details.
Very sad for Yinson !!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2023-12-13 16:43 | Report Abuse

I would disagree. YTL and YTLP just happen to have good sentiment now.

Just give it a few Q.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2023-12-13 16:49 | Report Abuse

UncleFollower

I think odds for yinson to double before warrant expires in 2025 is pretty decent. If that happens, you get 6x if you take warrants.

But the risk is that, oil price crashes, sentiment is bad, and so despite executing, share price goes down and stays even, and so you lose 100% of the warrant.

High risk, high gain game :)

Ofc lets not forget, fire risk, accident risk, natural disaster risk. All this is quite real in FSPO business, though it has not impacted yinson yet.

By buying shares, you only make 2x if yinson executes and market sentiment normal, but you can hold onto the shares if anything happen.

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-13 17:02 | Report Abuse

The cost of production of oil using FPSO is < USD10.
I believe the price of crude oil will be > USD 60 for the next few years.
The owners of oil company using FPSO are laughing all the way to the bank.
The small drop of crude oil price will not affect FPSO operators.
So far no owner of oil company terminated FPSO contract with Yinson.
FPSO business is the cash cow of Yinson for the next 15 to 20 years.
Thank you.

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-13 17:07 | Report Abuse

The business of YTLPower will be good at least until 2026.
Buy and hold YTLPower shares until 2025 is good enough to make the huge profit.

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-12-13 17:43 | Report Abuse

Choivo

Correct, as you said, 6x gearing for 10% premium at today's price. I'll take it lol

Results due tomorrow, mother share movement indicates no surprises...warrants...low liquidity causes this volatility

Posted by BursaVulture > 2023-12-13 20:37 | Report Abuse

@Choivo Capital

I agree on the YTLP sentiment, I believe their power plant in Singapore consist of 70%+ of their profit. and they already have 2 or 3 data centres, I doubt Nvidia project will contribute much to the bottom line. If cost is not a reason, Nvidia would have chosen singapore for their data centre, they already have their regional HQ and research there. Just like Dyson setting up their HQ in singapore and sub out the low end job to Malaysia.

Posted by yewnamhung > 2023-12-14 11:06 | Report Abuse

Old car must push...push....push !!!

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-12-14 13:30 | Report Abuse

If Yinson tumbled because of endless rate hike fears, this is it

Increasing volume and BQ becoming fatter

I don't usually like breakout trades but chart wise, the stars are aligned. We just need a little nudge from anywhere and the tide could turn

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-12-14 13:30 | Report Abuse

To quote Mr Koon Yew Yin: I am obliged to inform you that I am heavily invested in Yinson which is a multi-B company and do not need you to buy to support the price 🤣🤣🤣

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-12-14 13:33 | Report Abuse

This would sound ridiculous and disillusionary but why do I see a super large pennant starting from mid-Apr till now 😂😂😂

Posted by Permutation > 2023-12-14 18:58 | Report Abuse

Good Qtr Result. Hope stock price will perform better in days to come.

Posted by BursaVulture > 2023-12-14 20:21 | Report Abuse

tomorrow will fly? pigs can fly... wait until my beard reach the ground liao.

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-14 21:13 | Report Abuse

Q3 2024 result only reported one FPSO Anna Nery (USD 5.4 billion contract) project, net profit =248 million.
Q3 2025 result will report additional two FPSO (Atlanta - USD 1.9 billion contract and Maria Q - USD 5.2 billion contract) projects.
Q1 2026 result will report additional FPSO Agogo (USD 5.3 billion contract) project.

When all these 4 FPSO contracts are in operations, additional PAT of 1.1 billion per year will be reported in the annual result.
Good luck.
Thank you.

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-14 21:57 | Report Abuse

Please read the below link.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/new-addition-to-yinson-productions-fpso-fleet-named-at-dubai-drydocks-world-gallery/
---------------------
FPSO Atlanta is almost ready for operations in Brazil.
Will find oil soon in 2024.
Good luck.
Thank you.

