Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-03 17:46 | Report Abuse

Christine: I agree with you that "The main reason of ALL above company profit drop due to they acted not fast enough as other. The most company valuable thing is changes and challenge and create". You will need technology to implement faster actions and you will need money to implement changes and challenge and create." By pointing out what companies need to do, you are not simple! I want to remind every investors in CIMB that I know that the merger of CIMB and RHB carries risk and obstacles. But I don't care because we have Khazanah and EPF behind the deal. In my opinion, these two funds have talented and innovative people that they will be strong enough to solve any difficulties. We already have consumer weakness here in Malaysia and in other global economies, the point is everyone is facing the same problem. The world also will change a lot 10 years from now because we have a lot of difficulties in the next few years. The difficulties are forcing the companies to change that is why we have all the difficulties in our economy in Malaysia too. The two things that will help the world to change will be money and technology. Invest in what will help companies to change you will make money.

Posted by Christine Lee > 2014-11-03 18:34 | Report Abuse

i not so expert than you. i buying the counter is based on investor emotion trend in future towards the stock. i not so concern about the company financial result cause mostly auditor and major shareholder had know before the financial result come out. The counter you are buying must be easy buy n sell otherwise will trapped. Warisan tc is good company but transaction is too low, you will facing very difficult to buy n sell. BAT is quite stable counter in cousumer counter , in tabacco line , JTI had privatised, no other option to choose, will stable, n dividen also stable. Besides, every tax imposed by government in the meanwhile help this counter make more profit because tabacco maker also adjusted the price in the same time. For Brewery sector, try to avoid it, their profit drop( top n bottom line drop together, is very obvious gab n carlsberg lose 30-40% from highest ), it mean competitive each other and market grow had limitation( only non muslim is consumer, the price of brewery are high, very difficult to increased the price to increased the profit in future.)

The benefit of Gst counter can accumulated a bit such as IFCAMSC, SMRT,

One more thing , japanese yen drop only benefit to japan company not the company had business with them, even the yen drop, doesnt mean the malaysian importer import the japan product will be cheaper.

property counter try to avoid it , mostly jump 2-5 times above compared last two years.

When klse index is so high, must be aware a bit oh, sometimes rest is to take longer distance.

Recently QE implemented by japan about the 80 trillion yen, the main reason is effect of increases the gst from 5% to 8 % which weaker their economic down n reverse and their government had delay until further notice. Malaysia people had no experience before, but i believe other foreign fund manager had many experience to using our weaker point to attack our economy...

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-03 19:01 | Report Abuse

Thank You Christine for Everything. I would not be coming to the forum very often in the future. Hope that you keep CIMB for as long as possible. That way I can come back here to look for you again. Good Luck With Everything. I have never met a person who have more knowledge than you have and it is not so important to me either whether you are expert or not. Investing in stocks is a passion for me and I believe it is also for you. Maybe we can be like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger someday. My wishful thinking.

Posted by Christine Lee > 2014-11-03 19:18 | Report Abuse

don need worry, i will save ur email. When right time i will ask advise from you..

Posted by Wan Zuhdi > 2014-11-03 21:15 | Report Abuse

Now u may kiss. :P

Posted by gohlai > 2014-11-03 23:09 | Report Abuse

tongue her babehhh...

Posted by flyingcow > 2014-11-04 13:30 | Report Abuse

drop and drop

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2014-11-04 14:30 | Report Abuse

down and will down even more

Posted by kensen > 2014-11-04 22:58 | Report Abuse

Hi Christine & Kian Leong. Appreciate such valuable inputs but in my view when we plan to invest in CIMB, we need to consider the followings:-

