Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-06 18:12 | Report Abuse

On margin.

Posted by smalltimespeculator > 2020-02-06 20:17 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip, when valueing a stock, and deciding whether to buy or not...

is EV/Ebitda , PE etc. etc very important ? or they are important, but not the first priority?

For example,
NESTLE was picked as a stock which i believe is good and has sustainable and predictable business.

10 years ago, when it was trading at RM20 something i didn't buy. when it went to 60 something, i didn't buy. at 80 something, i didn't buy. All these while, it's PE was 30x which is considered a PREMIUM.

now it's at 140 something, PE50x which is very expensive.

as you can see, i waited for the the "valuation" to fall before i buy in. IT didn't happen to companies like NESTLE, and instead valuation keep growing.

what is your opinion on this? for example one of the stock that you have , QL, it's not cheap in valuation too. but the valuation just kept growing.

Posted by Joon Chan > 2020-02-07 06:50 | Report Abuse

Hmmm.. A long long time ago, stocks needed at the end of their life cycle to pay dividends. PE was a good gauge for EY x DP = DY .

If identifying potential high paying dividend paying stocks is your goal, maybe it's good.Why you would want to do that? Perhaps when your'e old and need the income (then again doesn't make the most sense)

But now think of it as a quality score for among it's peers :

1. How likely it'll dominate the market
2. How likely it'll have pricing power and monopoly
3. How likely it'll stay in business

You don't have to care much about "valuation", or if it is a fair deal, when it kills everything else it's competing with. You see every company ha competition, does it matter the value when the profits go to high PE company and drains away from low PE company?

Every quarter, if it's bigger & stronger - the value goes up. By how much? Don't know. Depends on the market. =)

Intuitively the max value of the company then really is it's %profit x %marketshare x marketgrowth

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-07 08:36 | Report Abuse

In my opinion, no two stocks are the same, thus multiple metrics are needed to understand a company. Rather than looking at levels of importance, I think it is more important to understand all the valuation methods, so you know the difference of each:

For example:

PE is basically a measure of what the market is willing to pay for the earnings of the company today. In essence, it looks at the confidence level of investors in the company. However, this metric does not look at the risk inherent in the company, things like debt levels, loans, growth. So if you are using only this metric to value a company, you would notice that companies with many hidden problems, appear to be good deals, because the future hit on earnings is not reflected.

NTA is another example. If you throw a stone at any property stock in Malaysia, using NTA as a metric you would find all of them are very undervalued. Buy? Not necessarily. By our accounting rules, unsold property count as assets, with the value of the entire condo based on the last done price of e apartment ( usually bought by the developers themselves). But what is the real value of an unsold condominium? That is the difference between accounting on paper and real life.

Even earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation. What is the D&A? If you own a taxi and use it for business, do you throw away the taxi after 7 years? Or does it continue to help you to earn money. For example in bumi Armada, you can have a reversal when the fso once thought useless and headed for scrap suddenly gets an order and starts generating revenue again.

Even debt. Most of the time we look at debt as something bad. But take the case of yinson. They have a perpetual loan, where the principal has to be paid back in 999 years, while interest is served yearly. Is this a bad dent or good debt? If your father borrowed you 1 billion with no intention of getting back the principal as long as you pay him 5% every year ad infinitum, how would you value this debt compared to a standard bond ( principal+ coupon + interest after x years). Would you value a company that has the reputation to get these kind of jobs differently?

As investors become more complex and companies become more sneaky, management can constantly find many ways to sneak losses or shareholder depreciation without notice. If you only look at a few metrics like earnings, EV, etc you would fall to notice non cash payments or rewards to staff in the forms of warrants, esos, private placements etc which you won't notice hurting your earnings per share until it happens. How to value those companies? Especially when you buy REITs for the dividend yield, then noticing share dilution being used to prop up dividends.

My advise is to treat valuation there same as buying a car or house. First you look at the usual places where the price will be affected ( lady/male driver, km driven, history of accidents), then you open up the engine to see if any halfcut, welding, original parts replaced, then you look at the dents and bruises and trustability of the car seller. Obviously if you are buying a new car, some items can be overlooked, some ignored. But in essence it is the same. Don't be blinded by the shiny paint job ( the front pages chairman statements etc) and go for the nitty gritty ( notes and the financial statements, especially the notes!)



