Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-05-19 15:40 | Report Abuse

from the management own words: decide what you will.

BUSINESS PROSPECTS

The Board foresees a challenging period for the Group, taking into account the competitive market landscape and has initiated active tender participation for domestic infrastructure projects. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group expects to remain profitable in the current financial year.

Construction Division The highly competitive environment of the construction industry, coupled with the fast escalating material prices and labor costs has further deteriorated our overall margins for the existing on-going projects. Nevertheless, the Division will continue to implement continuous cost management measures to safeguard its margin. The current outstanding order book of RM1.30 billion shall provide stable income visibility going forward. (tender renegotiation is never good for anybody)

Property Division The overall weakness in the property market has affected sales and accordingly impacted the performance of our Property Division. The Division has introduced more aggressive marketing efforts to promote sales of its existing on-going and completed projects. With unbilled sales of RM93.10 million and planned new launches, the Property Division is expected to deliver positive performance in this financial year. (many unsold properties but still launching more, good for "assets and bookbuilding", bad for long term earnings)

Utility Division Earnings from the existing four water concession plants will remain stable. (no future growth plans)

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER Research IB > 2019-05-19 15:44 | Report Abuse

I hate cats too.

Posted by MrPotato88 > 2019-05-19 16:20 | Report Abuse

Thanks Philip for the sharing

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-05-29 08:50 | Report Abuse

Hmm. Well i like PCHEM.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-05-30 06:39 | Report Abuse

Is it possible to also add Stone Co in here?

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-05-30 06:44 | Report Abuse

This one is bursa only

Posted by Financers > 2019-06-07 21:48 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip, read your article on 'How to Value Family Mart', which I found it to be a rather interesting read. By the way, like to check with you on Maxincome resource sdn bhd's Revenue of RM75.1mil and PAT of RM7.1mil. Are these FY19 (ended Mar 2019) historical number? Mind sharing your sources for the figures?

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-06-10 06:49 | Report Abuse

Hi I received mine from CTOS.

Posted by Financers > 2019-06-10 09:34 | Report Abuse

Thanks Philip.

Posted by Nowek > 2019-07-06 16:06 | Report Abuse

hi Mr Philip,

What do you think of Takaful? Do you have any holdings in it? Would love to hear your comments and insights regarding the stock especially on the fundamental of the company and future growth potential aspect.Thank you.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-06 16:12 | Report Abuse

These are my only holdings currently for Bursa market.

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-07-17 12:49 | Report Abuse

Bought a huge block of pchem at 7.91

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-07-24 18:28 | Report Abuse

Averaged down at 7.49 with 50k shares

Posted by jackfruit > 2019-07-24 18:51 | Report Abuse

Wah...Philip so confident on Petronas Chem management.

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-13 23:42 | Report Abuse

Picked up pchem at 7.12@200k shares today on margin.

Posted by lazycat > 2019-08-14 00:27 | Report Abuse

yeah but even included div , ur year to date return so far is -2.06% :l

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-14 05:57 | Report Abuse

I see, your investment horizon is 6 months?, If that is the case, you should probably be looking at other portfolios with higher risk appetites. As I am looking to buy strong businesses with good fundamentals, I try to stay away from companies with volatile speculative share price movements and swingy business models. If you are interested in short term jumps of 20-30% I suggest you to look at other portfolios and investors. For me, new businesses, financially unstable companies and microcap stocks will have those big jumps, followed by big drops in share price.

Also my year to date result is based on starting in 2019, when almost all of my stocks have had big climbs in share price ( QL doubled last year, topglove,). Yinson this year finally found it's tender confirmation up from rm4 to rm7 ytd. My new held stocks is gkent, pchem, both of which are waiting for results from their billion dollar projects in 2020.( PIC commercialization in 4Q 2019, lRT3 revenue to realize in 1Q 2020).

It would probably be a good idea to come back 1-2 years from now to revisit my results.

Another exercise which I think all young investors to do is not only to look at the returns of their current picks, but also review the returns of the picks not bought but researched, and also to compare vs Bursa market returns.

That gives you an idea of the real performance of your stock portfolio.

During the US CHINA trade war, I find it hard to judge any stock performance of a company fairly.

Huawei is one of China biggest companies, but at the same time the trade war is hurting then a lot today. But in the future 5-10 years from now? Huawei is the cheapest and most efficient 5G manufacturer in the market with a very very strong R&D team. If you judge Huawei returns on today result, you would be making a mistake.

Ask I can say is: enjoy the discount day while it lasts.

Posted by lazycat > 2019-08-14 13:57 | Report Abuse

it would be a beautiful dream for any investor if their stock picks support by big rise in stock price , especially if the price start to move rapidly after they done building up their position.

so yes, if i can get most gain in shortest time, why not?
1-2 years time from now , myb pchem still in RM8-9 range , while hibicuis price might move from current RM1 to RM 3 , in this case, what would be the smarter decision?

