Posted by stockraider > 2020-03-13 10:45 | Report Abuse

Finding solace this PHILIP in topglove, when losing so big his father in law's monies...that his father in law nearly heart attack loh...!!

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > Mar 12, 2020 4:58 PM | Report Abuse

Wow u know so well?
Did you know my other major shareholdings topglove is now at 6.6? I didn't sell a single share of topglove ever.

Don't worry I still have more than 5 million of approved margin. I can get even more of I sell my share of stoneco and put it in Bursa.

So don't worry about me.

Just play with your xx stocks instead.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-13 10:53 | Report Abuse

PHILIP PORTFOLIO CANNOT WITHSTAND A FINANCIAL TSUNAMI

OF THE 6 FOUR ARE CYCLICALS

GKENT CYCLICAL CONSTRUCTION

PETCHEM CYCLICAL END CONSUMER PRODUCTS (DISCRETIONARY)

YINSON & SERBA ARE CYCLICAL OIL JUST LIKE CYCLICAL STEEL, CPO OR REAL ESTATE OR AUTO

THESE ABOVE 4 WILL BE HIT VERY HARD AS CONSUMER DEMAND EVAPORATES IN RECESSION

https://www.history.com/news/life-for-the-average-family-during-the-great-depression


QL ALSO CONSUMER NECESSITY BUT PRICE BLOATED (ITS PRODUCT EXPENSIVE) IN BAD TIMES PEOPLE BUY THE VERY BASIC AND CHEAPEST

TOPGLOVE NOW IN VOGUE DUE TO CORONAVIRUS (WILL COME DOWN WHEN VIRUS OVER)

SO 3iii SHOULD COME HERE AND CALL "GRUESOME"

PREPARE TO LOSE RM20 MILLIONS

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-13 11:05 | Report Abuse

Sorry my stocks are still up from last year in total. Your netx back down to 5 centre, your 50k SGD down the drain. What else is down the drain?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-13 11:32 | Report Abuse

Philip portfolio lost Rm4.3 millions just today

Really horrible

Posted by Tom > 2020-03-13 11:33 | Report Abuse

All laosai.... lol

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-13 11:33 | Report Abuse

The saddest thing is both Asleep and bro Jon Choivo led astray by see fool philip

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-13 11:33 | Report Abuse

Asleep = SSLee

Posted by Tom > 2020-03-13 11:34 | Report Abuse

Next laosai stock will be deeply overvalued QL....

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-13 22:06 | Report Abuse

Wow Calvin tan eng with NO portfolio is talking?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-16 11:30 | Report Abuse

Now 2.3% fatality rate?

Rm10 millions net loss

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-16 12:18 | Report Abuse

All turn red

Next will be Ql

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-16 17:49 | Report Abuse

Today lost another Rm2.7 millions ?

At this rate of losing margin calls coming

Posted by i3Value > 2020-03-16 21:12 | Report Abuse

Really many very free people keep track each other portfolio. Compare sausage so important?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-16 22:01 | Report Abuse

i3Value

Yes

This one very proud to show off

So the record showing Rm12 million losses by today

At the very bottom of the crash might lose up to Rm50 millions

Posted by tlchiat > 2020-03-17 00:57 | Report Abuse

Phillip, i like your comments in the forum. Sounds like you do your due diligence. I am in the upstream business, been with Shell the past 10-15 years. Can you kindly share why you are keen on Yinson and PCHEM?

Posted by tlchiat > 2020-03-17 00:58 | Report Abuse

I am a beginner with no experience. You had an interesting comment on LCTITAN, saying PCHEM production prices will be equivalent to LCTITAN's raw material costs. Is there an article i can read to understand the Petrochemical business?

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-17 06:30 | Report Abuse

Hi tlchiat, which part of Shell are you with? Offshore or onshore? Most of my friends which have also joined me in recent retirement are from the onshore team in Sabah. Maybe I will know you if you are within the 50+ age group.

For yinson the long term prospects as an FPSO is simpler and clearer than the other FPSO such as Armada and sapura.

As you probably know in upstream business,

There is,

Engineering & construction,
Drilling and completion,
Exploration & production,
Operation & maintenance

Back in the early years of 21st century when price per barrel hit 90+, doing exploration and drilling was a very very profitable thing so do. Companies like sapura and Armada structured very bad deals due to greed, where they had joint ventures with oil field concessionaires and countries to do PROFIT SHARING on activities. As you now know, this was a very bad idea because as the share price drops, their profit margin drops. I believe their BREAK EVEN costs were something like 50 or 60 per barrel for deep water production. So as of today with advances in fracking and oversupply the price per barrel had been dropping by a very huge amount, causing huge long term losses and impairment with those companies. In the long run the price per barrel will surely recover, but like WorldCom back in the day planting undersea telecommunication cables everywhere, the one to profit in the next cycle will not be them.

