Posted by Sslee > 2019-08-15 11:14 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
icon8888, what make you change your mind buying Pchem at 715 when recently you are saying waiting Pchem at 500. I had done my buying Pchem below 800 and now waiting for another batch below 700

Posted by stockraider > 2019-08-15 11:16 | Report Abuse

I think sticking with cash rich insas is much safer loh...!!

Posted by Sslee > Aug 15, 2019 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
icon8888, what make you change your mind buying Pchem at 715 when recently you are saying waiting Pchem at 500. I had done my buying Pchem below 800 and now waiting for another batch below 700

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-08-15 11:17 | Report Abuse

y Icon8888 > Aug 15, 2019 11:04 AM | Report Abuse

sifu qqq3 so geng,......
========

there is no sifu, its every man for himself................as long as one is involved in equities, there will be a huge range of outcomes.............


do not need whatever " inversion" to tell you, the world is in a mess.................

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 11:19 | Report Abuse

pchem at 5 was my sabotage

(pardon my England)

Posted by Sslee > Aug 15, 2019 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
icon8888, what make you change your mind buying Pchem at 715 when recently you are saying waiting Pchem at 500. I had done my buying Pchem below 800 and now waiting for another batch below 700

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 11:19 | Report Abuse

don't take me seriously 100% of the time

Posted by stockraider > 2019-08-15 11:21 | Report Abuse

sticking with index stock like pchem good option...but will not give u vast outperformance opportunity gain like bland and insas loh..!!

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 15, 2019 11:19 AM | Report Abuse

pchem at 5 was my sabotage

(pardon my England)

Posted by Sslee > Aug 15, 2019 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
icon8888, what make you change your mind buying Pchem at 715 when recently you are saying waiting Pchem at 500. I had done my buying Pchem below 800 and now waiting for another batch below 700

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 11:23 | Report Abuse

market uncertain, parking money with big cap is one way to be conservative

according to Howard Marks....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-08-15 11:32 | Report Abuse

sted by Icon8888 > Aug 15, 2019 11:23 AM | Report Abuse

market uncertain, parking money with big cap is one way to be conservative
============

then what about London biscuit....down 25% from cost..........its future nothing to do with recession, trade wars, stock market..............it is a PN 17 company and whether it will go bankrupt or alternatively, the bankers give them time to sort out their problems............and the share go back to 50 sen...............

If the fraud is any thing less than $ 100 million, the company will survive.................

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-08-15 11:43 | Report Abuse

contrarian shares.............Jaks, London Biscuits, Armada.....

good shares ....Serba

exotic share Hibiscus below $1..........


in view of what is happening in world stage....what to do with these shares?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-08-15 11:46 | Report Abuse

stock market....just treat it as hobby and past time............

don't take it too seriously...............

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-08-15 11:53 | Report Abuse

(S=QR) Philip > Aug 15, 2019 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

I wasn't as smart as KYY back then, and thought the end was near for Hong Kong.
==================================

KYY had a blessed life...........it cannot be copied or duplicated............

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-08-15 12:00 | Report Abuse

talking about HK......now that they have arrested several hundred protesters....the riots shall end starting NOW................

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-08-15 12:01 | Report Abuse

HK riots no more............then how? now what?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-08-15 12:23 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Aug 15, 2019 11:43 AM | Report Abuse X

contrarian shares.............Jaks, London Biscuits, Armada.....

=======

I not selling those....neither am I putting in more money.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-08-15 12:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 12:52 | Report Abuse

You are one walking around in London Shell building

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-08-15 12:54 | Report Abuse

Hi please not in my portfolio thread. I want to keep this one clean and constructive.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 12:55 | Report Abuse

Ok ok I will leave that cunt alone

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 12:55 | Report Abuse

For the moment

Posted by 3iii > 2019-08-15 12:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by lazycat > 2019-08-15 17:49 | Report Abuse

philip u dispose public bank shares is a good move , i assume u disposed around RM25?
if u din't , the outcome would be same like topglove , -18% :/

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 17:51 | Report Abuse

cunt

Posted by 3iii > Aug 15, 2019 12:59 PM | Report Abuse

Well, when he goes low, I stay high.

Good day to Mrs. icon8888.

Posted by No right Nor wrong Only to Win > 2019-08-15 18:10 | Report Abuse

Philip , out of 5
i give my support to you on yinson.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-08-15 18:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-08-15 19:45 | Report Abuse

Hi yes, I got lucky on that one. That's why it is good to review the investments you made as well as the ones you didn't make to know the total return. Yes I sold around 25.