Posted by No right Nor wrong Only to Win > 2019-08-14 14:22 | Report Abuse

Lazycat , u r a smart lazy cat.

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-14 20:00 | Report Abuse

The smartest decision would be to pick the stock with the lowest risk and highest upside. For hibiscus to go from rm1 to rm3 a lot of assumptions need to be made, whole pchem trading above rm10 is assured. In the meanwhile, hibiscus has never given out a dividend, while pchem operates on very high net margins, a healthy level of dividend payouts( below 50%), and it is a market leader with a very strong brand and customer base. The risk involved is so low I am willing to risk millions, my wife retirement fund, my own retirement fund, my father in law retirement fund on this investment.

How much is your risk appetite for hibiscus? Are you willing to put your entire family fortune on hibiscus?

Is the business model strong enough and the company wonderful enough that you feel confident enough to bet the farm on it?

If you think making gains from rm 1-3 with a high risk in the business is worthwhile, then you are smarter than me. I prefer making rm7-10, with 30-40 cents dividends every year consistently with a company with strong balance sheet and very low risk of losing money.

Posted by lazycat > 2019-08-14 20:10 | Report Abuse

i don't think hibiscus is riskier than pchem

i remember early this year i ask your opinion about penta, u seem interested ,but u said vitrox is better, well, penta almost double it share price now and it did not pay any dividend, while vitrox stagnant :/

Posted by stockraider > 2019-08-14 20:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-14 20:30 | Report Abuse

I won't argue with you on that, as both are business that I don't understand well and so will not invest in. In all honesty my thought process was vitrox had a bigger base of customers, a bigger casual and cash flow levels than penta, and better long term mix especially with customers involved in 5g. I did miss the fact The net profit is higher because of the tax free status which is ending soon.

Most importantly when I value risk, i mean business risk. You cannot honestly say pchem business is riskier than hibiscus.

A very simple question. If Sabah shell was so good and profitable, why did they sell it to hibiscus in the first place? For an asset which is nearing send of life in resources, hope secure are the oil barrels and the price? That is risk.

>>>>>>>


lazycat i don't think hibiscus is riskier than pchem

i remember early this year i ask your opinion about penta, u seem interested ,but u said vitrox is better, well, penta almost double it share price now and it did not pay any dividend, while vitrox stagnant :/
14/08/2019 8:10 PM

Posted by lazycat > 2019-08-14 20:49 | Report Abuse

A very simple question. If Sabah shell was so good and profitable, why did they sell it to hibiscus in the first place? For an asset which is nearing send of life in resources, hope secure are the oil barrels and the price? That is risk.
>>>>>>>>>>

I don't speculate about why they made the decision, what matter to me is hibicus able to pump oil out from those oilfield and how many barrel of oil in those oilfield, and of course their costs , etc etc

i allocated 30% of my capital on hibicus , i think it current price is trade at 35% discount , QR coming soon in next 3 weeks , wish me luck, i wish u luck too, peace vOO

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-14 22:14 | Report Abuse

Wish you luck!

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-14 22:32 | Report Abuse

Myvi driver wants to talk mathematics, let's talk chaos theory and probability analysis.

Let's try it out, shall we?

Stockraider has guaranteed 31st August 2019 as a date where INSAS will hit 0.9 cents. You have 1 million which MUST BE INVESTED.

Option A. You buy an option that pays you 10x if INSAS share price is above 0.9 cents but you lose EVERYTHING if it doesn't hit 0.9.

Option B. You buy an option that pays you 2x if INSAS share is above 0.8, but lose EVERYTHING if INSAS share price is below 0.8.

Option C. You buy PCHEM to get a dividend of 11 cents on 28 August 2019 at 7.30, but have to lose the difference of the share price at 31st August 2019.

What is the most probable action where you have the most profit to gain, but at the same time the best protection of your capital.

You can try this exercise and view your results at the end of the month to understand why Warren buffets golden rule is

1. Never lose money.
2. Refer rule 1.

By understanding capital risk, opportunity risk and business risk you become a better investor.





>>>>>>>>
Of course this sohai, says pchem hitting above Rm 10.00 is a big deal but mathematically is not mah...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-08-14 22:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-08-15 09:51 | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by stockraider > Aug 14, 2019 10:58 PM | Report Abuse

THIS SOHAI PHILIP COMMENT AGAIN NOT REALISTIC MAH...!!

>>>


To label Philip such, stockraider the troll-ey is dishonest.

Look at Philip's and stockraider's records, they speak loudly.

