Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-16 13:09 | Report Abuse

aih.. 46.5 2k Q kena throw by shark :(

Posted by master_tan > 2015-11-16 15:22 | Report Abuse

NOTION – Price has experienced a breakout above the RM0.435 level with higher-than-average volumes. The MACD Indicator has expanded positively above zero, but the RSI is overbought. Price may rally towards the RM0.50-RM0.55 levels after a short term pullback. Support will be anchored around the RM0.43 level.

Source: M+ Online Research - 16 Nov 2015

Posted by master_tan > 2015-11-17 06:42 | Report Abuse

i can talk shiok while looking my profit increase day by by......

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-17 15:21 | Report Abuse

i think some ppl are too optimistic of this Q's result especially the talk abt dividends... it's really too soon.

QoQ, USD rised 16%, at outstanding hedging of 100m, M2M loss is around 13-15m, this is almost certainly to be confirmed.

I'll still say it's more likely that a loss will be coming this Q, around -5 to -1m depending on how much their revenue increased

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-17 15:53 | Report Abuse

VAL ...report said after May, the hedging ended. Where got oustanding hedging.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-17 16:21 | Report Abuse

cutie... read page 10, B11 of notion's last Q report..
:)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-17 16:23 | Report Abuse

B11. DERIVATIVE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
Type of derivatives Notional Value Fair Value as at 30.06.2015 as at 30.06.2015
Assets / (Liabilities)
RM’000 RM’000
Foreign Currency Hedging Contracts
-Less than 1 year 83,420 (8,760)
-1 year to 2 years 14,882 (2,153)
TOTAL _98,302 (10,913)

Anyway, summary even after 1 year, there's still 14m of hedging to go...
U need to read what the TCF say, they say 'majority of hedging will expire in may' not ALL hedging.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-17 17:35 | Report Abuse

anyway, by this friday we should know result d... let's hope for the best

Posted by kowards > 2015-11-17 21:34 | Report Abuse

kena CON by EVIL

Posted by master_tan > 2015-11-18 07:10 | Report Abuse

Notion renew their expired Hedging contract, is it referring to this ?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-18 10:11 | Report Abuse

there's no renewed hedging... afaik la.
All until now it's stated clearly Q after Q, it went from over 250m in hedging, until now finally outstanding 100m hedging.

Every Q, you see a deduction of the hedging(settlement) amount between 20-30m one...
This 100m hedge is still part of their old 300m (kinda insane) hedge contracts, that have not fully settled/matured.

So this Q, you will need to be prepared for a M2M loss of 10-13m, how much their profit can offset this loss, cant say for certain, but it's too big a M2M loss for them to be profitable this Q that's for sure.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-18 12:03 | Report Abuse

to be honest, I'd prefer if their fundamentels is stronger.
Can't really count of USD to RM being in such a good condition for long...

Not sure why they not willing to get into other product segments, or manufacture a wider variety of goods.
I think their machine utilization rate is still low, and they didn't properly replace the sales lost from SLR entirely..

Posted by chriswang > 2015-11-18 13:23 | Report Abuse

Don't be over pessimistic. The company FA is there. Dont forget they are the best precision engineering company. And i feel safe because of the high NAV is there too. If not because of the hedging, it should be making money right.

Yup, we can't deny the USD/RM will be benefiting the company and giving it a helping hand. But u think about it, those furniture stocks have up so much eg latitude, homeritz, liihen, hevea, 4 to 5 fold already and they all due to currency play also, nobody complain about it. Some industris performance is cyclical. So if u exclude the cycle then those companies assessment can be graded as junk. Currency advantage is consider one of the cycle. What I look at is how long it can sustain. I think in coming few years it's going to enjoy the good currency and bring the stock price to sky high.

Think in another way when their FA will be better with more retained earnings, more cash, better cash flow, everything will come back. And with those strong FA maybe the company can go back to their growth path, expand to new sector. Got money can talk and work, no money how to talk and work or expand. Simply expand before standing firm is a risk.

I agree with their current strategy to preserve cash and play safe for now. For now they are focusing in improving their current sector performance which is the most important to do now. U should be glad they are focusing back the field they are expertise in. I don't think it's hard for them to come back with a friendly environment like now.