>>>>>>>>>

smalltimespeculator Dear Philip, when valueing a stock, and deciding whether to buy or not...

is EV/Ebitda , PE etc. etc very important ? or they are important, but not the first priority?

Posted by smalltimespeculator > 2020-02-07 17:41 | Report Abuse

thank you

Posted by Joon Chan > 2020-02-08 16:49 | Report Abuse

http://www.investaura.co/2012/07/why-pe-ratios-are-useless/

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2020-02-08 17:14 | Report Abuse

Do you predict QR for Pchem will be green next?

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-10 07:49 | Report Abuse

Pchem I can pretty much guarantee will never lose money. You have to understand where the money comes. Almost half of their revenue comes from samur, the urea plant in Sabah, which supplies a huge amount of fertilizer to South East Asia, which is needed for Palm oil plantations. They are the biggest manufacturer with scale in the region, meaning their production costs are cheaper than the nearest producer, China. Samur produces 1.2 million tonnes of urea a year ( gonna is the world's biggest producer with 61 million). Obviously there is a shortage of urea fertilizer in the region, as from pchem earnings we can see that their gross margins are around 39% (545 earnings from 1368 revenue).

More importantly, previous quarter the plant utilization was 69%, versus this later quarter of 83%
. Their average plant utilization of around 90-95%.

I would say it is a perfect storm which caused their share price to plummet. Let orders due to trade war, increased turnaround activities and maintenance due to reduction in orders, resulting on lower production and lower price. But as the demand increases ( due to china virus restrictions) and tightened supply, in the next few quarters pchem supply and will increase as well as production.

You can say the pchem has never had a problem selling ( even with it's historically high margins (25% net profit historically. Even in it's worse condition it can still able to maintain 15% profit margin.

Pchem looks to drastically increase production by 30% this year from PIC. Just as China is curtailing production and closing borders in their bid to control the spread of the virus.

Your guess is as good as mine. But I'm pretty confident that since historically they have never lost money before, they have the biggest quantity of scale producer (4th largest in world) so they can undercut everyone and still make money, and they are expecting more demand in the years to come ( with the expansion from PIC), I'm pretty confident.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2020-02-10 08:39 | Report Abuse

Thank you for your advice, Philip

Posted by smalltimespeculator > 2020-02-19 20:47 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip, your advice is an eye opener.

I am studying MasterCard INC . It's PE was highest in 2018, reached as high as 50 in Mar2018, share price was about 183USD.

for the rest of 2018, it was trading between PE40-50, but share price kept climbing to a high of 222USD before retreating to 173USD end of 2018, where is PE also dropped to 34, But because the profit and revenue kept increasing the share price did not drop to 125USD(assuming profit remained constant at the Mar2018 level).
The PE Corrected because the Revenue & profits increased while the share price retreated.

Today, Mastercard INC share price is 341USD, with a PE ratio of approx. 43.

your explanation is a an eye opener.

we are always trying to buy "cheap" stocks based on metrics, but like you said, why is people willing to sell the stock so cheap to you?

Thank You for the eye opener.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-19 20:54 | Report Abuse

U pakai otak..covid 19 virus, trade war and msia political crisis of course, we must kasi some allowance & adjustment sikit mah...!!

Macam Philip pun kata Pchem can go Rm 10.00 tapi sekarang baru Rm 6.56, raider pun understand mah....no need go to pchem complain everytime mah......!! Only complain 1 or 2 time only loh...!!

But most importantly...insas recommend 83 sen beli recently, sudah naik to 86 sen....all investor make monies within a period of 2 mths mah...!!

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 19, 2020 3:22 PM | Report Abuse

In August 19 stoneraider said insas go to 90 cent.
In January 20 stoneraider said insas go to rm1.
Now in April 2020, stoneraider say insas can go to 3.50????

Who is giving false information here?

