Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-06-02 19:21 | Report Abuse

3rd Q projection. Revenue 70m, operating income @ 16% of revenue 11m. expect small forex gains from < Rm 3.7 for April and May. Net forex gain 2m. - finance cost 1m + 1m taxation credit

13m profit/270418065 = 4.8cent EPS, - 20% for variance/inaccuracy still have 3.8 cent. Assume a further discount of 30%, also EPS of 2.7 cent is achievable..

Hope I'm not completely wrong ba....

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-23 14:57 | Report Abuse

Weird... someone actually paid RM1.44 to convert Notion WarrantA to share??? WTF?
Small amount la, just 200 units... but still... really weird. lol.
Same with WarrantB too.... really really weird. Someone too rich to convert rather than to buy from open market?

Types of corporate proposal Exercise of Warrants
Details of corporate proposal Conversion of Warrants-A to Ordinary Shares
No. of shares issued under this corporate proposal 200
Issue price per share ($$) Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) 1.4400
Par Value ($$) Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) 0.500


Involve issuance of new type/class of securities ? No
Types of corporate proposal Exercise of Warrants
Details of corporate proposal Conversion of Warrants-B to Ordinary Shares
No. of shares issued under this corporate proposal 126
Issue price per share ($$) Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) 1.0000
Par Value ($$) Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) 0.500

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-23 17:26 | Report Abuse

hi val-elta. some info for u. about the phone coz i aware u didnt manage to find it.

https://www.facebook.com/TrendiGlobal
http://www.trendi.co/

u have a lot of notion?

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-23 17:36 | Report Abuse

maybe is a good thing. total amount 414 =)
look into this link, dont worry, i think no virus or spyware.
http://sacredscribesangelnumbers.blogspot.sg/2011/08/angel-number-414.html
hope good results coming soon =)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-24 11:35 | Report Abuse

Yeah, I did found out about the trendi site... at 1st I think the phone business is doomed to fail. LOL!
After monitoring their strategy, and also they're selling it regionally.....
I upgrade their phone business from 100% fail, to 75% fail ba.

Yeah, I'm still averaging down here n then when possible :P

I still think they have a good core business, it's just that their 'new businesses, AHEM Silver Mine' that concerns me...

Their core CNC business, actually should still have a lot of room to grow/expand. There's a lot of products that those CNC machines can be used to make.
Aerospace should be a priority that they should enter, we heard TCF mention about this couple years back then, but wonder what happened to it :(

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-24 11:37 | Report Abuse

Technical/Chart speak: Seems like accumulation is happening, 38-40 range. 40 cent volume is good for the past week. Maybe accumulation happening prior to quarter result announcement around 18th August.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-24 11:45 | Report Abuse

CAPEX to setup their phone business, should be around 250k I believe. FB site, website and an initial 1k phone order. Just selling it online, they may just hire an additional staff to check the FB etc, but most likely, I think they will reuse existing staff to monitor the FB/update.

OPEX for phone business must be below 2k for the phone business to be viable. Otherwise all phone sales profit will just be sufficient to cover the OPEX.

For their phone business to be profitable.
1) Opex must be <1k (meaning no new staff hired just for the phone business)
2) Sales... Mmm 100 phones a month.

I will still rate their phone business as tough, and again will still brand that as an eventual failure. Even if it's successful, profit contribution should be marginal after deducting OPEX.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-24 14:27 | Report Abuse

To share with u... coz u been generous in sharing sincerely.

The RM14.7 millions mine investment in Australia is considered loss entirely. BUT it had been fully written off in FY14. U no need to worry about it. U may look into their 2014 AR, page 5 and 61.

The phone business is jz a small attempt. It's not a big deal they make it or not. Won't contribute big gain or loss. I think no need to care about it. Phone glass is still in R&D, also neglect-able.

To condemn.. I think the CFO director Jerry has proven himself incompetent. He and the trash investment division have made many big investment mistakes i.e. in investing the Australia's Alcyone Resources Ltd and hedging the USD in wrong trend. I hope the other directors are and will be more cautious with their incompetent CFO and they should never forget that.

I agree with u that their core business possibly is good enough and they should focus more in improving the efficiently, margin, competency and acquiring more business. Which I believe they are doing so from the recent Q results notes, AR statements and media release. I think they've learned the lesson and no longer diving into investment/field that they are in-expertise, and only make reasonable capex/opex investment and exploration.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-24 14:35 | Report Abuse

i got some @37-38 and will only add around the price..

