exactly sslee, their hedging position is in gasoline where the margin is thin for protection
thats why they made huge money in Q2 with the gain in Diesel and Jet Fuel crack
Posted by probability > Aug 31, 2022 9:16 AM | Report Abuse X
The most likely commodity hedging that caused the unrealized derivative loss is the Gasoline.
Note that the crack spread of gasoline jumped from 10 USD/brl to 32 USD/brl from Q4 21 by end of Q2 22
Say they hedged 10 million barrels 'gasoline - brent' crack by end of 2021 (considering the intent to secure relatively good margin in Q4 21' compared to avg of only 7 USD/brl last few years).
They would have bought brent crude at 100 USD and sold gasoline at 110 USD/brl in futures market with maturity of 2 years (end of 2023).
The above means they have a margin swap hedging contract valued at 10 million barrels x 10 USD/brl = USD 100 million expiring by Dec 2023.
Now by end of Q2 , the gasoline margin had expanded to 32 USD/brl.
They would need to mark to market the hedging contract status by end of Q2
This means they will report an unrealized hedging loss of 10 million x 22 USD/brl (crack expansion from their hedging to 32 from 10), which equal 220 million USD.
Now by end of Q3, if the present crack maintains for gasoline, the crack would drop back to 10 USD/brl resulting with zero hedging loss.
They can choose to realize the hedging by this qtr without affecting the P&L at all or they can do it when another opportunity arise before end of 2023 (but they must realize before the maturity).
Focus on your judi is more important leh. Cerita panjang lebar on those crackspread is no use leh. Ctr depend on want to goreng or not only leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
Haiyoh.. IDSS keep double down. Better to cover loh... if become red good lah, but later if not become red, susah loh, where to find the volume to buy back low?
This is their choice mah. Last last shortists win juga lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
tehka
Haiyoh.. IDSS keep double down. Better to cover loh... if become red good lah, but later if not become red, susah loh, where to find the volume to buy back low?
Haiyoh Ular already in YAB new taligam group leh. But Ular inactive there lah. Sifu also in his taligam group also ada contribute input lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
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hng33
20,009 posts
Posted by hng33 > 2022-09-01 09:05 | Report Abuse
Hengyuan, see you next Q3 to re-enter back