Posted by bsngpg > 2015-08-20 21:59 | Report Abuse

I bought in at very high price with the current valuation but was a reasonable price at the time of buying. I started buying even before 5 to 1 consolidation n years ago. I bought even more somewhere at 1.80 if I remember correctly. I put in high hope on Mr Too, but I do not know if God play him out or he plays me out to become today's deadlock position.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 22:10 | Report Abuse

well, their growth is very impressive. from IPO a lot will gain 3-400% i didn't really check.. but in shares, we all worry
1) buy at peak.
2) Sell at btm.. (well at least you didn't do this!)

I think every price level have its opportunity to make profit... doesn't matter if my 70cent is a mistake, i know 40 cents is a bargain.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-08-20 22:11 | Report Abuse

If it is a new company, I would not pre-judge if its MD is a good or bad man. However this company has been proven growing backward unfailingly for many years, what else can we expect from the management. One or two poor incidents are ok to blame God, a series of poor incidents in few years tells the incompetency of the management. Therefore I do not recommend new people buying into this company. There are many solid companies in bursa to invest. Do not take unnecessary risk here. Let the old die hard bird like me stinks here.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 22:11 | Report Abuse

Happy hunting everyone tomorrow, whatever your strategy maybe~

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-08-20 22:13 | Report Abuse

Referring to return after IPO, did you factor in the 5:1 consolidation n years ago.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-08-20 22:17 | Report Abuse

Whatever it is, it is very nice talking to you and thousand thanks for your close following up on Notion for years. Thks and good night.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-21 03:50 | Report Abuse

i had a typo with regards to tax. i meant "They purposely charged a high tax in this Q, and that reduced the reported profit for this Q".

my interpretation for the tax matter which i'd mentioned earlier:

refer B5 taxation:

RM 1,549,000 was charged under current year quarter 30.06.2015, under provision in the previous financial year. which i think it shouldn't appear here.

RM1.5 mil man... put that into profit...

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-21 04:15 | Report Abuse

anyway, i agree with u, conservatively, annual EPS from operation should be above 7. stock price also should be above 70 cents. at least.

and that's excluding in future, the gain from assets disposal under their new light asset strategy.

and excluding the current & future's stronger USD and EURO, compared to this Q3. current USD & EURO is a lot stronger than this Q3, around 10%. Check it's foreign currency risk sensitivity analysis:
- every 5% change in USD has a rm869,000 effects on loss/profit after taxation.
- every 5% change in EURO has a rm353,000 effects on loss/profit after taxation.

when u add up the amount into the profits...

FY2015 will end in black in anyway.

i hope and i think investment bank will make some good calls. and hope some newspapers re-introduce this counter to make ppl aware of its turn over.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sinchew_company_story/80714.jsp

though market is weak, but it pass for most exporters, i hope for notion too.

Posted by Ven Felix > 2015-08-21 10:13 | Report Abuse

The only reason to hop in is Bottoming out from $0.42 others reason are a bit ....

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-21 10:56 | Report Abuse

First wave of profit taking already happened during the selloff from 485 back to 460. Something that must happen for a good foundation.

Good news is, a lot who buy at 40-42 have probably taken profit.
Bad news is, they didn't wait until higher price.

I would say, after two rounds of increase to 48 cents, most if not all of the 40 cent guys have already exited.

Those who are still holding after T3 will be the fundamental guys who is targetting 60cent + as TP I guess.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-21 11:25 | Report Abuse

The main problem with notion is the quality of the shareholders.. a lot of speculators, sharks, and no holding power traders who are willing to cut loss. After the previous rise to 48, it drop entirely back to 38-40 cent (those who sell at 38.5.. u know who u are, and you're really just making other ppl gain at your lost) this of course gives chance for ppl to accumulate at 40, and take profit at 48 again, and once more limiting the upside.

