Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 11:50 | Report Abuse

[8] [STAR]: STAR MEDIA GROUP BHD (14-Apr-2020 - 20-Apr-2020) [Completed] | Total Return +23,469.00 [30.00%] over total capital of 78,230.10 | IRR: 21,474,836.47%

QQQ3, any good trades you can teach us about?

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-04-21 11:50 | Report Abuse

Hei ! new fun mgr in charge now ? the previous guy is a die-die pure value investing, never sell or trade one..

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-04-21 11:52 | Report Abuse

now so in, got pump n dump fusion style , new blood brings results !

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 11:57 | Report Abuse

Obviously, I am still big into holding unto wonderful companies. I was just proving a point and doing a trade to show i3lurker how it is done. Still waiting for his GDEX to show some results.

More importantly, it is easy to do trading when you have small capital. But you notice immediately as the sums get bigger it is harder and harder to achieve good α, and far harder to compound the gains unto bigger trading positions over time.

This is why I believe traders never show their portfolio, but sell a lot of classes and investment subscriptions.

It's incredibly hard to do, and compounding your trades into bigger and bigger positions always end up in a black swan even which catches you with the pants down.

I tried it many years ago, and I still believe trading doesn't work.

But to say only my way works and others don't is silly.

I forgot more ways of trading and buying stocks than many sifus have learned over the years.

And I PAY to attend many classes, which I do learn many things.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by FoolsGold > Apr 21, 2020 11:50 AM | Report Abuse

Hei ! new fun mgr in charge now ? the previous guy is a die-die pure value investing, never sell or trade one..

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-21 12:00 | Report Abuse

y Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > Apr 21, 2020 11:50 AM | Report Abuse

QQQ3, any good trades you can teach us about?
=========

u think everyday also can pluck a recommendation from the air meh? If like that not being responsible.


but logically, I think almost any share also can short, but no shorting allowed in Malaysia.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 12:01 | Report Abuse

Ok, I recommend you to short ql and topglove, I borrow you my shares?

>>>>>>

but logically, I think almost any share also can short, but no shorting allowed in Malaysia.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-21 12:10 | Report Abuse

too lazy for that.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-04-21 13:19 | Report Abuse

Didnt you talk quite loudly about buying genting oriental etc?

Don't see them here also.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 14:36 | Report Abuse

Can you point out where I talked loudly about buying genting and Oriental? My portfolio is exactly as per my own purchases and sales, without the xxx here and XXX there that you are so fond of using.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2020-04-21 19:40 | Report Abuse

Oriental, it's probably me. When net cash is >80% of market cap. There aren't much risks i'm not willing to bear at this price.

Posted by learning_investor > 2020-04-21 21:10 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,

I've been following you lately and was kinda impressed by your business sense and investment skills.

I had a portfolio that I've invested in for several years and I would like to humbly ask for your opinions on those companies.

1. Airasia
2. Magni
3. Liihen
4. Serbadk
5. MasterPack
6. MFCB

I do really respect you for investing in a long run on those great businesses. With your vast knowledge and experience, would you be kind to guide/advice me as a young investor on my portfolio as above?

Massive thanks.

With utmost respect,
learning_investor

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-04-21 21:13 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,

I've been following you lately and was kinda impressed by your business sense and investment skills.

I had a portfolio that I've invested in for several years and I would like to humbly ask for your opinions on those companies.

1. Bjcorp
2. harison

I do really respect you for investing in a long run on those great businesses. With your vast knowledge and experience, would you be kind to guide/advice me as a young investor on my portfolio as above?

Massive thanks.

With utmost respect,
Alex™

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 21:15 | Report Abuse

I feel like you chose all those stocks based on recommendations by sifus.

Why did you choose to buy those stocks in the first place? What is your investing timeline? How much do you earn per month? How much can you put into investing in stocks? In fact, those stocks you chose are so far apart that even I do not understand them as each are in totally different industries.

May I know, what is your profession? what do you work as? How long have you been working?

Posted by learning_investor > 2020-04-21 23:07 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,

I've started investing since 2017 and it was horrible for me for two years as my portfolio was in negative return (which is sad for me). I was following other "Sifus" before and have made some not so wise decisions in buying bad stocks like penny stocks and did a lot of tradings.