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 08:03 | Report Abuse

My qualitative view on adding Serba dinamik, their main business model is operations and maintenance, all items that require very little in purchasing big ticket items or storing warehouses of equipment. Mostly needed is just simple manpower and high level of expertise in servicing and maintaining equipment ( high engineering skill). They have 21 years of experience in this, their CEO karim is a technical man who knows a thing or two about engineering ( IR in mechanical engineering, same as me in requiring to get a certain level of points every year to keep the ir status and learniwhereng more everyday).

In terms of business prospects, Qatar is their biggest revenue and profit center. They are a unique country, very rich but supporting both Iran and USA ( terrorism and also the biggest US airbase this side of the world).

The interesting part has been that ever since the blockade and embargo ( but Saudi still says they will send aid to Qatar if needed), of Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi etc a lot of contractors and suppliers have dropped ( forced) to leave the country since 2014. Leaving the o&m space pretty much open to Serba dinamik to step in at high margins and huge demand. Going in at cheap prices, using technology transfers from cse global and India subsidiary ( https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/04/13/serba-dinamik-buys-big-stake-in-cse-global), they are building up a localized price with cheap costs to take jobs from international companies.

O&M is an interesting beast, due to its nature you will find that manpower expenses are the biggest cost ( variable costs) which is easily managed compared to inventory. Therefore you will see 1.2 billion in receivables ( below 30 days payment no impairment due to if not payment entire plant stops production not an option to delay, as we know production and profits to owner). On the other hand payables are very low due to only stocking small spare parts and ordering big items only when overhaul needed ( which if maintenance is done right not often).

Serba is also interesting in that it is similar to yinson, where it started out internationally, getting international team together first, then expanding back to Malaysia and SEA.

Is it a good bet? So far it seems good as the results have shown increasing revenues and profits, and a good line of credit from sukuk to fund projects.

We shall monitor and see from the latest qr report coming up to decide what to do.

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-27 12:00 | Report Abuse

Wait a min, Philip sold QL?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-27 12:24 | Report Abuse

Philip ( Icarus) > Feb 27, 2020 8:03 AM | Report Abuse

My qualitative view on adding Serba dinamik
============


rich man buy serba...........poor man buy Karim new toys scib and Kpower......no need read balance sheet..........just buy the man..........


also not true only poor man buy new toys...........a lot of funds also buy the man and his new toys............they say like betting on elon musk one..............


Karim got a lot of very satisfied customers ( fund managers) , now, he wants rain sure get rain, he wants wind, sure get wind..............

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-27 12:24 | Report Abuse

QL is fairy value but Pchem is very under value.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-27 12:27 | Report Abuse

As far as i know philip pick on oil n gas Pchem and construction gkent is very poor n all will make losses if follow him loh...!!

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-27 12:33 | Report Abuse

Haha stockraider,
Don't be like that. Pchem already drop from 9+ to 5+ not yet very under value? Need to support index stock. Two years money min 60% ROI.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-27 12:34 | Report Abuse

every few people know Qatar but in fact Qatar is nearest to heaven on earth with world's highest GDP per capital, a population consisting of 90% expatriates and good governance and second safest place on earth, next only to Singapore.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-27 12:38 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
OK next time any shares with K factor please hang big banner I also want in

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-27 12:41 | Report Abuse

I call it X factor..........

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-02-27 12:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-27 12:56 | Report Abuse

Haha 3iii,
Do you still use credit card for payment?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-27 13:03 | Report Abuse

sslee.............truth be told, my portfolio now only got scib and Kpower............but much less now than before....been selling last two days because I don't like what I see re virus and politics............


now., I will buy scib and Kpower when I think it is time to buy........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-27 13:36 | Report Abuse

my profits from trading in SCIB and Kpower in last couple of weeks , I very happy already.................

like I say............stock market............its all about attitude....what to buy and how many............

Posted by whereyoupunter > 2020-02-27 13:55 | Report Abuse

oldman finally added serba dinamik ah? wakaka

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 14:29 | Report Abuse

As far as I know despite accounting land statistics, stockraider insas is losing 2 year bet with ql. And his big bet on this year stock competition of 30% weight age is not doing well, no dividend, no profits etc. How leh?

As far as I know, you are a fraud. Got no portfolio, got no results. Bjland la , insas warrants mgo la, sapnrg la whatever all bullshit.