Posted by master_tan > 2015-11-18 13:29 | Report Abuse

I think this coming quarter earning will be positive, a little bit better than last quarter, with help from the RM depreciation.

Posted by master_tan > 2015-11-19 11:12 | Report Abuse

when is the date for QR release ?

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-19 14:49 | Report Abuse

Notion will follow JCY trend.....slowly up till release QR. When u see the price at about 50 sen,,,then it is results time probvably next week.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-19 16:13 | Report Abuse

Hehe.. cutie, I think you posted before JCY dropped just now :P hope you dont mean follow JCY drop when the shark finish pump and start dump..

Serious reversal on the afternoon session

Posted by Jokerforever > 2015-11-19 19:51 | Report Abuse

This quarter loss 10mil if u guys read the quarter report.. Bursa mislead investor by posting 10mil profit

Posted by Annetan > 2015-11-19 19:57 | Report Abuse

I did see conflicting info.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-11-19 21:35 | Report Abuse

When the whole M'sia of exporting companies enjoying extra profit from the badly deteriorated RM, you continually lose big money from the world lousiest hedging, you cannot deny that you are the most incompetent manager in the world. Or maybe you are the smartest evil siphoning out public money to your personal account disguised under the name of hedging?

Posted by blackout87 > 2015-11-19 22:46 | Report Abuse

21 million due to forex hedging and machinery impairment.

Without these 2 items, profit around 10mil

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-20 03:20 | Report Abuse

Hmmm.. why want to throw? Siao meh? Already expect they loss making for this quarter in the first place.

Don't simply trick people to throw. Even if it drop, should be up soon after that. Because this should be the last quarter with loss.

Now the loss is 11 mil and that is due to forex loss 15 mil and creative bullshit equipment impairment loss 6 mil. Otherwise should be profit 10 mil. That's the profit amount for next quarter. When the first profitable results out, the uptrend will be explosive. 3 months only ma, cannot wait meh. Even 6 months I also can wait.

Next quarter got forex gain some more. This is what we been waiting for. Throw now? U really wan trick us to Holland. I'll buy more if it really can drop to my cost price.

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-20 09:25 | Report Abuse

after this quarter , there will be profits reporting and it is in the nett cash position now.

Posted by LV1234 > 2015-11-20 09:31 | Report Abuse

i bought in high price at 0.45 and I tot its a profit. Any advice ?

Posted by kakashit > 2015-11-20 09:36 | Report Abuse

ofcoz hold la, my cost 42.5, there is some price manipulation, will recover in a few weeks time, u either buy more or hold

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-20 09:42 | Report Abuse

Buy, eventually it will go up back because stock market is the prediction of companies futures earnings and not the past. It is nett cash position now.

Posted by LV1234 > 2015-11-20 09:43 | Report Abuse

OK. OK. Thanks ya.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 09:47 | Report Abuse

Insane first few minutes... :)
Yeah.. Next q will b profitable. Assuming that the forex has topped, I really don't expect USD to jump another 10% ba.. Actually USD dropped a bit up until now... So possible may even have m2m gain next q.

Sales is a bit concern though...

Posted by Jokerforever7 > 2015-11-20 09:47 | Report Abuse

I just read the quarter report and it stated that the hedge will only completely finish next year June and sept.. Which mean coming quarter report still having the same loss? Any idea?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 09:52 | Report Abuse

If u expect RM to drop another 10% then yes another 8m loss.. But chance of forex to drop is low

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 09:58 | Report Abuse

Good time to stop n decide again... If already buy, u need to digest properly. For those buy this morning, ur avg shld be 43 ba.. It's not too bad I think, r u sure u matched at 45? I'm sure a lot throw at 44 n below.. My 44 not matched :( lol

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-11-20 10:08 | Report Abuse

Losing $$ at Good Market, how about market turn Bad next year?
will lose more or earn $$ from bad market?

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-20 10:11 | Report Abuse

wooooooo 39???

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-20 10:13 | Report Abuse

these are short term investors that are throwing. stock market forecast 6 months ahead

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-20 10:20 | Report Abuse

Nett cash counter , Dont sell . Banks will not chase for their loans,.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 10:31 | Report Abuse

The problem is there's a lot of ppl who think it's profitable this Q and goreng the share price up.
Also, a lot of ppl who too optimistic, all the talk about dividends, breaking 50 cents.