>>>>>>>>
8/2019 12:59 PM

lazycat philip u dispose public bank shares is a good move , i assume u disposed around RM25?
if u din't , the outcome would be same like topglove , -18% :/

Posted by lazycat > 2019-08-15 21:38 | Report Abuse

i assumed the main reason u switch from pbbank to pchem is because u think pchem will provide better % return? any other reasons why u made the move? :p

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-08-16 07:02 | Report Abuse

The basic thought process was very simple. Public Bank is a very conservative business, and banking is a very tightly controlled industry, so it is very unlikely for pbb to expand to say Japan or Australia to do business. Meaning that it is very difficult to break into, but at the same time very clear on its growth plan.

PCHEM offers far higher returns ( especially with acquisitions of da Vinci and pic), also a similar stability and cash security ( market leader locally), but with increased risk ( explosion in PIC during commissioning).

Basically, in 5-10 years I see PCHEM revenue and net profit doubling, and I expect to see rm1-2 earnings per year, which means using their 50% payment policy I can get at least rm1 per share dividend yearly.

As PCHEM products is being used is not only olefin, but their target market is growing into fertilizers, skincare and aromatics and specialty chemicals, I think they are on a very nice track to grow into many new markets.

Especially with da Vinci the biggest thing holding them back before was capital. With huge pchem muscle behind them now, I think many interesting growth factors can happen.

>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip6/193465.jsp

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-08-21 08:32 | Report Abuse

The good thing about buying wonderful companies is the timer horizon. You see 18% drop, I see the price post split is same period 2 years ago is 2.81 with many cents of dividends. I kept buying during that quarter and built up my position this year to varying degrees of success. I probably won't be as successful as those able to buy wonderful stocks and at good timing like Warren buffet, but I'm just a simple salaryman working for the enjoyment of it. I'm still up long term with dividends buying more shares as time passes.

My personal opinion during uncertain times all businesses will have discount days, we will only regret when the price has gone up too late.

I think very few investors in this forum also bought yinson in bulk as I did.


>>>>>

lazycat philip u dispose public bank shares is a good move , i assume u disposed around RM25?
if u din't , the outcome would be same like topglove , -18% :/
15/08/2019 5:49 PM

Posted by lazycat > 2019-08-21 12:01 | Report Abuse

your broker commission rate is quite high, 0.31%?

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-08-21 16:29 | Report Abuse

No, I negotiated a special rate with minimum 1m of margin brokerage.

Posted by Jason Toshi Ho > 2019-09-21 08:22 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/225697.jsp

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-19 06:36 | Report Abuse

Bought more gkent, 50k shares at 0.96. dividend yield and share buyback (5% of nosh) is excellent while waiting for revenue realization from lrt3.

Posted by goldmind > 2019-12-22 21:18 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip. First, thank you for your sharing and as a young investor, I learn a lot from your sharing. I started to study Yinson after you've mentioned about it. I find Yinson is attractive because next year earnings are likely to be above RM400 million, which is double of previous years of earnings. I was thinking whether I should withdraw my FD and buy into Yinson at this point of time? Can I have your advice please, thank you very much!

Posted by goldmind > 2019-12-22 21:19 | Report Abuse

also below link is the latest corporate presentation of Yinson. I would love to share with you, please take a look.

https://www.insage.com.my/Upload/Docs/YINSON/Sept%2019%20Yinson%20Investor%20Presentation%20(FINAL)a.pdf#view=Full

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-22 22:52 | Report Abuse

The question of investing or not totally depends on your condition. How much you have, how badly can you handle volatility, and how long you are willing to wait to gain from your investment.

As many have pointed out, yinson is a brilliant company.

But whether or not it becomes a brilliant investment depends on how long you are willing to wait for your share price to go up.

In the beginning of the year, yinson dropped from 5.15 to rm 4, and now it has climbed to 7.2 and dropped to 6.4.

Do you have the confidence and willpower to ride this volatility for 3-4 years? Can you wait until delivery and commissioning of the Brazil tender in 2023 while the share price stagnates and other investors lose confidence?

If you can last that long with a steady heart? I can practically guarantee yinson will be a great investment in the long term 5+ years.

If your investing horizon is 3 months to 1 year.... Then I'd advise you to keep the money in FD, and test the waters with money you can afford to lose and sleep well at night.

The true challenge in investing is not in what company you buy, it is in how well you can stand the volatility and waves.

Posted by tracy92 > 2019-12-22 23:56 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip, I have been investing for 4 years and average return every year is 30%. Assume I have RM1 million now, and I’m 28 years old, how would u advise me for asset allocation ( % in stocks, % in fd), how would u advise me if I were your son?

