Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-22 11:11 | Report Abuse

just let the shark play their game, and watch on the sideline... don't get caught by desire to move.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-22 11:17 | Report Abuse

The people who are selling at 40 cent now will 99% be selling at a loss. Think about it logically.... the people who are buying and matching the 40cents have little to no risk. Sellers are transferring $ to buyers literally...

Always remember in the share game, when you cut loss, someone else will gain.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-22 11:24 | Report Abuse

Watch the volume, and you will see patterns... the 40 cents buyers are clever, purposely q-ing in small 100-200-300 batch...
always look like it will break 40 cents, but never break one.

if you assume a normal day, without shark ready to accumulate at 40cents, such a big sell volume on a 'unplanned without proper preparation day' would have broke it to 38 cents if not lower.

looks like the buyers have advanced information, and have already set their purchasing decision in advance.

Posted by cutie > 2015-09-22 11:30 | Report Abuse

thks, I buy some more. Their business should improve in the next quarter , is it?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-22 11:46 | Report Abuse

no one can tell for certain, but probability, yes it should be better.
even with the QA issues, GP margin % is healthy at 25% and have been increasing.

Couple of weeks ago, I also purposely try to find problem with the co, just to balance my optimistic nature, and I don't see any problem too, even when I'm purposely trying to find fault.

QoQ for the past 8 Qs, overall cost of sales have not been increasing as fast as revenue. The revenue to cost of sales ratio is actually increasing, which is a good thing. This is inclusive of the QA problems they're having now ya... so even if they r really stupid and no improvement in QA issues, it's still relatively healthy margins.

Don't want to influence other people view too much, do your own homework, with your own view, and see if it matches mine. If you come to the same conclusion as me, means we're seeing the right thing.

Sharing of knowledge/analysis is better, as the probability of all of us getting it wrong is less.

Posted by cutie > 2015-09-22 12:04 | Report Abuse

Their DER is less than 0.1 now after selling their property recently and i dont see anything bad about Notion except for the fire claim .

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-22 12:25 | Report Abuse

Volume dont seem normal, good chance to pick up, make the shark put the effort and we benefit from it :)

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 14:37 | Report Abuse

look how sharks play ;)

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 14:48 | Report Abuse

aiyoo sharks sharks, u forgot to cover the notion warrant.. too obvious la xD

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 14:49 | Report Abuse

come come, fight for tickets, queue bit more. i been waiting this cheap also. thanks a lot

Posted by cutie > 2015-09-22 15:05 | Report Abuse

closing will be 43 again.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 15:05 | Report Abuse

if u push, i will also follow u ma. which i did all the time when u push to 48

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 15:09 | Report Abuse

this stock as i see it can reach around 2.40 if u wan

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 15:10 | Report Abuse

so stingy

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-22 18:52 | Report Abuse

Mmm, TCF sold 2m shares today, that explains one part of the heavy volume.
Reminds me of a posting someone else made abt the last AGM and no one suggest for TCF to be renominated as chairman.
Wondering if the other major shareholders is making him responsible for the losses?
Not good news in one way, since he's selling.
Maybe good news in another way, if that'll mean eventually someone else become the chairman...

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-22 18:59 | Report Abuse

The shares sold is held under his wife name though.... is she the one selling? Mmmm... gonna be really testing your holding power here now.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 19:58 | Report Abuse

:)

hehe.. let's think critically k.. u will find it amusing..

then u will have this idea - maybe he passed it to operxxxx/syndxxxxx.

firstly, i also observed it from the morning, before i read what val-elta had mentioned, that there were too many suspicious transactions. and i saw it too, obviously. most are prearrange transactions, somebody queued to buy i.e. placed in the buy order 1st then only selling took place. i repeat, queue to buy was ordered 1st, and then somebody sold it, well its our mr TCF. mostly at 40 cents. it's amusing there is a particular buyer available at all time keep queuing and refresh it and a particular seller keep selling to meet the buyer requests at all time. this is not normal.

and secondly, he eager to make the announcement as it like want everyone to know about it right away, usually i don't see shareholders announce the selling so fast, on the day itself! abnormal too.

