Posted by Philip ( yinson 700 buses in trouble) > 2020-04-03 01:13 | Report Abuse

This will be the most interesting crisis I have gone through yet. Serba dinamik performance is such an interesting climb I don't expect my 30% gains to last for long.

Posted by sich > 2020-04-04 08:11 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip, STNE is now 17.82. Given the Covid-19 situation in Brazil your thesis for STNE still remains ? Do you plan to average down ?

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-04 10:54 | Report Abuse

This is a simple accounting mistake which I couldn't edit or delete once key in. ( Funny how that works to stop fake entries. My total selling was 650k shares of QL at 8.6 to invest in serbadk and others. But as I keyed in wrongly ( I put in 200k shares in ql instead of serbadk), I had to adjust the amount so it reflected properly.

>>>>>>>>>

By the way I am curious what is your thinking process when you did buy and sell QL at RM 8.60 on 17th Feb 2020?
Sell QL: -700,000 at RM 8.60
Sell QL: -150,000 at RM8.60
Buy QL: +200,000 at RM8.60

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-05 15:40 | Report Abuse

A good read is the 1990 memo. Very simple and very important.
It is more important to reduce risk and consistent results. Meaning the best long term portfolios are those with low lows during crisis and low highs when speculation is at its highest.

If your portfolio has very high volatility, are you really growing your portfolio? Once you add your long term results, how does it look like?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-07 05:57 | Report Abuse

Hi sich, for stne we have decided a wait and see approach as stne has not dropped to a level that would warrant dipping into margin to buy more. I'm currently content with the 200k shares that we currently hold, and will use any dividends if raised to reinvest. As our initial price was around the usd20 range, I think we are comfortable as is.

>>>>>>>>


sich Hi Philip, STNE is now 17.82. Given the Covid-19 situation in Brazil your thesis for STNE still remains ? Do you plan to average down ?
04/04/2020 8:11

Posted by RKT999 > 2020-04-07 06:56 | Report Abuse

Stoneco core biz is very similar to square inc, albeit diff in the strategies as US and Brazil is structurally diff market.
The strong growth in the co does not come without challenges and it is getting more intense as they go.

Incumbents are fighting back and eating into stoneco's main biz - prepayment market.
that is why stoneco is moving into credit market as fast as they can.
either you innovate fast or you are being out-innovated.
on another front, certainly the covid would affect the delinquency rates.

not to say stoneco is not a great investment but one has to understand what factors are at play.

Posted by RKT999 > 2020-04-07 06:58 | Report Abuse

I do agree with you Philip, enticing at this level.
I believe soon enough, stoneco would "copy" square inc's game plan for cash app.

Posted by vllyk > 2020-04-07 22:33 | Report Abuse

hi i am new and i am very impressed at how much money you are investing in stocks. May i know why do you not invest in banking counters like CIMB or Maybank? or electronics counters since we are moving into the digital era?

How many stocks should one have in his/her portfolio and should we focus on dividend paying stocks all the time?

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-08 08:00 | Report Abuse

The simple answer is I don't know how to value the long term returns of banks like CIMB and Maybank and electronic? Counters. As I prefer to to buy stocks in industries I know well and businesses I know well and within my area of competence.

Instead, if your area of competence is in banks or electronic counters then you should study that instead ( and share with me your findings haha).

For me, I have had only 4 stocks in my portfolio for the last 9 years, and added 2 last year and 1 this year, after carefully following and researching for 1 year. As well stoneco in NYSE.

Firstly, my advice is not to follow dividend paying only stocks, because you will invariably be led to REITS, which is a horrible idea in Malaysia. My advice is to follow companies which consistently grow their revenues and earnings every year while controlling debt, liabilities and shareholder dilution to a minimum. You can earn money in many ways other than dividends: via share buybacks, increase of share price due to p/e expansion etc. Note that warrants and share splits do not reward shareholders ( I consider them shareholder dilution).

My recommendation is to follow Warren buffet advice, treat buying stocks the same way you are buying a house, getting married or buying a car. If you can only buy 10 cars in your entire lifetime, it makes sense to be very very careful in choosing your cars. For me buying stocks is the same way.

If you are interested in a stock you should spend at least a month understanding a company before even thinking of buying it ( and removing all confirmation bias). You need to be brutally honest in understanding the long term prospects of the company you are researching in. Be cautious and assume you are presenting a report to the sultan of Saudi Arabia, who could behead you if you got it wrong.