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-12-15 09:32 | Report Abuse

Yinson and KLSE have been sluggish for so long it's hard to believe, but the stars are aligned

Still very early, but for a long time now, it will be nice to see a confirmation of breakout and a sustained new uptrend

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-12-15 14:31 | Report Abuse

FPSO Atlanta was 72% complete at end-Oct 2023 and first oil is targeted for mid-CY24F
FPSO Maria Quiteria reached 82% completion at end-Oct 2023
FPSO Agogo reached 41% completion at end-Oct 2023, with first oil targeted for 1QCY26F

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-12-15 14:34 | Report Abuse

In a shock development, Latin American energy giant Brazil announced it will join the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries, including some of the world’s biggest such as Russia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The consortium works in concert to coordinate and unify petroleum production to secure pricing for the benefit of its members. Brazil, which government data shows pumped 3.5 million barrels per day for October 2023, intends to join OPEC+ during January 2024. In a surprise development, the CEO of Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras announced that Latin America’s largest oil producer will not participate in the consortium's coordinated production caps. This news highlights how much of a risk Brazil’s oil boom and growing hydrocarbon production pose to OPEC+’s ability to control global petroleum prices.

In less than two decades, Brazil went from being a marginal oil producer to the world's ninth largest with the country poised to enter the global top five by the end of the decade. Brazil, which is Latin America’s leading economy, possesses the region’s second-largest oil reserves after neighboring Venezuela. According to the hydrocarbon regulator, the Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels or ANP, at the end of 2022 Brazil held proven reserves (1P) of 14.9 billion barrels and proven and possible (2P) reserves of 21.9 billion barrels. The federal government in Brasilia initiated the Potencializa E&P program to expand Brazil’s oil reserves and production. The plan aims to secure investment for the development of marginal as well as frontier oil basins to boost production to 5.4 million barrels per day by 2029, an increase of 54% over October 2023, making Brazil the world's fourth largest oil producer.

The primary contributor to such a substantial hike in petroleum production will be state-controlled Petrobras. Brazil’s national oil company, as part of its 2024 to 2028 Strategic Plan, has budgeted total capital expenditures over that period of $102 billion, which is a 31% or $24 billion increase over the previous 2023 to 2027 strategic plan. Petrobras has earmarked 72% or $73 billion of that budget for spending on exploration and production activities, leading to higher hydrocarbon reserves as well as production. Of that amount, $7.5 billion is earmarked for exploration activities between 2024 and 2028. This will fund the drilling of 50 new wells with 25 planned for Brazil’s Southeast Basins another 16 in the Equatorial Margin and the remainder to be drilled in offshore Colombia.

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-12-15 14:39 | Report Abuse

One fact you need to understand about Brazil. Is that most of Brazil's production is offshore and most of its truly promising fields are not simply under the two miles of ocean, but under an additional two miles of seabed.

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-12-15 14:41 | Report Abuse

The balance of $65 billion will be invested to develop oil-producing assets. According to the Strategic Plan, $22 billion is set aside for projects in the Campos Basin with four new floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels to be put in place by the end of 2028.

Posted by Permutation > 2023-12-15 17:54 | Report Abuse

What will drive Yinson stock price? All IBs covering the stock recommended a buy and yet listless after good qtr result. Are foreign institutional investors shying away from oil related stock?
Perhaps need to wait for 2 more quarters results before potential investors /traders are convinced that Yinson can consistently deliver good results?

Posted by ImCK > 2023-12-16 17:00 | Report Abuse

keep borrowing never stop negative cashflow

Posted by ImCK > 2023-12-16 17:01 | Report Abuse

any black swam happen yinson go bankrupt

Posted by Permutation > 2023-12-17 23:18 | Report Abuse

The CEO Lim Chern Yuan made the following comment in “ the edge” article 4 months ago :--
“We have never been in such a good position to negotiate contracts, with our order book, we are looking at closer to a billion dollars of Ebitda by 2025, 2026.”

With that kind of statement, you can be rest assured that he knows what he is talking about and we just need to be patient and wait another two qtr results to see the price performance. One needs patience to win ? no?

Posted by BursaVulture > 2023-12-18 09:28 | Report Abuse

pigs fly...

Posted by Permutation > 2023-12-22 19:04 | Report Abuse

OTB, is Yinson TA bullish now?? tq

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-22 19:49 | Report Abuse

The share price of Yinson must close higher than 2.50 which is the 200-day SMA.
20-week EMA is at 2.47.
Weekly MACD is a buy signal now.
TA is still weak.
Thank you.