val-elta, if ur company will earn money and share price will surge soon, will u sell the shares? it doesnt matter if u are the chairman or not, would u wan to sell? off market transaction is available anytime and some more price are negotiable. unless they are poor, i believe the rest of the shareholders want the portion he selling. there is only 1 reason why a shareholder dont want to do it off market way, because dont wan to have anybody to trace it.

disclaimer: it's jz my speculation.. so judge it by urself.. if u have any observation or opinion plz share it too, sharing is necessary and sometimes crucial esp among ikan bilis, this is what this ikan bilis club should do. i glad val-elta always is here, he is like a ikan bilis papa.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 20:57 | Report Abuse

Wat do u think.. somebody selling for 2 mil shares. Total selling it created is 3.3 mill shares (1.3 from ikan bilis) and got 3.3 millions share buyer. This buyer.. is not me and not u.. I didn't buy so much xD

Who ya?

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 20:58 | Report Abuse

My pocket small. Cannot afford 3.3 mil of shares purchasing for notion. Must be someone rich or funded.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 21:01 | Report Abuse

After I queued some significant amount at 40 cents i nvr get it. Nobody choose to sell it to me.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-22 21:20 | Report Abuse

When did you Q for 40? 40 cents have been completely sold off for a lot of times d :)
Don't think you Q at 40 loh. I'm sure you will match if you did.

However, it's true that if you follow TCF's previous transactions. (He bought both shares and warrants) you will go to holland. He was buying previously as well, when subsequently we know that there's no fundamental to support his buying decision.

Let's just stick to the fundamentals, directors announcing their shareholding can be used to guide us to a certain way of thinking if we just follow blindly.
They can BUY when a bad result is coming, you follow him u lose money.
They can also SELL when a good result is coming, again you follow him, also you lose money.

Posted by pangolin > 2015-09-22 21:57 | Report Abuse

thought this company going to recover soon ?? y still sell 2 milion >???

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 23:22 | Report Abuse

matched the little one i queued in the afternoon. but those i add on in the end, didnt match..

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-22 23:27 | Report Abuse

i'm confident it's pre-arranged transactions. and rarely got big buyer appear in notion, buying like this, 3.3 mil shares.

Posted by blackout > 2015-09-23 01:14 | Report Abuse

Just want to highlight my worry here, i think there is infighting in management. I hope that is it, and not that there is something untoward going on.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-23 08:41 | Report Abuse

Possible for infighting actually. I'm sure there will b some disagreement on d silver n phone losses, especially if these were tcf projects. Add in d forex losses some more. I would not b happy if all d hard work is lost on 3 projects n cause d share price to tank.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-23 08:43 | Report Abuse

3 scenario, in fight that leads to tcf exit?
Prearranged sales to trap ikan bilis.
Real bad quarter coming up.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-23 08:47 | Report Abuse

Bad q is least likely to happen, if u know where to look for d info. Auto shld b on uptrend (+10%), due to good car sales in Europe.
SLR can wait 1 week for cipa statistics, HDD wd n Seagate projection is for slight increase, ard 5%

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-23 08:50 | Report Abuse

News of tcf sale is out, let's see the buyers at 40, 40.5 how well their holding power too.. If they strong holder, prearranged sales is most likely scenario..

If further throw stock to 35, tcf exit is almost confirmed then... Dunno good or bad

Posted by blackout87 > 2015-09-23 08:50 | Report Abuse

Another issue might be, key supplier cancels supply contract due to persistent rejection rates....

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-23 09:07 | Report Abuse

Arranged sales is likely happened yesterday, few reasons.
Back then even no director selling, it break down to 38-39 on normal volume.

Now u tell me a single seller with 2.25 million shares continue throw full day can't break 395? If buyer really is not prepared, it should break 38.5 with suuch sell volume.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-23 09:09 | Report Abuse

Besides the 3-10 of us here who is still bullish on this boat.... Who else will q 3.3m for notion at 40-40.5 cents anyway.. Lol. All also scare notion.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-23 09:14 | Report Abuse

Nexttrade n kenanga asking to avoid notion. Most ppl also avoid notion, even me bullish also start to question myself a bit, if right or wrong, Lol... So who will put buy q @40-40.5 of 3.3m..... Unlikely that yesterday ikan bilis can fight tcf sale qq I think.

