Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 13:15 | Report Abuse

You teach ular how to shut up lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

MoneyMakers

Ular Shut up & go back to ur TG snake bbq

No need reply my post with ur nonsense

45 seconds ago

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 13:15 |

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Posted by Ahahah > 2022-09-03 13:16 | Report Abuse

Currently the other way round, diesel higher price and better margin. Oversea is willing to purchase diesel with higher premium.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 13:17 |

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Posted by Ahahah > 2022-09-03 13:19 | Report Abuse

Anyone from east m’sia? I was told that Shell petrol station run out of diesel in east m’sia. Can double confirm.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 13:22 | Report Abuse

i am afraid not possible Zhuge

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 3, 2022 1:01 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Ahahah > 11 minutes ago | Report Abuse

@probabilty my English is not good. That is what I try to explain in this morning but rejected by this 3i members.
Beside that they are using petrol to blend with diesel and selling as diesel at good price.
----------------
@probability,
Can gasoline blend with diesel and sell it as diesel after some rework ?
If it is feasible, then it is a good news to Hengyuan.
Please advise.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-03 13:22 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-03 13:23 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 13:24 | Report Abuse

Got alot different diesel n ron 95 meh. Haiyoh. Correct?

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/diesel_prices/

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 13:35 | Report Abuse

HY refinery margin update - 2/09/22 (DIESEL CRACK BLASTED ABOVE 50$/brl!)
...........

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (4.07 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 7.77)+ (0.12 x 7.77)
= 23.18 + 2.70 + 2.72 + 0.93
= US $ 29.5 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.5/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.404 Billion MYR
...................

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 13:40 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-03 13:40 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 13:41 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-03 13:42 | Report Abuse

See Mogas crack turn (-) alrdy know HY dark future

Refineries overproduce when Mogas crack high - now oversupply

Now every refinery in world overproduce diesel @ crack going to (-) also like Mogas

P/s: Mogas crack collapse from usd33 (June) to usd0 (Aug) @ totally collapse just 2months

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 13:42 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-03 13:43 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 13:44 | Report Abuse

@Bob, they hedge at about 18% of their monthly throughput...

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 13:45 | Report Abuse

they forward hedge up to 2 years plus of this amount...

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-03 13:45 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 13:45 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 13:48 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 13:50 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 14:12 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 14:17 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 14:19 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 14:26 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 14:35 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 15:18 | Report Abuse

Oh Like this kah. Only you Suiyee Accountant know kah. Dunno what kak you talk lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


i3lurker

80% 1.5 X 10% Interest 20% Interest

Sales 23,800,000,000 19,040,000,000 28,560,000,000 2,856,000,000 5,712,000,000

Purchases 21,000,000,000 16,800,000,000 25,200,000,000 2,520,000,000 5,040,000,000

5,376,000,000 10,752,000,000

4 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 15:19 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-03 15:26 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo no need BS 20% interest rate

In such scenario, whole world bankrupt lo

Housing market totally collapse @ everyone default cannot pay house loan 20% interest

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 15:26 | Report Abuse

I deleted my posts to make it easier to read since the Dragon copied it already

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-03 15:28 | Report Abuse

You delete is you paiseh dunno what kok you talk kah. Ular know you will delete so keep the kok there lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

i3lurker

I deleted my posts to make it easier to read since the Dragon copied it already

13 seconds ago

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 15:31 | Report Abuse

you too young

Tun sacked Anwar coz Malaysian Interest rates shot up to 30% per annum

as Finance Minister
Tun immediately ordered the 3.8 peg
and ORDERED BNM Governor to reduce interest rates

=> kampung feller like you sure dunno loh !!!


MoneyMakers

Aiyoyo no need BS 20% interest rate

In such scenario, whole world bankrupt lo

Housing market totally collapse @ everyone default cannot pay house loan 20% interest

5 minutes ago

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 15:36 |

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Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 15:37 | Report Abuse

Interest rate went up to 20%+ or 30%+ for overnight mkt in 1998...for a short while

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 15:38 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 15:38 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 15:39 | Report Abuse

so story changed?

If you change story you will die more and die faster coz losses will be even more

thats the problem with lies, you NEED to keep changing them and the losses become more and more everytime story changed

I calculated those interest charges
coz Gang Member claimed all Sales & Purchases are hedged so Guaranteed Heaven Profits

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-03 15:39 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 15:39 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 15:42 | Report Abuse

dun argue interest rates

its old story, not applicable anymore

now gang member says its NOT hedged at all => FULLY exposed to extreme losses

DIE MORE and DIE FASTER

thats the problem with lies, you change it those losses become more and more

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-03 15:44 | Report Abuse

Really nonsense BS 20% interest rate

Totally ignorant leh

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 15:45 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 15:46 | Report Abuse

move on
nothing to see here, just another accident
dun talk old topic

Gang Members say HRC fully exposed since its NOT Hedged

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-03 15:46 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 15:49 | Report Abuse

move along
from now on
This is the NEW STORY

old story of 100% Hedge Sales and Purchases is no longer applicable

=> means HRC fully exposed,
=> Die More, Die Faster


Posted by probability > 22 minutes ago | Report Abuse

The reason why i am certain the hedging is done on mainly on gasoline is due to the following:

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2022-09-03 15:53 | Report Abuse

Genuine Loans / Genuine Hedging / Original Cloned Rubber Stamps / Fat 'Kap Nar' running in the street businesses:
- Serba
- Air Asia
- Perak Transit
- MyEG
- Hibiscus
- Heng Yuan

Original Cloned Rubber Stamps / Fat 'Kap Nar' running in the street businesses:
- PentaMaster
- Greatech
- UCrest
- KeyAsic
- ARBB

.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 15:55 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 15:58 | Report Abuse

@PSAi3alert, i had some respect on you earlier when you tried to expose Serba. But unfortunately, over confidence can make one blind to rationality...

suggest you spend some time going through the derivations, annual report on their refining margin swap, and understand how cost of hedging reserve works before commenting

HY is not the only refinery in the world that reported huge earnings.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 16:05 | Report Abuse

PSAi3alert
You are correct !!
see this

CharlesT > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos.

Second, spend yr time to study the contents of the Author n try to understand n verify so.

Third, check the Author's track records.....I have seen Sifu Probability's earlier analysis in Heng Yuan 1 (2017), Lionind (Steel Party in 2018) ,I think Dayang as well (2019).....

While I cant deny his facts n figures fm his previous posts sometimes do look convincing, but the ending is all the same.

See if we shall see a different ending this round.

Last but not least, back to my first sentence (As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos), it's oredi being proven 100% correct in Bursa for the past 10 years.

Good luck in HY.