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-26 10:03 | Report Abuse

FY/PAT/Growth/Price/EPS/PER
FY2022/1257/-/0.67/0.16/4.32
FY2023/2022/61%/1.85/0.25/7.41
FY2024F/3000/48%/2.48/0.42/5.90
The average PER for the last 2 years is 5.86.
Presently at 2.48, the share price of YTLPower is trading at a PER 5.90.
At least the share price of YTLPower still perform according to the previous PER.

FY/PAT/Growth/Price/EPS/PER
FY2022/401/27%/1.96/0.13/15.08
FY2023/586/46%/2.39/0.21/11.22
FY2024F/956/63%/2.45/0.31/7.85
The average PER for the last 2 years is 13.15.
The PAT grows at 27%, 46% and 63% for FY2022, FY2023 and FY2024 respectively.
Presently at 2.45, the share price of Yinson is trading at a PER 7.85.
If using the average PER=13.15, Yinson should be trading at 4.07 in FY 2024.
The present share price of Yinson at 2.45 is really undervalued, no reason for such a low price.
Hope for better luck in 2024.
Thank you.

Posted by Permutation > 2023-12-26 18:02 | Report Abuse

Trading at attractive PE indeed. Perhaps if the next qtr results can be as good or better than the 3rd qtr result then it could just take off in late March 2023. no?

Posted by BursaVulture > 2023-12-29 17:11 | Report Abuse

Wait until my beard touches the ground liao. Does the CEO even reads the comment for their ChargeEV? Clearly it is a waste of time and money. Bad reviews on app. Maybe need to wait till 2025 when they become cash flow positive. 2024… unless investor buy before news, if not, no chance to fly.

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-12-29 20:36 | Report Abuse

2024 is Yinson's inflection point in turning around their CF. stay invested.

Posted by OTB > 2023-12-29 21:13 | Report Abuse

我等到花兒也謝了.
Hope that I do not need to wait for 3 years.

I am very disappointed on this stock despite the net earning (PAT) grows at 27%, 46% and 63% for FY 2022, FY 2023 and FY 2024 respectively.
Presently at 2.50, the share price of Yinson is trading at a PER 8.06.
If using the average PER=13.15, Yinson should be trading at 4.07 in FY 2024.
The present share price of Yinson at 2.50 is really undervalued, no reason for such a low price.
Hope for better luck in 2024.
Thank you.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2023-12-29 21:52 | Report Abuse

I am probably one of the largest long term investors in yinson and have been invested since 2012. All I can say is that it is more wise to look at yinson as a cyclical business that takes time to gestate and grow. You can take their initial foray into Vietnam as an example.

1. Get a contract with a clean and clear delivery date and good payment rate which is based on the contract value minus the ship construction cost in China.
2. Make sure that you get some advance to help you pay your way through the construction period where you still own the ship at the end.
3. Borrow money to fund the ship construction.
4. Gestate for the 3-5 years while you complete the fpso.
5. Get a very strong team to keep everything on time and on budget.
6. Get to first oil and keep production high.

From there rinse and repeat.

Yinson has done this very very well over the decade. And they are still keeping to this bread and butter business with good funding.

For me I will never know when the share price will go up, but I bought at a cheap price and will continue to hold as the fundamentals remain intact.

Posted by UncleFollower > 2024-01-04 17:45 | Report Abuse

Yinson staging 2nd attempt now. Breaking 2.59 will be very bullish?

Anyway, with property construction and YTL run, they should lend us patience to wait on this sleeping giant




OTB

The share price of Yinson must close higher than 2.50 which is the 200-day SMA.
20-week EMA is at 2.47.
Weekly MACD is a buy signal now.
TA is still weak.
Thank you.

1 week ago

Posted by Permutation > 2024-01-04 17:45 | Report Abuse

OMG....Up a few sen, these two pension fund start to sell??

Posted by UncleFollower > 2024-01-04 17:51 | Report Abuse

For a counter of this size Yinson's volume has always been low. Low when it rises, low when it falls.

Management please try to address this issue...look at YTL now, and as always MYEG.

If only Yinson has this kind of volume it should easily hit analyst TPs 😃