Me? Pchem and gkent got lose money meh? No ah. Got no dividend meh? Got ah. Got factory exploded and disappear meh? No ah. Last I check IPIC and LRT3 contract still there and submitted claim to prasarana leh.

Follow you where? NETX ah?


>>>>>>>>>

stockraider As far as i know philip pick on oil n gas Pchem and construction gkent is very poor n all will make losses if follow him loh...!!
27/02/2020 12:27 PM

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 14:30 | Report Abuse

Sapura go Holland got la.

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 14:39 | Report Abuse

Old Man learn new tricks like buying Apple mah. In either case this is still a small sum under margin and selling at a good Corona discount.

We shall see where this leads.

I'm not saying Serba dinamik is a wonderful company etc, but having done maintenance contracts myself if you don't need to stock products it is quite profitable. And if problems happen in Qatar, they can get out with minimal losses, unlike case in point sumatec.

To be honest Serba for me is a safer bet. I treat them as a specialist company working in an o&g industry but not o&g themselves. Similar to how I previously bought yinson for the long term.

Hopefully they expand their operations away from middle East and concentrate more internationally.

>>>>>>>>

whereyoupunter oldman finally added serba dinamik ah? wakaka
27/02/2020 1:55 PM

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 14:45 | Report Abuse

It was a hard choice, I hate to sell stocks. I sold ql at 8.6( from my previous purchase of QL at 6.25 during Christmas 2018) to buy more yinson at 6.4 earlier this month. I think almost all industries other than o&g will find themselves hurting in the short term under the virus and trade wars.

But I believed that yinson will get the Ghana contract ( they have previous project there) over international SGM, and in the next few years things will be really looking up for yinson.

Who knows? In a few years it may just be my 3rd 10 bagger company I hold.

>>>>>>>>>

Outliar Wait a min, Philip sold QL?
27/02/2020 12:00 PM

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 14:49 | Report Abuse

It is also a country with a terrorist training center, support for Iran, and funnily enough the biggest US airbase in the region.

Donald trump keep scolding Qatar for supporting terrorist but his chief of staff general keep trying to support Qatar because it helps to store US army troops.

>>>>>>

qqq33333333 every few people know Qatar but in fact Qatar is nearest to heaven on earth with world's highest GDP per capital, a population consisting of 90% expatriates and good governance and second safest place on earth, next only to Singapore.
27/02/2020 12:34 PM

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-27 14:53 | Report Abuse

I don think so loh...just bcos Ql leading by a very small margin, this Philip start singing already loh...!!

U must remember insas was leading almost for the whole year mah...!!

I think by year end insas will beat QL flat loh...!!

It is always safer to hold on margin of safety stock like insas compare to overvalue QL loh...!!


Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > Feb 27, 2020 2:29 PM | Report Abuse

As far as I know despite accounting land statistics, stockraider insas is losing 2 year bet with ql. And his big bet on this year stock competition of 30% weight age is not doing well, no dividend, no profits etc. How leh?

As far as I know, you are a fraud. Got no portfolio, got no results. Bjland la , insas warrants mgo la, sapnrg la whatever all bullshit.

Me? Pchem and gkent got lose money meh? No ah. Got no dividend meh? Got ah. Got factory exploded and disappear meh? No ah. Last I check IPIC and LRT3 contract still there and submitted claim to prasarana leh.

Follow you where? NETX ah?


>>>>>>>>>

stockraider As far as i know philip pick on oil n gas Pchem and construction gkent is very poor n all will make losses if follow him loh...!!
27/02/2020 12:27 PM

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 15:03 | Report Abuse

In the short term stocks is a popularity contest. In the long term it is a weighing machine. So now why don't you go wag your tail and find other people to chat with in your netx forum and your sapura forum. Maybe Calvin tan will pet your head instead.

I already know your investment concepts and gambling methods.

But in the end talk big and no money.

Say very big with insas warrants but in the end only lose 5k? Wasting time la you.

Are you looking for a friend or people to give you attention?

Sorry, please go away, you keep repeat same story which don't work and I lazy layan you.

Hengyuan.
Bjland.
Insas.
Sapura.
Netx.


>>>>>>>

stockraider I don think so loh...just bcos Ql leading by a very small margin, this Philip start singing already loh...!!

