Posted by blackout > 2015-09-29 01:09 | Report Abuse

I dunno how can they lose money in this type of foreign exchange

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-29 13:04 | Report Abuse

Have to wait next round... previously only USD rise, and the other currency didn't rise. and they already hedge USD. So they get the loss from USD, but no gain from other currencies.

But this time, all currency rise against RM, so we should see much better result.
They will still get M2M loss for their USD hedges, but this time will be covered with realised gains from other currencies.

After this Q over, i think their outstanding USD hedge is at 60-80m and MTM at 4.40/4.50 by tomorrow. From which on.... I really dont think USD will continue appreciate ba. It's almost unthinkable if USD goes to 4.80 to trigger another significant M2M loss for notion.

If USD drop back after the 4.40 M2M, there's gonna be some M2M gains then...

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-09-29 13:12 | Report Abuse

What I want to see from Notion this Q is significant reduction in their inventory writeoff, forex gain should counter forex loss...

So, coming Q results,
Forex nett, we'll see similar forex position, maybe slight -1m loss

Inventory writeoff losses,
At least 500k less (phone writeoff is one off)
I also want to see continuous QoQoQ improvements in Inventory writeoff reduction too.

Tax,
Won't have another 8m tax, maybe slight +ve to -ve tax too... think the provision is over already from prior Q's 8m tax provision.


Those are the PROS.

These should be the CONS.
HDD may only +5% sales QoQ
SLR.... this is the unknown, but I do expect it to drop between 2nd and 3rd Q figures ba. (Although in the prior Q report they mentioned it's possible to maintain their sales here.... which would be excellent if that's true)
Auto, 5-10% increase.

Anyway, that's what I expect ba...

Posted by cutie > 2015-09-30 15:59 | Report Abuse

Waiting for you at 37...

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-01 10:50 | Report Abuse

Cipa's result not so good :(

Posted by cutie > 2015-10-01 12:27 | Report Abuse

what? no good results? sure?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-01 12:53 | Report Abuse

SLR sales for August is not good. Dunno how much it'll impact September month Notion sales. www.cipa.jp you can review yourself.

Posted by cutie > 2015-10-01 15:06 | Report Abuse

cannot get at 37.5,,,,,Guess have to buy at 38

Posted by cutie > 2015-10-01 15:26 | Report Abuse

going to goreng anytime now. Buy .

Posted by cutie > 2015-10-01 16:41 | Report Abuse

aiiiii...38 also cant get now. Throw to me lah

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-01 16:44 | Report Abuse

I also hope they faster start the party after collecting enough volume

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-01 18:51 | Report Abuse

Why u guys believe got goreng...?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-01 18:52 | Report Abuse

Another disposal... seems like tcf is exiting.

Posted by kakashit > 2015-10-01 23:01 | Report Abuse

tcf keeps throwing, u try to stomach his shares la, i'll fish at the bottom another day somehow

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-02 09:33 | Report Abuse

this is their family business, if wan to throw, won't throw to us, it's either to his brothersss in law or operator.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-02 11:22 | Report Abuse

Think of it another way, even with him selling 2.6m, you can see total volume for past 3 days is abt 3.1m, which does shows lack of sellers from other holders.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-02 11:23 | Report Abuse

even if he is trying to force a panic sell, the 'panic' is not that much... yet.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-02 17:23 | Report Abuse

I wana share.. for ikan bilis sake..

If u not patient or weak heart better don't touch this or too much. We don't know what they will do next for collection. Once they collected enough only then they will be happy to act.

If u believe ur analysis, you are patient and have faith to it should u hold and fight till the end.

To be fair.. the stock was made known to some investors who have some weight.. and tbh I know there is 1 famous blogger is accumulating it while few more bloggers were introduced too. Most of them know have to wait for probably another half year. I believe they will buy as well whenever they make the price weak for collection.

Think carefully. Judge by urself..

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-02 17:37 | Report Abuse

Btw.. most existing shareholders are trapped at high price since years ago when the company acquired loss from the mining stock and hedging.. psychologically, they are not looking for exit at 40 cents or below. Most of them won't bother. Right? This is not efficient.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-06 15:26 | Report Abuse

Just wondering, TPPA agreement maybe beneficial for Notion in some way?

Posted by cutie > 2015-10-07 15:11 | Report Abuse

all counters move up and this....hahahahaaaa...stagnant

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-07 22:23 | Report Abuse

sleeping beauty =)

Posted by blackout > 2015-10-08 19:00 | Report Abuse

Erghh.. hope they find a new sector to go into now

Posted by blackout > 2015-10-08 19:01 | Report Abuse

Camera long term is a sunset industry.