There are no penalties or fines if you don't buy stocks. No bad decisions if you don't buy, only if you put your money in. Remember that. Ignore all those FOMO thoughts, and concentrate on never losing money.

So firstly you should read all 10 years annual reports to grasp:
1. What the management has done to grow the business
2. How much assets was grown during the period.
3. How much debt was generated during the period.
4. How much revenue and earnings was generated during the period.
5. Which customers and where those earnings came from and where it will come from 5 years from now.
6. How volatile/ stable is the earnings growth, how much bad years
7. How the management is acting on shareholder behalf.

If you have done all of this properly, reading the quarterly reports and annual reports, then you need to understand the competition

1. Read the industry journals to find the most efficient/fastest growing companies in industry.
2. How is the company you are researching about performing versus competition.
3. What are the market reports on the total addressable market of the industry.
4. who is the market leaders? HOW far apart are they versus competition.

Now once you have done this, then you should REPEAT and read the 10 years annual reports and quarterly reports of the COMPETITION stocks to see how they are performing versus the stock you are thinking of buying.

Once you have done all of this and you still think the company, you can start investing. But never put everything into the stock immediately. Buy a substantial amount that you can afford to lose, then build your position every quarter after the results are out and only if the performance is still within your expectations.

This is a much better way long term of participating in the growth of a well performing company.

Avoid IPOs, avoid airline stocks, avoid highly leveraged companies, avoid companies that you don't understand, avoid complex sounding companies with no earnings or revenues. Avoid startups.

Good luck.

And most important, avoid internet sifu trying to sell you subscription classes, books, stock tips and recommendations. Even myself. The price and time that I bought the stocks I have now is definitely different from the time that you will buy them so obviously any drop in share price I will still be able to sleep well at night because I am still heavily in the green, while you may be staring at the red.

Try to start a trackable portfolio of your stock purchases and sell so you can be honest in your performance and the opportunity costs you lost while holding your stocks. Learn to improve your stock picking and make the wrong decisions early( unlike me), don't repeat the same mistakes twice,

Good luck.


>>>>>>>>>

vllyk hi i am new and i am very impressed at how much money you are investing in stocks. May i know why do you not invest in banking counters like CIMB or Maybank? or electronics counters since we are moving into the digital era?

How many stocks should one have in his/her portfolio and should we focus on dividend paying stocks all the time?
07/04/2020 10:33 PM

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2020-04-08 09:05 | Report Abuse

---> @Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > Apr 8, 2020 8:00 AM <---
...
One of the best posts (in the form of comment) this week. Conservative approach which requires doing research on the investor's (NOT trader's) part. This one is especially important, and which I'd stick to with financial markets:

---> But never put everything into the stock immediately. Buy a substantial amount that you can afford to lose, then build your position every quarter after the results are out and only if the performance is still within your expectations. <---

There will be times when one feels very confident of some company. However, it's prudent to buy in batches, at different times. I've managed to avoid getting into big trouble by sticking to this method.

"But what if the counter goes up after we buy the first batch?" Hey, that's a GOOD thing! That first batch is in the plus. Make a second buy to average the price.

By the way, don't forget to sell when a counter has reached a certain price! Many people become too attached, so proud of their successful pick, and refuse to sell to lock in the profit. Only to later regret after the price spiralled down to a level where the profit is significantly reduced.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2020-04-08 19:22 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip, mind sharing why you choose Serba over Dialog?

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-08 21:37 | Report Abuse

Hi Fabien, do you mind sharing why you chose dialog over Serba? I'm also interested to know your opinion.

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-08 21:48 | Report Abuse

Apologies if I took your comment from email, but I thought this was an excellent question which requires some thoughts.

Most traders and new investors I know usually buy a stock based on ticker prices.

So when the ticker price goes up or down beyond their assumptions they usually panic and become very worried. A short term trade becomes a mid term hold becomes a long term "investment".

This is one of the worse things to do when stockpicking, because when you buy stocks based on ticker prices, you can never know if you are buying a stock cheaper than its intrinsic value, or chasing an uptrend stock into an accident, or catching a falling knife.

Knowing when to buy a stock is just half the game.
Knowing when to rationally sell a stock, and when to average down is another.

It is always a huge conundrum.