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-07-24 15:05 | Report Abuse

Judging from many poor cases either in plant's operation such as flood, fire, loss in currency, lousy performance on camera, or investment on silver and now going into the non-relevant mobile phone biz, the BOD and senior mgt team are undisputedly incompetent. All players are competing in a leveled field, while other players are making good profits for the last couple booming years but Ntion was making loses continuously, their incompetency is too obvious to ignore. Today, I can say they are lousy and incompetent; hopefully I will not say they are conman tomorrow.
• I am a stupid small shareholder since 2006.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-07-24 15:12 | Report Abuse

Thks anonymousinvestor and Val-Elta for your good sharing.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-24 15:44 | Report Abuse

Forex hedge is fine if they hedge for 1 year of their revenue in USD, but the amount is insane, their hedge is like 500 million at its peak, iirc? it's like gambling d. Aih.
We want the co to be profitable from their business, not for them to speculate on the forex... But overall, across the years, I think their forex gain cancelled out their losses...
Also, if not for the oil price crash, they may actually escape and the forex won't lost so much.

Come to speak of silver, actually silver and USD hedge is the same direction..... as we know, gold/silver gains when USD drops. Since they already hedged on USD weakening, buying the silver business is a further 'bet' on USD weakness. That's why they got wiped out when USD strengthen.

Where was the internal risk control?
1) Risk of preventing a massive hedge position from being taken, literally forming a 4th pillar of 'notion business' - forex betting.
2) Risk of hedging/betting everything in the same direction. To me, silver price and usd weakness moves in tandem. The forex already hedge on USD weakness. Buying silver, is again a similar hedge on USD weakness. Silver falls, when USD gains..

So there is this concern on their business.
Granted the oil price drop literally caught everyone by surprise, and 1mdb doesn't help the forex too... Anyway, I think the worst is over, unless they go and buy 10 million worth of HPs and can't sell. LOL.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-24 16:00 | Report Abuse

bsngpg - I think we need to be objective in analyzing a business.
1) flood is not in their control, and it did brought in a lot of HDD revenue at that time, so flood was beneficial to notion.
2) Forex loss. Overall, they did gain initially on forex hedge, but from my last estimate, I think they broke even, or didn't lose/gain too much either direction? as i typed b4 reading ur post, oil price drop, and 1mdb really killed RM. And AirAsia/AAX has a big forex position too. Decision to hedge is fine, but I disagree on the AMOUNT of hedge they took.. it's really insane amount.
3) camera, again can't blame that too much. We need to assess objectively, they moved from HDD > CAMERA business and it was a good decision for a few years. And we can see they're entering Automotive now. They are responding to market trend, although they maybe a bit slower than usual. I think partly it's because they want to maintain their higher profit margin. Therefore they can't gain new customers as easy as other business I think. Even now, Notion's operating margin is pretty good at 15%+ IIRC... compare that to JCY's 7% margin for instance. If notion throw price, I think they could easier get new customer. But that may not be what we want as well..
4) Yes, agree on Silver, it's a bad call because silver n USD is hedged in same direction as I posted in detail just now.
5) Phone business... well, initially I would say it's 100% failure, but I'm a bit more optimistic now. LOL, as mentioned I rate it as 75% failure rate... I think their strategy at least in marketing the HP is good, and the cost price of the phone is low. So overall at worst, we can expect a one off writeoff of 250k. As long as they don't incur additional OPEX by hiring big sales team etc... then it should be fine.

Granted, we are no multi million business chairman/BOD... so, I can only hope they are able to execute on their business.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-24 16:17 | Report Abuse

don't give up on them.. they will recover i think. and if they start to turn black, depends to the results, and if u think they can sustain it, maybe u can consider dont simply sell it and aim higher. barring unforseen economy uncertainties though. (but jz my personal opinion only). so hope u will manage to recover ur loss and make some profit.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-24 16:20 | Report Abuse

Yupe, reason why I'm still holding, we can do a quick projection of their next Q's EPS. If you exclude last Q's forex losses, assuming their revenue and margin is similar, they can be profitable back very fast.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-24 16:21 | Report Abuse

be patient =)

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-07-24 17:42 | Report Abuse

Thks the above two gentlemen again.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-07-24 17:46 | Report Abuse

It has been almost 10 years I trusted this stupid group of management and am still stupidly trusting them with my size able amount of hard earned money. How many 10 years do we have? Thus I think I deserve some privilege to grumble here, do you think so?

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-07-24 17:54 | Report Abuse

bsngpg, you also buy this poor losing $$ company.....