U must remember insas was leading almost for the whole year mah...!!

I think by year end insas will beat QL flat loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-27 15:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-27 15:46 | Report Abuse

y Philip ( Icarus) > Feb 27, 2020 2:49 PM | Report Abuse

It is also a country with a terrorist training center, support for Iran, and funnily enough the biggest US airbase in the region.

Donald trump keep scolding Qatar for supporting terrorist but his chief of staff general keep trying to support Qatar because it helps to store US army troops.
==============


in your next travels, I highly recommend u take a detour to Qatar.....don't lah just believe every thing CNN says............

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-27 15:49 | Report Abuse

Philip, when do you intend to put your money where your mouth is and top up again? (that came off abit crass, not my intention)

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 15:52 | Report Abuse

Please, just go away and hang around with your friends in bumi armada and sapura. Im busy using my dividends to buy more shares of PCHEM.

you want to do another bet?

In 3 years 3 months time (like you promote mah right?),
PCHEM will be rm10,
your Sapura Energy you said will be worth rm3 right?

Dare to bet?



>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Feb 27, 2020 3:19 PM | Report Abuse

This Philip sohai talk longrun N short run loh...!!

Look at the facts, Philip says Pchem will be Rm 10.00.

But long run now about 1 year it is about Rm 5.80 loh...!!

If u listen to him buy 1 year ago...u will be another sohai loh...!!

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 16:04 | Report Abuse

You mean in Pchem? In all honesty, the effects of covid 19 will have a full effect in the next quarter, as this quarter was due to turnaround and us-china trade war (up to dec this quarter, jan quarter is covid).

I have a feeling the pent up recovering of product prices will be more during the 2nd quarter of 2020 FY.

But in any case with big cap stocks like this the push is slow and steady. More than enough time to monitor.

For me, I will use my dividends to buy more stock after ex-date 12 march, which I suspect will have another drop (or increase, who knows) in share price.

Currently if you assume the normalized EPS to be 15 cents per share per quarter, the normalized PE would be around 60 cents per quarter, PE10. which is very good for a stock of this quality.

I am waiting for a price below RM5 (below IPO price) before I throw another few million into it. Else if it recovers, I will be happy to slowly build up a position.

You know my methods, slowly buy quarter after quarter. I dont have to win big, just be right over the long term.

>>>>>>

Posted by Outliar > Feb 27, 2020 3:49 PM | Report Abuse

Philip, when do you intend to put your money where your mouth is and top up again? (that came off abit crass, not my intention)

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-27 16:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 16:44 | Report Abuse

Who promote sape 3 years 3 months price will be rm3?

You want me to dig back your old post?

If you write one don't dare to admit then fxxk off la, you fake.

Whose maths you write or I write in your post? Or you forgot already who write sape 3 years 3 month rm3.

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 16:47 | Report Abuse

Before you delete posts like Calvin tan.


>>>>>>>>
Posted by stockraider > Mar 27, 2019 3:51 PM | Report Abuse

U use ur head & think lah....!!

How people can lose when Raider 3 yrs 3 mths TP Rm 3.00 and when the share price only 33 sen leh ??

U must invest long term loh....if u look at the price everyday...u sure get confuse and get panic loh...!!

Believe raider mah, bcos raider is cocksure u will sure make money in 3 yrs time mah....and not 3 mins, 3 hours , 3 days or 3 mths time loh...it is always long term 3 yrs time....u must buy & lock up loh....!!

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-27 16:51 | Report Abuse

So now how. Your cock not sure anymore?

If not sure anymore then fxxk off la.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-02-28 00:41 | Report Abuse

QL BUSINESS LOOKS ON SURFACE GROWING

A DEEPER LOOK INTO ITS BALANCE SHEET & BUSINESS QUITE GRUESOME

1) REVENUE INCREASED BY 13% BUT OPERATING PROFIT DECRESED BY 2%

LIKE DLADY QL HAS TO WORKER HARDER DUE TO COMPETITION BUT PROFIT EVEN DOWN FURTHER DUE TO NO PRICING POWER

MYNEWS & 7 ELEVEN SELLING FOOD AT CHEAPER PRICES CAPPED QL FROM INCREASING ITS PRICES

2) ALREADY SO STRESSED BY HIGH TURNOVER WITH LESSER PROFIT NOW CORONAVIRUS IS IMPACTING ITS BUSINESS

SEE

B3 Prospects for the year ending 31st March 2020
Covid-19 is likely to impact Q4 performance, however the management will still strive to achieve double digit growth for FY2020 against FY2019.