A few ways I go about it is to ignore the share price first and look to three business:

1. What is the debt of the company and possibility of bankruptcy.
2. Is the revenue/earnings downturn a permanent issue or a short term obstacle ( trade war, oil war, covid19 war)
3. How is the company doing in comparison to its peers

For me I prefer to purchase consistently growing companies that don't rise too high during good times, but also lose little during bad times. That way I can sleep well at night without much to worry about. And if a good discount day comes my way, I will be ready with a cash pile to buy in.

>>>>>>>>

When i added on for MRCB and GKENT it was making a profit but not up to my expectation to sell so i held on but then it went down further.I have no choice now but to hold on to them. I was wondering based on your experience shall i cut loss and invest on other counters but which at this current situation i supposed everything is uncertain.

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-08 21:58 | Report Abuse

For me a few things come to mind usually:

1. Growth of revenue and earnings: dialog hasn't grown much in revenue but their earnings have gone up a lot. I expect their profit margins to come down substantially as Aramco comes into the picture, PDT comes online and PIC in Johor starts to have much more competition in storage prices.
2. Total addressable market. Serba is performing in many places around the world, and I believe if their revenues and earnings are accurate, they will continue to grow at a phenomenal pace compared to dialog.

On the other hand there is a chance that Serba revenue and earnings are fabricated, but the consistency in dividends and earnings growth compared to peers seems to give me hope. I will continue to monitor this stock to understand more.


>>>>>>>>

Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" Hi Philip, mind sharing why you choose Serba over Dialog?
08/04/2020 7:22 PM

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-09 07:45 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Please allow me to have a few words with @vllyk:

1. Philip is not completely honest on his take on banking counters as he and his family members used to hold Public Bank but he is smart to sold off Public Bank near it peak and bought Pchem near it peak too.

2. Please also do not confine yourself in Philip so called your circle of competency because competency is acquired not inborn.

3. Yes dividend is important:`
Posted by kcchongnz > May 19, 2019 11:33 AM | Report Abuse
In investing, there is no one size fits all.
Buyback shares when the share price is undervalued is definitely good for the company and the shareholders. However, not all managers buy back shares because they are undervalued, but rather for their interest such as jacking up share price because they own a lot of shares or share options. I prefer management buys more shares with their own money.
The very basic of the capital market is investors provide capital for company to do business, and the investors got return in term of regular dividends, from the free cash flows of the company, not from borrowings.
Dividend is never a bad thing in investing. It is a testimonial that the company is doing well, that the management is willing to share the profits of the company, a positive signal. Dividend is hard cash which investors can use it as they like; to buy more shares of the company, or other more promising companies, or spend it to enjoy their fruits.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-09 07:46 | Report Abuse

4. Please read the book by KCCHONG or KCChong blogs to avoid the pitfalls by following tips from internet Sifu and understand the basic of financial report and on leverage.

5. Invest only on money you can afford to loss and please no “Sailang” or margin finance until you are street smart.

6. Philip is very lucky to make his fortune with PE50 Company QL but he made his own luck and he too knew when to sell QL at RM 8.60. (Top 30 QL shareholders hold 72.08% with EPF holding 7 %)

7. I do not think Philip Study Serba Dinamik 10 year records as I believe Serba Dinamik take on too much debt, expand too fast and too dependent on Qatar. Philip wrote, “Qatar is their biggest revenue and profit center. They are a unique country, very rich but supporting both Iran and USA (terrorism and also the biggest US airbase this side of the world).
The interesting part has been that ever since the blockade and embargo ( but Saudi still says they will send aid to Qatar if needed), of Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi etc a lot of contractors and suppliers have dropped (forced) to leave the country since 2014. Leaving the o&m space pretty much open to Serba dinamik to step in at high margins and huge demand”
Is this sustainable? Now Seba Dinamik is taking SCIB and Kpower to Qatar, in politics there are no permanent friends or permanent enemy’s just permanent interest. Will Qatar turn up to be Holland? How about Mainland China Contractors and suppliers?

Thank you

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-09 07:55 | Report Abuse

P/S: As valuation on banking sector you can read the below blog
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2017-12-31-story-h1452396396-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_The_valuation_of_financial_institutions_And_why_Coldeye.jsp

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 08:11 | Report Abuse

Very interesting, what makes you think PCHEM is at its peak? I firmly believe that it was cheap when I bought it at 8.33. and today at 4.09 it was even more cheap, as shown by my frequency of purchases. I sold public Bank exactly because I could no longer see good long term growth coming from public Bank and other banking counters in Malaysia. Yes during the covid-19 crisis, everything is cheap.