(1) Organic growth of CIMB Group? But apparently this maybe an issue to CIMB as their organic growth is quite stagnant. That is why numerous acquisitions been executed to facilitate the growth of CIMB. Also, that is why they planning to grow their islamic banking as their businesses are not growing if u stripped out their acquisition's growth;
(2) Prospects of the global economies - The corrections in Oct 2014 is the 1st signal of recession and as you understand the cycle of recession is coming. This will last at least 2 years before the recession will be over. During that period, the first to sell down is financial and banking stocks;
(3) Investment banking - This contributed 30% of CIMB Group's PBT. But when market is bad and hence, significantly lesser corporate proposals, this will turn into "black sheep" to their bottomline as cost to maintain investment bankers not cheap. This year and the next 2 years will be bad for them;
(4) Fallacy of mergers and acquisitions - Not all M&A will be an immediate success and this will take considerable long time. And if any recession, this will distrupt the mergers. Further, as the Acquirer they need to pay premium to the purchase consideration & will take long time before shareholders can reap the benefits.

My conclusion is whether the long term return is worthwhile for your stock holding period. If u hold more than 5 years and the return is 25%, do you still think is worthwhile. My view is if u want to go for banking go into small but high growth (in term of ROE) banks due to possibility of M&A. My reason is simple, our GDP is same as Spore but they have only 3 banks. Hence, my preference will be Bank Islam. Is all about risk and rewards and how you want to rebalance. Cheers

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-05 06:34 | Report Abuse

Mr. Kensen, tq for sharing. You have made a series of good points, they are : (1)weak organic growth, (2)global weakness lasting at least 2 years,(3) low M&A activity, and (4) Fallacy of mergers and acquisitions. What is my opinion? There are quite good, you pointed out all the right problems that exist in reality. They all happen everyday. But I also have a solution to solve the problems but it contain two parts:
(1) CIMB has to understand itself first, it has to understand its strength and weakness. There have
to turn their weakness into strength. In the short term,they have to improve efficiency.
(2) The objective is to grow in size to increase competitiveness in the long term. But they haven't have the ability to show that they are able to cut down on cost. The method they need to do is to cut down cost. In other words, (1) think for yourself and (2) go help other people. They have to be able to cut down on cost (internally) so that they can help people (externally) later on.

The poor economic reality can only make them stronger. It is always useless to worry about the poor economy situations. Do something for yourself first and then try to do something that would also bring benefits to yourself for others. The last thing you don't need to do is to worry about a falling sky. As for Bank Islam, it has improves quite a lot in the past few years but I believe all the banks will need to merger to reduce the number of banks in Malaysia. This is a trend that must be done,whether you invest in CIMB or Bank Islam, it is the same. This is just my personal opinion.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-05 10:25 | Report Abuse

Have no fear if you believe in yourself that you are able to judge for yourself so that you know what you are holding on for safe keeping are not "junks". God gave us recession in order for us to get rid of our junks, whether they are old clothing, lousy company shares, or our bad habits. I don't mind if God is giving us two years to get rid of junks (the bad companies). The good news is after two years, there will be fewer junks in the market, a lot of bad companies will bow out, then the stock market will really perform well. I am already looking towards for this year to happen. Like what my friend Christine said in her previous few emails: If some stocks are mistakenly treated also as junks that people want to get rid of, this is a good time to pick. One right shot and all of us can become millionaire overnight after 2 years. Ha!Ha!Ha!Ha! What do you think Christine? I wonder why they don't let CIMB price to fall to RM$4/= if they think this is a junk company?

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-05 10:41 | Report Abuse

What are companies that are not junks during recession:
(1) They have no debts so no recession can kill this company. LIke GUH.
(2) That have very talented and efficient management. Like HLID, MPI, and etc.
(3) They provides services that are indispensable (services always around). The banks or others.
(4) They provides products that are easy to manufacturer and that are indispensable, like drinking water and etc that are cheap to manufacturer.
(5) To become millionaire, you have to realize that you do not need to be very smart.
You just need to know to things: (1) what that is going to be always around and (2) What is cheap to produce therefore is easy to sell.
(6) Gook luck and seize the opportunity when you see one. tq guys for your opinions all these time.