I've started to readjust my ways of investing after a long time, started to read and study the financial reports, trying to understand the real business behind the companies. I'm still learning.

I'm an engineer who earned an average salary, worked for two years after graduated and left out a portion of savings for investments.

The reasons for me to own the shares as I mentioned are simplified as written below:
Airasia: It is one of my first owned stocks since year 2018 as I loved their business way of "Now everyone can fly", which was a wonderful thing that allow a guy like me from an average family, able to travel for once.

Liihen/Magni: They are basically involved in traditional businesses such as furniture and clothing with expansion overseas. They do have a healthy financial records throughout years.

Serbadk: I like their management and and simplicity in their O&G maintenance business with proven record of company growth. However, the recent huge project obtained was a doubt to me as they do not have the record of handling such a huge project before.

MasterPack: A small company with a long track record of trying to expand in their simple packing business. The company did financially well for now whilst maintaining its expansion.

MFCB: An expanding power plant company with stable, consistent earnings.

I've been adding my portion in the companies above little by little, no matter the portfolio is green or red (well, it's in red now). It may not be a great or wonderful investment for you, but still hoping to gain and improve as I'm craving for more knowledge and advice.

Massive thanks and have a good night.

Cheers,
Learning_investor

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-22 05:35 | Report Abuse

Hi learning investor, in my opinion, we should start by being as specific as possible. Being an engineer myself, I know there are many kinds of engineer. What discipline? What industry? Sorry to push, but the point I'm trying to make is to start by teaching you the basics of how I do valuation, to scuttlebutt. Basically to start buying what makes sense.

Start with understanding companies in a deeper level, in relation to what you know. Start using contacts and friends within your circle to find out more of the business, instead of just buying stocks by reading online. Put your nose to the ground, so to speak. Invest in things that you really know about, and things that affect your life as an engineer directly.

For example, if you are a designing engineer, the two most important things that affect your life directly that you can't live without is Windows and AutoCAD. So I would start by studying replacements to Autodesk and Microsoft in your company. If it is well nigh impossible, then investing in msft and Autodesk since 2017 would have been a far brilliant choice so far.

I may be totally wrong, but you feel more like a sales engineer to me. If so, then your core competency will be in a totally different industry. But to be honest, your investment is all over the place.

AirAsia, it starts out as a good investment that you can tell everyone about, I like it too. It has a lot of cash, which they gained by offloading assets and leasing it back long term. I believe AirAsia is a good buy if it can get out of this hole, and of all it is the easiest to monitor. Your sentence is correct, but I would advice you to turn it into quantitative data, the correct concept is labour cost per seat mile, your revenue and earnings per seat mile. This is something I learnt from Warren buffet himself.

AirAsia has one of the best in industry. Now with this golden opportunity which is an all time low, I would say if you thought it was cheap when you bought it, then today is an even cheaper opportunity to buy something that will be bouyed by cheap fuel costs in the future ( the biggest factor you should always track when you study air Asia quarterly). As long as you can monitor AA cash levels, and add more when they receive a big loan or bailout from government, they will not go bankrupt. AA management, branding and cost structure is still there and better than anyone else, soon the crisis will end and they will recover. In a year or two you will not be able to buy it at 50 or 60 centre, much less 80 cents. Just buy consistently quarterly by looking at it as a company ( manage debt, get customers, train and release staff etc) and you should be fine.

Just don't dump everything in one go and go all in with margin, especially if you don't know what you are doing. Just invest slowly and add quarterly.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-22 06:03 | Report Abuse

For liihen/magni, I have a feeling you bought it because it was promoted by online sifus out there. That is the worse way to invest. Liihen does give out good consistent dividend, if you look at it like that. But if you look deeper, have you ever bought liihen furniture locally? Is it too your liking? Or like me have you never seen a shop in Malaysia and instead buy from IKEA your furniture needs?

If your answer is yes, then what are you doing buying a company you have not even seen or know about in Johor? Personally, I have studied liihen before back when KYY was promoting it, and have even visited their furniture factory in muar, Johor before I decided not to invest further. Frankly I didn't like their products, and I felt it is too old fashioned and gaudy, fit only for the US market. And apparently I became right because that is its biggest market, and it seems to sell to only a few customers. As liihen was also a 2nd generation company and didn't seem inclined to improve on their products to compete in Asia market ( despite having rubber and acasia plantation) by hiring better designers to produce signature product, I didn't move further.

https://liihenfurniture.com/product-category/bedroom-set/

Personally, here is the list of products sold and produced by liihen. Would you buy them for your home and for the price they are asking for? If the answer is no, then why invest in liihen?