Also, if I invest RM1 million in stocks, how many stocks should I own optimally in your opinion? Is it wise to put more than 60% of my money in one stock say Yinson? Or better buy a few and dont put most money in one basket? I intend to buy good quality stocks like Maybank, Yinson, Topglov, GENM. pls advise thank you.

Posted by tracy92 > 2019-12-23 00:00 | Report Abuse

Also, another question is if you were 28 years old now and u have RM1 million. What stocks will you buy today and how many % in each of them? Thank you very much Philip.

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-23 00:12 | Report Abuse

Hi Tracy92.

If you have been investing for 4 years and your average return per year is 30%, then I have no place to advise you.

You already seen to know exactly what you are doing and my advise is to continue what you are doing right now.

You seem to be very good at investing already I might add, far better than my returns when I was 28.

Everybody has different companies and skills in their repertoire.

I would suggest you stick to companies that you are more familiar with.

Don't trust any sifu that tells you to buy this stock or that stock.

Instead, try to find out the reasoning behind their stock pick, and best of all get their stock portfolio selections returns so you can see how good their stock picking really is.

In the end, that's why everyone uses Warren buffet as an example. You can chart his stock Holdings, purchase and sales every year from 1976 to 2019, and see clearly his long term results.

Never trust any sifu that says he knows the way, but doesn't have the 10 year stock returns as evidence and proof.

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-23 00:23 | Report Abuse

Ray Dalio Has a good YouTube video on the concept of diversification.


https://youtu.be/Nu4lHaSh7D4

It all comes down to how much you think you know a company, and how much you are willing to admit is not within your confidence.

The higher the confidence. The lower the diversification needed.

For example, if you knew the long term returns of ASB over ten years was 8%, you could conceivably put 1000000% of your networh, borrow to the hilt at 7% and invest in ASB long term.

When Warren buffet bought preferred shares in BAC (5 billion), not only was he confident that in the long run the share price will go up, but he has that 7% dividend to pay him to wait.

My advice is: be realistic and clear on how well you know the future returns of a stock before you commit huge amounts of money on it.

You can try what I did, put some money into it, and each quarter after the report is out re-evaluate the business. If it still fits your growth projections, then slowly add more. In the long run the profit is lower than dumping all your money in one go, but the risk and clarity should help make less bad decisions.

Everyone makes bad decisions, even Warren buffet.

>>>>>>

Also, if I invest RM1 million in stocks, how many stocks should I own optimally in your opinion? Is it wise to put more than 60% of my money in one stock say Yinson?

Posted by Philip Greta > 2020-01-08 15:17 | Report Abuse

I have added additional 1 million shares in pledged securities for gkent, now becoming top 30 shareholders for GKENT. As this will be my maximum exposure for the business as it is at the lowest possible risk position now for the returns and earnings potential, I believe the risk is too low not to take advantage. I am expecting a 6 cent dividend for the year, and increased dividends as the earnings from lrt3 start to become reflected in the share price.

Posted by Joon Chan > 2020-01-21 01:45 | Report Abuse

Philip,

PCHEM has obvious potential and growth, and will be a giant - i see that in a timeframe of 3-5 years.

The analysts and fund managers, take a QoQ view, and price securities- just for the next 1yr or 1.5yr max. Hence a rally occurs close to earnings, or a little after. PCHEM 2019 Q4 results has a high certainty of being called an "upset", where as maybe in Q1 2020 it'll be more mindblowing - with better product prices + PIC contribution.

Knowing that it's probable the price will trend down significantly in the coming quarter, why would one not sell now, and pick up the position again cheaper later?

I've also noticed, that PCHEM, being a big KLCI index stock, tends to just move in sync with the index, in 1-2 weeks post Qtr earnings. It really only pulls away up & down from the KLCI post Q earnings (i guess that's how it outperforms the index)

Beta is 0.89 (haha makes sense since the index has been flat..)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-01-21 06:19 | Report Abuse

After a series of bad quarters, Philips is much much more humble nowadays

No more “I hope you learn something (from me) today” after every comment

So refreshing

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-01-21 06:43 | Report Abuse

Hopefully you learned more about being humble from me I hope? At least you also stopped buying stocks with over hand behind the wheel and the other frantically pressing the buy button on your phone. Which is good, when discount day comes, just buy more.

I noticed one thing, many people try to time the bottom and buy the lows.

You can't. By the time you realize it, the lows will be over and the path of recovery begins. There only thing you can do is value a company to its intrinsic value and buy based on your valuation of it.

Most individuals look at intrinsic value as net assets and liquidation cost. I try to look at my intrinsic value as the it's enterprise value in 5 years time.

Pchem at these prices are a huge deal. Buy more.
George Kent is selling below net assets. For a profitable company with a huge guaranteed order book. So I buy more.

