Saving ahfah son, sifu sslee & general public mah!
Very noble intention mah!
Posted by UlarSawa > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
No lah. Raider managed to saved himself and also saved AhFah the veggies seller at pudu market and AhFah managed to paid all her son education fee in Australia. And now Raider want to save AhFah son that gamble on HY lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
probability
ha ha even MM beginning to rationalize and realize...
great job MM!
Posted by MoneyMakers > 3 seconds ago | Report Abuse
S’raider u stuck high HY at what price during 2018 collapse (rm19-rm3)??
Now Raider suspect fake hedging lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
eagerinvestor
low margin hedge more u guys shud complain la if high margin hedge more also complain meh? if high margin didnt' hedge enuff u guys complain why such an oppurtunity also didn't hedge it. Maybe hedging is such a bad word for ppl that dun understand it. To those ppl that own a factory, hedging means locking in profit.
Stock investing is not easy during times like this.Russis invades ukraine.USA n gangs sanction russia,n now russia cuts off all gas to EU.China lockdown another city.And here ppl still hv to GUESS hrc boss hedging position.Ular.You met hrc boss before or not?Is he genting vvip guest?Hahaha.
Now Raider suspect fake hedging lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
eagerinvestor
low margin hedge more u guys shud complain la if high margin hedge more also complain meh? if high margin didnt' hedge enuff u guys complain why such an oppurtunity also didn't hedge it. Maybe hedging is such a bad word for ppl that dun understand it. To those ppl that own a factory, hedging means locking in profit.
worry dun buy his stocks lor. dun worry buy lor. what alot of ppl here are trying to say is hedging is normal practise. if we want to tok abt hedging alone.
well explained sslee, they are accounting the unrealized loss not only up till year end but the whole maturity period of the balance refining margin swap contract if i am not wrong (or at least for those that matures next 12 months as someone said earlier)
Posted by Sslee > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
PSAi3alert, For Q2 2022, the RM897.257M profits before tax already included the realised derivaties loss matured on April, May and June of RM 438,758,000.
For H1 2022, the RM 982,535,000 profit before tax already included the realised derivaties loss matured on Jan, Feb, March, April, May and June of RM 870,964,000.
Hence if HRC do not do the hedging the profit before tax should be RM 870,964,000 + RM 982,535,000. Or profit before tax of about USD 20 per barrel.
That is what I say hedging is for during super good time the profit will be less and during bad time your loss will be less.
Since the unrealised derivaties is marked to market on 30/6/2022. Thus a very high unrealised loss because spread margin is almost at peak of USD 40+ on 30/6/2022.
If this peak spread margin presist till year end then H2 will have huge realised derivative loss but then again the physical business of buying crude, refining to finished product and sold the finished product will earned you super super fat refinimg margin of USD 40 per barrel.
You can expect about another 21 million barrel for H2. So do the math.
Yalor. Now Raider is doing his best to save AhFah son from judi HY lah. Just like he saved AhFah last time. Haiyoh. Correct?
eagerinvestor
worry dun buy his stocks lor. dun worry buy lor. what alot of ppl here are trying to say is hedging is normal practise. if we want to tok abt hedging alone.
The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.
This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).
As per accounting rules, this hedged contract (RMSC) has to show the opportunity lost / gained presuming the current crack spread of these refined products at the end of reporting Q2 22' (30 June) persist indefinitely till all hedging contract matures (more than 24 months).
Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) , loss / gain: (A-M) x V
A = hedged crack spread value, 12.7 USD/brl V = barrels volume of refined products hedged, 18 million M = Market pricing of the hedged refined product at end of reporting period (mark to market)
Since at the end of June 22', the avg crack spread of the refined products, e.g gasoline at 31.6 USD/brl, the opportunity lost for the period of hedging is
Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR): = (12.7 - 31.6) USD/brl x 18 million barrels = - 338 million USD or MYR 1,490,267,000
The above is what reported as (Asset 261,065,000 - Liabilities 1,751,332,000)
The above after taxation is placed into 'Other comprehensive (expense)/income' , reported as Cost of hedging reserve (net of tax).
...
Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)
Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR): = (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels = 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000
When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.
When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.
Your are suiyee auditor not suiyee accountant kah. Sori Ular remember wrongly. Anyway also involved account lah. Lagi denied at Taikor there. Haiyoh. Correct?
i3lurker
Raider btw
to make readers aware of transparency some auditors use the wording
=>Amount due to Licensed Broker of Equities/Derivatives so that readers who used audited accounts can know its all kosher and holy. No doubt at all.
I did make that happen to many jobs that we took over from other auditors
but use of different wording does NOT mean Management is quilty of FRAUD. it just means => UNKNOWN source of hedging.
just dun think too much and you will sleep better at nite
All back up by facts & figure lah! Read again very carefully loh!
Why General Raider says Sifu Sslee analysis on Hengyuan is dangerous flawed ?