Posted by Christine Lee > 2014-11-05 16:28 | Report Abuse

Let us Share one counter which last few year are investor favourite counter..Zhulian
From highest rm5 and sudden Quarter result drop 50%, this counter price plunge rm1 to rm3.5..today this counter become rm2.1..So again , reading investor emotion is quite important, this counter until today havent revover is due to thailand n domestic sale and havent had any solution to settle it, that why reflect it price after recent 4 quarter results havent improve.

Cimb had drop from rm 9 highest slowly to rm6.2 to rm 6.5. it show something to us, most investor had less confidence about the future of this company. At least the management do something through merging and expand its business to oversea. so this counter if successful merging maybe will back to above rm7 but this counter will fly provided the next two quarter result improve through effect of merging and expansion. so far, cimb in indonesia n thailand are not perform well . Be honest, i don had any share in cimb, just play short term during panic selling pick little , buy rm6.17 and sold rm6.5 recently.

Crude oil slump this few months, of course it is reflect in the oil n gas counter and raise my concern again. i still maintain optimism of oil n gas sector, future still good. If we traced history of crude oil slump and jump, mostly it still effected by political issue rather than economic issue because OPEC and arab saudi can reduce their production if they want. For Russia breakeven is usd80 per barrel, that why for crude oil fall below usd80 barrel, but for long term it will effect the whole world economic include usa itself because usa also a oil producer country.

Today show a strong panic selling in oil and gas counter , of course i buy a bit because i believe the future is still good. Same thing i pick the inari when it drop rm2.1 because it maybe effect in short period n will back to normal soon...

Good luck everybody..don ask me i pick which counter today, very obvious which counter in u got observe the oil n gas sector

Posted by Christine Lee > 2014-11-05 16:32 | Report Abuse

it starts with S..n top ten counter today

Posted by keepeng > 2014-11-05 16:39 | Report Abuse

must be SKPetro

Posted by kensen > 2014-11-06 07:45 | Report Abuse

Christine - Actually on Zhulian,1 factor for the drastic dropped was due to political turmoil in Thailand but the one that the management did not clarified properly is why the Msian sale dropped as well. That raised my eyebrow on corporate governance practice in Zhulian. And price movement of Zhulian from RM3 to RM5 if i not mistaken only started 1 month prior to the announcement of the earnings shock. That was because all the analysts in IB were so bullish about the prospects of Zhulian & those retailers just blindy got caught by this. That is why i always tell people read the analysts' report with some pinches of salts. Take their report just to know the update of the co but concurrently do your homework as well. On their target price pls do some tweaking on their figures.

This also will be the same for the rest like SK Petro and Brahim. But for SK Petro i cannot deny now that their valuation is attractive (PE 13x and forward PE may reach 10x). The order book is huge about RM26.5 billion & they have cluster of oil fields. And oil price can change any time as winter is coming.....

Posted by Christine Lee > 2014-11-06 08:26 | Report Abuse

ZHulian story tell us Don simply just grab the falling knife , not all time buy when people is feared unless u know about the future of this counter very well
in share market, not so depend of data, if u pratice like this, i suggested u better believe all the advise from fund manager, cause they are more pro , full time and more sufficient information than us, don always critised them simply just provide target price and let other investor lose money bacause they also analyse based on computer n software assistance.

We never know whether this counter or oil n gas sector are sunset business and also the price will drop further. but last night crude oil hit usd 76.26 barrel lowest in this 4 year will not suprised cause whole day oil n gas counter drop unceasely.

Usually if no news updated, the price of this counter will continue sink because investor are still in feared. That why world news on crude oil is very important if u wanna to play this counter or oil n gas counter.

Today had a very important news from USA, their mid term election. of course, Mr obama lose in this game, but his opponent team mostly from energy sector are winner in this game. So this news will be stimulate the crude oil recover a bit as u see usa market now. Besides, after midterm of usa election, it will bring goood news to usa market cause it almost same with our election coming, mostly will bring good news by push the share market a bit.