Posted by cutie > 2015-10-09 10:58 | Report Abuse

can sapu now???? Looks firm these days.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-09 11:54 | Report Abuse

Automotive and EBS is a sunrise sector, I think one problem with notion is that they're slow to change... not tackling new projects fast enough

TRW + Continental + Bosch accounts for more than 80% of the market share for braking systems, and actually other components in an automobile too. With just TRW+Continental, that's over 50% market share definitely.

The company has half a foot into a very very big market share, but they're not pushing into TRW/Continental aggressively enough! They should aim to grow their product portfolio with TRW/Continental to more and more components. If they push for more sales, across more products just from these 2, there's plenty of business to achieve already.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-09 17:20 | Report Abuse

camera is not a sunset industry. ppl buy car, phone, watch etc and change them when they are spoilt or when they wan a new model with better performance. jz that the demand is saturated, thus the sales is not as good as it used to be few years ago when it's blooming. phone may hammer normal digital camera sales but not dslr camera. looking for answer from figures, good thing is that the demand of camera parts is getting stable. though it is not comparable with previous years but i am happy enough. it will continue to serve the company for some substantial revenue and profit. i don't really hope for growth in this section.

i hope hdd section can grow. nowadays data storage is growing in commercials. in this era, there are more data to store, data files are getting bigger, the need for data backup, i see more hdd are needed.

and i see there is space for growth in auto section as well.

back to camera sales, short term wise, i mean for the coming Q, as sep is the traditionally good month for notion camera part export, so i not worry about it. i forsee the camera parts sales should be same as previous Q which is good enough. if come to worse, might only have max 5% of decrease in sales in camera parts.

but then, i like to point out for this coming Q, sadly, it may post a negative results due to forex loss in usd hedging again, probably nett loss at negative 5 mil or even more if they wan to make it look more ugly than it is.

if happen to be like wat i said, there is no need to be panic or worry. check back their price movement history, notion was posted with some negative results for last few Q, but they barely moved as the valuation is at the bottom.

but i not sure about this time, as there is possibility some ppl might intentionally weaken the price to shaken off the weak holders for collection. if u like to win this big (which i see can be really BIG), u need to be patient. so u can last there to see the rainbow after the rain.

probably nobody will shaken the price, or price may go up before the results, or price may go up regardless of negative results (jz like unisem and evergreen when they announce the last bad quarter). it's kinda tricky...

jz my speculation only.. dont blame me for anything xD

anyway no harm to prepare for anything..

Posted by blackout > 2015-10-09 23:13 | Report Abuse

Sounds good. Btw my name is in the top 30 shareholders... ahahaha.... Eating losses now. I think the phone cameras will only get better... and sooner or later they will be at dslr lvl. Then why should anyone purchase dslrs? Are they offering something substantially better?

I also think this time is probably time to accumulate. Even if everything bad happens it is pretty much priced in. The forex reflects approximately 3.80 MYR to USD. The worst was last year and the first half of this year. Forex losses is at almost RM30million, this is also at around USD3.80. Without this losses they can add approximately RM22.5million in profit. Its at 4.20 USD Myr now.

Operationally the next year should be better than this year. If they just maintain this years operations their Net profit should easily be 30~40mil

Posted by blackout > 2015-10-09 23:28 | Report Abuse

the monkey wrench is those quality issues.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-10 09:35 | Report Abuse

i play dslr camera, its current function and play is way impossible to be matched up by phone camera for now. but yea, far in future, who know phone may replace dslr, or perhaps watch may replace both of them? but that is too far to consider for me.

i see u are one of the big shareholder. glad to hear that u also think that the profit amount is achievable. let's say the profit is 35 mil, that also means its eps is 13 cents, which means its share price can be 1.17 for PE at 9, and 1.30 for PE at 10.

lets see how we walk through the challenge we might face in the coming Q results.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-10 09:36 | Report Abuse

anyway, i have some more to collect. in case got ppl like to play it down, lets grab ticket together lo.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-10 09:38 | Report Abuse

we might see tcf keep selling more, but i believe that is a con show

Posted by master_tan > 2015-10-10 09:50 | Report Abuse

Agree, by the year, we will win big on this counter.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-10 13:20 | Report Abuse

I'm not too optimistic on SLR though, hope they can diversify n b more aggressive with new products, industries.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-10 13:34 | Report Abuse

I get the feel they got arrogant with their good record, n fall back/lost motivation to push on. Hope this is a wake up call for them.. I'm just putting an idea, if I'm the mngt there, I would aggressively tap into TRW n continental account. Both is in the auto industry which have a lot of products that can be cnc machined

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-10 13:41 | Report Abuse

The opportunity is there definitely, but they really need to stay focused n start executing properly. Glad they ditched the phone business.. It'll really distract them from the core if they insist to continue on.. Imagine if the directors continue to spend 1-2 hours of their time on meeting in regards to the HP business.. That's like how many thousands lost already.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-10 13:47 | Report Abuse

Also for auto industry, new players will have a harder time to get in due to the quality/safety issues too. It's a good stable industry if they can get qualified. I will put all effort there really...