1. Looking at the balance sheet HRC hedging losses as at 30-6-2022 amounted to rm Rm 1,329M of this sum of losses Rm 1189m or 90% are contributed by just 6 mths of operation result for the latest 30-6-2022 Financial result loh!
2. HRC derivative outstanding liabilities todate is Rm 1,781M whereas is derivative assets is Rm 261m, meaning net derivative negative exposure is Rm 1,520M.....meaning the counter party should be able received payment of Rm 1,520M from Hengyuan, it is just like your share margin losses loh!
3. Then why counterparty did not ask for margin call , since HRC has a huge negative equity of Rm 1520M leh ? Yes the counter party did ask for margin top up and hengyuan already paid, this can be seen from other receivable & prepayment payout increases by Rm 1,542M for the 6 mths mah!
In otherwords, Hengyuan 6 mths operating cashflow b4 working capital changes should be Rm 939m, after less Rm 1542M derivative top up amounting to negative cashflow of Rm 603M mah!
The route to potential financial collapse of Hengyuan, are written all there in the Derivative mah!
Do not get into this trap loh! Despite Hengyuan generated record positive operation cash flow of Rm 939m, its negative cashflow from derivative losses is rm 1,542m ( which already payout as other prepayment} thus HRC negative cashflow is Rm 603M.
Most importantly, Hengyuan borrowing & derivative liabilities had ballooned to Rm 3285M from just Rm 705m as at 31-12-2021 which a staggering increase of Rm 2580M, just within 6 mths and of this sum Rm 1542M is due to margin top up of derivative losses in the form of prepayment mah!
Lu tau boh ? The rot of Hengyuan has intensified alot loh! Be very careful mah!
Posted by MoneyMakers > 18 seconds ago | Report Abuse
S’raider u stuck high HY at what price during 2018 collapse (rm19-rm3)??
hengyuan is commodity player. good eg shud be gold and not shares. if u make losses in gold derivatives and your gold value go up or down in tandemn with the derivatives. u make in physical gold loss money on derivatives. so is lp pl
@raider for you query above: Among the two possibility below derived by sslee, only gasoline fits the hedged crack value as found in 2021 annual report page 130 where the max margin was around 12 USD/brl.
The lowest crack spread closing on 30 June 2022 is only for gasoline around 31USD/brl (others like Diesel & Jet Fuel is way higher). Only using the lowest mark to market crack spread end of June 22, you can derived the low value hedged crack spread as per annual report of about 12 USD/brl. Using gasoline the hedged barrels is 18 millions as derived by sslee. As such, you need to be good in maths to understand how these are deduced.
Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse
Dear probability, The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022 Notional amount: USD 226,945,000 Assets: RM 261,065,000 Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000 Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000
On 30/06/2022: Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578 Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125 Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85 USD to MYR: 4.397
V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels) A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)
Equation: from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397
226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A 9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133 A= 17.586 V=226,945,000/17.586 V=12,904,746
If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58 Equation: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397
226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A 7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133 A= 12.665 V=226,945,000/12.665 V= 17,918,718
The public only had access to MOGAS 92 spread.....which is now negative margin loh!
We do not know, how & where Hengyuan very huge derivative losses come about, whether bcos selling or buying Crude, Gasoline or Diesel or Forex or a combination of all these loh!
Or is it really a fake....derivative structure to siphon out the value of hengyuan business mah!
Posted by probability > 36 seconds ago | Report Abuse
@raider for you. Among the two possibility below, only gasoline fits the crack hedged value as found in 2021 annual report page 130 where the margin max was around 12 USD/brl. The lowest crack spread closing on 30 June 2022 is for gasoline only around 31USD/brl (other like Diesel & Jet Fuel is way higher). Only using the lowest, you can derived the low value crack hedged as per annual report of about 12 USD/brl. Using gasoline the hedged barrels is 18 millions as derived by sslee. As such, you need to be good in maths to understand how these are deduced.
Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse
Dear probability, The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022 Notional amount: USD 226,945,000 Assets: RM 261,065,000 Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000 Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000
On 30/06/2022: Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578 Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125 Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85 USD to MYR: 4.397
V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels) A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)
Equation: from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397
226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A 9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133 A= 17.586 V=226,945,000/17.586 V=12,904,746
If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58 Equation: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397
226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A 7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133 A= 12.665 V=226,945,000/12.665 V= 17,918,718
@raider, if you understood what has been presented, your last statement will be absurd.... in fact the whole aim is to tell what happens when crack spread of gasoline goes zero or negative where HY still makes money unlike those refinery that did not hedge!
Thats why Raider highlighted the hedging loss is even more than all the past generated profits with hedging even at negative crackspread. You add up all also can see mah. Still at hedging loss. now Raider suspect the money loss not really on hedging but siphon out lah. Thats the main point lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
probability
@raider, if you understood what has been presented, your last statement will be absurd.... in fact the whole aim is to tell what happens when crack spread of gasoline goes zero or negative where HY still makes money unlike those refinery that did not hedge!
