Posted by Sharewire > 2022-08-31 22:11 | Report Abuse

mm maybe gay

Posted by probability > 2022-08-31 22:18 | Report Abuse

Asia oil/products: Dubai slumps 5% on expiry, diesel cracks near $50/b.

1h ago

https://www.qcintel.com/article/asia-oil-products-dubai-slumps-5-on-expiry-diesel-cracks-near-50-b-8166.html

Products


Gasoline offers along the curve at a premium to the swaps price weighed on the cash market, with Total looking to sell a 92 RON cargo for loading 15-20 days ahead at a $1.60/b FOB Singapore premium to swaps and PTT for loading 20-25 days ahead at a $1.80/b premium. Cutting $0.50/b from the physical assessment, that translated into a flat price fall of a chunky $11.62/b to $96.81/b, with the spot crack to Brent falling $5.25/b to just +$0.57/b.

Jet saw Aramco, PetroChina and Unipec as the sole participants in the cash market again on Wednesday, with the latter offering down a cargo for loading 15-19 September to a $3.50/b FOB Singapore premium to swaps pricing around 17 September. That shaved value off the front of Quantum’s cash curve and lowered the differential assessment $0.08/b from Tuesday to a $2.71/b premium to the curve. Translating into a flat price down $5.89/b at $139.27/b, that left the spot crack to Brent up $0.48/b at +$43.03/b.

The diesel 10ppm market saw Aramco offer down a cargo for loading 15-20 days ahead to a $1.90/b FOB Singapore premium to the curve while Total bid for 25-30 days ahead cargoes at $2.70/b, with neither side being hit. That was enough to flatten out the structure of the cash curve, however, and averaged out it took $0.05/b from Quantum’s cash assessment to leave the physical market assessed at a $2.06/b premium to swaps. That left the 10ppm spot price down $5.14/b at $145.43/b, with the spot crack to Brent up $1.23/b at +$49.19/b.

Posted by beinvested > 2022-08-31 22:25 | Report Abuse

Yes, the public got the shares at the open market price, i. e. RM5 or RM6 a share

Anybody know about the disposal price for a share by Shell then?

Posted by beinvested > 2022-08-31 22:29 | Report Abuse

10 sen dividend for a Share is very good already.
The controlling stake also need to have some returns.
If this is the 1st time receiving the div, the capital invested is now RM0.90 a Share

Wow to those companies that giving RM6 for each 1,000 shares and the paid-up capital at the IPO was RM0.10 a share, and good enough if compare to RM0.05 a share, then issued shares will be multi billions

This IPO should be RM1 a share, SC/KLSE should do reformasi

Posted by BlessedInvestor > 2022-08-31 22:44 | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Diesel-Prices-Are-Back-Above-5.html
U.S. Diesel Prices Are Back Above $5

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Aug 30, 2022, 11:00 AM CDT

Low inventories sent the national average diesel price in the United States back above $5, the first weekly price increase in more than two months.

Distillate fuel inventories in the Northeast are particularly low, with supplies of diesel fuel and heating oil in New England currently 63% below the five-year average.

There is a growing fear that an extreme weather event could significantly disrupt distillate supply in the North East.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-31 22:50 | Report Abuse

Why Q3 22 will no longer have the unrealized hedging loss reported in Q2 when mark to market is done on their hedging positions?
................................

You can view absolute price of each commodity (refined products) here:

Diesel:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3AAGX1!

Gasoline:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3AAV01!

Jet Fuel:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3AAKS1!

The message here is that their current pricing is more or less the same as it was at end of Mar 22 (as per Q1 22 mark to market unrealized hedging loss).

These refined products market pricing at end June 22' (Q2 22) is exceptional one-off figure that gave huge unrealized derivative loss when mark to market.

End of Q3 22' market pricing of these products will be somewhat similar to Q1 22' and thus the unrealized derivative loss will be back to similar level.

It has nothing to do and will not affect the gross profit of Q3 22 derived using avg crack spread.

Posted by stockwin > 2022-08-31 22:56 | Report Abuse

Thank you @probability. You deserve a good rest for the celebratory firework tomorrow.

Posted by vtkt123 > 2022-08-31 22:58 | Report Abuse

Thank you @probability ..