Price is determine by the news n investor emotion during the turbulence market. During the good time market , it flow likely by its technical n fundamental..Good luck everybody...

Posted by kensen > 2014-11-06 09:38 | Report Abuse

Christine - Lol ... I never critised them at 1st place. U just read again what i actually wrote. i actually telling everyone to do their thorough homework on any stocks they buy or to buy not merely believing the research report. Research report is good if you want to get the update but on valuation wise and timing you need to exercise your professional scepticism and utilise all your experiences and knowledge.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-06 09:51 | Report Abuse

Ken, ya you are right. You never state clearly or directly what you really mean on certain issue. Like what you previously wrote, on whether the winter is coming...My question is oil price go up or down on most winters? The next question is oil price go up or down on most summers? You made an optimistic remark that oil price might move upwards because " The order book is huge about RM26.5 billion & they have cluster of oil fields". But you again contradict yourself by saying winter is coming...A positive and negative remarks at the same time. You are very good at doing that. Of Course, we are all stupid we don't know what you mean. The price drop of crude oil is because the US currency is strengthing. The price up of SKPETRO today is because it has a Mahathir as a director in the company. Some funds sold shares, the EPF (invest for the people), but some funds still buy because of this reason, the fund is set up by the previous government and still helps the previous government, the AmanahRaya Trustees Berhad – Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera.

Posted by kensen > 2014-11-06 10:15 | Report Abuse

Kian.. Thanks for the remarks.
Basically, the winter and valuation attractive is not contradicting. Both are supportive view and the "winter" means that energy consumption may go up & this assumption may or may not stand. Certainly, we all have have our view on this matter but i can say to you that the dropping crude oil is not because only falling USD. It maybe because of ending of QE and hence hike in interest rate, shale and sand oil impacts, no mutual view of the OPEC members and also may due to some political reasons. Lots of reasons that we cannot understand even for the reputable hedge fund managers.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-06 10:22 | Report Abuse

Ya, natural gas consumption goes up in winter and petroleum consumption goes down during winter because of the reduced driving. I still don't know what you are trying to prove by telling me you are not contradicting. Which one are you talking about, the natural gas or the petroleum? You said energy but you did not mention which kind of energy again. Of course, opec needs money so they drop a little price to spur sales. Everything is very simple if you get the right facts. The hedge funds are not hard to understand, which ever way they do, they just want to make money for themselves. To support the market, they buy and sell at the same time, in the end, it is those who jump in the bandwagon that is supporting the price of the company shares.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-06 12:04 | Report Abuse

Ken, you are right, you are not contradicting, what you said on the forum are right. But the things you mentioned have already taken place, you merely stated what you now know from the facts but the share prices have reflected all that. For example, one stock dropped from 5 to 3 something because people already knew the effects of ending of QE and hence hike in interest rate, shale and sand oil impacts, no mutual view of the OPEC members and also may due to some political reasons. I wrote this email because I wanted to get your opinion about CIMB. Is it a good buy now?
You never made a guess before. Could you please be more futuristic using old information? You never make a guess and state your arguments. Could you say some good things about CIMB and the merger than will have some possibility of happening in the future? I want to buy some CIMB today. Hope you can help? For example, CIMB has a net profit of 4.609 billion last year while Bank Islam has 539.4 million. You have not speak positive things for CIMB. Could you please do it now?