First, understand the business. Then look at the financials. Then finally the easiest part, buying the share price. Don't mix up the order.

Magni for me is also similar, except that they mainly produce for Nike. Being in a far better position, and benefiting from Nike move to avoid business in sweatshops and the media backlash, magni has can compete on a different plane than just price. But being their single biggest customer, and the fact that Nike MAY one day change suppliers to go back to sweatshops in vietnsm, Bangladesh and Pakistan, I think I would rather avoid magni and invest elsewhere. For me, magni hasn't yet jumped to second gear ( like China) and moved from just an OEM manufacturer to making their own original product ( like li-ning and Anta). But I think your investment in magni is ok for the short and medium term, as long as you scuttlebutt and follow closely on their expansion and diversification plans ( as long as no DIWORSIFICATION into property development or Palm oil plantation or bitcoin trading etc)

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-22 06:39 | Report Abuse

For Serba, I totally agree. It is my smallest position that I am monitoring, and since block7 is a JV company with Karim and salleh, it may or may not be successful. I just don't know, but I am willing to monitor quarterly to see if things is believable and with investing in. One thing that does interest me is Karim selling 15 million of his warrants, and buying shares directly (250k). So far he still has 660 million shares in in Serba, so let's monitor together closely. As usual the operational strengths of Serba in middle East is quite strong and this epcc job should reflect that.

As for masterpack, I leave the management to explain further.

MASTER-PACK GROUP BERHAD (297020-W)
for the fourth quarter ended 31 December 2019

B2. Prospect 2020
2020 may see some decline in overall results compared to the year 2019 as more business challenges kick in not only for the Group but for the customers as well as businesses around the world are experiencing rapid changes. Nevertheless, management is of the opinion the group will be able to manage the impact.

I believe going to Vietnam instead of gaining market share locally can lead to both good and bad results. We will just have to see. As I have no experience whatsoever with the long term prospects of box packing industry and how you would choose one product rather then the other except by price, I personally would not invest in them. However since PPHB itself went up in share price ( via its hotel more than than for business expansion) it does appear to be a growing market and profitable for quite a long while.

Posted by Frankie > 2020-04-22 13:04 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip,
I totally agree with you on all the growth trigger on PChem.
The PIPC and their low cost feedstocks supply next door is their competitive strength.
I am pretty sure that their volume can double in 2022.
Need your advise on how to think about this.
Their net profit is = price x volume
Based on management guidance, the overcapacity in Asia Region will only clear in 2023.
Almost all product price trending downwards except Urea.
So, I guess we will have a volatile earning ahead .
So should we nibbling all the way down every quarter or buy in one shot now?
Thank you for your continuous effort to guide new investors on i3.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-22 13:41 | Report Abuse

Haha Alex,
Since Philip do not want to reply to you so please allow me to do so.

For BjCorp/Harison by one look, already know you are the follower of Holland Sifu Calvintaneng. This is the worst way to invest. Don’t be a naïve academician but learn to be street smart.

BjCorp was promoted by Calvintaneng as Berkshire Hathaway of Malaysia but the big different is TSVT collecting trash/rubbish but Warren Buffett collecting gem/treasure and of cause one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. TSVT will sell the trash to Bjcorp as treasure and pocketed the extraordinary profit. This is why TSVT is super rich and Bjcorp shareholders are super poor. You must now sell Bjcorp and buy bjland and later selling back the trash Bjland to Bjcorp as treasure and make 30% profit like what Philip’s short putt in STAR.

Harison core business is trading and distribution or what Calvintaneng put it as sure win and Defensive stock.
Hi guys,

Over the past few days JOHOR SIFU again messaged me

MORE SALIENT POINTS ON HARRISON

1) "I see, I think quite a great support at this level and will move up when it approaches dividend ex-date

2) "If anybody with Rm100 million, they will not jump into this business as margin is rather thin. They will prefer doing property business which is one off"

3) "Put it this way, nature of this type has high barriers of entry"

4) "Margin no doubt is thin like YeeLee, DKSH, but collection normally sure because if the retailers refuse to pay, they will not be able to get necessary supply"

5) "It is a good sign the management up its dividend pay out from 150 to 250 without any demand from shareholders in view of their suffering year 2014 and 2015 when company was fined by custom department (2014) and fire incident in one of its warehouse (2015). If nothing unfortunate happen, I think the company will continue its dividend payout at this amount"

6) "The amount must also commensurate with the level of share price"

7) "As it still has plenty of Cash. Above Rm80 millions Cash or even higher in the Company."

