Posted by drkervokian > 2014-11-21 16:26 | Report Abuse

the winds of change are coming. fYI http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=statistic_nsdp
today results out. which explains why market down.

Posted by PN17 > 2014-11-21 16:27 | Report Abuse

klse drop because foriegn fund is leaving now. see below link
http://bursamalaysiadailytradestatistics.blogspot.com/?m=1

Posted by RiskManagement > 2014-11-21 16:31 | Report Abuse

the disposal of MUFJ is minimal la...

Posted by win188 > 2014-11-21 16:32 | Report Abuse

drkervokian...look like foreign funds are disposing CIMB.
if like that, is it a opportunity for local fund to buy CIMB ? then we wait for year end window dressing.
pls share your view.
tq

Posted by kensen > 2014-11-21 16:35 | Report Abuse

Win188 - I recommend u to wait and see 1st.

Posted by ganasai > 2014-11-21 16:47 | Report Abuse

let them sell down lah, haha just grab loh. nothing to worry mah. after few years, share price become 10.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-11-21 16:56 | Report Abuse

Bought CIMB at 5.76

Posted by drkervokian > 2014-11-21 17:01 | Report Abuse

agree with risk management. MUFJ still owns a shit load of shares. if they really wanna screw with CIMB they can drop a few million shares at one time. but they only drop few hundred thousand.

win188. u think local fund that interested in CIMB now meh. EPF wanna vote also give cold shoulder. to say that foreign fund leaving i dunnola. if u look at BNM report our M1 money still growing. so money is still in the country or BNM is printing money.

CIMB has a few things going against them.
a) The impending merger where they have to fork out a lot of cash
b) the actual value of share is up in the air for most investors. No credible analyst report on that. or kalau ada please share.
c) Q3 results although still positive is lower than Q2.
d) Not exactly a fantastic dividend payer for financial bank.

so the question is what is the "Bottom"? if i am pyschic then i'd be rich. i just follow what the charts tell me. over sold territory. if u wanna wait somemore then wait until RSI high teens low. then buy... that's like what.. 5.5X ?

So if the merger doesn't happen.
a) MBSB shares will fall to about 2.2X-2.3X; but Q4 dividend will be pretty awesome, and it will go back up
b) CIMB will go back up to 6.5X-6.8X despite the bad results
c) RHPCAP... no idea. dun really care abt the counter.

if the merger confim. Then CIMB shares will stay mix. not up not down. and just wait for the winds depending on Q4's results.

Posted by cchin > 2014-11-21 17:05 | Report Abuse

Velli velli LOW !!

Posted by Christine Lee > 2014-11-21 17:08 | Report Abuse

in share market , one thing very important, can share profit together but not loss..one decision making in investment in indonesia bank sector let cimb learn how poor of their management decision making . domestic market outlook is more toughing plus oversea market continue pump money,,how far it can go further? foreign fund share ratio is not as big as local fund, but they continue disposal of share without local fund support will no end dropping.. follow big fish moving, if no activities of epf, khazanah acquired any share, just stay outside..this round cimb drop is more on their own problem, not big environment factor..the only good news for cimb share will up is cimb must admitted their mistake, cut loss in indonesia bank sector or close business in indonesia..i still remember when temasek holding invest in indonesia also face same scenario, cannot make money( maybe environment not benefit for foreign bank), and sold all bank share to other, unluckily cimb buy with the highest price and cimb proud to announced their market share to indonesia..Now is time for cimb to burn money...hope we are not the one to burn together with cimb..

Posted by hng33 > 2014-11-21 17:09 | Report Abuse

CIMB share have down 3 consecutive days, loss 46sen from RM 6.20 to 5.74. It could further risk to down to strong support level at 5.50, but odds is also favor CIMB to back to test 6.00 in near future. So, downside risk is limited to 5.50, but technical rebound is also expected in ext few days.

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2014-11-21 17:09 | Report Abuse

Haven't reach bottom yet !

Posted by cchin > 2014-11-21 18:01 | Report Abuse

hng33, good catch!

