Posted by sjwee3 > 2022-08-26 09:53 | Report Abuse

while retailers collect the big shark dumping that is quite fair right?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 10:18 | Report Abuse

HY Complex refinery margin update - 26/08/22
...........

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 45.95/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 34.30/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (10.00 + 3.96) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 13.96/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 45.95 ) + (0.07 x 34.30) + (0.35 x 13.96)+ (0.12 x 13.96)
= 21.14 + 2.40 + 4.88 + 1.67
= US $ 30.1 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $30.1/brl) x (MYR 4.4/USD)
= 1.417 Billion MYR
...................

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 10:18 | Report Abuse

It is for certain that HY hedging loss / gain will be neutral soon.. i.e zero.

.....

If not in Q2, it will be in Q3...and then even gain after that.

hedging gain /loss only occurs when a variable is changing such as expansion or contraction of margin (price difference between refined products & feed crude), or the oil price changes...

as long as the change in these variable is not on the same direction continuously indefinitely, the hedging gain / loss will eventually come to a stand still...and reverse when the direction changes

its like the tail catching up with head and going at same speed eventually.

at times the tail speed is slower (hedging loss) and at times faster (hedging gain)...but it can never runaway from the average head speed (the gross profit).

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-26 10:43 | Report Abuse

locked profit at 5.70-5.72

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-26 10:45 | Report Abuse

to buyback if on more weakness

Posted by zacklim1688 > 2022-08-26 10:47 | Report Abuse

too bad, hng33 who is great promoter also run away.

Posted by NoviceJ > 2022-08-26 10:50 | Report Abuse

Hope that your forecast profit will come true Base on Probability estimate and if we work out the sum
1417/300=4.72
4.72X4Q=18.89 per year profit
Guess what will the share prices be

Posted by FreshMango > 2022-08-26 10:53 | Report Abuse

open result day

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 10:54 | Report Abuse

need to deduct manufacturing, s&A cost etc..interest and tax before arriving at PAT and EPS

Posted by NoviceJ > Aug 26, 2022 10:50 AM | Report Abuse

Hope that your forecast profit will come true Base on Probability estimate and if we work out the sum
1417/300=4.72
4.72X4Q=18.89 per year profit
Guess what will the share prices be

Posted by maf1964 > 2022-08-26 10:54 | Report Abuse

donny belowski....pity your mother never taught u maners. have repoted u for abuse, hope they ban u

Posted by maf1964 > 2022-08-26 10:55 | Report Abuse

a coward who hides behind a fake name. pretty sure u must hv lost a bit when HY dropped. ha ha ha

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 10:57 | Report Abuse

use the below as a very fair guidance

Posted by Johnzhang > Aug 14, 2022 4:15 PM | Report Abuse

Hi probability, Thanks for the explanation.

Total expenses after GP (ie manufacturing, Adm, Dep & Amortisation, Finance) was $95M for Q1 2022, $100M per qtr average for 2021 and $106M per qtr average for 2020. Your $80+100 M = $180M expenses for Q2 is well above the actual in recent qtrs and therefore with huge buffer built-in.

Your estimated GP is $1,056 M
less hedging loss ($100M)
less Expenses ($180M)
-------------------------------------
PBT $776M

Tax $100m @24% ($24M)
Tax $676M @33% ($223M)
-----------------------------------------
NPAT $529M
EPS $1.76

The upside are :
1. lower expenses than the $180M built-in the calculation
2. Higher GP from significantly higher Diesel yield (46 vs 34%) and lower Fuel oil.

The reservation i have if the Management's actual hedging deviate from the model described by you. Let's wait for the QR with much excitement.


We look forward to the exciting QR.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-26 11:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by lee77 > 2022-08-26 11:09 | Report Abuse

All investor is worry about the hedging loss... ???

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-08-26 11:10 | Report Abuse

Everybody’s neck is very long and waiting for result to be out.

Posted by rr88 > 2022-08-26 11:20 | Report Abuse

OTB came out from hiding oredy? He did not cut loss earlier but sure sold at some loss too soon otw up dy. Just diam2.

Sell now. Bad news:

BEARISH BREAKDOWN at 5.58 of a pennant formation.