High volume is important, but the quality of the buyers is much more important too.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-21 11:36 | Report Abuse

Haha

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-21 11:38 | Report Abuse

I nvr sell a single share even I'm from 36 cents

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-21 11:39 | Report Abuse

From today's volume, and buying pattern, I would say a lot of confident buyers at 47 between 11-1130am

A lot of 1 buyer with 1000 lots keep replacing 47 after it got sold off from multiple smaller lots.

Seldom do technical analysis as you need to monitor it exactly as it's happening to gain useful information.

If 485 can be broken again today, we may for the first time see it touch 50 cents.
I think still got 1 more bunch of fellas taking profit at 485.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-21 11:57 | Report Abuse

I'll keep.. confidence on it wont shake no matter how it floats even market crash. Coz its ad big discount according to future earning which is straight forward. It's value is too undervalued.. it's price ad crashed long time ago..

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-21 11:58 | Report Abuse

And Nikon got shares in Notion and always is there as Notion customer. And other big companies like Canon, Sony, WD, TR, Continental etc.. if stock market crash the business stil continue.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-21 12:22 | Report Abuse

i always like companies come back in black and hunt for them, coz they have explosive power.

for recent ones, after unisem, then evergreen then mieco, i had enough of lessons for impatience.

unisem from 90 cents to 2.50, i regret i sold too early after the turn black result announcement
same for evergreen from 50 cents to 1.9 now, which i also regret i sold too early
lastly mieco from 38 cents to 1 plus. i also sold them too early.

at that time, no matter how big are the queues to sell and looked like it's gona slip down, eventually the queues for selling all got eaten up from time to time

and then they have been trending higher and higher after quarter per quarter.

i regret i didnt think further...

this time i'll keep for at least few quarters.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-21 13:09 | Report Abuse

I also like to buy turnaround companies :) Lets see how it goes....

Posted by blacktulip > 2015-08-21 14:03 | Report Abuse

Turnaround stories requires a sharp eye , guts , extremely contrarion n most of all tremendous amount of patience. Fr your posting Val-Elta seems to have most of these qualities.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-22 13:20 | Report Abuse

Quote from: http://ongmali.blogspot.sg/

Dear valued readers,

Ringgit is > 4.00 to 1 USD now, we should continue to focus on export stocks. The strengthening of USD will help to improve the EPS or EBIT of the export stock.
I will enclose the chart of the following stocks to show you the trend.

Export stocks
Vs
Mpi
Latitud
Liihen
Heva-WB

KLSE component stocks
Maybank
Sime
Tenaga
TM
KLK

Please decide yourself which sectors will you choose. We want to buy up trending stocks only, but not down trending stocks like most of FBMKLCI component stocks.

Final decision is yours.

Thank you.
Ooi

Source : i3investor Mr Ooi Teik Bee


GA: I agree with Mr Ooi , in 1998 only these type of stocks were moving in a bad market. Even if they drop once market recover they are the 1st ones to rebound hard. So if you want to invest these are the stocks to hold. Tqvm



---> SO NOTION CAN? A TURN BLACK COMPANY WITH 81.5% OF REVENUE FROM EXPORTS TO BIG COMPANIES. PRAY PRAY IT CAN LA =)

Posted by kakashit > 2015-08-24 13:10 | Report Abuse

"With the bulk of the unfavourable forward contracts which had expired, things should improve from this quarter onwards given the strong US Dollar and Euro against the Ringgit."

from next quarter onwards, Notion can really enjoy forex gain.

The smartphone biz is really a stupid move, im glad they stop it and incurring 500k losses only.

"We are still looking at the light asset strategy and will consider further disposals on a sale and leased back model when the market permits"

This is great, they're unleashing factory land value that were bought years ago.

the 8.9m gain on land disposed is just a small piece of cake, they still got a few pieces of lands worth 20m each and were bought 5 to 10 yrs ago.

Im willing to buy Notion at 40cents.