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-21 18:28 | Report Abuse

maybe more lower price to fall on next Monday.

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2014-11-21 18:35 | Report Abuse

Not next monday, is next whole year anytime can pick up， will be lower n lower

Posted by hng33 > 2014-11-21 18:54 | Report Abuse

Global shares lifted by U.S. data and Draghi stimulus hints

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-shares-comfort-u-data-002915394.html

All European market in strong bull now, likely US market will follow tonight, then next Monday should be good chance for oversold stock to rebound. As state earlier, CIMB is oversold for 3 consecutive day, time is due for technical rebound. Based on technical chart, CIMB have limited downside risk now with strong support at 5.50

Posted by hng33 > 2014-11-21 19:36 | Report Abuse

Wall Street set to rise after China cut and Philly Fed

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-set-open-philly-093956912.html

Posted by cchin > 2014-11-21 19:57 | Report Abuse

IF CIMB cannot break RM6.00 next week, then the share is not worth to hold. It is oversold.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-11-21 20:01 | Report Abuse

If CIMB cannot break RM6.00 next week, better take profit for today purchase price and wait at 5.50

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-11-21 20:02 | Report Abuse

You should be buying not selling now! It's only foreign funds flowing out to China! That's all!

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2014-11-21 20:47 | Report Abuse

UMNO will hold its General Assembly next week and as usual, the stock market is expected to move up.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-21 20:51 | Report Abuse

We are already burned by CIMB share price as a shareholder this month. This is the only bad news so far. The good news is the price held near the RM$5.80 level for most of the day, go look at today's chart, indicating there is support at this level. The price started to sink only at the last 30 minutes from 4:30 to 5:00 pm and the drop is only around 5 cent during this time. To the people who are brave and calm, please don't believe so much into the burn talk, this drop could be a good opportunity for people to buy or to wait and see how realistic our judgment of the Bank is. The price drop is a fact among all the other facts too! It is not that the Bank don't make any money at all, despite all the problems, Indonesia still Indonesia 20 years ago and there should be huge potential for rebuilding just like the next China in the future because of its low cost and huge consumer population. In fact, Indonesia's economy is having some problems right now and I　believe people will not be killed so easily by problems as they don't jump down into the sea everyday because they still all want to live anyway they could. The subpar news is they still managed to make RM0.35 per share for 9 months or RM$2.9 billion after tax compared to last year's RM$3.5 bilion. Even Hong Leong Industry selling at near RM$5 does not make this much money. This is not the end of the day for us but I believe it is a losing month for us. The price is near the bottom judging from Today's price movement which has been supported throughout the trading day. I believe the price is retracting but not sliding like there hasn't been any friction on the floor. The merger is still going on, the price if were to come too low can spoilt the merger, maybe it is better to wait and see right now is my opinion.

Posted by Funtrade > 2014-11-21 21:12 | Report Abuse

Previously 9 of 10 investors said CIMB is good to buy at RM7. But now RM5++. "Worther" ??
Worth to buy CIMB because of tiny mini dividends ?? :)

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-21 21:26 | Report Abuse

If you look carefully at the stock graph above you on this page, the line is so beautifully flat most of the time even though it started to drop right after opening, remain flat most of the time, drop more again slightly towards the market close. The full day's buying rate is 60%. The line is so perfectly constructed, the buying rate is 60% still drop 16 cents. There will definitely be a rebound next week.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-11-21 21:53 | Report Abuse

Kian Leong Lim

Concur your view, CIMB is oversold by purposely foreign investor. At the close, there is q buying volume at 5.74, but no more selling for last 10 min after the closed of bidding time. rebound is inevitable next week, especially most of European market now soar more than 2%, expect US today market to follow record triple digit gain.

Posted by vinvin > 2014-11-22 06:13 | Report Abuse

Dji up 91 point on Friday's closing which I think will be a good support for local market on Monday. Trade at own risk

Posted by Flintstones > 2014-11-22 07:29 | Report Abuse

If CIMB resumes its free fall, the next evaluated support is sub RM 4. I would say "invest" carefully guys

Posted by apprentice > 2014-11-22 09:32 | Report Abuse

CIMB RM 4.10? Don't see CIMB falling that low. If foreign funds continue selling, RM 5.00 could be a bottom. That's a good price to pick up CIMB.

