Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-08 18:18 | Report Abuse

Excellent article.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-08 18:37 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing and educating me to be a better investor.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-08 18:56 | Report Abuse

I see similiarity between yinson & london loh....!!

If u look carefully Yinson, u see good profit of yinson is not linked to its cash generation but instead create huge debt mah...!!

Posted by soojinhou > 2019-07-08 19:02 | Report Abuse

KC great example of lemon!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-08 19:05 | Report Abuse

not simply wrong business model

I believe fraud involved

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-08 19:10 | Report Abuse

Ok stockraider you are right! Would you like to short yinson to prove your point?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-08 19:12 | Report Abuse

I believe they deliberately geared up to flow cash out, all those Capex etc over the years.

basically siphon money from the banks that lend them

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-08 19:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2019-07-08 19:13 | Report Abuse

may be got friend in the bank...like ahjib 1MDB style

Posted by VenFx > 2019-07-08 19:54 | Report Abuse

Very good fraud dissection for LBI .
Celaka 老千股

Posted by miker > 2019-07-08 20:21 | Report Abuse

Don't worry, london to holland not far away....kikiki

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-08 20:29 | Report Abuse

Correctloh SC should start investigating London for Security Law Breaches loh...!!

Do not let the conman director escape from the Hook loh...!!

Teach them a lesson mah.....!!

Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 8, 2019 7:12 PM | Report Abuse

I believe they deliberately geared up to flow cash out, all those Capex etc over the years.

basically siphon money from the banks that lend them

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-08 20:31 | Report Abuse

OH GOSH! YOU NEVER HEARD OF IDSS?

BUT TRUE ALSO LA, BETTER DON'T SHORT. IT IS ONLY FOR EXPERIENCED INVESTORS.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 8, 2019 7:13 PM | Report Abuse

Msia mkt don allow u to short mah, don be sochai lah...!!

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > Jul 8, 2019 7:10 PM | Report Abuse

Ok stockraider you are right! Would you like to short yinson to prove your point?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-08 20:54 | Report Abuse

London not allow idss mah...!!

Posted by dragonslayer > Jul 8, 2019 8:33 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyo...really going holland kah..you all make it faster to reach holland...so bad..lol...aiyoyo...kikiki


dragonslayer
9225 posts
Posted by dragonslayer > Jul 8, 2019 8:46 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyo..Tibet Monk not sure got IDSS...cannot be lah...last time he promoting sapnrg..everyday forum talked about IDSS mah...lol...aiyoyo...kikiki

Posted by jackfruit > 2019-07-08 21:16 | Report Abuse

Hahaha khee san also going holland leh...

Posted by moneypedia > 2019-07-08 21:17 | Report Abuse

london biscuit fallin down fallin dow falin doer...london biscuit fallin down lalalalalaaaa

Posted by sense maker > 2019-07-08 21:26 | Report Abuse

Ambik duit keluar mainly through purchase of equipment. It has been very obvious for decades.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-08 21:33 | Report Abuse

I thought you say YINSON got problem?

>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 8, 2019 8:54 PM | Report Abuse

London not allow idss mah...!!

Posted by king36 > 2019-07-08 21:50 | Report Abuse

Dear KC,
Good Article.
Did u give a wrong quarterly in Table 3. It is similar to Cash Flow in Table 2.
I like to see the correct one as I am still learning.
Thank you.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-08 21:54 | Report Abuse

London need 5 to 10 yrs b4 itcollapse, I think yinson will also need 5 to 10 yrs mah....!!

How to short yinson leh ??
U think jual sayur meh....!!

Use ur brain & think lah....!!

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > Jul 8, 2019 9:33 PM | Report Abuse

I thought you say YINSON got problem?

>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 8, 2019 8:54 PM | Report Abuse

London not allow idss mah...!!

Posted by anticonman > 2019-07-08 21:55 | Report Abuse

Pity those conned by QR.

Posted by 7300 > 2019-07-08 22:05 | Report Abuse

German Deutche bank start present for Maddump....DJ lousai cycle commence!!

Posted by 7300 > 2019-07-08 22:10 | Report Abuse

Very soon 1 gm of gold can buy 1 truck of soya bean.

Posted by miker > 2019-07-08 22:33 | Report Abuse

Purchase equipment every years also from BoD cronies companies...kikikikiki...all conned...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-07-09 05:14 | Report Abuse

Posted by king36 > Jul 8, 2019 9:50 PM | Report Abuse
Dear KC,
Good Article.
Did u give a wrong quarterly in Table 3. It is similar to Cash Flow in Table 2.
I like to see the correct one as I am still learning.
Thank you.

Thanks for the comments. The mistake has been corrected in the post.
Look at the table. a perfect "Golden Rule" stock.