8) "Cash as standby for emergency use, in fact is excessive, it has no problem of maintaining same level of dividend of 250"


Calvin comments:

As an experienced auditor with careful scrutiny of accounts JOHOR SIFU has pointed out all these salient facts.

There is no guessing game here. Real, down-to-earth investment in Growth - Dividend based Stock like Harrison for longer term.

As he thinks HARRISON's Fair Value is Rm4.50 so as price is still below Rm4.00 it will be worth buying some if you have not done so.
23/04/2017 8:31 PM

Fast forward to today, the world is now full with Online shopping which allow consumers to direct buy goods or services from a seller over the internet using a web browser. And many well stock/organize franchise convenient stores, mini markets, groceries stores, hypermarket just around the corner. My childhood kampong sundry shops, where I can play “Tikam” and enjoy homemade ice pop already become history, a distant memory. So do you think Harison still have a bright future?

Better sell your Harison and buy ORIENT a better prospect and dividend stock.

Thank you
Hope you learn something new today.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 15:41 | Report Abuse

cigar butts........looking for the last free puff........lol........


anything also can trade....good , bad, ugly also can trade........


portfolio managers, analysts...........they buy hundreds of different shares.



but investing for success ....that is a different ball game



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNGFep6rncY&t=1s


Why the majority is always wrong

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-22 18:23 | Report Abuse

Please advise that dunno why sslee like to comment on other people's page. His thoughts and ideas are of his own, and nothing to do with me. His investment results are spectacularly uneven, and he comments like he knows Harrison business very well. In fact, I have a very good impression of Harrison's, where if you buy at these prices, you will enjoy a good dividend and increase in share price over the long term. In fact I would tell you to sell INSAS and buy Harrison to get a far better safe and dependable returns over the long term. Yes, Harrison's is probably not a growth stock, but there are many ways to make money out there, right? So why bash down Harrison's? I happen to think it is a very dependable and hard to break into business.

On top of that, we are renting our warehouse out to them to do storage, and they have been a very good and consistent payment throughout the years.

In fact, if you have to go into margin and buy and hold, Harrison's is a far better place to start at these prices today than INSAS.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-22 18:30 | Report Abuse

As for online penetration, when was the last time you buy Milo powder online? Drypers and and shampoo sent to you in lahad datu for cheap price? If the answer is no, it is simply because it is far cheaper to buy from the stores and small supermarkets than to delivery online.

The truth is, pushing 1.6 billion in product revenue a year is no joke. You need good connections, an experienced team, very good credit and long term business relationship with the big players Unilever, nestle and gab. Do you think they will simply give the principal order to any Tom dick and Harry?

Dear sslee, please don't make fun of other people's investments if you barely understand them yourself.

>>>>>>>

Harrisons has represented major multi-nationals for considerable lengths of time: Nestle has been with the Group for 84 years, GAB for 61 years, Malex for 51 years and Maerskline for 40 years, to cite a few examples. Other well known companies represented by Harrisons include SCA Hygiene (Drypers), Reckitt Benckiser (Dettol, Shieldtox), Kao (Biore, Laurier), Ngan Yin and Cocolin.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-28 05:56 | Report Abuse

Sold 500k shares of topglove at 7.32.
Bought 400k shares of ausnutria at 12.5 in hang seng, appreciation and thanks to Teoct for the introduction to a wonderful company.

I believe glove counters are being overly manipulated and have decided to take a little off the top to balance out while waiting for the quarterly results.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-28 20:30 | Report Abuse

Sold 400K Ausnutria at 15.50 and bought 400K shares of Feihe at 15.30.

Posted by jackfruit > 2020-04-28 21:18 | Report Abuse

Wah...going for China market. Power root also focus on China market now. They are setting up net work and distributor ship. If work out going to be very interesting next 3yrs. I was in Kasger Xinjing china 3yrs ago I was suprise to see my local tourist guide drinking a can of Alicafe n he told me Alicafe was popular in the region.