3) THIS CORONAVIRUS ALREADY IMPACTED CASH FLOW OF NEW FAMILY MART FRANCHISE BUSINESS AS ITS RECEIVABLES INCREASED

Other receivables, assets and prepayment FROM RM106.493, MILLIONS TO RM180.968 MILLIONS (IOU UP BY RM74 MILLIONS)

AND THIS IS FOR QUARTER REPORT OF OCT TO DECEMBER 2019 (JAN TO MARCH 2020 WILL BE VERY BAD AS CORONAVIRUS WILL FURTHER IMPACT SALES OF FAMILY MART BUSINESS ESP IN SHOPPING MALLS)

IF THIS CONTINUES FRANCHISEES WILL DEFAULT ON RECEIVABLES

4) SO IF YOU TAKE OUT RM74 MILLIONS FROM RM76 MILLIONS REPORTED PROFIT THIS QUARTER QL ACTUALLY MADE IN TOTAL CASH IS ONLY A MERE RM2 MILLIONS

REALLY GRUESOME THAT QL HAS RM1 BILLIONS DEBT BUT A REAL NET CASH PROFIT OF ONLY RM2 MILLIONS

5) CALVIN ALREADY WARNED BEFORE AND NOW I WARN AGAIN

QL IS NOW TOTALLY BLOATED IN ITS SHARE PRICE

WITH HIGH DEBT COMES HIGH INTEREST COST JUST ONE QUARTER ALONE IS RM13 MILLIONS!!

WITH CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING FOOTFALL IN SHOPPING COMPLEXES QL INVENTORIES OF UNSOLD FISH, CHICKEN & OTHERS WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP

ITS SAVING GRACE FROM HIGH CPO & FERLITIZER IS ALSO A ONE OFF AS CRUDE OIL FALLING WILL DRAG DOWN CPO. VIRUS IN CHINA WILL SLOW DOWN FERTIZER USE IN DURAIN AND OIL PALM PLANTATION

WHILE ITS BUSINESS MIGHT COME TO A STAND STILL ITS DEBT LOAD OF RM1 BILLIONS WILL PILE UP

SO QL IS FIGHTING A VERY GRUESOME UPHILL BATTLE

WHERE IS BLIND 3iii? NEVER WARN SORCHAI HERE?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-02-28 00:51 | Report Abuse

QL AT RM8.30 IS AS BLOATED AS DLADY WHEN IT WAS RM76.00

QL BUSINESS LOOKS ON SURFACE GROWING

A DEEPER LOOK INTO ITS BALANCE SHEET & BUSINESS QUITE GRUESOME

1) REVENUE INCREASED BY 13% BUT OPERATING PROFIT DECRESED BY 2%

LIKE DLADY QL HAS TO WORKER HARDER DUE TO COMPETITION BUT PROFIT EVEN DOWN FURTHER DUE TO NO PRICING POWER

MYNEWS & 7 ELEVEN SELLING FOOD AT CHEAPER PRICES CAPPED QL FROM INCREASING ITS PRICES

2) ALREADY SO STRESSED BY HIGH TURNOVER WITH LESSER PROFIT NOW CORONAVIRUS IS IMPACTING ITS BUSINESS

SEE

B3 Prospects for the year ending 31st March 2020
Covid-19 is likely to impact Q4 performance, however the management will still strive to achieve double digit growth for FY2020 against FY2019.