Posted by king36 > 2019-07-09 06:54 | Report Abuse

Thank you, KC.

Posted by pjseow > 2019-07-09 07:06 | Report Abuse

KC ,thanks again for the good article highliting and reminding investors of the danger of merely looking at earning per share without looking at the details especially the FCF. I lost 60k about 15 years ago on megan media. The story.is almost the same as London.Biscuits. Megan reported improving eps every qtrs but its receivables almost went up every qtr. Then one day megan went into liquidity problem. Finally,it went bust. During investigation ,it was found that the customer which did not pay megan is related to megan director.

Posted by pjseow > 2019-07-09 07:06 | Report Abuse

KC ,thanks again for the good article highliting and reminding investors of the danger of merely looking at earning per share without looking at the details especially the FCF. I lost 60k about 15 years ago on megan media. The story.is almost the same as London.Biscuits. Megan reported improving eps every qtrs but its receivables almost went up every qtr. Then one day megan went into liquidity problem. Finally,it went bust. During investigation ,it was found that the customer which did not pay megan is related to megan director.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-09 07:12 | Report Abuse

Good one pjseow, I realized that with Sendai as well, where it's big order came from it's own CEO to build up the jack ship. Huge receivables from middle East but unable to collect causing huge liquidity problems.

That is why I really hope investors don't just look at simple metrics like NTA and p/e screen for low and buy. When there is a low price, you must always step carefully and analyze why the market put such a low price to the stock.

It could be lack of coverage.
It could be litigation.
It could be debt and interest coverage.
It could be not paying customers.

All of these are not covered in PE.

One should always exercise thinking like an owner trying to buy over a new business when buying stocks. Try to find out the competitive advantage, try to find out the risks.

Most of all, never just rely on one or two metrics and declare that this is a good business to buy.

Posted by bgt9963 > 2019-07-09 07:16 | Report Abuse

In the share market...it’s a dog eats dog world...

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-09 07:55 | Report Abuse

https://www.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/NCRJ/article/view/25093/21369

Transmile revisited.

The same red flags in Transmile can be seen in Lonbisc.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-07-09 08:01 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/214178.jsp
My comment
Thank you

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-09 08:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-09 08:08 | Report Abuse

>>>>

(US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip Good one pjseow, I realized that with Sendai as well, where it's big order came from it's own CEO to build up the jack ship. Huge receivables from middle East but unable to collect causing huge liquidity problems.

That is why I really hope investors don't just look at simple metrics like NTA and p/e screen for low and buy. When there is a low price, you must always step carefully and analyze why the market put such a low price to the stock.

It could be lack of coverage.
It could be litigation.
It could be debt and interest coverage.
It could be not paying customers.

All of these are not covered in PE.

One should always exercise thinking like an owner trying to buy over a new business when buying stocks. Try to find out the competitive advantage, try to find out the risks.

Most of all, never just rely on one or two metrics and declare that this is a good business to buy.
09/07/2019 7:12 AM

>>>>



Philip is kind to highlight on this. Sorcai raider please learn from Philip and stop pushing the big troll-ey with bad brakes (margin of safety). Sit down and think for a year and then come back reformed. :-)

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-09 08:11 | Report Abuse

I learned this fact far too late many many years ago. This was more than 13 years ago I learnt this bitter lesson.

All I can say is: to the depths of hell be all the directors of transmile. Their profit at my cost.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by 3iii > Jul 9, 2019 8:02 AM | Report Abuse

Case study: Transmile

Due care

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-09 08:19 | Report Abuse

Sadly, these lessons need to be undergone before we realize the cost of not looking to the downsides first.

Icon8888 always says I think I am right and I am never wrong.

The fact is I made so many horrible investments in renong, transmile and aokam that I am so scared of being wrong that I look ten times at a rock before I even consider buying, knowing that one mistake will set me back 10 years.

It is far far more important to NOT lose money than it is to MAKE huge money.

Better by far to stay away from uncertain investments than it is to make small bets on variables.

You never know when you need to deploy capital on the sure thing.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-09 08:22 | Report Abuse

Red flags

I have always wondered why Poh Kong is trading at very low PE.

A few year back, I spent some time to understand its finances.

I checked its balance sheet. Wow, its market cap was lower than its NCAV Unbelievable, a Ben Graham's type of undervalued stock.

Then, I checked its FCF. Well, its FCF yield was below the risk free bank deposit rate.

Thus, the market had priced Poh Kong appropriately at a low PE of 3 to 5.

Buffett is right. The value of an asset is the discounted value of all its future cash flows.

Those who use P/E (stupid raider#) or P/BV (not so smart Calvin#) in isolation should understand why they faced so much headwinds from the few in this forum

# on a less serious note, poking

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-09 08:27 | Report Abuse

Philip

Thanks for sharing your investing journey.