Contrast that to yinson, their business model is very straightforward. FPSO charter per man day fixed contract only. Also an initial down payment to pay for ship conversion, and a fixed sum penalty in case of early termination of contract.

Very simple very straightforward. Their specialists are from Europe ( they bought over entire European company to start the FPSO business a long time ago), and they don't have to worry about the price of oil per barrel, as their contract can be bareboat charter or inclusive of operations & management.

Simple, clean and easily understandable. While Armada and sapura are hit by lawsuits ( due to not understanding what they were caught in, blinded by greed and just expanding for expansion sake), every YINSON deal is like the bus company which they started out as. Although in this case the passengers pay to build the bus, then pays a daily rental, and send in their own mechanics, conductors and driver to run the bus. Yinson jobscope is just to provide the bus. Slightly simplified, but you get the gist of it.

I like simple things that I can understand.

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-17 06:46 | Report Abuse

Lctitan product line and applications
https://www.lottechem.my/products/productGuide_view.asp?code=C225


Pchem products line and applications
http://www.petronaschemicals.com.my/Products/Pages/AllProducts.aspx
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petchem%E2%80%99s-isononanol-plant-be-stream-2hfy19
Don't forget the isononanol plant that will become online in pangerang, which will generate huge income for PCHEM as it is the only plant in the region

Articles of pchem versus lctitan

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/nothing-special-expected-2q18-petrochemical-results
https://themalaysianreserve.com/2020/02/05/lotte-chemical-unfavourable-on-oversupply-weak-demand/
https://www.thesundaily.my/archive/lotte-chemical-titan-not-big-threat-us-petronas-chemicals-FTARCH441839

>>>>>>>>>>

lchiat I am a beginner with no experience. You had an interesting comment on LCTITAN, saying PCHEM production prices will be equivalent to LCTITAN's raw material costs. Is there an article i can read to understand the Petrochemical business?
17/03/2020 12:58 AM

Posted by Sslee > 2020-03-17 07:02 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Dow jones drop 2997 points. Big discount day sales what is your advice.
Thank you

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-03-17 07:07 | Report Abuse

Even Fed is powerless to stop this health scare triggered financial tsunami..

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-17 07:19 | Report Abuse

The thing you have to understand about petrochemical business is that it touches almost every facet of modern life, from lipstick to fertilizer to cosmetics to construction to aromatics to medicine. It is the bluest of blue oceans.

However, to get into this market you need a lot of money, a lot of capex and a lot of supply.

Lctitan(or honam chemicals back in 1989) original idea was to supply the Korea market which is mo drive there profitable, so doing production in cheaper Malaysia, lower capex, low salary, good source of naphta from petronas would have been a good option back in the day. Petronas was eager to sell raw materials, and the market was green.

In 1998 ten years later, petronas saw the value of petrochemicals and started their own. Now you have to understand, even though there is a market price for naphta, the transportation and m anagement cost of this extremely volatile and flammable raw material varies from source to source.

The biggest supplier of naphta in the world is obviously China followed by South Korea. petronas saw a huge opportunity and funded the biggest petroleum complex in the region.

The majority of production from petronas local refineries into feedstocks is sold to petchem which is produced efficiently due to economies of scale and sold to the fastest growing region in the world, APAC market ( Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines), where a huge concentration of people are living in a single region and becoming more and more wealthy.

So local supply + huge cash position + huge capex + big brother = historical 25% profit, versus lctitan historical np below 10% as they expert back to Korea n and other local regions and compete heavily with China.

In essence, it is similar to the Saudi versus Russia oil problem. Russia onshore (usd40 per barrel) & offshore (usd55 per barrel) versus Saudi huge oilfield under desert sand deposits ( usd5 per barrel) production costs.

Saudi is just trying to drive Russia to capitulation so they sell oil at exactly the price needed to make Russian operations unprofitable. Saudi is still highly profitable.

Pchem current plan now is take up entire market production ( at razor margins) to kill the cash strapped, loss making competitors, drive them out of business and raise prices when the market stabilizes.

The long term prospects of PCHEM are far more attractive.

Obviously, the share price of lctitan is cheap. However, they are cheap for a reason. As market share for pchem rises, the long term revenue and earnings of lctitan will definitely decrease.

And when PIC opens in lctitan backyard with their 3.3 mpta yearly production ( lctitan 2.4), you can be assured if PCHEM sells 15% cheaper than lctitan, they will still make a 5% profit and drive lctitan out of business.

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-17 07:26 | Report Abuse

Buy wonderful companies after quarterly reports confirm no change in business fundamentals.