@MM, if you say these last year on your pessimistic view on HY i can accept....but we have entered golden age for refinery...... the margins they are making are not peanuts.... ROI is less than half a year now for HY's mcap ...and refineries takes 5 years to build
My starting comment to PSAi3alert, So let me repeat again: I do not have information on HRC hedge position nor the duration of hedged nor whether HRC overhedged or underhedged. But be objective and look into Q2 result.
Sep 4, 2022 7:43 AM | Report Abuse
PSAi3alert, Quote "HRC's latest quarterly gross profit of RM912.942M will be attributable to prevailing operating crack margins. The derivative losses will take out the difference between the current and previously hedged margins. Unfortunately, the losses of RM1,079.600M suggest that they have over-hedged and started gambling.
To suggest that the derivative losses will unwind themselves will give rise to an unlikely scenario - whereby a refinery company can be profitable during periods of negative crack margins, and have superior profits during periods of very high crack margins (that were hedged 12 months ago).
Sounds like a unicorn" unquote.
I do not have information on HRC hedge position nor the duration of hedged nor whether HRC overhedged or underhedged. But be objective and look into Q2 result.
The key is how probability knows about the specific profit margin of Hengyuan Gasoline & Diesel when this data unavailable leh ?
The public only had access to MOGAS 92 spread.....which is now negative margin loh!
We do not know, how & where Hengyuan very huge derivative losses come about, whether bcos selling or buying Crude, Gasoline or Diesel or Forex or a combination of all these loh!
Or is it really a fake....derivative structure to siphon out the value of hengyuan business mah!
It will make sense if the hedge positions are being closed for previous positions and being opened for future positions, on a monthly basis.
If the refining margins remain at USD40/barrel until end of the year, the gross profit will be high. But then again, the contracted derivative losses may well be over USD30/barrel. After subtracting other costs, interests, defaults, etc; there will not be much left.
Under the best case scenario, HRC can accumulate enough cash to close out all positions and settle borrowings, the cash is with HRC. Just like cash is with Ah Thong of Insas. Nothing to do with you.
On balance, I will issue a DNAA (discharge not amounting to an acquittal) for HRC from the 'Fat Kap Nar jumping in the street' list.
---
Posted by Sslee > 19 minutes ago | Report Abuse ...
Since the unrealised derivaties is marked to market on 30/6/2022. Thus a very high unrealised loss because spread margin is almost at peak of USD 40+ on 30/6/2022.
If this peak spread margin presist till year end then H2 will have huge realised derivative loss but then again the physical business of buying crude, refining to finished product and sold the finished product will earned you super super fat refinimg margin of USD 40 per barrel.
You can expect about another 21 million barrel for H2. So do the math.
Only good time can make billion. When bad time pun loss making juga lah. Now good time earned alot but too bad loss too much on betting lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
eagerinvestor
a company that able to make bil in a quarter having a bil hedging is excessive?
Talk until cow come how pun cannot tell how the mgmt did the hedging. You all can make assumptions but correct assumptions or not you only can guess nia nia. May not be the real case also leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
Octane number or octane rating refers to the gasoline ability to withstand auto ignition (knocking) inside the engine. Higher octane number refers to higher ability of the oil to fight auto ignition. In other words, it means that RON95 is harder to ignite compared to RON92
Way of increasing the RON is used gasoline octane boosters as additives, such as tetraethyl lead (TEL), methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), and ferrocene. Aromatic alcohols, ethanol, and methanol also increase the RON of gasoline.
Yout assuptions and Raider assumptions not tally with each other. Like 2 polars apart leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
probability
@raider, you need to spend at least 30 min to digest what has been presented, unless you dont have the ability to chew and digest and you need to spit out immediately... then i wont be able to keep trying to feed back
Uncle Koon ever cakap b4. Directors only cakap good about the company never cakap bad about the company one. This one from Uncle Koon leh. He makan garam alot one leh. Mau caya lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
Did the HY press released and newspaper ada tulis about HY derivative loss or not. Takda right. Only tulis explosive QR Report With 222sen eps. Haiyoh. Correct?
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stockraider
31,556 posts
Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 13:41 | Report Abuse
Correctloh...!
Saving ahfah son, sifu sslee & general public mah!
Very noble intention mah!
Posted by UlarSawa > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
No lah. Raider managed to saved himself and also saved AhFah the veggies seller at pudu market and AhFah managed to paid all her son education fee in Australia. And now Raider want to save AhFah son that gamble on HY lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
probability
ha ha even MM beginning to rationalize and realize...
great job MM!
Posted by MoneyMakers > 3 seconds ago | Report Abuse
S’raider u stuck high HY at what price during 2018 collapse (rm19-rm3)??
See u got crazy ptsd @ forever hate HY
20 seconds ago