But even though everything is cheap, not everything is a long term buy. And if you can only choose one stock, better to put it into a stock that you know well instead.

>>>>>>>>>
1. Philip is not completely honest on his take on banking counters as he and his family members used to hold Public Bank but he is smart to sold off Public Bank near it peak and bought Pchem near it peak too.

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 08:30 | Report Abuse

I would personally not use this " investor" as a guide because despite his beautiful prose, he is both right and wrong in his investments, which in reality means his analysis means absolutely nothing. How do I know his article is bullshit?

Very simple, compare his results versus his article. He writes this be that and has opinions in this and that, but in 2017 he says that public Bank is overvalued, and his picks as you now know were rcecap (30% of his portfolio) and affin bank (2% of his portfolio).

What were his results versus public Bank that I held within the same period ( 2012-2019)?

You can check it yourself. Even as his comments were correct on mbsb, he was remarkably wrong in buying affin and rcecap.

So, what good are academics with no results doing in giving you advice?

In short, it is similar to your father telling you vitamin c can cure covid19 based on some Facebook posts he read.

Unsubstantiated, not results based and with no history of accuracy.

I will recommend you do your own due diligence instead.

All I can say is the valuation metrics cold eye is using is wrong, icon8888 is using is wrong, Jonathan choi is wrong and sslee is wrong.

Let's start from there.

I myself do not have a clear understanding of the banking industry in Malaysia for the next 5-10 years which is why I sold pb. Lucky or not depends on you, although I am pretty sure I do 10x the amount of research and thinking on the future prospects than sslee when I go into a stock.

I have a feeling sslee only knows 2 of the CEOs of all the stocks that he buys ( without checking Google) and no Vincent tan is not the CEO of bjland.

Details which I consider critically important on my concept of valuation, rather than just numeric accounting figures.

>>>>>>>

Sslee P/S: As valuation on banking sector you can read the below blog
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2017-12-31-story-h14...
09/04/2020 7:55 AN

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 08:44 | Report Abuse

I think sslee doesn't even look at quarterly reports. Refer to page 13 please for juicy details.

Out of their 1.36 billion in revenue in latest quarter, 395 million comes from one source and 427 million comes from another source. Guess how much is Qatar contribution to their total revenue? Is this amount going to grow or reduce in the next few years? ( Guess: look at total orderbook)

Now go back to inari, who is their biggest revenue source? What percentage is that compared to their second largest source? Now, big hint: is Apple guiding towards a growth in smartphone orders or reduction in orders?

So, please do your due diligence and study deeper.

FYI, I have a unlucky feeling that INSAS will show a huge losing quarter in the next quarterly report due revision of fair value loss on assets ( stocks), reduction in value of inari sold at low prices, lower dividend yields ( even cancellation of dividend for to the need to conserve cash). Will I be lucky or origin come to fruition?

In any case better to be lucky than good.

>>>>>>>>

7. I do not think Philip Study Serba Dinamik 10 year records as I believe Serba Dinamik take on too much debt, expand too fast and too dependent on Qatar.

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 09:09 | Report Abuse

But sslee does have a point: debt is a very important factor in business growth. However just like cholesterol, there is always good and bad. As an investor we need to be very clear and understand the difference between the two.

Firstly, how much is the total debt generation versus the growth in revenue and earnings. This is a very important fact to understand. Debt is good if you get a big jump in revenue and earnings for each dollar of debt generated ( meaning a big market and ready to be tapped). Debt is bad when you actually get less revenue and earnings for every dollar put in ( take for example London biscuit, where increased debt turned into increase receivables that turned into late payments that turned into bad debt).

Secondly, is the debt serviceable with free cash flow? If the debt interest payments are within expectations, and job cancellations are still below threshold, and working capital is still available say the end of the day, then you need to understand how many hits the company can take before serious problems occur.