Posted by kensen > 2014-11-06 13:16 | Report Abuse

I guess you have your have own view whether to buy or not at this juncture. I do not need to tell on financial as u know better & this may be suffice to anwer your question to buy or not. But let make things clear, i never said that CIMB is not a good buy at current price. What i mean that what's your expected return for investing in equity market which will differ from each individual's perspective. If 25% gain (exlc. dividend) for the next 3 - 4 yrs able to satisfy u, go ahead and invest as this is long term stock. For me i prefer the small & high grow one as in long run i can achieve better return. Going forward, maybe turnaround in RBS Asian operations,
improvement in their Thai operation on political stability and delay in removal or smaller of cap of foreign holdings in Indon, good growth in islamic banking, sucesssful integration of co which maybe catalyst to the Group. And also nearer to completion of this mergers u may see some uptrend in this share. At the end, your choice

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-06 14:07 | Report Abuse

Mr. Kensen, tq, you are so helpful. In a recession or forth coming recession, are there any opportunities that we can find on the stock market that can give us more than 25% in return in 3~4 years. What're they could you please tell me, I am already excited about this?
Like you say, CIMB may have a return of 25% gain in price appreciation for 3~4 years, and plus dividend ratio of 3% annual, we are looking at a gain of 34%~37%, on the total investment. Judging the share price of RM6.35 and gain at 34%~37%, it translates to RM2.30~RM2.35 per share for 3~4 years. If I were to buy 100 lots, the cost is RM635,000, I can make about RM230,000 to RM235,000 in 3~4 years, which translate into RM4896~RM6,388 per month. It is not such a bad deal to make 5 or 6 thousand riggit each month doing nothing at all.
Do you have a better deal than this one? Please let me know how it works?

Posted by Win188 > 2014-11-07 07:47 | Report Abuse

any updates about the merger plan?

Posted by force > 2014-11-07 08:23 | Report Abuse

Better buy maybank at lower price la... good time to collect below 10.. will be back soon

Posted by force > 2014-11-07 09:49 | Report Abuse

Amanah saham and epf accumulate maybank

Posted by babu > 2014-11-07 10:50 | Report Abuse

Do any of you know whether CIMB and RHBC will remain listed individually after merger or will they both be merged and only one listed and renamed as CIMBRHBC or will a new MegaBank be newly created after buying out MBSB and listed as MEGAISLAMIC BANK after the merger ?

Posted by countryman > 2014-11-10 19:52 | Report Abuse

Do u think this share will go lower?

Posted by vinvin > 2014-11-12 17:10 | Report Abuse

countryman, it's all depending on the EPF. If EPF keeps on disposing the shares, definitely this counter will drop. EPF has been disposing a lot of other counters too n the counters drop. Trade at own risk

Posted by Vin Cullen > 2014-11-13 10:41 | Report Abuse

Fear out contra Guysss ~~
Heart must be patient! :D

Posted by walau2u > 2014-11-13 10:56 | Report Abuse

It depends on Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (MUFG) as well. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (MUFG) keep disposing................

Posted by Vin Cullen > 2014-11-13 11:09 | Report Abuse

HEHE...GONNA GIVE ANG PAO DURING CNY !!

Posted by Lau Toh Mee > 2014-11-13 18:09 | Report Abuse

Good Luck ALL, bye.

Posted by tingalfred > 2014-11-13 20:51 | Report Abuse

cheap

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2014-11-14 10:50 | Report Abuse

market crash again

Posted by jackson041104 > 2014-11-14 11:57 | Report Abuse

what happen to this counter?

Posted by mrpiggy > 2014-11-14 14:39 | Report Abuse

now is good time buy?

Posted by tingalfred > 2014-11-14 20:00 | Report Abuse

yes no

Posted by moneymatter > 2014-11-15 01:11 | Report Abuse

going to announce quarter result by next week..

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2014-11-17 09:14 | Report Abuse

Activetrader pointed out, this share is so cheap. I owned CIMB, loved it. I don't care what the share price do in the short term. I really like an aggressive CEO, one with long term vision. Now Nazir is the chairman only, but that is still as good. For short term, you will not make much. Think of the long term potential.
1. SEA market, CIMB is in every place already except phil.
2. CIMB IB is the best there is.
3. CIMB service is top notch, i loved it.
4. I still can go to a branch and open account on passbook only, MBB no more.
5. Indonesia is where CIMB is well positioned. And the market tanked already there. This is priced into the stock. But when indon turns around (in one yr time or less), CIMB stands to make good money. So do we.
6. CIMB acted prudently in issuing DRIP, to increase capital based, and the issue new shares to fully solved capital base issue.
7. Now CIMB used this capability to acquire two banks at the same time! This is very aggressive in my opinion and tough to do. But Nazir thinks it is necessary and i also think so too.