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2014-11-22 10:10 | Report Abuse

Bank of course wouldn't die, but the minor shareholders sure will die first. First start dropping slowly, shareholders still in dilema to hold it. Later drop aggressively, then they will be panic rush tosell it. At the end, bank still survive, big shareholder also still survive, only losers is minor shareholders.

Posted by vinvin > 2014-11-22 11:29 | Report Abuse

Just keep it as long term or if u want to accumulate some more when it is low n when ur fund is fully exhausted then sell those counters which have not dropped much n swap to Cimb which has dropped so much n chances of making good profit when the trend reverses. My opinion only. Trade at own risk.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-11-22 12:38 | Report Abuse

CIMB's " Allowance made for impairment losses on loans, advances and financing / Profit before allowances " hit peak in year 2006 before trending downward in the following year. It stopped sliding and reached bottom in year 2012 before started reversing upward trend. Investors would expect more bad news in its earnings for coming 12 months.

Posted by Christine Lee > 2014-11-22 13:23 | Report Abuse

.why the cimb share drop so much ? is it related CIMB NIAGA? the info can be search ownself on the percentage to its cimb group ratio business if interested.

Indonesia, our neighbour country, with 200million population and economic growth 5-7% and banking almost 15-20 growth which attract most foreign bank to do business there. There had 120 license bank and will be short to 80 bank future.U can seen the competitive exist between local n local or local vs foreign bank with so many bank in indonesia.

That why Indonesia apply new rules for Foreign bank to run business in indonesia,
1)all foreign bank must registered/ convert to "PT" company within five years instead of " branch " they are using, what is difference between PT and Branch?
eg, Cimb Niaga are not allowed to transfer money to CIMB HQ which will cause liquity or cash flow tight to its management under new rule.

2) all foreign bank majority max up to 40%..what is mean? that mean u cannot control your own company, based on international rule if BRASAILE III agreement, any foreign bank investor who are not able to fully control their own company, they must increased their capital to protect from the risk management in other words increased their capital loh.. Cimb Group had almost 90% of cimb niaga, so if cimb still wanna to do business in indonesia , they had no choice to sell cheap cheap price to other to fulfil their requirement/ lower the share from 90% to 40% in future..

Remarks: DBS singapore due to this new rule had cancelled their plan to buy over the one of indonesia local bank, besides another local bank in indonesia is MAYBANK ..

If we search from share price PT CIMB NIAGA latest 3 month history price after this new rule introduction from indonesia parliment, this counter cimb niaga had accumulated 20% drop .
any hints or info related with its mother share CIMB?

personal thinking, banking is traditional business and very profitable market, it is common their government wanna to protect their local bank due to politic or other issue. so Far philiphine is allowed foreign bank to own 100% share , cut loss in indonesia market n invest in philiphine market? It Proves market are tough and competitive anywhere especially in oversea market...

so everybody how u think it will reflect the cimb price future? bluechip, EPF favourite, Prime minister brother company, so what?

Without good management , strategy, innovative, well planning before enter new market or oversea market, the rusults is burn load truck of money to learn experience..

Posted by Up_down > 2014-11-22 14:05 | Report Abuse

MUFJ has reduced its holding gradually since early last year due to unfavourable future prospect. Will the current trend prevail?