Thirdly, is the market shrinking or growing? Are the profit margins enough to cover debt risk? Who are their competitors and what levels of margins are they working with? There is no such thing as expanding too fast or taking on too much debt. What is most important is always the ratio of debt taken versus the orderbook and cashflow.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-09 09:45 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
I only knows the CEO of companies which I attended the Company AGM: INSAS, TAE, CSCTEEL, HRC, JAKS and Hengyuan. As of BJland I did not attend the AGM. Bjland is just my trading bet (VGO Bet) with Icon8888 EWINT. But I did write complaint letter to SC and Bursa on Bjland:
With respect I refer to Bursa previous reply to my complaint:
Aduan Bursa <aduan@bursamalaysia.com>
To:Soon Sheng Lee
Fri, Jun 28, 2019 at 9:17 AM
Dear Sir,

In line with our Company’s policy, we are unable to reveal any details of the assessment conducted by Bursa Securities in considering a lower public shareholdings spread. Nevertheless, any application submitted to Bursa Securities is being assessed objectively.

In addition, we also wish to clarify that Bursa Securities is not in a position to request any party to make any general offer. Any offer by the offerors will need to comply with the Rules on Take-Overs, Mergers and Compulsory Acquisitions of the Securities Commission.

I refer to Bjland Announcement dated 24 March 2020 below:
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3038657
The Board of Directors (“Board”) of Berjaya Land Berhad (“BLand”) wishes to announce that the public shareholding spread of BLand is 14.78% which is below the 15% minimum public shareholding spread requirement approved by Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad (“Bursa Securities”) vide its letter dated 20 December 2018.
In view of the above, the Board of BLand will seek the approval of Bursa Securities for an extension of time to comply with the approved minimum public shareholding spread requirement.

My sincere question: How many times will Bjland allowed to breach the Public spread of 15% before SC and Bursa would take actions on BJcorp to offer VGO on the remaining Bjland shares not owned by Bjcorp, TSVT and PAC on the same term as Bjcorp offer to PENTA INVESTMENT: BJCORP acquired 230,000,000 (4.61%) Bjland share value at RM 87.40 million or 38 cents per share by issued 291.33 million BJCORP share to PENTA INVESTMENT?

Thank you
Yours sincerely,
SS LEE
PS: At least TAE, Datuk Tiah and PAC offer VGO for remaining TAGB shares not owned by them.
So what hold up Bjcorp, TSVT and PAC to offer VGO for remaining Bjland shares not owned by them?

By the way as on Qatar didn’t you wrote “Qatar is their biggest revenue and profit center. They are a unique country, very rich but supporting both Iran and USA (terrorism and also the biggest US airbase this side of the world).
The interesting part has been that ever since the blockade and embargo ( but Saudi still says they will send aid to Qatar if needed), of Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi etc a lot of contractors and suppliers have dropped (forced) to leave the country since 2014. Leaving the o&m space pretty much open to Serba dinamik to step in at high margins and huge demand”?

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 09:59 | Report Abuse

So meaning you comment again without understanding,

What part of my sentence is wrong? It is all true. However, since you did not read any quarterly reports you assume it is the same as inari and assume it is the ONLY revenue source(broadcom). It is 30% of their total revenue, and the most profitable.

But you are the one who simply added,

" I do not think Philip Study Serba Dinamik 10 year records as I believe Serba Dinamik take on too much debt, expand too fast and too dependent on Qatar. "

Is this remark fair when I spent an entire year understanding the company before I bought a single share?

>>>>>>>>>

Qatar is their biggest revenue and profit center.

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 10:17 | Report Abuse

Everything in business is done based on leverage, even musim mas group.


(https://www.dnb.com/business-directory/company-profiles.musim_mas_holdings_pte_ltd.42a098a5874ddd679a08fe0daa9a122d.html#credit-reports),

If you apply leverage and debt correctly, you can grow a business into a juggernaut.

As Warren buffet likes to put it, debt and leverage is not the risk. Risk is when you do things that you do not understand. If you look at my portfolio, by applying margin and leverage correctly to buy back shares at huge 50% discounts, I am able to go back to the green on my stocks over a longer period of time, effectively averaging down. I am not worried in borrowing millions of ringgit on margin from banks to do this endeavour, firstly because the long term prospects of the company is still intact, and secondly because my initial buy in price was cheap intrinsically, so having a bigger discount due to transient market conditions ( not fundamental changes in business prospects).

What do I term transient? The salad oil crisis for AMEX, stoneco/facebook IPO crash, covid19, China us trade war.

What do I term fundamental? Broadcom selling it's entire RF business to Apple. Cambridge analytica scandal, Debenhams and Carrefour business model.


>>>>>>>>>


Sslee 4. Please read the book by KCCHONG or KCChong blogs to avoid the pitfalls by following tips from internet Sifu and understand the basic of financial report and on leverage.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2020-04-09 10:23 | Report Abuse

No Philip, i only owned Serba.

