HLBank Research Highlights

Oil & Gas - They Won’t be Paying You to Pump, for Now.

HLInvest
Publish date: Wed, 22 Apr 2020, 08:51 AM
HLInvest
0 12,166
This blog publishes research reports from Hong Leong Investment Bank

The lack of oil storage capacity in the USA had led the expiring May NYMEX WTI contract falling into the negative territory for the first time in recorded history. This price action is not entirely reflective of the supply – demand dynamics but rather due to settling mechanism of the WTI contract, compounded further by low open offers for the said contract. We are monitoring the situation as prices for Brent has also started to parallel WTI’s moves in the market. For now, we are keeping our oil price assumption of USD47/bbl for 2020 on the premise of some recovery in demand in 2H20 against the backdrop of the announced production cuts. MISC and Dialog remains our top picks for the sector for their resilient earnings profile.

NEWSBREAK

Negative oil prices. The lack of oil storage capacity in the USA had led the expiring May NYMEX WTI contract falling into the negative territory of c.-USD37.63/barrel from USD55.90/barrel on Friday (17th April 2020). The CME has made a special exemption in allowing crude oil prices to turn negative, so as to alleviate issues with physical delivery when the contract expired on Tuesday (21st April 2020).

HLIB’s VIEW

Divorced from fundamentals? Unlike the Brent contract which is exchanged settled, the WTI contract is physically settled. The Cushing physical delivery mechanism is a network of nearly two dozen pipelines and 15 storage terminals. According to the CME, the Cushings facility has an installed 90m barrel storage capacity. We understand that Cushings has been building inventory at lightning speed since the oil supply glut began. This price action is not entirely reflective of the supply – demand dynamics but rather due to settling mechanism of the WTI contract compounded further by low open offers for the said contract.

Impact to Malaysia O&G scene. The bottom-line is that this phenomenon spells out quite clearly that the there are no takers for oil i.e. demand, in the global markets. We’ve maintained that Dialog (BUY; TP: RM3.87) is a beneficiary of a supply glut, however it should be noted that only PITSB and Langsat terminals have some capacity for the spot market which were already operating at c. 90% capacity before the market plunged. Given that Brent has also started to parallel the moves of WTI in the market, we will continue to monitor the situation cautiously. As prices continue to head south, we reckon Petronas’s commitment to maintain its domestic capex could also be in jeopardy.

Forecast. For now, we are keeping our oil price assumption of USD47/bbl for 2020 on the premise of some recovery in demand in 2H20 against the backdrop of the announced production cuts.

Maintain NEUTRAL on sector. We maintain our BUY call on MISC for its resilient and defensive earnings profile (c.70% of earnings coming from long term time charters) and a dividend yield of 3.8%. We maintain our BUY call on Dialog, a beneficiary of global oversupply of oil as its tank terminals should see an uptick in utilisation rates.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 22 Apr 2020

Related Stocks
Market Buzz
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 6 of 6 comments

kenie

俄沙"割喉战"停火 惟油价仍难止血
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJgW-SwIlaA

2020-04-23 09:01

kenie

Oil plunges below US$12 as storage rapidly fills amid demand slump
April 21, 2020

Oil plunged the most on record to below US$12 (RM52.56) a barrel in New York as a historic demand slump fills inventories to the brim.
Futures fell as much as 40%. While the collapse reflects the most immediate May contract expiring today, it nonetheless highlights a fast-growing glut of oil, and rapidly expanding stockpiles at the American hub at Cushing, Oklahoma. Opec+’s record production cuts from next month are paling in the face of this evaporating demand.
The upcoming May contract’s expiry means traders are shifting their positions to June as they try to avoid taking deliveries of cargoes because of the lack of space to store them. That has opened up an unprecedented discount of more than US$10 between the two nearest contracts.
May WTI has fallen far lower than June ahead of expiry
There are signs of weakness everywhere. Buyers in Texas are offering as little as US$2 a barrel for some oil streams, raising the possibility that producers may soon have to pay to have crude taken off their hands. China reported its first economic contraction in decades last Friday, an indication of what is to come in other major economies that have yet to emerge from coronavirus-driven lockdowns.
“There is no limit to the downside to prices when inventories and pipelines are full,” commodities hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said on Twitter. “Negative prices are possible.”
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for May plummeted as much as 40%, the most since futures began trading in 1983, and was 35% lower at US$11.95 a barrel as of 1.13pm in London. The June contract declined 11% to US$22.37. Brent for June fell 5.7% to US$26.48 a barrel.
Crude stockpiles at Cushing — the key US storage hub — have jumped 48% to almost 55 million barrels since the end of February. The hub had working storage capacity of 76 million as of Sept 30, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Despite the weakness in headline prices, retail investors are plowing money back into oil futures. The US Oil Fund ETF saw a record US$552 million come in last Friday, taking total inflows last week to US$1.6 billion. The fund has said it would move some of its WTI holdings into the July contract, citing regulatory and market conditions.
The price collapse is reverberating across the oil industry. Crude explorers shut down 13% of the American drilling fleet last week. While that could cut production, with companies crimping their spending, it may not be enough.
“US shut-ins are gaining pace, but not fast enough to avoid storage filling to max,” said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities at Standard Chartered. — Bloomberg

2020-04-23 09:02

calvintaneng

On the flip side, notable sectors with low net gearing average include Internet and gas utility companies, and technology solution providers.


CORRECT & CHUN CHUN

OPCOM = NET CASH

NETX = NET CASH

VSTEC = NET CASH

LUXCHEM = NET CASH

ADVENTA = NET CASH

2020-04-23 19:46

alphajack

Sapura will close shop this year, mark my words

2020-04-23 19:53

foo

Covid-19 shifting consumer behaviour in technology-based solutions
CORPORATE NEWS
PETALING JAYA: The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic is causing a shift in consumer behaviour towards favour technology-based solutions for consumers.
“E-commerce, which has relatively low penetration rates in Asean, is seeing a significant leap. Singapore’s online sales jumped by 38% in February, a sharp contrast to the fall of 10% in overall retail sales, ” said Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) in its report.
“Demand for food delivery services – which has lower penetration rates ranging from 1.9% in Indonesia to 5.5% in Philippines – is rising across Asean. With the ban on dine-in services, more food merchants are signing up with delivery platforms such as GrabFood, Foodpanda and Deliveroo, ” it added.
It also notes that telehealthcare is becoming increasingly important in countries with a scarcity of doctors such as Indonesia (0.38 doctor per 1,000 people) and Thailand (0.81) where video consultations have nearly doubled.
Meanwhile the report said that in Singapore, concerns over food supply disruption had increased searches for staples such as eggs, rice and vegetables.
“On the other hand, searches for discretionary items such as footwear, formal wear and cosmetics have plunged, ” it said.
“With people staying home, cooking items and recipes, indoor sports equipment, and entertainment (such as Netflix and Nintendo) are popular searches, ” it added.
The increase in work-from-home policies have also increased demand for office-related equipment (computer monitors and office chairs) and teleconferencing platforms,Maybank IB said.

2020-04-27 09:48

kenie

FOO YOH

2020-05-20 11:48

Post a Comment