Posted by apprentice > 2014-11-22 14:05 | Report Abuse

Christine, the 40% does not apply to CIMB as CIMB Niaga came into being before the 40% rule was enforced.
However, should CIMB merge with RHB, MBSB, CIMB has become a new entity, thus, required to comply with the 40% rule.
Maybank have been pressured to reduce its holding in BII. So far it has been reduced to below 80% and Maybank has informed the authorities that Maybank will only sell down if they are paid the same price they paid for BII.
Maybank and CIMB went into Indonesia to 'rescue' their financial institutions during the crisis of 2008. Now they turn around and bite the hands that saved them.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-22 14:24 | Report Abuse

Some people thought that they can do everything with their body parts, they can fly, swim, run, jump, or burrow underground. But for me, I think a company is just like a human being, it has some handicapped in some way currently that it can not do so well now, but it can still do a lot of other things. Not everyone is good at doing everything very well. As long as we can live with some of our deficiency, I　think we are going to live. For CIMB, it has a net asset per share of RM$4.40 right now. With this amount of asset, as long as it can make RM$0.45 per share every year, I am already happy. This is because at current business condition it is making 10% net profit. Just because I can not sing so well like Lim Ching Hsia my husband should dump me is a fallacy. I don't think so because....! Even though I can not sing that well, I can still do a lot of other things well. Maybe I can learn how to dance better and my husband will like me for it! Right or Not?

Posted by Flintstones > 2014-11-22 14:39 | Report Abuse

The problem with your analysis Mr. Lim is the share price of CIMB is RM 5.70. Are you happy with a company that makes RM 0.45 on RM 5.70 on peak industry cycle which is equivalent to a 8% return?

Posted by apprentice > 2014-11-22 14:49 | Report Abuse

Whats flying and swimming or singing got to do with CIMB? Comments need not be condescending nor belittling. Just put the facts without the Grandma story would be fine.

Posted by Lonaldo Lo > 2014-11-22 14:52 | Report Abuse

Kian leong lim: you are fall in love in this counter, that why most bad news from cimb u will prefer accept it . It is good u had confidence about this counter. Be frankly, if u are had this counter few year, i don think your results is good.. are u expected current price with your investment since u buy this counter ? If u cannot predict your own price target after few times, this mean we are not understand well about this counter n not suitable for us..try to view on difference angle if u do not any single lot of this share, then ur analysis is still same with previous, then only one word, persistent..

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-22 14:55 | Report Abuse

Yes, I am because it is a Bank. You forget that it is a safer and low risk investment by investing in a major Bank, its payback doesn't have to be so high. It doesn't need to own a lot of fixed assets. Banks basically lend out money they get from deposits and loans. As long as its loan loss is around 1 percent of their net tangible asset they can be consider as a good bank by Warren Buffett. If that condition is met, it is a good bank. Actually, CIMB is a safer investment than some other company like skpetro or what which has 10 billion debts. I don't have the kind of mentality that a lot of money must drop freely from the sky　ａｎｄ　ｏｎｔｏ　ｍｙ　ｒｏｏｆ. 　Ｔｈｉｓ　ｉｓ　ｔｈｅ　ｏｎｌｙ　ｐｒｏｂｌｅｍ　ｏｆ　ｍｙ　ａｎａｌｙｓｉｓ，　Ｉ　ｍｕｓｔ　ａｄｍｉｔ　ｔｏ　ｔｈｉｓ．　Ｍｒ．　Ｆｌｉｎｔｓｔｏｎｅｓ．