Just want to get your thought process in selecting Serba. Thanks.

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 10:24 | Report Abuse

Everything in business is done based on leverage, even musim mas group.


(https://www.dnb.com/business-directory/company-profiles.musim_mas_holdings_pte_ltd.42a098a5874ddd679a08fe0daa9a122d.html#credit-reports),

If you apply leverage and debt correctly, you can grow a business into a juggernaut.

As Warren buffet likes to put it, debt and leverage is not the risk. Risk is when you do things that you do not understand. If you look at my portfolio, by applying margin and leverage correctly to buy back shares at huge 50% discounts, I am able to go back to the green on my stocks over a longer period of time, effectively averaging down. I am not worried in borrowing millions of ringgit on margin from banks to do this endeavour, firstly because the long term prospects of the company is still intact, and secondly because my initial buy in price was cheap intrinsically, so having a bigger discount due to transient market conditions ( not fundamental changes in business prospects).

What do I term transient? The salad oil crisis for AMEX, stoneco/facebook IPO crash, covid19, China us trade war.

What do I term fundamental? Broadcom selling it's entire RF business to Apple. Cambridge analytica scandal, Debenhams and Carrefour business model.


>>>>>>>>>


Sslee 4. Please read the book by KCCHONG or KCChong blogs to avoid the pitfalls by following tips from internet Sifu and understand the basic of financial report and on leverage.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-09 10:36 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
No one say leverage is bad the only thing is leverage is a two edge swords know the pro and con and control the greed. The very good examples of companies’ bad leverage are Icon off shore, Armada, Sapnrg and etc taking on too much debt to expand during the period of high global oil price. And on Shares Margin Finance Mr. Koon pitfall on JAKS and all those margin force sell that allowed me to collect INSAS at 35 cents and Philip to collect Gkent at 46 cents, Serbadk at RM1.12, Yinson at RM 4.56 and Pchem at RM 4.09.

Thank you

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 11:55 | Report Abuse

A test of how well you understand the qualitative side of business. Insas most important revenue is coming from inari

Without checking with Google, what is the name of INARI CEO? How long has he been in the industry? How many CEO before him? How many shares does he hold? What is avago yearly revenue contribution to inari? How many percent of that contribution is total revenue derived by INARI?

This is all very important facts that I value just as much as pe and roe.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-09 13:47 | Report Abuse

Dear philip
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/nanyang_stock_expert/2020-04-09-story-h1485851966.jsp
短期波动持续，但益纳利美昌的中期展望却相当明亮，因为大客户高通已经和美国智能手机制造商签署多年合约，供应射频晶片至2023年，更是保证了未来订单。
该股目前在2021年18倍的本益比交易，较5年中值低接近1个标准差，相当吸引。而且，预期5G智能手机更快面世，会需要更多的射频产品，财测有上调机会。
近期疲弱的财报，或许会拖累股价，反而是投资者趁底吸纳此好股的机会，我们上调投资评级至“买入”
该股拥有3至4%的净股息率，还持有净现金，强稳的资产负债表足以支撑。
我们1.50令吉的目标价，是根据2021年21倍的每股净利计算，虽高于本地科技股，但益纳利美昌在射频产品市场的领导地位，值得这估值。

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/382462.jsp
Reaffirm BUY with lower target price of RM1.80. We cut our FY20-22E earnings to account for the weak earnings and negative impact from Covid-19, and lower our target price to RM1.80, based on an unchanged target PE of 24x on the CY20E EPS. Nevertheless, we continue to project a FY19-22E EPS CAGR of 27%, on expectations of strong RF demand as5G devices start to proliferate in the market. We reaffirm our BUY call. Downside risks: delay in 5G rollout, loss of customers, a sharp appreciation of the RM and weak demand for smartphones.
Your EPF is holding 9.13% 295,631,350 Inari shares

Insas hold 600+ million Inari shares. The other listed associate companies of INSAS are Hohup and DGSB.
Insas also hold 9.83% of Omesti.
Ms Foo Lee Meng from Grant Thornton Malaysia replied that the bank balances and deposits (554 million) have been verified by way of inspection of bank statements and direct written confirmation from the banks and financial institutions, and the auditors are satisfied that Insas Group has the said amount of cash with the banks and financial institutions.