Posted by kakashit > 2015-09-23 09:15 | Report Abuse

yalor, not so good, tcf dumped 2m shares within a day, i chao first

Posted by kakashit > 2015-09-23 09:16 | Report Abuse

I met tcf personally in the agm, he looks very slicky, better dun count on him

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-23 09:31 | Report Abuse

Also from buyer perspective, if u want to build 3.3m position in notion, y that day only buy? If buyer don't have any information too, u would think he buy up notion price to 44 d. Few days ago it was 43.5 already.

Posted by cutie > 2015-09-23 10:10 | Report Abuse

if u read the past year, TCf also sell 2 million shares but his holdings is still the same. I think no problem with this. remember when the market was down so much the past month, notion holds very steady

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-23 11:48 | Report Abuse

Haha.. as I said. It really looks like pre-arranged transaction. Only those who watch Notion everyday for many months would know. So far only Val elta and I see it, serious meh?

Posted by cutie > 2015-09-23 12:33 | Report Abuse

TCF in the past year also sold 2 million shares in one day and that is it. Once a year and this was yesterday.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-23 13:42 | Report Abuse

I will stay tune for I believe it's fundamental and secondly I think show is coming soon.

Posted by blackout > 2015-09-26 08:44 | Report Abuse

I thought after 3rd quarter it will shoot. Now 3rd quarter pass, the chairman throw 2mil shares, really bang balls man....

Posted by blackout > 2015-09-26 08:45 | Report Abuse

Dunno what the 4th quarter will look like, but seriously with this type of exchange rate, even the badly run companies like dufu is also profitable.

Posted by kakashit > 2015-09-26 17:48 | Report Abuse

Well, tcf didnt hv to go for a big circle, he could hv simply off market deal to pass his shares to someone.

When he was throwing such a big amount of shares in such a quick time, he is being un-Notion.

U can forget about the fundamental of the co dy, no one knows better than the directors.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-09-26 17:50 | Report Abuse

great comment. Thks

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-28 10:37 | Report Abuse

Still, seems rather odd... the 1 week of trading days before his disposal, 'sellers' totally no Q already. There's just no sellers anymore in the period b4 tcf sold.
(the 3 million strong interested buyer, could have easily buy it up to 48 cents) IF he wants to accumulate, and IF he doesn't know a willing seller is gonna throw.
If the 3 million 'buyer' just buy a day or 2 earlier, the price will move up already.
Similarly, the sell Q also seems too convenient as well.

There is something that supports a prearranged sales, to
1) drive the price down, 2) force others to panic sell.
Insider can use his knowledge to mess with us in two ways, buy when he know a bad quarter is gonna come and then (sell with 3rd party), or sell when he knows a good quarter is coming and (buy with 3rd party).


Although, generally, yes I do agree it's not good news that this is happening.

The volume and price action will proof if that's indeed the case or not.

Posted by kakashit > 2015-09-28 10:57 | Report Abuse

Well, u guesess could be right, but according to the history of insider movement, the two directors keep disposing millions of shares, but only acquire thousand of shares.

Even if Notion did go up as u wish, why bother it, there're simply 900 plus counters in Bursa.

Posted by kakashit > 2015-09-28 11:06 | Report Abuse

As a cautious investor, I take care of the downside first

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-28 14:35 | Report Abuse

Yeah, agreed, i'm speaking for those already in the boat la.... realizing the lost at around 40 cents don't make much sense at this point it seems.

Granted, unless the fundamentals really match what we expect it next Q, i'm holding back from buying more too. I think that's the only catalyst to push it up, other than that, got CIPA results in a few days.....

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-28 16:41 | Report Abuse

i know what to believe, and make my own judgement. everyone should as well.

my notion investment is firm, for now. only thing i worry now is the weak sentiment, i hedging some put warrant as part of risk management. jz in case market gets uncontrollable. jz for sharing.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-09-28 16:45 | Report Abuse

i know some investors may wan to cash out and in later.. i was thinking about that too.. but then finally i decided to hedge put warrant if index drop badly.. buy as insurance..