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-22 15:06 | Report Abuse

Lonaldo Lo, you talk like some kind of professional, may Ｉ　ａｓｋ　ｙｏｕ　ｗｈａｔ　ｄｉｄ　ｙｏｕ　ｄｏ　ｗｉｔｈ　ｙｏｕｒ　ｈｅａｄ　ｗｈｅｎ　ｙｏｕ　ｒｅｃｅｉｖｅｄ　ｂａｄ　ｎｅｗｓ　ｆｒｏｍ　ｃｉｍｂ．　Ｄｉｄ　ｙｏｕ　ｂａｎｇ　ｙｏｕｒ　ｈｅａｄ　ａｇａｉｎｓｔ　ｔｈｅ　ｗａｌｌ　ｏｒ　ｗｈａｔ　ｄｉｄ　ｙｏｕ　ｄｏ？　Ｔｈｅｒｅ　ａｒｅ　ａｌｗａｙｓ　ｇｏｏｄ　ａｎｄ　ｂａｄ　ｎｅｗｓ　ａｔ　ｔｈｅ　ｓａｍｅ　ｔｉｍｅ！　Ｉ　ｈａｔｅ　ｐｅｏｐｌｅ　ｊｕｓｔ　ｓｔａｔｉｎｇ　ｔｈｅ　ｂａｄ　ｎｅｗｓ　ｔｈａｔ　ｔｈｅｙ　ｇｅｔ　ｓｏｍｅｗｈｅｒｅ　ｗｉｔｈｏｕｔ　ｔｈｉｎｋｉｎｇ　ｐｒｏｐｅｒｌｙ　ａｎｄ　ｓａｉｄ　ｕｓｅｌｅｓｓ　ｔｈｉｎｇｓ．Ｗｈａｔ　ｃａｎ　ｙｏｕ　ｄｏ！　Ｓｏｍｅ　ｐｅｏｐｌｅ　ｔａｌｋｅｄ　ｌｉｋｅ　ｗｏｎｄｅｒ　ｗｏｍｅｎ　ａｎｄ　ｓｏｍｅ　ｐｅｏｐｌｅ　ｔａｌｋ　ｌｉｋｅ　ｓｕｐｅｒｍａｎ，　ｔｈｅｙ　ａｒｅ　ａｌｗａｙｓ　ｔａｌｋｉｎｇ　ａｂｏｕｔ　ｃｒｉｓｉｓ　ｔｈａｔ　ｔｈｅｙ　ｃａｎ　ｎｏｔ　ｄｏ　ａｎｙｔｈｉｎｇ　ａｂｏｕｔ　ｂｕｔ　ｔｈｅｙ　ｓｔｉｌｌ　ｃｈｏｏｓｅ　ｔｏ　ｔａｌｋ　ａｂｏｕｔ．　Ｉｎ　ｌｉｆｅ，　ｙｏｕ　ｄｏｎ’ｔ　ｔａｌｋ　ｊｕｓｔ　ａｂｏｕｔ　ｂａｄ　ｔｈｉｎｇｓ，　ｙｏｕ　ｔａｌｋ　ａｂｏｕｔ　ｗｈａｔ　ｉｓ　ｒｅａｌｌｙ　ｇｏｏｄ，　ａｎｄ　ｗｈａｔ　ｗｅ　ｃａｎ　ｄｏ　ｎｏｗ．　Ｔｈｅ　ｐｒｉｃｅ　ｄｒｏｐ，　ｃｏｍｍｏｎ　ｓｅｎｓｅ，　ｗｈｅｒｅ　ｉｓ　ｙｏｕｒ　ｅｘｐｅｒｉｅｎｃｅ．　Ｔｈｉｓ　ｉｓ　Ｎｏｖｅｍｂｅｒ　ａｎｄ　Ｎｅｘｔ　Ｍｏｎｔｈ　ｉｓ　Ｄｅｃｅｍｂｅｒ　ａｎｄ　ｙｏｕ　ｅｘｐｅｃｔ　ｔｈｅ　ｐｒｉｃｅ　ｔｏ　ｔａｋｅ　ａ　ｂｉｇ　ｊｕｍｐ　ｉｎ　ｙｅａｒ　ｅｎｄ．

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-22 15:13 | Report Abuse

I　ｗａｎｔ　ｔｏ　ｔｅｌｌ　ｓｏｍｅ　ｐｅｏｐｌｅ　ｔｏ　ｇｏ　ｒｏｂ　ｔｈｅ　ｂａｎｋ　ｂｅｃａｕｓｅ　ｔｈｅｙ　ｄｏｎ’ｔ　ｌｉｋｅ　ｔｏ　ｈｅａｒ　ｇｒａｍｍａ　ｓｔｏｒｙ！　Ｔｈａｔ　ｏｎｅ　ｉｓ　ｑｕｉｃｋｅｒ．　Ｙｏｕ　ｄｏｎ’ｔ　ｈａｖｅ　ｔｏ　ｌｅａｒｎ　ａｎｙｔｈｉｎｇ　ｂｅｆｏｒｅ　ｙｏｕ　ｄｏ　ａｎｙｔｈｉｎｇ．