The core business of INSAS is structured finance and stockbroking business under M&A Securities Sdn Bhd (“M&A”) and ICL. The Corporate Finance (CF) under M&A is quite sizeable with 20 staff and has been aggressive in undertaking IPO exercises with main focus in the ACE and Leap Market.
ICL is in accordance with the Money lending Act, charge not more than 12% p.a. for secured loans and not more than 18% p.a. for unsecured loans. Aggregate amount of outstanding loans as at 31 December 2019: RM 259,993,000

Thank you

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 14:08 | Report Abuse

Sslee, a very simple question which you post long article which has no meaning except more conjectures.

How much of revenues is INARI getting from broadcom per year and what are its revenue mix? If you still cannot answer then you really do not know inari or insas well enough.

Who are INARI customers and what is its breakdown?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-09 14:59 | Report Abuse

philips/ss

people are just trading shares based on Dow and Dow and oil futures.....

so far, penny stocks , stocks sharp drop, sharp rise, no drop no rise.

buy and hold makes sense meh?

Posted by popo92 > 2020-04-09 16:31 | Report Abuse

Having said that, Broadcom is not selling their rf business anymore. Broadcom hock said this

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-09 16:43 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2018-11-28-story184263-INSAS_56th_AGM_Part_I_Board_answered_to_my_email_written_questions.jsp
Q B3 (IV). Please provide the top 5 Inari customers in % revenue without naming the customers.
Answer B3 (IV): For FY2018 the top 3 customers accounted for 99% of Inari gross revenue in ratio of 65%, 27% and 7 % respectively.

Thank you.
P/S: Remember your comment on Icon8888 blog on Notion Vtec? I am actually looking forward to read your article/
You want to invest in a companies whose business model is burning down their factories for insurance money?

Wonderful strategy.
12/03/2020 5:05 PM
But having looked deeper into the business, I think this company may have a good future growth prospects. Ok la, join you play with my next pump and dump article
13/03/2020 7:20 AM

As on Inari,
E&E is fast evolving business and for Inari in doing so well after listing Inari too must have its strategy to evolve.

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 17:30 | Report Abuse

Yes this is true, but Apple will not sign a fixed minimum supply agreement, if their smartphone sales drop as per management guidance, then rf orders will also drop.

Personally at the price sold per phone, without a clear differentiator between Android phones and Apple phones, the long term prospects of the hardware supply will only reduce with time.

This is not a possibility, this is a certainty.

>>>>>>>

popo92 Having said that, Broadcom is not selling their rf business anymore. Broadcom hock said this
09/04/2020 4:31 PM

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-09 17:54 | Report Abuse

Very good. If inari biggest customer as we all know is broadcom, at 1 billion revenue a year, 650 million of that will come from a single customer. Apple has already known it's revenues from smartphone sales will continue to drop, and it is banking on its biggest profit margin, software to pick up the slack.

If you know the long term prospects of inari will no longer be an increase in sales from broadcom ( as announced by Apple), then you need to also look at the qualitative factors of buy and hold into INARI and thus INSAS.

Otherwise holding on to insas over 3 years is going to prove to be a very unproductive affair, and you will not have the courage to buy deep, throw everything into INSAS when it was selling at 0.35.

I am willing to throw large amounts into GKENT buying at lows because I know the long term prospects.

Now, you bought at gkent at 0.46. sold at 0.52 ( 10% gain wow). Then it subsequently went up to 0.72.

What do you do now? Do you buy INSAS? GKENT? What defines your investing principles? Past results and assets? Or future growth prospects?

>>>>>>>>

For FY2018 the top 3 customers accounted for 99% of Inari gross revenue in ratio of 65%, 27% and 7 % respectively.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-09 18:22 | Report Abuse

Haha Philip,
I am holding cash in my trading account earning me interest of 1.85% p.a.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Berhad interest rate on its client trust balance is as below:
Current Rate - 1.85% p.a.

While waiting for short-selling has been suspended until 30 April 2020 to return after 30th April and hopefully per i3lurker advice I still get the chance to do below:
Posted by i3lurker > Apr 1, 2020 2:21 PM | Report Abuse
GKent and pchem at low prices, much lower than Philip's will be ok already
no need to look elsewhere
otherwise God would have had given you more than 4 wives

Thank you

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-09 20:51 | Report Abuse

at this stage , much of discussions about fundamentals , about valuations, value investing is BS stuffs.........

one real thing is trade............