I was lucky in my early years of investing. I was guided. I have a mentor, an excellent one, who himself has made millions in the stock market.

Over the years, I have acquired the knowledge that is safe (most important) and rewarding (comes naturally after risk is minimized). Investing is a journey that one can carry on as long as one's mental capacity is still intact.

Your own mistakes have been a painful period for you but you are now over this. With the right philosophy, investing in the market is actually extremely safe and profitable, for those who know what they are doing.

Regards



3iii

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-09 08:35 | Report Abuse

Using PE and PB as an all consuming metric was something I tried back in the 90s and Y2K.

Losing 200k back then ( almost 20 years now) set me back 10 years, a hole which I would never have come out of without a lot of hard work and sacrifice ( and luck).

Never again.

Always look at a business in totality like an owner.

Ask where the cash is coming from, how it is growing, and how debt is serviced. Is there management responsible? PE does not tell you this.

Is the revenues and earnings growing organically? Most of all, take a good long look at assets.

If me as a director were to buy an equipment/property/@ business (vigcash,numoni etc) and tell everyone it is an asset because I gave someone money for it ( valuation is from the other party) but that "asset" is losing money for me, I should treat it more as a liability instead.

For equipment we can amortize and depreciate. But undeveloped land also has a opportunity cost, same as a business.

My very first boss told me a very wise saying I remember until today.

If your business is not earning money, don't call it a business. It is a donation.

I keep hoping sslee and raider realizes this and thinks deeper on why his INSAS is always permanently valued so low. But I realize they still think of stocks as accounting paper, and not like how a boss would think when acquiring a company.

Posted by king36 > 2019-07-09 08:50 | Report Abuse

I see, "Look at the table. a perfect "Golden Rule" stock."

Qtrs results increasing buy No Dv paying!

We must be very careful of such stks.

Good tip, KC. Thanks again.

Posted by ks55 > 2019-07-09 08:56 | Report Abuse

Anyone wishes to make comment on Parkson and Lion Industries?

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-07-09 08:59 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Jul 9, 2019 7:55 AM | Report Abuse

https://www.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/NCRJ/article/view/25093/21369

Transmile revisited.

The same red flags in Transmile can be seen in Lonbisc.

Not really, the modus operandi is more similar to Megan Media...keep on buying new equipment n machinery

Posted by ks55 > 2019-07-09 09:03 | Report Abuse

Seems many pensioners were conned in shares belong to WC.
From Amsteel Corp Bhd, to Lion Corp, to Lion Diversified, PRA, PRGL, Lion Indusries, Lion Forest, and Parkson Holding.

You may be savior if you can warn them much earlier before these stocks placed under PN17.

Believe kelvintaneng can act as a savior just like how Jesus Christ save him as wreck.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-07-09 09:07 | Report Abuse

KS55,

Nobody conned them. Those are industries that whose fundamentals were destroyed.

You can barely think of one company in those industries making above average profits.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-07-09 09:10 | Report Abuse

If there's one thing i learn from this article, i must add one more step to my own analysis.

5-10 year cashflows.

I do study it, but normally, its just a quick look, i don't list them all out like this.

Thanks KC.

Posted by kenie > 2019-07-09 09:22 | Report Abuse

cash flow 8.84 millions
debt 354.93 millions
current liabilities 320.38 millions

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-09 09:23 | Report Abuse

this is a fraud case

no competent CEO will gear up like this


Posted by kenie > Jul 9, 2019 9:22 AM | Report Abuse

cash flow 8.84 millions
debt 354.93 millions
current liabilities 320.38 millions

Posted by ks55 > 2019-07-09 09:25 | Report Abuse

Buy into stocks only if you think the controlling shareholders/Directors are trustworthy.

Certain characters should be avoided at all cost.
The list as follow:-
1.
2.
3.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-09 09:32 | Report Abuse

This shows how young choivo is. Up until 2013, parkson was a wonderful source of revenue, profits and dividends that you would not believe.

But back in 2009, who would have invested in Alibaba and Amazon?

It goes to show if you don't keep an eye on your investments every quarter and think like an owner, parkson becomes a more and more exciting deep value investment with wonderful assets and cash, even as the long term prospects start shrinking from 2013 onwards.

When facing low PE ratios and enticing asset values, always ask the question why? Instead of answering worth buy.

>>>>>>>>>>

You can barely think of one company in those industries making above average profits.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-09 09:36 | Report Abuse

Not meant to be poking, but legitimate discussion. Armada gearing up to win all those contracts back then was a major factor in me not investing in the stock.

Raider is definitely right though, it was self inflicted.

In London case it is definitely fraud.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 9, 2019 9:23 AM | Report Abuse

this is a fraud case

no competent CEO will gear up like this