Posted by ccs999 > 2022-08-31 23:09 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow limit up for sure.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-08-31 23:22 | Report Abuse

See oil price heavy drop (WTI left usd90) alrdy know HY collapse tomorrow

Just dunno whether collapse b’coz oil drop or bad QR (record comprehensive loss -400Mil @ after include hedging loss 1.07Bil)

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-08-31 23:23 | Report Abuse

Easier if limit down tomorrow

Then know collapse b’coz both (oil drop + bad QR)

Posted by sonyx123 > 2022-08-31 23:26 | Report Abuse

@Probability. Could you explain why the pricing for D1N1 trend is much different, while seems to be coming down to normal level? Which in theory should be the right one to look at

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Posted by Picanto > 2022-08-31 23:31 | Report Abuse

Let me present these facts and you guy interpret by yourself.

1) In 2021 AR, Note 19 (a), the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) was USD265.4mil with Gross Margin per barrel hedged at range of USD8-USD12.30 and contracts maturity date from Jan 2022 to Sep 2024. No one will know the Russia vs Ukraine conflict then, so HY might think that USD8-12.3 is a good margin at that time.

2) At Q1'22 QR, RMSC was USD291mil, at Q2'22 QR, RMSC is USD227mil, meaning USD64mil of RMSC have matured during Q2'22. If use high end of USD12 as margin of these RMSC matured in Q2, USD64mil/USD12=5.3mil barrels. These 5.3mil barrel has a fix margin of USD12 and total profit is RM280mil (remember this is 100% effective hedge, gain in revenue will offset by hedging loss which shown as RM439mil in Note A10 of Q2'22 QR).

3) Total revenue in Q2 is RM6,892mil, average selling price is USD151, use forex of 4.4, this translated into 10.4mil barrels sold in Q2'22. 10.4mil-5.3mil (hedged portion above)= 5.1mil that HY sold at market price/margin. 5.1mil*USD29 margin*4.4 forex= RM650mil. So total gross profit is RM650+RM280 (#2 above)=RM930mil (quite close to the reported gross profit in Q2'22).

4) We do not know how HY structures their RMSC, i.e when are these contracts matured because the contracts period is until Sep 2024 and the maturity date is fixed when the RMSC are entered. But we do know that portion of the volume sold would have a fix margin of up to USD12.3 per barrel (or higher if they entered into new RMSC). The rest would be at market price/margin.

5) If crack spread margin continue to decrease, the overall gross profit of HY will reduce, but their balance sheet position will improve with the lesser MTM hedging losses in liabilities.

6) Some worried about the increase in trade receivables, you can refer to A19 of the Q2'22 QR, most of the balances are current (within 30 days).

Posted by huhaha > 2022-08-31 23:35 | Report Abuse

omg u guys still argue here argue there...lol
tomorrow morning watch out the price

Posted by probability > 2022-08-31 23:38 | Report Abuse

crack spread is against brent (their price difference)

the absolute chart i showed is for Mogas95 - the actual market price

Posted by sonyx123 > Aug 31, 2022 11:26 PM | Report Abuse

@Probability. Could you explain why the pricing for D1N1 trend is much different, while seems to be coming down to normal level? Which in theory should be the right one to look at

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-31 23:47 | Report Abuse

Its a Cracking Joke when the Crack Rate Cracks into a million Cracks

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-09-01 00:09 | Report Abuse

@Probability @Johnzhang @Sslee @Zhugeliang @Hng33
Not sure whether this will be the better example to explain marked to market thingy…
You purchased a bond RM1 mil at 3.8% interest p.a. with a tenure of 3 years. Due to OPR movements, investors’ risk and reward expectation, the market yield of your bond increase to 4.3% and hence causing the market price of your bond now dropped to below RM1 mil I.e. unrealized marked to market loss. However, if you hold your bond until maturity, you will still get your 3.8% fixed interest p.a., with all this marked to market gain or loss will eventually reset to zero on the maturity date as you will get back exact amount principal repayment of RM1 mil from the issuer.
Fair value of derivatives consist of 2 components which is the spot element and forward point (basis swap spread) element. Spot element is like the 3.8% interest element, basis swap spread/cost of hedging is like the market expectation which the unrealized gain/loss will eventually reset to zero on the contract maturity date.
This is why I said losses on cash flow hedge will be recycled to pnl when the settlement is due, whereas losses on cost of hedging will eventually reset to zero upon maturity.

Posted by niktraderinvestor > 2022-09-01 00:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 01:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-09-01 04:30 | Report Abuse

SIALANG HENGYUAN & Petronm!!!! It's going to LIMIT UP today and tomorrow!!!!! =D

Mother shares will shoot to 18.88 soon!!! =D

When Hengyuan hit 19.00 back in 2017/2018...the oil price was only $60pb and crack spread about $8.00...

So the current oil price is sibeh good enough to push the price higher....