I cut early early ago.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-07-24 21:49 | Report Abuse

I thought I have spotted a great potential small cap company and putting in a lot of money many years ago. I naively keep it for very long term till today. And I am losing big like hell. There is no way for me to recover anymore unless it behaves like DSonic one day and I still naively keep it for another 10 years.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-25 15:02 | Report Abuse

Hi Val-Elta, I wonder if u do some studies on their products' raw material cost. And if u do, u mind to share? I always wonder how's their margin being affected as metals' prices are dropping sharply over the year. I suppose it's a good thing, but wondering is there any material or significant effect.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-26 17:46 | Report Abuse

Can't really say much on their raw material cost. Their financial/annual reports don't really break down their cost of sales. Like for example, in the 2nd Q vs 1st Q results, there was a significant increase in Cost Of Sales.

1st Q revenue 58.2mil
Cost of sales 43.4mil

2nd Q revenue 64mil
Cost of Sales 53.8mil

Q over Q comparison, it seems nonsense right? COS increased by 10m when revenue only increased by 6m

Digging further in, if you review Cash Flow.. we can see a 7.4m Purchase of Property, plant and equipment...
Seems like the 7.4m is included into the Cost of Sales figure as well.

If need to guestimate.
I would say out of the 53m cost of sales, material cost should be about 40-50% of it? YOY metals dropped abt 20%.. so assuming notion can benefit from this, that translate to about 4 million gain per Q.
20% of 20million raw material costs.

But as I was from manufacturing previously, some vendors have a very tight control on their supplier's margin, even going into knowing exactly how much each BOM costs, and they will negotiate and give x% of profit to their suppliers... if this is the case, material movement cost wont effect Notion. Which I don't think is the case, since I remember reading Notion used to hedge on aluminium as well..

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-26 19:33 | Report Abuse

Thanks Val-Elta. U looked into every detail =)

I was wondering behind their operation, are they really enjoying the cheaper metal price to find out whether the decreasing metal price trend is favorable to them. After considering the factors, I believe they should be moderately enjoying the cheaper metal price and it should be favorable to them.

HOWEVER, it doesn't matter and it's neglect-able for now, as long as Notion can't improve the efficiency of their operation to satisfy their customers requests. As currently their customers product requests' are stringent and I believe it increases the cost of sales (u can look into AR, which was highlighted in the chairman statements). I don't rule out the possibility that this is the reason behind the higher cost of sales. But you are possibly right. I also have thought of it as u, and hope that's part of the reasons. Wink wink ;) But overall, looks like issues from the customers are limiting their margin.

Jz saying, if Notion manage to improve the efficiency, I believe the profit will be better with higher margin. Though I think it's not easy.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-26 21:13 | Report Abuse

Yeah, lets hope so.
Quality issues is internal, and I'm quite surprised if they didn't solve it faster, since it's something under their control... Either buy better machines, replace the QA manager, change supplier if the issue is from supplier material side.

Eagerly awaiting next Q's results over the next 2 weeks... :)

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-07-26 21:16 | Report Abuse

problem is the demand of camera and hard disk is drop every quarter.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-28 14:37 | Report Abuse

Hi Johnnys.. HDD increased QoQ by a lot. You really should at least read the Quarterly results :P

1st Q 2014, HDD revenue RM19.2mil, 2nd Q 2015 RM31.7mil > 50% gain le.

Some positives in HDD (Win 10, enterprise HDD sales, Seagate new plant in png) so expect the trend to continue.
SLR.. Think it has bottomed out? And will be flat sales. (doubt it will get worse)
Automotive (This is growth market in 2 ways, by itself the brake industry will grow, due to safety regulations etc. 2ndly.. TRW is a ~20billion USD sales company per annum, if Notion can do good job, and grow their TRW account..... plenty of job for 100% machine utilization loh.. just need to execute properly.)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-30 11:38 | Report Abuse

To the long-term guys. What do you think of today's movement?
Tempting price for some of you, maybe some even took profit d
anonymous, you sold you <=40?

Posted by GreenTrade > 2015-07-30 11:41 | Report Abuse

It should go up to the 0.50 level :)

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-30 11:53 | Report Abuse

Hi Val-Elta bro, I add some at 41 cents. I didn't sell any but been collecting. My TPs all from 80 cents. And some for above 1.00 too. Hope we are right and if we are right, our sharing help some investors.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-30 12:06 | Report Abuse

movement too fast.. lol. No short term catalyst to prop the price.. good Q result, is 2 weeks away.

A lot of fast money coming in. Aih.. up too fast also wanna complain. Lol :)
As experienced guys, if they come in with their margins/T+3 plays, it can crash quite fast too.