Posted by Lonaldo Lo > 2014-11-22 16:29 | Report Abuse

Good or bad news just normal. If i had cimb, just paper loss, most important is see how cimb overcome it, if my personal thinking is they cannot have better solution to settle it, the longer time taken, loser will be cimb and shareholder. Debt is important key, but if their the money to expand its core business in right way as investor expectation. this is normal to any company. if u think next 2 quarter will improved a lot, then hold . If we think next two years will not improve, sold n wait another 2 years. No need to share the loss with cimb for few years even u are fall in love this counter..

Posted by xncziyi44 > 2014-11-22 21:11 | Report Abuse

all said should we sell or buy?5.7:5.0;or lower?

Posted by Christine Lee > 2014-11-22 22:34 | Report Abuse

xncziyi44:we dun know bottom price or rebound price, follow big fish moving , if EPF or other local fund had acquired any share, then follow , dun acted faster than them, it is not the good time to be hero..Agree with the view Lonaldo, never fall in the love with counter, we believe the " the God we Trust" $$$ as written on US DOLLAR ,our hard earn money, invest carefully ..In stock market, especially big share holder they are very clever with strong bullet, of course not stupid and sometimes stupid also pretend only. If one big fund MUJF keep disposing cheap price to us, in the same time no other local fund( EPF, Amanah Saham, etc) pick up the order, why we should we acted smart to pick the falling knife?
Are they stupid or overfear just sellling cheap cheap to us or we are gonna acted hero to protect this share? just silly thought n sharing, hope will not influence your buy/sell..good night..

Posted by kensen > 2014-11-22 23:23 | Report Abuse

All, what i can said never fall in love with your stocks despite of all the fundamental reasons and how good is the Company. Treat your stocks like prostitutes. Despite how good the Company, the market may not be conducive enough for you to invest. If the technical & market is so bad (falling knife), why invest now as we can still invest at much lower price. Pls remember, this our money from blood and sweat and hence, when investing our goal is to make money.

Pls remember, Warren Buffet is a different type of investor. Everyone can said they are using his style of investing but to what extent that you can replicate his style. I guess no one. Cheers

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-11-23 07:12 | Report Abuse

Ｉ　ｔｏｏｋ　ｔｈｅｓｅ　ｉｎｆｏ　outｆｒｏｍ　ｒｅｐｏｒｔ　ｅｎｄｉｎｇ　Ｓｅｐ　３１，２０１４．This is just to let you know how bad your situation is:
Loan loss provision for 9 months 602 million
Share Capital is 8.3 Billion
Loss per share due to provision is 600 million/8.3 Billion shares=RM 0.072 per share
After making this provision, net asset per share is RM4.4/=.
Current trading price of RM5.74 per share is 5.74/4.4=1.3 times net asset.
For example, Maybank net asset per share is RM5.19 per share and
trading at RM9.56/RM5.19=1.84 times net asset.
Right now if they lost all the provision they can lost only 7.2 cents per share and
price is trading at 1.3 times net asset. Over the last month, share price has plunged
by RM7-RM5.74=RM1.26.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-11-23 11:45 | Report Abuse

May be you would say CIMB is seriously undervalued by applying Price/NTA method when comparing with Pbbank 2.73 times.

Posted by ganasai > 2014-11-23 12:00 | Report Abuse

no need talk nta. undervalue or not is based on pe. Pbbank stock price why so high, because it is just worth and reflect with it's eps. But you can accumulate cimb now, if you think, their business can turn to good in one or two years.

Posted by KitTheungmakmak168 > 2014-11-23 13:27 | Report Abuse

~ if one bluechip ctr continue lau sai,u think overrall market and orher ctr still can survive?they sure will do something de, see how u clever can get in wht price to in only~

Posted by KitTheungmakmak168 > 2014-11-23 13:29 | Report Abuse

This is a blue chip bank stock, if something happen on it, then bursa kasih cuci cuci liao~haha