Bottom line, short term, tough, long term ok. If you want to accumulate, buy it and hold it and enjoy the dividends. And after some years, this stock will go up a lot imo.
Cheers

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2014-11-17 10:01 | Report Abuse

Market will crash soon...so that why such as good future bank is going down n down

Posted by cn21 > 2014-11-17 10:41 | Report Abuse

agreed...market is going to crash soon...

Posted by vinvin > 2014-11-17 17:12 | Report Abuse

I won't be surprised that the market will prolong this way until the tide changes for the better n no crash at all but up up up......................trade at own risk

Posted by tingalfred > 2014-11-17 18:06 | Report Abuse

I think slowly up. Look at the Japan QE and US growth.

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2014-11-18 11:02 | Report Abuse

No market crash will occur since the deflating oil prices occurred. Actually this is the best time to buy stocks, for the next 1 yr. China will go down a bit more, and people will panic, but relax lah. This is expected.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-11-18 11:08 | Report Abuse

let's see how investors would react after CIMB have announced its 3rd qtr earnings this week.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-18 12:24 | Report Abuse

See, CIMB always think they are the best in Malaysia, while all the eyes are fixed on their performance, they start to show weakness. How can investors and customers have faith in the Bank when the Bank and its employees do not have the faith in themselves, that is why the stock fell a lot lately. The Boss is afraid to tell the employees who looks after the Bank's share price to push up the price of the shares. EPF and Amanah Salem are also scared too. Scared of what, the foreigners' dropping bola. They forgot that CIMB is Malaysia and Malaysia is CIMB! Something start to be missing from their hearts. There is nothing right or wrong on this earth, there are always going to be adversities and challenges and opportunities. You have to have the courage to fight on or else you become nothing tomorrow. What for create a merger Yesterday when Tomorrow comes everyone already thought that you are nothing from what you are doing Today? This is how people sometimes make a dead road for tomorrow for themselves.

Posted by vinvin > 2014-11-18 12:47 | Report Abuse

Well said, Kian Leong Lim!!!

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-18 13:52 | Report Abuse

Hello, vinvin, you are the best. I feel so ashame of myself, I　ｎｅｖｅｒ　ｒｅａｌｉｚｅｄ　ｂｅｏｒｅ　ｔｈａｔ　＂Ｙｏｕ　ａｒｅ　ｔｈｅ　Ｂｅｓｔ．Ｔｑ　ｆｏｒ　ｔｈｅ　ｃｏｍｍｅｎｔ．Ｉ　ａｍ　ｈｏｐｉｎｇ　ｔｈａｔ　ｗｅ　ｔｕｒｎ　ｌｕｃｋｙ　ｂｕｔ　ｗｅ　ａｒｅ．　Ｂｕｔ　ｔｈｉｎｇｓ　ｏｎｌｙ　ｈａｐｐｅｎ　ｏｎｃｅ　ｉｎ　ａ　ｂｌｕｅ　ｍｏｏｎ．　Ｗｅ　ｃａｎ　ｓｔｉｌｌ　ｏｕｒｓｅｌｖｅｓ　ｂｅｃａｕｓｅ　ｔｈｅ　ｈａｐｐｙ　ｔｉｍｅ　ｉｓ　ｎｏｔ　ｏｖｅｒ　ｙｅｔ．　Ａｒｅ　ｙｏｕ　ｈａｖｉｎｇ　ｆｕｎ　ｌａｔｅｌｙ？