When you blow a bubble, don't be surprised the bubble pops

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-20 10:37 | Report Abuse

suspended again?? Never seen a counter suspended twice in less than 2 hours

Posted by MarketWatcher > 2015-11-20 10:47 | Report Abuse

that 8k selling queue at 41 cents looks tempting :)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 10:48 | Report Abuse

It's pretty surprising the wrong figure is published in the first place.
For the figures to be published wrong TWICE.. that's stupid from bursa.

Such an important information, I'm sure bursa have a 2 man rule in place where the figure is confirmed by 2 person before publishing.
Is the syndicate power really that wide, until can effect things in bursa?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 10:50 | Report Abuse

Please buy the 8k Q MarketWatcher :P

Posted by ChinKeng Lee > 2015-11-20 10:54 | Report Abuse

i checked back the announcements and Mr . Thoo kept disposing for 7.6% stake until now 4.4% stake . just be careful on this .

Posted by LV1234 > 2015-11-20 11:16 | Report Abuse

my was match at 45 .. now the counter seem still not moving...
any reason ?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 11:20 | Report Abuse

But, fundamentally, I also will agree next Q gonna be good...
However, at the same time, I've lowered the FY2016 EPS as well, as I'm concerned their sales is not performing

Risks to my assessment.
+ve risk, notion can please surprise me, by getting new customer, or by increasing their product range with existing customer. (what happened with their glass business for example? So many things mentioned by tcf didn't happen d)
+ve risk, QoQ I do believe all segments have bottomed out, so next Q I do expect sales to outperform.

-ve risk, USD increase another 5-10%, it's pretty much confirmed notion will be positive, just positive how much only.
-ve risk, I've also decreased my trust in TCF's future guidance, as the things he said didn't really occur anymore, I would not blindly accept his promises or believe when he say new business d... (HP glass machine business for example)

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-20 12:13 | Report Abuse

thinking of buying up all the 41 sen bulk with some of my friends.....worth it ah?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 12:49 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy, don't just talk only :)

Posted by kakashit > 2015-11-20 12:58 | Report Abuse

jibai Val-Elta, kena cheat by TCF liao, luckily i only bought a little

Posted by kakashit > 2015-11-20 13:01 | Report Abuse

冤枉

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-20 13:41 | Report Abuse

kenanga still remain the TP 43 cents like usual. but the analyst is funny, i think he doesn't know about forex market/outlook and how to calculate/estimate forex hedge.

this quarter forex loss was a lot, due to RM was closed very irrationally low at USD/RM 4.43. it is believed RM was at it's bottom. now RM is climbing back from the irrational range after the FED has getting to clear the market uncertainty as the USD punters are retrieving in pushing USD and start profit taking their USD trade. it's significant, especially after Zeti also claim the RM is undervalued. now it's floating around 4.3-4.25.

so, most likely there won't be forex hedge loss in next quarter. in fact there should be forex hedge gain.

haha, i feel funny when the analyst and quarter report mentioned hedge is not yet expire and see it as a bad thing in future. while i personally don't wan the hedge to expire! haha, because it is a good thing for future that it is not yet expire. haha, so that notion will get back the some of the forex loss as gain!

btw, notion no need super high USD/RM to be profitable, even 3.5 is good enough. 3.8 to 4.2 is very very good for notion.

i personally think the USD will be around 4-4.3 in 2016, which notion will be very happy enjoying the currency advantage while free from another forex hedge loss.

when there is no more forex hedge loss, next quarter profit should be 10 mil, minimally. other than that, notion may gain back it's forex loss incurred in this quarter depend to the currency rate.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-20 13:47 | Report Abuse

kakashit,

val-elta and i already calculated and knew this quarter will be loss making and we did warn u guys. i even explained on the possibilities and risks of both keeping it or letting it go temporary.

i still keep the shares even though it hit 47 cents recently. and yet looking forward to this opportunity to add more. choice is yours.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 14:24 | Report Abuse

I'm the only person who warn of loss here when u all talking abt dividend, breaking 50c and all... Lol. I shld stay quiet now :)