>>>>

Sslee Dear Philip,
Dow jones drop 2997 points. Big discount day sales what is your advice.
Thank you
17/03/2020 7:02 AM

Posted by Sslee > 2020-03-17 07:50 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Can you share some list of wonderful companies for my KIV list. I can spare 50K per month from my salarly and take out my FD when mature to slowly pick up those wonderful companies. By the way I am still confident with Pchem.
Thank you

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-03-17 08:26 | Report Abuse

ss....so u are no longer a cult member?


previously u wanted OTB to make u rich, very rich...............

Posted by jackfruit > 2020-03-17 09:00 | Report Abuse

Buy Lay Hong as eggs run out of stock in every conner of the supermarket right now.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-17 09:20 | Report Abuse

The curse of Philip on himself

A whopping Rm16 million Wipeout

On the way to Rm50 milions total loss

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-17 09:56 | Report Abuse

I believe god will help out by the end of the year because I dont use Jesus name to sell stocks or collect money from believers.

>>>>>>>>

calvintaneng The curse of Philip on himself

A whopping Rm16 million Wipeout

On the way to Rm50 milions total loss
17/03/2020 9:20 AM

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-03-17 10:02 | Report Abuse

luckily got Chia of QL to help u out...not god

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-17 10:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-17 10:08 | Report Abuse

Companies which I hold and buy I believe are all wonderful companies with good long term prospects. If you buy those, you can believe than you and me will both be in the same boat and when I sell I will let everyone know when and how much I sell it at. That is the only thing that can be done. If most money lose together, if make together.

The possible and currently still monitor is:

GKENT my second smallest investment ( monitoring quarterly, but buybacks and dividends give me confidence)
Serbadk my smallest investment ( monitoring quarterly, but with Qatar pool production cost of usd5, and considering majority of works in Qatar and middle East countries, I am still comfortable).

QL
TOPGLOV
YINSON
STONECO

This are stocks I hold for long term

Other companies which I consider to be wonderful in the long run which you can buy at blood on the floor prices, but were too expensive for me to consider before:

Maybank
Public Bank
Hong Leong Bank
Genting
Hap Seng
Dialog
Hartalega

Semi wonderful
Magni
VS
SKpres
Notion




>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Mar 17, 2020 7:50 AM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Can you share some list of wonderful companies for my KIV list. I can spare 50K per month from my salarly and take out my FD when mature to slowly pick up those wonderful companies. By the way I am still confident with Pchem.
Thank you
17/03/2020 9:54 AM

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-17 10:11 | Report Abuse

Wonderful so what

1n 1997/8

Nestle crashed to Rm11.80

Public Bank crashed to 80 sen

Maybank crashed to Rm2.50

Philip knows nothing about Market history

Posted by Sslee > 2020-03-17 10:33 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Noted with thanks

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-17 11:14 | Report Abuse

Calvin tan go sell Jesus elsewhere. I lost all respect for you ever since you started using Jesus name to peddle your investment stocks. If you want to be here then be truthful and tell us all the stocks you are holding. Until then I believe this is your 2019 results.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

How much did YOU lose?

And 2-3 years from now how much will you gain?

If you only have 50k sgd to bet on NETX after so many years scamming the market. Then I really pity your investment skills.

In either case, I have given up on you. You have nothing to teach and nothing to learn from.

And worse, you peddle God's name to stock holding forum.

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-17 12:59 | Report Abuse

In either case I wish no one harm, Calvin tan least of all. I hope everyone stays safe and healthy. Malaysia has declared lockdown and all malls have stop operation in Sabah except for critical supermarkets, all manufacturers and factories have closed for the week and all staff are in emergency mode.

I hope everyone stays safe and healthy financially and emotionally and physically.

God bless everyone.

I myself have also pulled the plug and started to borrow money to a few friends whose small businesses have been affected by this once in a lifetime crisis.

I have recently used my plantation holding partnership company to take stimulus loan from the government via agroank at a good special rate of 3.75% for 10 years. We have taken around 15 million in this soft loan. If your company or business has any sort term working capital or cash flow problems that you need resolution with over this trying period you may write to me @Philip Chong and send to this email rylakk2016@gmail.com.

We may not be able to help everyone, and I will use the same measure of business model viability to understand your business needs and if we would actually be helping you by lending money. I may not be able to reply everyone either as I no longer have a private secretary and admin due to being recently retired and we already have many friends and business associates underwater for the next 6 months due to this issue.

But I can promise you that I will do my part, and will only charge 4.25% interest rates ( the interest parts for stamping fee agreement, lawyer payments etc. Our loan will be a soft loan for a period of 1 year to maximum 2 years ( with interim yearly payments).