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-15 10:03 | Report Abuse

Stockraider does not have a trackable record, only bullshit. He everyday say only, but cannot verify.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-08-15 10:27 | Report Abuse

Official track record ?
Remember our bets Insas Rm 0.67 v QL Rm 6.70

posted by (S=QR) Philip > Aug 15, 2019 10:03 AM | Report Abuse

Stockraider does not have a trackable record, only bullshit. He everyday say only, but cannot verify.

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-15 10:29 | Report Abuse

You call that an official track record? Do you know what a portfolio is?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-08-15 10:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-08-15 10:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 10:42 | Report Abuse

bought CIMB and Thong Guan

added Gkent

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 10:50 | Report Abuse

I think market overreact to the yield curve thingy

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-15 10:50 | Report Abuse

CIMB is a good play, actually almost all stocks now are downgraded because of market worries about trade war and whatnot. In the long run, these temporary effects of just another way of giving you a discount day.

Thong Guan seems interesting, let me study it a bit.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 10:50 | Report Abuse

many stocks rock bottom

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-15 10:54 | Report Abuse

Exactly, PCHEM is paying me 250k (11 cents dividend) to wait. At rm7, I am more than happy to do so, especially after the completion of da Vinci acquisition and PIC rollout. 2020 will be a wonderful year, with Olympics in Japan ( QL big beneficiary) gkent( LRT3 revenue incoming) and many others.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 10:55 | Report Abuse

bought pchem at 715

I notice almost half profit from fertiliser

maybe not so susceptible to current trade war that has affected petrochemical ?

philip sifu any comment on that ?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-08-15 10:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 10:58 | Report Abuse

I always quarrelled with sifu Philips, but deep in my heart got high regards also

(won't say same nice thing to 3iii, ignorant and arrogant cunt)


Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Aug 15, 2019 10:50 AM | Report Abuse

CIMB is a good play, actually almost all stocks now are downgraded because of market worries about trade war and whatnot. In the long run, these temporary effects of just another way of giving you a discount day.

Thong Guan seems interesting, let me study it a bit.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 10:59 | Report Abuse

bring your nonsense somewhere else, we talk stocks here



Posted by i3lurker > Aug 15, 2019 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

beneath the rock bottom is liquid metal bottom.

ALL western investors are bypassing Malaysia due to the high probability of Islamic Revolution coz now we have a racist Ayatollah sponsored, morally supported and helped by Tun Dr M himself.

Who is stupid to invest when Islamic Revolution gonna happen very soon?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-08-15 10:59 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 > Aug 15, 2019 10:55 AM | Report Abuse

bought pchem at 715

I notice almost half profit from fertiliser
===========

its not about half or more from fertiser.........its about how much exposures to equities..............and whether should continue trading......................

Posted by stockraider > 2019-08-15 11:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-08-15 11:02 | Report Abuse

if investing about buying some thing and it continues to grow and grow , so be it..................


but mostly, people loses a lot of money from trading shares when they are supposed to stop......................

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 11:04 | Report Abuse

sifu qqq3 so geng,......

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-15 11:08 | Report Abuse

It is more a case of samur is the biggest monopoly this side of sea, where so many Palm oil plantations rely on urea fertilizer which no other competitor in scale and price. Which is why I always laugh when people think pchem is a one horse trick.

The bigger trick is when aromatics and specialty chemicals from pic and da Vinci acquainted comes online, for a good revenue and net profit growth trajectory 10 years into the future.

>>>>>>>

I notice almost half profit from fertiliser

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 11:10 | Report Abuse

I read that (MIDF ?) when RAPID comes on line, can add RM850 mil net profit per annum

what the heck, take a bet loh

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 11:14 | Report Abuse

Macquarie, not midf :

"In 4Q19, PCHEM will start a new petrochemical facility, expanding its production capacity by 15% (1.8mn tpa). MQ Research sees PCHEM’s PIC-PETCHEM (known as RAPID) – which takes downstream only margin – is better positioned in the current supply glut of upstream ethylene. Once it fully ramps up, MQ Research estimates the new project could add an OP of RM850mn (19% of 2019E OP) pa. This attribute protects it more from potential fluctuations in product prices compared to peers."

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-15 11:14 | Report Abuse

It is because of people like this that I can make money in stock market. When everyone start looking down on Malaysia is when I turn 1 million into 5 million.

Mark my words, those who wait for the Islamic Revolution are those who miss buying stocks at cheap prices.

I learned my lesson from the 1997 hongkong China-British fear, not realising wonderful business will continue no matter what.

I wasn't as smart as KYY back then, and thought the end was near for Hong Kong.

But we learn new things every day.

This remark by i3lurker is making me consider increasing my margin account and going full ham.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > Aug 15, 2019 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

beneath the rock bottom is liquid metal bottom.

ALL western investors are bypassing Malaysia due to the high probability of Islamic Revolution coz now we have a racist Ayatollah sponsored, morally supported and helped by Tun Dr M himself.

Who is stupid to invest when Islamic Revolution gonna happen very soon?