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-04-29 12:54 | Report Abuse

thank you Philip. Alex™ officially follow you now. Please let me know if i can mirror all your stocks. Alex aim to retire in 20 years tq.

Criteria: as long as perform better than sp500 avg (14% all time)

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-04-29 12:56 | Report Abuse

@sslee haha....tq tq...

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-04-29 13:03 | Report Abuse

do u cover usa stock?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-04-30 11:30 | Report Abuse

And then STAR went up by 50% in price, while GDEX recommendation is still stuck.

>>>>>>>

i3lurker To me, life is simple

company does not have any growth => NO GOOD

Star Media => No Growth

Star Media => No Good
15/04/2020 8:17 PM

Posted by ferrarimaker > 2020-04-30 11:33 | Report Abuse

STOR reit in US - Look interesting especially recent price got beaten to IPO level, likely to ride out of the covid storm as majority of the tenants are SME service providers that everybody needs after lock down. http://ir.storecapital.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/4553160/STORE_Capital_Provides_Corporate_Update.pdf
http://ir.storecapital.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/4553160/STOR_CEO%20Letter_2019_FINAL.pdf

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-30 11:35 | Report Abuse

reit?

all reits sure die.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-04-30 11:38 | Report Abuse

Hi alex, if you mirror my stocks I am not sure if you can make money.
1. I will definitely buy first, then write articles. And most likely, sell first then remark on my stock portfolio page. So, if you plan to do short term trades it will definitely not benefit you.
2. My holding period of stocks is usually 5 years or more(some remain unsold), although there are exceptions to the rule, such as STAR and AUSNUTRIA, which I sold after making 30% and 20% earnings.
3. I am able to do dollar averaging (up and down) every quarter to average out purchases, and dip into margin to buy when there is a significant discount to value. Are you able to withstand and entire year or two of inaction, and go crazy buying stocks during crisis?
4. I am a retiree, so I do not need to pay or upkeep many things in life. My overhead costs are low, are yours the same?

If you are unable to follow the following criteria in investing, I recommend that you simply look at my investing philosophies instead and put your own twist on investing on top of the foundation of mistakes that I made instead. Rather than giving people a fish, learning how to fish yourself is infinitely more fun and profitable. Rather than complaining when stocks go down, and cursing when it happens because you dont understand the business you invested in.

Hope you learned something.

>>>>>>>>>>>


Alex™ thank you Philip. Alex™ officially follow you now. Please let me know if i can mirror all your stocks. Alex aim to retire in 20 years tq.

Criteria: as long as perform better than sp500 avg (14% all time)
29/04/2020 12:54 PM

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-04-30 12:36 | Report Abuse

thank u Mr Philip. Based on your writing alone, I know that I am following the correct person. I listened to Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits for at least 10 times and always couldn't get what that 'scuttlebutt' phrase meant.

I have 50% portfolio allocated just for growth investing, i.e., at least 3-5 years hold according to Fisher, buying only exceptional companies rather than marginal ones.

Your writing is inspiring, deep, well-thought, and even go as far as physical visits and RM15 SSM reports. I have much to learn from you. I only ask that you continue to share your investing wisdom to make i3 community a better place.

If you look at my past comments, I might be judged as someone who is a stock punter, with casual comments here and there, and often giving opinions without substantiated facts. The thing is, being late 20s on a forum space like this, it sometimes becomes a chit-chat place to relax rather than a serious one. But inputs from you really make i3 community shine (compared to that of other half-baked, shallow writings).

Alright, it's getting long. Thank you and wish to see your next post soon.

Alex™

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-01 08:38 | Report Abuse

Personally, I have never liked the concept of reits, unless I am the one launching reits myself.

1. 90% of all earnings have to be paid out as dividends. For me this is insanity, as it does not provide any opportunity of growth without significant dilution, and it does not provide any cushion in times of crisis.
2. The valuation of reits is usually based on net-nets, with little possibility of earnings expansion of a normal stock, but with all the inherent risk of a stock. If that were the case, I would rather buy bonds or fixed deposit instead for the risk level. During debt calls, stockholders are always the last to be paid.
3. REITS are usually overpriced after IPO, and will remain the same or lose value over time. Almost every REIT that I have monitored that has paid out 10% per annum has dropped in share price value over the years, making the dividend payment inefficient.
4. Costs and depreciation increase over time, but when REITS are involved, somehow the math just doesn't work right most of the time for me.