Posted by kakashit > 2015-08-24 17:41 | Report Abuse

got it, at 40 cents

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-24 17:46 | Report Abuse

Anyway, super global market route. Now fear is the main player..
may trade in this 38-42 range for a few weeks... for believers, you can take it as a chance to buy more :P

Good thing is, not so much buyers from Friday's 6m volume exited today.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-24 18:10 | Report Abuse

The kenanga report probably killed the momentum too.. :S

Posted by leo218 > 2015-08-24 20:40 | Report Abuse

Notion is still bad, see this http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2015/08/notion-returned-to-profit-for-now.html

Posted by leo218 > 2015-08-24 20:41 | Report Abuse

>>>>Notion (closed at RM0.44 yesterday) is now trading at a PBR of 0.4 time. I am unable to compute a PER for Notion as it is not profitable in the last 4 quarters (combined). I have serious doubt that this group can operate profitably in the future, given its poor track record in the past few quarters. It took an extraordinary gain & a sharp drop in the Ringgit to help it to return to the black. One cannot count on these favorable factors all the times.

Posted by blacktulip > 2015-08-24 22:19 | Report Abuse

If one were to look at co with beautiful figures it wd not b selling at 40+sen. Inari is very nice but it is selling at about rm3. Wh is the chance it can go to rm6? Wh is the chance notion can go to 80 sen?

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-24 22:31 | Report Abuse

keep 1 yr

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-24 22:32 | Report Abuse

2.3.7

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-24 22:35 | Report Abuse

this time cannot believe kenanga, believe val-elta better

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-25 12:56 | Report Abuse

Well.. I do read nexttrade, n kenanga they all normally will only push stocks that normally already uptrend. That's y kenanga will only probably upgrade notion in next q. Currently there is still some smoke, n not so easy to read for the general investors.

For example, HDD drop 2x% this Q. Is that a concern? Warning? To new comers, maybe, but if u know d pattern, HDD sales is seasonal, 2nd n 4th q is much stronger. So, expectation is HDD will at least rebound back 20%+ if not more.

SLR. This is d unexpected news with a big increase. As I may have mentioned, CIPA posted a first QoQ n YoY increases in lenses sales. Next week we will get cipa result again, n if it can maintain, then notion can easily get close to 90-100% utilization too. Especially with d HDD picking up.

Automotive, again I think this is a growth sector, especially with TRW as a customer. TRW is a 2+billion USD sales per year, if they do good job grow their acc with TRW repeat what they did when they first enter the SLR lenses business, its vv good d.. No need waste time on HP business really.. Imagine TCF waste 2 hours with HP business meeting. How many phone need to sell just to cover director fees.

Posted by blackout87 > 2015-08-26 15:42 | Report Abuse

YTD inventory write off RM7million+. I wonder if this will continue to persist, and what management is doing to rectify it...

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-26 16:08 | Report Abuse

Abt 400k from that is the handphone units I guess, if not 500k in total.
They have been struggling with their QA on this aspect, quite wasteful and I believe they have made improving their reject rates a priority too.
Don't say getting new customers la, if they can cut the losses there by 20%, that's 1.4m per year d.
Internal and engineering issues, should be solvable.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-26 16:14 | Report Abuse

T+3er from Friday cutting loss, force selling ^^

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-26 17:08 | Report Abuse

Exactly.. the force selling.

Nvm.. their force selling make me picked up more. Aiyoyo... cant believe still can pick up at this price.

I don't understand these ppl. Should analyse and forget their hit and run then hold or buy more instead of selling.. They don't know it's a great stock that has high TP but need some time for it. If they study the stocks and think in depth, no need to throw coz it has strong drop resistance, and once market recover, it will back in steady uptrend until half year later pick up in steeper trend when things are going too obvious. 1 year in total to be fully ripe... Maybe earlier if big investors grabbing the tickets as free floating shares are very few..