Pennant height at base on 24/8 = 6.08 - 5.08 = 1.00

Target = 5.58 - 1.00 = 4.58.

Btw CLEARLY MARKET IS TOPPISH ACROSS THE BOARD. The only way forward is: DOWN

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-08-26 11:21 | Report Abuse

Glove few Bil profit also no use - ASP collapse

Same story here..today QR wont matter b’coz crack spread alrdy collapse

Posted by NoviceJ > 2022-08-26 11:35 | Report Abuse

If the share prices is @RM18.89 I'm a Very very happy man
Thank you Probability for the clarification

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-26 11:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CityGuy2022 > 2022-08-26 11:41 | Report Abuse

Your logic, glove ASP price up share price maintain because ASP price will go back down.

ASP down, price go further down? Only direction is share price forever depressed?

Might as well don't go listed, because forever the price should not go up?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 11:43 | Report Abuse

its very very probable for this TP to come true by Dec 2022, provided the below crack spread maintains till end of the year and russian oil sanction takes place by 5th Dec 2022 as decided by EU.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

almost certain with the above two conditions

Posted by NoviceJ > Aug 26, 2022 11:35 AM | Report Abuse

If the share prices is @RM18.89 I'm a Very very happy man
Thank you Probability for the clarification

Posted by Datokim > 2022-08-26 11:43 | Report Abuse

Start collecting again below 5.5

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-26 11:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-26 11:54 | Report Abuse

No more volume and yet so RED???.....is this a joke????

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-26 11:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-26 11:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by IndianG369 > 2022-08-26 12:02 | Report Abuse

We break legs.Watch out attackers.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-26 12:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-26 12:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Datokim > 2022-08-26 12:15 | Report Abuse

Collected 5.44 to 5.48

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-08-26 12:16 | Report Abuse

Just talk to internal people, he told me to close both eye and buy. Look at the drop keep on dropping, very uncertain whether I should go in.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-26 12:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-26 12:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2022-08-26 12:27 | Report Abuse

Sell dato kim.heng yuan will fall below rm 4.no ong.rm 5.40-rm 5.50
26/8/2022 12.26pm

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-26 12:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by IndianG369 > 2022-08-26 12:33 | Report Abuse

Thank you Jerichomy , We drink your mother and wife milk and also eat their pancake.Break leg not so painful.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-26 12:34 | Report Abuse

All know this is the best ever Q result and the coming Q results will be lower

Having said so I think HY China Boss is kind enough to push price up by 50% fm RM4 to RM6, letting some to cut win or cut loss

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-26 12:37 | Report Abuse

Initially I thought at best Boss will push a bit after Q result is out, as many are stuck at RM6+

Then China Boss hiong hiong push to Rm6.00+ few days b4 Q result.......really unexpected

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-26 12:38 | Report Abuse

Those CW holders really happy

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-26 12:51 | Report Abuse

CharelesT,
I do not understang why Petronm good Q2 result but this morning price still drop.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-26 12:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-26 12:59 | Report Abuse

Gloves not one really know the ASP except insiders.

The refining margin cracks spread for mogas, diesel and jet fuel are public available information and everyone can monitor daily.

By the way to build an oil refinery the cost is very high in multi billion USD and take mamy years to build unlike glove factory.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-26 13:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-26 13:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-26 13:08 | Report Abuse

SSLee, stock mkt is more abt EXPECTATION....not 1+1=2 maths

Posted by tehka > 2022-08-26 13:08 | Report Abuse

No limit up or limited up today it seems.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-26 13:09 | Report Abuse

Mkt (or smart money) is always fwd looking

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-26 13:10 | Report Abuse

If in 2021 petronm at low refinimg margin and Petronm still able to acheive EPS of 88.5 cents and give 20 cents dividend.

With better refinimg margin and much improved retail petrol sales moving forward, i will just keep collecting Petronm and hopefully will be in top 30 Petronm shareholders list someday.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-26 13:11 | Report Abuse

U can see the same in Glove, Plantation earlier on

Prices peaked n started to drop before ASP/ CPO/ Q results started to drop

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-26 13:11 |

Post removed.Why?