Tomolo AGM, anyone attending? Got ask Q ah? Unfortunately, I not free to attend. Can help to ask following Q? 1. The tax reduction from 38% to 24%, what is the % of their asset benefit from this and for how long? Only 1 yr or more? 2. Repsol updates.
CIRCULAR TO SHAREHOLDERS IN RELATION TO THE PROPOSED ACQUISITION BY PENINSULA HIBISCUS SDN BHD, AN INDIRECT WHOLLY-OWNED SUBSIDIARY OF HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BERHAD, OF THE ENTIRE ISSUED SHARE CAPITAL OF FORTUNA INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION FOR A CASH CONSIDERATION OF USD212.5 MILLION (OR EQUIVALENT TO APPROXIMATELY RM879.5 MILLION)
During the last 2 quarterly report, Hibiscus reported 49 mil with crude around 62 and 41 mil with crude around 72. With crude around 70+, I suppose Hibiscus should report an annual profit of between 200 mil and 250 mil depending on drilling efficiency. Repsol acquisition earning potential has not yet been considered and currently Hibiscus has a market cap of about 1.5 bil. I am hoping for more, but guess it's not appreciated by the market, just hope I am not wrong...
@kahhoeng i dont think your figures are correct. It is clearly stated in their latest quarter report, their realized oil price is $75 for North Sabah and $76.31 for Anansuria which is higher than current oil price. During those period crude is not around $62 but it is around $70-$76 (except for month August). So not sure where you get your figure 62 from?
Plus a malfunction of a critical component of the subsea infrastructure was identified in their Anansuria project which wont be fixed till 3rd quarter 2022. So I expect a flattish quarter from them.
witan, my apology, when I said crude around 62 and 72, I meant brent crude oil price based on my tracking. Hibiscus's Malaysia oil tends to fetch a higher price due to higher grade drilled oil. Post Q1FY2022, brent reached a high of 86 (or 87?) and a low of 70 (or 71?). With recent test to drive brent lower due to US Fed's pending decision and IEA saying crude oil in surplus condition, brent has been holding up quite well above 70. That's why I use brent 70+ for forecast and assuming 50-60 million net profit per quarter. Having lack of experiences in understanding the Repsol's asset (tried to raise the question in AGM but not answered clearly,) I can only hope it'll contribute between 50%-100% post all cost. Hope my basic analysis makes sense.
Q4FY2021 earning is based on crude around 60+ while Q1FY2022 earning is based on crude arouned 70+, you should be able to find that in the quarterly report. Though, Q1FY2022, the drilling is affected by MCO, thus I said still depends on drilling efficiency.
From Corporate and Business Update, announced on 10 November 2021
1) Average realised oil price in the Current Quarter increased by 8.7% to USD75.3 per bbl from USD69.3 per bbl in the financial quarter ended 30 June 2021.
2)The average uptime of the North Sabah production facilities of 81%, achieved during the Current Quarter, net production was 5,311 bbl/day.
3) Average uptime and daily production rates of North Sabah for the month of October 2021 have significantly improved, with the average uptime at 91% and the average net oil production at over 6,000 bbl per day.
4) The average uptime and average daily oil equivalent production rate achieved at the Anasuria Cluster for the Current Quarter of 69% and 2,206 boe per day
5) Oil production by Anasuria Cluster was affected by unavailability of a critical component of the subsea infrastructure which malfunctioned in May 2021.
6) Engineering and procurement activities are currently on-going on a fast-track basis with execution targeted for Q3 CY2022. Until the failed component is returned to service, we anticipate that there will be an impact on CY2022 offtake volumes and OPEX per boe. We will provide guidance on the production impact once the project schedule for rectification works has been finalised.
In November 2021, the average price of one barrel of Brent crude oil was 81.54 U.S. dollars. This was a decrease of two U.S. dollars compared to the previous month and the result of concerns over rising coronavirus infections largely in Europe.
OPEC+ has forecasted an average crude oil price of 72 for Y2022 with surplus oil early 2022 (read it somewhere) when Biden pressured them to produce more. So, if one trusted OPEC+ forecast, think it's fair to guesstimate Hibiscus earning based on this number.
Marigold + Repsol will be the key driver for 2022 onwards. With Brent price holding strong >70/tong, a promising year for Hibiscus with additional reward if the oil price continue to stay high.
How much do they need to borrow to pay for Repsol asset is the key question not answered as yet. Profits can only calculate after revenue increase less payment towards loan. So how much more can they make? Still an open question. I don't think it is so straight forward as to calculate profits just based on increased in production of barrels of oil. Correct me if I am wrong. Many acquisitions are usually followed by many years of struggle to pay borrowing costs. Especially in current uncertainty period where lenders are not willing to lend to petroleum industry. When money is made available it comes with much higher interest charges which will eat into profits. So apa macam??
if the hibiscus management dropped the new shares issuance to settle payment, I suppose the recent earnings must be damn good for them to have such confidence, isn't it?
You are right they do seem confident and very smart actually as they are taking their time to complete the acquisition, They have agreed to buy the assets but have not rushed into completing the deal. If they can extend the completion to mid 2022 even better. They should continue to build financial muscle so as to lower reliance on borrowing. I like their style.
truth is, how many countries can continue the lockdown before their economy collapses? The said truth is, western countries are busy defending freedom to do whatever they want or blaming China for the pandemic while the only way out is either a further weakening virus or a well coordinated efforts by all nation.
newbie8080, if it's not a full lockdown, then, at best it'll be what's happening now, and brent crude oil will most likely traded between 65 and 75, which favors hibiscus. At 72 brent, Hibiscus is showing a 49 mil profit and 55 mil operating cash flow without Repsol deal and Repsol deal is supposed to triple Hibiscus current production. What I am keen to know is the operating cost of Repsol and how's natural gas pricing and profit margin relative to crude oil.
newbie8080, how many can understand that? Plus, the report is saying only estimated earning based on forecasted oil price, what I am interested to know is the actual performance, which is why I am asking for a Repsol comparison to current Hibiscus's during Q4FY2011 and Q1FY2012.
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Posted by Windy1974 > 2021-12-07 14:57 | Report Abuse
Let me be a technical analyst for a day. Hibiscus has broken the immediate resistance and next resistance at 0.81. If breaks 0.695 runs