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-26 20:33 | Report Abuse

Hard to say... Near term we may be fools.. But like u, I have buy but sold turnaround companies too early few times. Previously I cut loss, then i never cut loss, then take profit 5% then train to 10% n now I'm aiming for 20-30+% gains before sell. A few of my previous stocks hit 100% gain over time too... In my experience, stocks with great NAPS and profitable with EPS will definitely shoot back up very fast.. This q is d first step, next q is crucial for this stock breaking 50cents. Also next q will be much clearer in earning projection/visibility with one off gain/losses finally gone. If the Q there is good, I think kenanga will upgrade it.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-26 20:34 | Report Abuse

That will be the day normal investors dare to buy n hold longer.... Right now only fools like us buy n hold. Lol

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-26 20:44 | Report Abuse

If next q is good 60-70 cents is achievable in 4 months d... Along d way we can get more information to improve our q prediction.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-26 22:26 | Report Abuse

Haha.. We maybe fools but Likely not, I hope we r not :)

Reversal investment.

1st risk calculation:
I do worry of the crash/correction everyone is talking about. But this stock beta is low at its current price performance. Supported with no seller. Plus in last few corrections, Notion lowest was at 34, 36, 38. But the amount transacted at 34 and 36 is like nothing at all, few lots only, nobody wan to sell. Loss making Q2 out, not moving too while most ppl tot it will go down further. Those price range was before they sold their Klang asset and posted their latest Q3 results. Computed own price range if market crash or not crash. I find the downside is limited. The value is there.

2nd potential return calculation:
I won't struggle nor regret in buying Notion even now as the TP is way too high that i cannot miss it. I computed the FY 16 earning and got myself stunned.

Weight:
I am willing in buying and holding it to secure the ticket. Coz I know it can surge like a rocket anytime. Though I'm talking bout 6 months later only things get very obvious but i know many investors out there that have greater holding power, analysis skills and guts would act much earlier for greater profit return, esp funds. I encountered and learned about it esp from the recent unisem, evergreen and mieco cases. The prices surged right after the companies reported their last loss making Q results. Thats simply unbelievable esp unisem case surged with multimillions loss. Notion jz need some publicity :)

Lastly, for the first time the company is dare to forecast they going to make some money from this Q. But even if sooooo unexpectedly next Q4 results is bad due to forex loss again, the following Q1FY16 is definitely a comeback to it, subsequently Q2-Q4 FY16. Coz forex loss is a one time loss and the annual USD they collected from revenue now is higher than the hedge amount. Count their FY 16 EPS.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-26 22:32 | Report Abuse

Laugh at me as if I'm being ridiculous but i am hoping the price will be above 1.20 and dividends will come back in FY16.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-27 10:20 | Report Abuse

Big volume in play today again, got big shark eating at 40, share transfer from weak to stronger hand happening

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-27 10:22 | Report Abuse

Same pattern will happen again, accumulate and go up to 48+... but with each buy and sell cycle, i'm expecting higher highs, and higher lows as it goes up. Not likely it will fall back to 40-42 again if indeed another 3+million volume day happen.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-27 14:41 | Report Abuse

War starting again! The next breakout is crucial if and when it happens

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-28 15:44 | Report Abuse

i think i'll see my name in the largest 30 shareholders xD

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-28 17:22 | Report Abuse

Wah.... as of AR 2014, the smallest 30th shareholder is 830k units thats about RM320k

You're the big shark attacking yesterday then! Lol

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-28 17:23 | Report Abuse

my holdings is significant, but not top 30 level. top 60 or 100 got ba. lol

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-28 23:02 | Report Abuse

haha~ jz joking. i'm not the big shark collecting yesterday. i add a bit day by day

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-29 19:38 | Report Abuse

check this out.. this is good.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GSQ6nbxeWWE/VeFUISNkeZI/AAAAAAAAA4w/Yg-H-6lqdu8/s1600/%25E8%25B5%2584%25E6%25B1%2587-8%25E6%259C%25882015.jpg

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ethg/82232.jsp

they forecast Notion PE will be around 7.17

maybe philip is the one keep buying.. or maybe someone else.

they keep accumulating. haha.. i bet everyone who want to buy will jz keep it low profile as possible.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-29 19:43 | Report Abuse

val-elta, if u dont know chinese, let me clarify it to u. it states notion is in the list of best 50 companies which carry the best forecast PE ratio. it stands at no 38.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-29 19:48 | Report Abuse

simply look will do. dont be too serious xD