Posted by stkstudent > 2020-01-21 07:20 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, still waiting for sifu to share the prospects of your strong recommendation, (your soulmate Mr PaulNewman also)
(pls dont misunderstand, I stay in West Malaysia, happen to see this post this morning)


@Icon8888, you expect a +ve return on ABMB by end of this yr ?



Icon8888 it is a golden opportunity to buy

you can be negative and bitch non stop, or you can jump on the opportunity to benefit yourself

time will tell who is right who is wrong
20/01/2020 9:00 AM

Posted by Joon Chan > 2020-01-21 20:05 | Report Abuse

First and foremost, valuation based fundamentals is the leading criteria, from a macro view worldly -> industry -> regionally local -> company.

Without fundamentals, there won't be earnings growth, and earnings drive price x volume action by institutions, and we are swimming in a big sea, with prices set by institutions. They kind of have to act in very certain ways, they cant ignore a recent earnings drop or growth in a quarter. Nor transact at depressed prices without i assume a host of investment committee etc..

"I noticed one thing, many people try to time the bottom and buy the lows.
You can't. By the time you realize it, the lows will be over and the path of recovery begins. There only thing you can do is value a company to its intrinsic value and buy based on your valuation of it."

That's the thing. I don't know if it's safe to say that you can't. Now with big-data ready accessible, and amazingly easy ways to chart,correlate, visualize the effects of volume ,price, events , and time.

I've never been a sucker for technical trading as its commonly known, with bollinger bands, bollinger rubbber band, head and shoulders line, monkey swing breakout? what?

But i cannot deny indicators based on prices & volume (i.e converting high-low-vwap-close prices in a factor).
Next, buy/sell volume relative to past periods (i.e Elliott waves, buyvalue , sellvalue).

They both tell you very objectively prices are bidding high, and volumes are increasing.

Timing it to an hourly interval vs a daily/weekly interval has a huge difference! Hourly or minutely intervals have too much noise, and the pips in between too small to make a profit.

On larger small caps with volume, or midcaps and above, the accuracy in indicating a bull trend in a stock at daily interval 80%, on a 5day interval 90%. A sell trend, well it doesn't capture the first drop well, as its knee jerk, but the ongoing downtrend, quite well. With such intervals, and sensitivity, it's not worth holding on on a strong signal, because if it's a false signal, okay maybe might cost 1% more to enter in. But if it's right, wow - thats a 10-20% save. And on a buy trend...wow.

To get it really good, one can customize the indicators to each stock's profile. It's quite clear on uncovering, what's the PE threshold before buying demand slows down, what's the timeframe a stock is likely to satay in an overbought position, what's the threshold for profit-taking in the stock,

I've been observing, testing, and trading based on this, of course around stocks & positions that one can sleep well at night holding, on data from daily intervals, so maybe 1-2 decisions per week. (i tried contra trading, omg, how do you live day in day out, i was broken in 2 weeks)

What I will now do is to pick 5 core stocks, that have various earning quarters, so i can cycle between them, and concentrate leverage per quarter per stock, when the bull trend is indicated & other sub-indicators/sanity tests checks out. I will get into short FKLI contracts for just the week or month, so i won't get bankrupted if there is market crazy. And on any other week, out of the 5, one or two might trend opposite ways, or trend stronger than the others, so i just shift them around and shift them back. Or i'll contra trade a size able amount, and if it doesn't work nicely within the 2 days, i can sell temporarily to pick-up. Sometimes a call warrant also makes sense..

Staying invested the whole time is key, all the little bonuses add up.


Okay transaction costs are painful, but... Rakuten charges RM100 per day CAPPED. If i move a million ringgit position, i pay RM10 for a CDS transfer, do the trade, and bring it back into my margin account. =D

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-01-22 16:50 | Report Abuse

Hi joon, your method sounds very complicated and untested. I was a big fan of LTCM back in the day, back when all the statisticians and mathematicians were using big data to drive investment philosophies. I believe it doesn't work. Maybe you can prove me wrong one day.

Posted by Joon Chan > 2020-01-22 20:41 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip,

Hmm. Maybe i could shoot you an email?

For privacy , do send me an email to my spare email address : skepzz@gmail.com

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-01-28 11:10 | Report Abuse

Topglove is doing well in my portfolio it has recovered far faster than I expected. However I believe this is a kneejerk reaction due to the coronavirus. But as the earnings results stabilise, which it will sooner or later, and growth comes in from the medical side, I believe topglove will have a good few years now to run.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-31 17:00 | Report Abuse

Not buying anymore PCHEM ah.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-06 18:12 | Report Abuse

Of course I did, at 6.30.