If you are running a viable business model, do not hesitate to write in.

This is a stimulus program from the government in either case that has been given out by banks to borrow to entrepreneurs. Problem is many companies will not have the credit or assets to get the approval risk to do these loans.

It is the same problem I faced when I was young. Those who need to borrow money can't get it. And those who no longer need money can borrow as much as they want.

I will be more stringent than many bank officers in understanding your problem. But at the same time, I will not for collateral or your spleen.

If you do email, please provide:

1. How much you need.
2. What is it for.
3. Your company profile and ssm audited figures for the last 3 years.
4. A sample description of your company, your competitors and your competitive advantage.
5. How long do you need the loan for.

Cheers and hopefully we can all pull through this together.

God bless.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-03-17 13:06 | Report Abuse

Good job!!

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-03-17 13:22 | Report Abuse

philips doing internet lending............big business in China

Posted by Philip ( Write To Me If You Need Help) > 2020-03-17 13:31 | Report Abuse

Not doing business with this, just a pass through loan. As originally we were was planning to use it for expansion. But with the current price of oil so low, it would not do any good to invest in growing the plantation, as renewable fuels is not competitive at this moment. I was planning to buy more stocks, but sometimes some things are more important than money.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-03-17 15:46 | Report Abuse

Well, thanks for doing something like that.

I'm sure for many it will be like water in a dessert.

All the best.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-03-17 15:57 | Report Abuse

I'm wondering,

Why do you consider Hartalega to be more expensive than TopGlove?

Posted by Philip ( Write To Me If You Need Help) > 2020-03-17 17:15 | Report Abuse

Topglove has a bigger market and more revenue. It's acquisition of aspion has shown that it is serious in tackling hartalega on the nitrile market, and the strategy of and cost of the general gloves has put it out of reach for hartalega to compete.

Meaning, topglove can attack harta, while harta cannot attack topglove.

Who do you think has the bigger future post aspion?

Posted by tlchiat > 2020-03-17 20:02 | Report Abuse

Philip. Thank you for your guidance. Will spend a few hours to go through your notes. Especially on the Petrochemical business. A lot of information for an upstream guy. I am 40 by the way. Working in offshore, onshore and subsea.

Posted by Philip ( Write To Me If You Need Help) > 2020-03-18 06:42 | Report Abuse

Doubled exposure in gkent and serbadk as business fundamentals so far has not changed. Lrt3 project has not been cancelled and Qatar is still as rich as ever. Probably my entire purchase this quarter while waiting for results.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-18 10:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Philip ( Write To Me If You Need Help) > 2020-03-18 11:05 | Report Abuse

God bless you Calvin. Even though you use HIS name to sell stocks.

As I said. Now is not the time to make money from others misfortune. Now is the time we stand by our fellow Malaysians and help each other out during this time of need.

I am not making a single cent from this loan. My loan is 3.75. the loan rate of 4.25 and the difference of 0.5% is just to pay for legal expenses and stamping fees.

This loan is not for you. It is for those who have to look at getting a loan from private loan sharks who borrow money at 1% per month and above.

For you filled with hate and bitterness and insanity sure to losing money during this difficult period, all I can say is this:

You will notice I have stopped commenting on your NETX or any of your posts as I feel you are a waste of effort and a pest that will continue to cheat young investors. The difference is this time you have called wolf far too many times and everyone in the forum has wised up to your antics and assumptions.

I will no longer reply to your comments or messages or postings.

Good luck and God bless.

Let's all stand together and help each other out of this period instead of pointing fingers and blaming and insulting.

Let's leave the Singaporean to his devices and help Malaysians out.

Posted by Philip ( Write To Me If You Need Help) > 2020-03-18 11:11 | Report Abuse

One of the many signs of a wonderful company of a wonderful company is a high cash level and the ability to buyback huge amount of shares during crisis periods.

Look to companies that have enough cash to ride out the crisis and at the same time deploy can to buy back shares.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-03-18 11:40 | Report Abuse

stock market.....................now all about how bad the virus , how bad the recession..............

Dr Campbell ( search u tube)..........is very good...so, how bad will this virus go?

Dr Campbell, the one I follow think up to 50% of western population will get the virus and will last until vaccine is available.......................based on China experience, this thing will peak in 1-2 months....................what will it be?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-03-18 11:54 | Report Abuse

from neglect to now serious actions by western governments.what is the trajectory.?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-03-18 12:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-03-18 15:31 | Report Abuse

calvin....................4 billion shares? do what?


u want they will print u another 4 billion shares....................

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-03-18 15:48 | Report Abuse

calvin...what is a share if no dividend and no share buy backs? Its called free money....................