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-10 14:27 | Report Abuse

Also I don't think the directors suddenly just become stupid n incapable, after a good track record for many years... To sell at 37-40 will mean its suddenly run by morons which is definitely overstatement. Investors shld expect btr results, but need to b calm abt it as well. They were successful diversifying from HDD only to HDD+SLR, I think it's clear that they should replicate their SLR entry success with TRW+Continental. To not do this, is criminal really..

Posted by blackout > 2015-10-11 03:23 | Report Abuse

some of the decisions done lately have been truly moronic.... The management compensation is also an issue, do u know that the management is being paid more than UMW management. UMW is making hundreds of millions each year, and their being paid less than notions management.

The remuneration committee ought to taken out and hanged, there is nobody speaking for the shareholders. Each one of the directors are being paid almost a million annually. Mind you, even at 30k per month it is already a fantastic salary, there is no need for all of them to be paid so much. Moreever when the business needs the money for capex investment to grow.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-11 11:19 | Report Abuse

Yeah, tcf was printed in focus newspaper a lot months back as one of the highest paid loss making director. Although YoY his pay is cut la. That's the risk of buying into a family controlled business... I will try to make time to the next agm as well :) if I'm still in the boat by then. Shld b 5-6mths later right?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-11 11:38 | Report Abuse

The good thing is, the shares qty is not much, and if they want to improve the share price/eps there's a lot of lubang.
1) debt is very low now, in 3q I think they will b debt free. Interest savings alone will add a bit to the EPS.
2) just a 30% reduction in inventory losses can lead to a million+ savings which again is a big impact to EPS due to smaller shares issued.
3) director pay cut? Again just 1m total cut per annum for all directors
4) sales growth
5) they consolidating their factory from 2 to 1, hope they can gain some process efficiency gains from the consolidation.
6) the net interest gain from not renting old factory after a year.

All in, a lot of lubang that they can get a few millions more earning per year from. Its a much btr company to b a CEO, because there's a lot of possible n achievable rooms for improvement of vs 1mdb for example...

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-11 11:41 | Report Abuse

I don't mind tcf exiting if he really loss the battle to improve the business d... Let someone else take the helm, n puah for the needed reform, if I can c the opportunity, I'm sure someone else who is at CEO level quality can c to turnaround it.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-11 11:49 | Report Abuse

For one thing, I'm glad they cut loss on d phone business. At least they still know that's d best thing to do. I've seen some company try to enter retail with a rebranded product, throw millions in inventory, hire a sales n marketing team, keep the sales n marketing team for a year b4 giving up. That's one of the worst case scenario that I was afraid notion will step into.. It'll b millions more losses if that's d case.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-11 11:53 | Report Abuse

Yup, they cut pay in previous year. But then increased it back in this year agm. Hope that they did so as they think they can justify it with showing us some good results soon.

Not sure if my current holding is enough as one of the 30 largest shareholders. But i have some friends have some certain amount as well. If next yr performance not up to expectation, let's join minority force to voice against the remuneration lo and f them in agm. Cannot jz keep quiet right.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-11 11:58 | Report Abuse

This year agm was in march. Maybe next year around the same time. Anyway let's see the results 1st for 2 more Q.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-11 13:33 | Report Abuse

I'm top 50 shld have my name, lol.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-10-11 13:34 | Report Abuse

Will try to agm definitely if I could.

Posted by cutie > 2015-10-11 14:02 | Report Abuse

u two really have guts to be in top 30 or 50. U not scared they might give a bad results or close shop , then all your money will be down the drain. So sure this counter is the best bet for u two??

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-11 15:24 | Report Abuse

Haha.. about bad results. I am expecting it tbh, coming Q results should be negative 5 mil. But after that i am quite affirmative it will get a brand new start in FY 16 and 17. But don't simply sell first for wat I said if u believe in nex Q is loss making coz its very tricky..

Close shop? They have many top international brand clients from camera, HDD, auto sectors. Can't imagine they lost them all. In fact I wonder why all these top brands go to Notion. Cox they are the No. 1 in this field.

Loss making factor is the hedging of usd. But it's going to over soon.

Profit making factor will be USD/RM and the end of hedging loss.

NTA posted is 1.08 but I think the real NTA is 1.20. Valuation is at bottom after few Q negative results. With good expectations coming soon, it shouldn't priced at 40 cents. Thanks to tcf :)

Haha.. but don't sailang la.. Coz this counter need time. Jz don't know when. But within 8 month time should have some handsome profit?

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-10-11 15:48 | Report Abuse

I jz wonder if the market will go back 1500 or lower. Hedging some puts..