THE COMING YEARSSSSSS PROFIT ARE SIBEHHHHHHHHHHHHH AWESOME!!!!!

Syndicates are in for BIG BIG GAIN.... show time!!! =D

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D

Posted by James_Bond > 2022-09-01 05:50 | Report Abuse

Cash out! Cash out! Cash out!

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-01 06:29 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo semua orang tak ada baca Q2 financial report kah:

Itu Q2 HRC physical average finished products sold is USD 151 per barrel and realised derivatives loss for Q2 is RM 438,758,000 YTD RM 870,964,000.

Itu unrealised loss bila jadi realised will be offset by physical gain on products selling price or/and lower cost of purchased

The product prices during 2Q 2022 and
YTD 2022 improved from an average price of USD75 per barrel and USD71 per barrel for the corresponding periods in 2021 to USD151 per barrel and USD133 per barrel

Fair value loss on derivative financial
instruments RM 438,758,000 YTD RM 870,964,000

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-09-01 06:50 | Report Abuse

So active here. It is a good sign. Am going to hoot today.

Posted by Amoneymous > 2022-09-01 07:07 | Report Abuse

Yes dump all Petron and switch to HRC.
According to Q2, company not yet utilized 10% share buy back.
Buy and wait it to fly when company share buy back.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 07:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by cK1973 > 2022-09-01 07:35 | Report Abuse

Morning guys …..
Rasa rasa boleh sampai 10 ….
Eps 2.38, no reason for the market price at 5.35….
Shld move to 6 anytime from now….

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 07:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by pdchs > 2022-09-01 07:45 | Report Abuse

sell on news

Posted by Amoneymous > 2022-09-01 07:53 | Report Abuse

PE 1.9 only

Posted by cK1973 > 12 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Morning guys …..
Rasa rasa boleh sampai 10 ….
Eps 2.38, no reason for the market price at 5.35….
Shld move to 6 anytime from now….

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-01 07:54 | Report Abuse

Need berapa kali LU to reach 10?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-01 07:58 | Report Abuse

Itu AA lain cerita.

Sebelum covid AA sell many months forward flight ticket with Jetfuel commodity hedge/swap. Bila covid flight cancel tak ada relised income tapi itu forward jetfuel swap contract mature with billion of losses.

Post covid AA forward sale flight ticket without jetfuel hedge (sebab hutang billion jetfuel swap belum bayar) so when flight time come pay physical jetfuel yang sudah jauh lebih mahal. So rugi lagi AA. Kapan AA nak untung nasib Tony malang sekali.

Posted by beinvested > 2022-09-01 08:07 | Report Abuse

Now, the ROE is 53% , EPS 280 sen, P/E 1.91

IF P/E is 3 times, 3 years to earn back the investment of the capital employed, the market price will be above RM7

One say is RM3 only, another say RM4, then the controlling stakeholders will not be cowed to accept that kind of propositions

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 08:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-01 08:20 | Report Abuse

Today up or down. Any guesses?

Posted by Amoneymous > 2022-09-01 08:26 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/maa-ups-malaysias-car-sales-volume-forecast-cites-pentup-demand

More car sales, more fuel demand.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 08:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-01 08:32 | Report Abuse

More car sales, more fuel demand
Yes buy PetronM for long term investment. Your friendly PetronM petrol station and convenient store will be at your neighbourhood soon.

Posted by Eldon > 2022-09-01 08:33 | Report Abuse

No sign will limit up leh..TOP only RM 5.55 something…

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 08:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by cedcan > 2022-09-01 08:44 | Report Abuse

Apa cerita hari ini? Limit up or sell on news???

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 08:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 08:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by donnybelowski > 2022-09-01 08:53 | Report Abuse

Uncle bought a lot recently. Waiting for price to go higher and higher. Follow them. Buy.

Posted by Amoneymous > 2022-09-01 08:57 | Report Abuse

Luckily not much up.
Dump my Petron position can buy HRC.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-01 08:57 | Report Abuse

Open gap up 0.10 for 0.10 Div??

Posted by donnybelowski > 2022-09-01 08:58 | Report Abuse

Uncle bought a lot recently. Waiting for price to go higher and higher. Follow otbkyy. Buy

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-01 08:59 | Report Abuse

Never give face to EPS RM2+?????

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 08:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by donnybelowski > 2022-09-01 09:02 | Report Abuse

I told u. This is otbkyy main stock. They bought a lot recently. Waiting for price to go higher and higher. Buy.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-09-01 09:03 | Report Abuse

Locked profit, sold at 5.52-5.60