>>>>>>>>>>


ferrarimaker STOR reit in US - Look interesting especially recent price got beaten to IPO level, likely to ride out of the covid storm as majority of the tenants are SME service providers that everybody needs after lock down. http://ir.storecapital.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/4553160/STORE_Ca...
http://ir.storecapital.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/4553160/STOR_CEO...
30/04/2020 11:33 AM

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-01 08:47 | Report Abuse

I don't cover, but I do own a stock or two. My wife owns berkshire hathaway, and I own stoneco.

>>>>>>>

Alex™ do u cover usa stock?
29/04/2020 1:03 PM

Posted by ericlooihk > 2020-05-01 08:58 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip, may I know your portfolio ... am relatively new to I3investor. Thanks

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-01 09:02 | Report Abuse

Just look to the top of the page.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-01 09:03 | Report Abuse

If you read through the transactions, you will notice almost half is on margin to buy stocks at all time lows.

Posted by David > 2020-05-01 09:11 | Report Abuse

i wish i read your articles 10 years ago. you're a blessing to this forum. keep up the good work guiding the new ones :)

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-01 09:23 | Report Abuse

Haha Alex,
I manage to sell some STAR for 50% profit still hold some. A big thanks you to Sifu Philip. I am eagerly looking forward to Philip next pump and dump article. This time must buy more.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-01 10:02 | Report Abuse

If anything, the writing of pump and dump articles (with a conscience) is a very difficult and tiring process. So far my track record is 1 per year. I may or may not even find any penny stocks worth buying over short period that has enough growth factor to rise up in price.

In any case, for the pump and dump stocks, I may not even be the one buying them, it is merely an exercise in valuation.

I repeat, if warren buffet can make a mistake with heinz and dexter shoes and airplane stocks, I can and definitely WILL make a stock pick mistake.

Just know that if that happens, I will be in the same boat as yourself.

>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 1, 2020 9:23 AM | Report Abuse

Haha Alex,
I manage to sell some STAR for 50% profit still hold some. A big thanks you to Sifu Philip. I am eagerly looking forward to Philip next pump and dump article. This time must buy more.

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-05-02 09:13 | Report Abuse

Stoneco, the Brazilian Fintech IPO that Berkshire participated. It's in my buying basket now.

I also joined GKent. The scuttlebutt due diligence by Fisher is good. However, if Fisher were still alive today, he would probably see past the LRT3 earning, and weighs GKent on its long term water meter businesses, hospitals, as well as infrastructure based order book. GKent needs to perform beyond what marginal companies couldn't with standard 10% profit off contract value and still keep a handsome bottom line for its shareholders.

As such, in as much as we can indulge ourselves with the high probability of LRT/MRT completion (and thereafter, a reasonable profit), I just hope that we don't turn ourselves into another pump-and-dump guys who run for the next stocks because the near term catalysts were exhausted (3-5 years horizon). Of course, the core water businesses will remain.

Anyway, each one to his own when it comes to investing. Fisher said that if one really finds a strong company, it's better to just stick with it as far as our investing journey permits.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-02 11:15 | Report Abuse

This is very true, which is why I am also actively monitoring. Based on my overall cost structure today of 70 cents, it is below the NTA value of GKENT of 92 cents, which is selling at a huge nett cash asset value, so I am incentivised to just wait and see, as the constant share buyback is increasing my shareholding in the company, and the dividend yield is not too bad. Since I can wait 4-5 years to see how GKENT will perform over time, I am OK sitting on my margin play here. Past history has shown that GKENT is a well performing company. Lets see how the future unfolds.

>>>>>>>>

Alex™ Stoneco, the Brazilian Fintech IPO that Berkshire participated. It's in my buying basket now.