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-09 21:16 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
How many trades had you done lately or are you still trap in Kpower and Scib?

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-09 21:37 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Latest on Inari:
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/brighter-mediumterm-prospects-inari-broadcom-rf-agreements
Upgrade to buy with a lower target price (TP) of RM1.50: Inari Amertron Bhd’s share price has plunged by about 30% from its January peak, in tandem with market correction. Although near-term volatility will likely persist for the second to third quarter of 2020 (2Q-3Q20), medium-term prospects for Inari are brighter and more secured now after its key client, Broadcom, signed multi-year agreements with a US smartphone manufacturer to supply radio frequency (RF) chips up to 2023.
Key risks to our view include a significant slowdown in demand for smartphones that could affect sales for the RF segment. However, the impact may not be as severe due to rising RF content in smartphones. — AllianceDBS Research, April 8
Net profit: 2020(F): 2021(F): 2022(F)
RM million: 125: 207: 238

Thank you
P/S: So what will be Gkent long term prospect after LRT3 and MRT2 completed in 5 year time?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-09 22:02 | Report Abuse

for buy and hold I guess quality is important
for trading nowadays, I guess no quality is best...........

Posted by popo92 > 2020-04-09 22:14 | Report Abuse

The required content of rf on 5g phone is almost double on 4g phones. Also even though apple is biggest contributor to broadcom, they also sell rf chips to other smartphone players like huawei. The only rf chip players so far is broadcom, skywork, qorvo. in term of innovative and quality, skywork and qorvo is still far away from broadcom other from their cheaper price (mainly use on budget phones). broadcom rf is still very niche on premium clients selling premium products. The rf chip future isn't as dark on broadcom as most of their rf are only for smartphones now. In future 5g iot will drive more beyond smartphones to automotive, pcs or laptops, meters and so many possibilities. Inari will no doubt benefits contents require grow exponentially. In fact, what inari management foresee their rf orders will double within years are not possibility, but certainty.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE )
Yes this is true, but Apple will not sign a fixed minimum supply agreement, if their smartphone sales drop as per management guidance, then rf orders will also drop.
Personally at the price sold per phone, without a clear differentiator between Android phones and Apple phones, the long term prospects of the hardware supply will only reduce with time.
This is not a possibility, this is a certainty.

Posted by Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) > 2020-04-10 07:20 | Report Abuse

Fyi osat means outsourced assembly and test.
So if you are a major manufacturer you would look to these things:
1. Outsource to the nearest supply chain to your production center
2. Outsource to the cheapest source.
3. Outsource to the highest quality supplier.
4. Outsource to the best r&d supplier.
5. Outsource to a related/stable/political source ( subsidiary).

This is how I would start my qualitative scuttlebutt OSAT companies if I am looking to invest in one for the long term.

Which does inari, vitrox and others fall into?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-10 09:30 | Report Abuse

if everyone thinks like u, there will be no OSATs in Malaysia.........thankfully, they are many and they provide good employment in Malaysia.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-10 09:41 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3
If you read Inari Annual Report you would know how Broadcom rate Inari:

So if you are a major manufacturer you would look to these things:
1. Outsource to the nearest supply chain to your production center
2. Outsource to the cheapest source.
3. Outsource to the highest quality supplier.
4. Outsource to the best r&d supplier.
5. Outsource to a related/stable/political source ( subsidiary).
https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2017/09/19/broadcom-launches-rm59m-global-distribution-warehouse-in-penang/1468319

Thank you

Posted by popo92 > 2020-04-10 09:47 | Report Abuse

vitrox is not OSAT companies though..

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This is how I would start my qualitative scuttlebutt OSAT companies if I am looking to invest in one for the long term.

Which does inari, vitrox and others fall into?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-10 09:53 | Report Abuse

Broadcom..........Broadcom undergoing many changes, can depend on them? The Singapore guy still in charge?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-10 09:55 | Report Abuse

from stock market point of view, Philips is probably right..........and we are talking about stock market.......

but from country point of view, we really need those OSATS and Malaysia do offer some advantages..............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-10 09:56 | Report Abuse

and yes, Vitrox is a gem............they can even sell their machines to Japan, Taiwan, China, Europe.............who could have imagined that?

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-10 10:05 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3
Boardcom CEO Mr. Tan Hock Eng is Penangite not Singaporean. Singaporeans are too pampered to venture out.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-10 10:14 | Report Abuse

oh.......still CEO?