Took profit for my 38.5 cent lot d. See if I get some luck in my technical trade or not :P

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-30 12:08 | Report Abuse

Sold my 38.5 at 45, but it's a small % of my overall portfolio here.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-30 12:09 | Report Abuse

I actually prefer a slow and steady rise, i worry the margin/t+3 guys, + technical traders coming in and messing up the market. LOL.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-30 12:12 | Report Abuse

Those guys will pump and dump, hate it when that happens :/

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-30 12:12 | Report Abuse

Volume doesn't look normal bro.. looks internal news leaked. If results good, usually stocks will up before announcement. My advice don't sell anymore. But I'm not responsible anything ya :)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-30 12:17 | Report Abuse

Ya.. no worries, we all old timers here :)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-30 12:19 | Report Abuse

There was a 6 million daily volume back in april as well, that one evaporated in 1 day, and all the gains gone the next. But this time it IS closer to Q result announcement.. so, hopefully there is a positive fundamental shift la.

All it needs is some good news, and the analysts can easily put a Buy article out with TP of 60-80 cents, and it'll fly more.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-30 12:29 | Report Abuse

The hike in April I think was due to the phone launching. I guess..

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-30 16:29 | Report Abuse

There goes my 45 cent sales :D crazy really crazy

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-30 17:06 | Report Abuse

u have enough to sell
i dont have enough, so i add =)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-07-30 17:10 | Report Abuse

tomorrow if it goes up a lot or down a lot, we're gonna have a lot of postings from new comers in this thread... lol

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-07-30 17:18 | Report Abuse

i'll be away =)

Posted by master_tan > 2015-07-31 06:45 | Report Abuse

Notion is turning into profit by this quarter. With the end of hedge contract and new hedge contract, strong USD and about 40% of products are export overseas, company is going to beneficial from this.

The HDD revenue is increase YoY, as of now, company is expecting to have greater revenue as major customers are preparing for year end sales. The economy recovery in US/Europe will help boost the spending and indirectly increase the revenue.

The recent sales of building will ensure company have enough cash on hand as working capital, and breakeven the full year EPS and turn to black. Remember company still have more properties on sales, and any redundant cash will be return to shareholder as special dividend. Currently the NTA is ~RM1.00 but the share price is only RM0.475.

In fact, at last quarter, company already successfully turn into black, but due to expenses on hedge fund contract and other maintenance on CNC machine, causing it to lose money. Assuming this quarter revenue remain the same or slight increase, the EPS this quarter is about 3~4 send per quarter. ( Exclude the sale of property one time gain ). This will make up yearly EPS of 12sen~16 sen. At 10 time P/E, this counter suppose to be priced at at least RM1.20. There is more than 50% room to growth.

Finally, company has treasury stock of about 2million. Management may decided to give the treasury stock as dividend to shareholder ( which happen in the past ). This will give the shareholder another surprises.

Enjoy the ride of returning of Notion...after waited for long time

31/07/2015 06:43

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-07-31 07:24 | Report Abuse

承你贵言

Posted by cutie > 2015-07-31 10:05 | Report Abuse

can go up some more?...till now still holding on strong. sold 48....wanted to buy back, ok ah??

Posted by cutie > 2015-07-31 10:27 | Report Abuse

aiyaaa...coming again

Posted by master_tan > 2015-08-02 00:01 | Report Abuse

if the turnaround plan works, I see can go up to RM1

Posted by xind > 2015-08-03 07:27 | Report Abuse

Master tan, thank you so much, wanted to sell off as losing a lot n hold for so long, now I'll wait for it's return.

Posted by blackout > 2015-08-03 14:01 | Report Abuse

MYR depreciated to RM3.83, as long as they didn't put in any additional hedges at RM3.6. Easily their profit margin is 12~15% when all the hedges expire, which should be in the last quarter.

Also, generally sales pick up in the second half of the year. So the revenue is likely to spike in the 3rd and 4th quarter, not withstanding the currency depreciation.

Posted by cm > 2015-08-03 14:04 | Report Abuse

i saw a strong reversal sign...

Posted by sherlock > 2015-08-04 01:46 | Report Abuse

just done a quick calculation,concluded with "notion 3rd Q result will be surprisingly good".

my forecast is,Notion will definitely return to black with Net Profit between RM10-12million,which equal to quaterly EPS of 3.69-4.43cen.seems like hard to believe especially when the share are trading at only 47cen,but it is indeed a very logical prediction.

mr.xind,i will definitely continue to hold if i was you,cos the company are right at the turnaround spot,future earning should keep improving,don miss the uptrend since u already suffered downtrend for so long.

notion should release 3rd Q result by middle of this month,hope my prediction are proven then.