I also joined GKent. The scuttlebutt due diligence by Fisher is good. However, if Fisher were still alive today, he would probably see past the LRT3 earning, and weighs GKent on its long term water meter businesses, hospitals, as well as infrastructure based order book. GKent needs to perform beyond what marginal companies couldn't with standard 10% profit off contract value and still keep a handsome bottom line for its shareholders.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 11:41 | Report Abuse

one can argue the 2008 crisis did not kill the Buy and Hold world.......... but will the 2020 corona crisis kill the Buy and Hold world?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-02 12:01 | Report Abuse

Why would it? If you look at the numnbers, the GDP and the world production capability is not damaged. Currently now it is just a matter of no one knowing what to do, uncertainty in proper measures of tackling covid and what the long term picture is. My nearest analogy is of a schoolboy who has fallen sick and is resting at home until he recovers (which the rate of recover is 98%). To be brutal about it, in terms of economic progress, and pardon my insensitivity to the matter, the elderly (including myself) will always be a burden to the young, because since we are no longer producing, we have to rely on the young to produce for the both of us (thus EPF etc). In the old days, statistically I would not live past 65. These days, the rate is more to 75+.

In other words, by killing us old and sick off, the future generation will have less mouths to feed and less costs to bear, and more growth will be possible (since we consume more than we produce by nature).

This is different from a World War or major sickness which kills 98% of the population. In this scenario gross domestic product will be affected, and there will be a huge effect to society and production. In this end of days case, then definitely buy and hold will no longer work. Or it will, but now buying property, and holding food and farms will be far more useful than stock trading.

Buy and hold definitely will ALWAYS work. However, it depends on your ability to see what is worth buying and holding for the long term. If the world ends, buying and holding on to that merida racing bike might be a brilliant idea, but if the world doesn't end, holding on to cash might have been the stupid mistake you will beat yourself over the head with as you reminisce about how you could have bought when the everyone is selling. I choose to buy wonderful companies when everyone in the world is selling me their stock at cheap prices.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 13:26 | Report Abuse

one can argue the 2008 crisis did not kill the Buy and Hold world.......... but will the 2020 corona crisis kill the Buy and Hold world?


that is a rhetorical question but if it is japan 1990.....or if recent rebound is dead cat bounce of 1929 to be followed by a decade long recession only to be revived by a world war.....then , u can say the corona crisis has killed the buy and hold.

I shall call it the Wallen Bufalo era where Wall Street is King of the Hill. If the virus kill the Era, what so surprising?

Is such an Era really worth preserving? Is it the right formula to tackle the next pandemic which is climate change?


the last 40 years of Wallen Bufalo Era produced all the present day ills of America ..such as unsustainable wealth/ income inequality,


me? I think every crisis, new winners and losers........and I think this crisis big enough to produce some fundamental changes.......changes such as......mainstreet take back power over Wall Street...........distribution of wealth/ income......more equality of wealth / income ( like Japan )......


We are talking about socialism with Chinese characteristics or even socialism with western characteristics.

We are talking about less jobs for Wall Street and more jobs for mainstreet and government.


We are talking about reduced corporate profits and lower PE multiples


We are talking about governments breaking up private sector monopolies and rebuilding of government monopolies and State owned enterprises that benefits jobs and the people.


We are talking about a whole new and better world.........yes...after the corona has killed off the old and useless...........


Back to more immediate concerns.........




Trump think shooting China, blaming China, new tarifs on China, sending warships into the South China Sea will get him reelected but only managed to scare the market..... Back to the drawing board for him.....


Dow down 600... Is dead cat bounce over? I would think so. The drug turns out to be a dude..... Trump hoped shooting China will get him reelected but, tension with China causes market to fall.... So this latest strategy got no legs to stand on.... Back to drawing board for him.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-02 13:32 | Report Abuse

Haha,
Qqq3 once a trader forever a trader. May I ask why you want to hold Kpower and SCIB? Trapped high kah, waiting for someone buy higher from you?

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-02 13:37 | Report Abuse

Haha Alex,
No worries about Gkent, if UMNO win GE15. Government will be business as usual with Gkent and will forced everyone to change to Gkent water meter to cut down on non revenue water.
2020 will be your best chance to collect Gkent below Philip cost.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 13:41 | Report Abuse

I am just using K Power and Scib to say there are other ways to play the market...............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 14:02 | Report Abuse

sslee.....


France is giving 400 Euro to every one who cycles to work. Bicycles and E bikes selling like hot cakes.........France is investing heavily in cycling infrastructure as a result of virus..........

If our government can copy that..then there is some thing good coming out of virus.