3) THIS CORONAVIRUS ALREADY IMPACTED CASH FLOW OF NEW FAMILY MART FRANCHISE BUSINESS AS ITS RECEIVABLES INCREASED

Other receivables, assets and prepayment FROM RM106.493, MILLIONS TO RM180.968 MILLIONS (IOU UP BY RM74 MILLIONS)

AND THIS IS FOR QUARTER REPORT OF OCT TO DECEMBER 2019 (JAN TO MARCH 2020 WILL BE VERY BAD AS CORONAVIRUS WILL FURTHER IMPACT SALES OF FAMILY MART BUSINESS ESP IN SHOPPING MALLS)

IF THIS CONTINUES FRANCHISEES WILL DEFAULT ON RECEIVABLES

4) SO IF YOU TAKE OUT RM74 MILLIONS FROM RM76 MILLIONS REPORTED PROFIT THIS QUARTER QL ACTUALLY MADE IN TOTAL CASH IS ONLY A MERE RM2 MILLIONS

REALLY GRUESOME THAT QL HAS RM1 BILLIONS DEBT BUT A REAL NET CASH PROFIT OF ONLY RM2 MILLIONS

5) CALVIN ALREADY WARNED BEFORE AND NOW I WARN AGAIN

QL IS NOW TOTALLY BLOATED IN ITS SHARE PRICE

WITH HIGH DEBT COMES HIGH INTEREST COST JUST ONE QUARTER ALONE IS RM13 MILLIONS!!

WITH CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING FOOTFALL IN SHOPPING COMPLEXES QL INVENTORIES OF UNSOLD FISH, CHICKEN & OTHERS WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP

ITS SAVING GRACE FROM HIGH CPO & FERLITIZER IS ALSO A ONE OFF AS CRUDE OIL FALLING WILL DRAG DOWN CPO. VIRUS IN CHINA WILL SLOW DOWN FERTIZER USE IN DURAIN AND OIL PALM PLANTATION

WHILE ITS BUSINESS MIGHT COME TO A STAND STILL ITS DEBT LOAD OF RM1 BILLIONS WILL PILE UP

SO QL IS FIGHTING A VERY GRUESOME UPHILL BATTLE

WHERE IS BLIND 3iii? NEVER WARN SORCHAI HERE?

CALVIN ALREADY WARNED AND WARNED ABOUT FINANCIAL TSUNAMI

HIGHLY POPULAR 1.99 SHOP IN SINGAPORE FAILED BECAUSE OF SARS

WILL CORONAVIRUS BE THE UNDOING OF QL THRU ITS EXPANSION IN FAMILY MART BUSINESS IN A TERRIBLE TIME?

BLOATED WITH HIGH DEBT (JUST ONE QTR INTEREST IS RM13 MILLIONS)

PILING UP RECEIVABLES

BETTER SELL ALL QL AND RUN NOW!!

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-04 15:22 | Report Abuse

Monday 2/3/2020 initiated share averaging down at 5.2@ 580K shares.

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > 2020-03-04 23:33 | Report Abuse

Recording here for my own record.

>>>>

Posted by OTB > Mar 4, 2020 6:47 PM | Report Abuse

Dear DK66,

I wish to show you the below calculation how I can get RM 248 million.

The cumulative power sales of Vinh Tan 1 were 8.194 billion kwh based on annual 7,238 utilization hours.

Since Hai Duong power plant is the same spec as Vinh Tan 1, I will assume same cumulative power sales were 8.194 billion kwh.
Profit margin is USD 0.024 (2.4 USD cents).
USD to RM conversion is 4.20.
Jaks owns 30% stake.

Calculation
= 8,194 * 0.024 * 4.20 * 30% = RM 248 million.
This profit is tax free.
EPS = 248/651 = 0.38
If PER = 10, the target price is 3.80 in 2021.
If PER = 15, the target price is 5.70 in 2021.

Thank you.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-03-04 23:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > Mar 4, 2020 11:33 PM | Report Abuse

Recording here for my own record.
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there are consultants spend decades studying and advising on tarifs and power plants...

this stock market guy OTB simplifies it into 2 lines......

that is our OTB lah....only need to know his previous disasters and convoluted calculations at the height of the bubbles of Hengyuan and LionInd.............long time readers will know many many more disasters..............

Posted by OTB > 2020-03-05 00:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2020-03-05 00:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-03-05 00:06 | Report Abuse

aiyah., OTB

calling me a liar cannot cover your dirt lah..............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-03-05 00:12 | Report Abuse

OTB...people say politics before before principles , OTB, u do what? selling subscription services before principles?