Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-04 12:03 | Report Abuse

Ular,
I go thro the HRC Q2 account and with some accountant in i3 explanation on hedged accounting new standard I did not smell any fishy things yet.

But as a precaution, I invested more on Petronm and take a small position in HRC in order to respect my idol i3lurker (Robert De Niro) view.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-04 12:05 | Report Abuse

Just go and look up Q2 is for quarter end 30/06/2022.
What is crack spread at that time?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 12:05 | Report Abuse

Wow Raider repented save AhFah from HY and now trying to save educated AhFah son yang suka judi kah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 12:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 12:11 | Report Abuse

I gonna keep this as the Quote of The Day

:)

////Now Q2, crack spread did normalize but how come derivative loss jump to 1 bil? apa theory baru to support this, longer hedge time frame? walao, banyak excuse macam jho low.////

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 12:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 12:13 | Report Abuse

Saham price indicate the Q2 result good or not. Not your presentation leh. Mau accept it leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 12:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 12:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-04 12:17 | Report Abuse

Ahfah son (Now gainfully employ as Technology System Analyst}

I can only wish if only Ahfan son taking up accountant and now as auditor will be able to teach stockraider how to read financial report and the different standard applied rather than now stockraider reading the figures and interpret as facts with his fancy full story.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 12:17 | Report Abuse

It matter alot if u invested in Petron, but not when u invested in Kon Hengyuan bcos they will siphon your money anyhow, whether crack spread are high or low loh!

In other words....do not buy kon companies loh!

Posted by UlarSawa > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Crackspread up n down. Does it matter. Company earned but loss on hedging. Also loss mah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Sslee

Just go and look up Q2 is for quarter end 30/06/2022.
What is crack spread at that time?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 12:19 | Report Abuse

Raider has done the Best to SAVE SSLEE SOUL loh!

But....anyhow....Sifu Sslee is very stubborn....only want lose money then can learn his lesson, like the case of Xinguan loh!.

Posted by Sslee > 4 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Ahfah son (Now gainfully employ as Technology System Analyst}

I can only wish if only Ahfan son taking up accountant and now as auditor will be able to teach stockraider how to read financial report and the different standard applied rather than now stockraider reading the figures and interpret as facts with his fancy full story.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-04 12:20 | Report Abuse

The Q2 unrealised gain/loss on derivaties is marked to market on financial closing date. For Q2 is on 30/06/2022

Posted by bsinvestor > 2022-09-04 12:22 | Report Abuse

ok, still on high side in Q2. anyway. i am out of this complicated stuffs. with crack spread normalising, dun think the trend is there. good luck

Posted by Sslee > 14 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Just go and look up Q2 is for quarter end 30/06/2022.
What is crack spread at that time?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 12:25 | Report Abuse

of course everything will come tumbling down
and Humpty Dumpty cracked open by Crack Rate when Iran thingy is signed.

Dun take it seriously, just take all this as Sunday Cock will do.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 12:25 | Report Abuse

Ya but Hengyuan already make a margin call payout of Rm 1,542 million to cover for its, huge derivative losses mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Pls Read very carefully mah!

Why General Raider says Sifu Sslee analysis on Hengyuan is dangerous flawed ?

1. Looking at the balance sheet HRC hedging losses as at 30-6-2022 amounted to rm Rm 1,329M of this sum of losses Rm 1189m or 90% are contributed by just 6 mths of operation result for the latest 30-6-2022 Financial result loh!

2. HRC derivative outstanding liabilities todate is Rm 1,781M whereas is derivative assets is Rm 261m, meaning net derivative negative exposure is Rm 1,520M.....meaning the counter party should be able received payment of Rm 1,520M from Hengyuan, it is just like your share margin losses loh!

3. Then why counterparty did not ask for margin call , since HRC has a huge negative equity of Rm 1520M leh ? Yes the counter party did ask for margin top up and hengyuan already paid, this can be seen from other receivable & prepayment payout increases by Rm 1,542M for the 6 mths mah!

In otherwords, Hengyuan 6 mths operating cashflow b4 working capital changes should be Rm 939m, after less Rm 1542M derivative top up amounting to negative cashflow of Rm 603M mah!
The route to potential financial collapse of Hengyuan, are written all there in the Derivative mah!

Do not get into this trap loh! Despite Hengyuan generated record positive operation cash flow of Rm 939m, its negative cashflow from derivative losses is rm 1,542m ( which already payout as other prepayment} thus HRC negative cashflow is Rm 603M.

Most importantly, Hengyuan borrowing & derivative liabilities had ballooned to Rm 3285M from just Rm 705m as at 31-12-2021 which a staggering increase of Rm 2580M, just within 6 mths and of this sum Rm 1542M is due to margin top up of derivative losses in the form of prepayment mah!

Lu tau boh ? The rot of Hengyuan has intensified alot loh!
Be very careful mah!

Posted by Sslee > 52 seconds ago | Report Abuse


The Q2 unrealised gain/loss on derivaties is marked to market on financial closing date. For Q2 is on 30/06/2022

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-04 12:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 12:32 | Report Abuse

Raider intention is noble as describe below loh!
And it is back up by fact & figure mah!

The reasons why Raider need to uncovered the hidden truth about hengyuan bcos;

1. Innocent party like Ahfah son (Now gainfully employ as Technology System Analyst} has started to be interested of Hengyuan bcos of the huge EPS of Rm 2.22 reported in Q2 mah!
Just imagine a learned person like Ahfah son started to be greedy & interested n willing to accept in gambling on bad corporate governance stock like Hengyuan, what about the rest of laymen down the road leh ?
Alot of damage to their financial health will be coming to these people loh!

2. Also Raider trying hard to save Sifu SSLEE from damaging his prestigious reputation by acting as a fool in promoting Hengyuan loh....!
U see raider has soft spot for SSLEE, he is really kind gentleman & he is trying to do great services to the Society loh!
However Hengyuan which its magic reporting & highly complicated manipulative high finance is very complicated for Sifu SSLEE (general financial knowledge) to comprehend, in addition he has been mislead by people like Probability with his droves of fake duplicated IDS followers & supporters painting a fine picture on HRC, despite its core are roting loh!

It is a relieve for General Raider to hear Sifu SSLEE has a very small exposure on Hengyuan, thus Raider suggest he completely dispose it & switch quickly to Petron for better night sleep loh!

osted by MoneyMakers > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

S’raider u stuck high HY at what price during 2018 collapse (rm19-rm3)??

See u got crazy ptsd @ forever hate HY

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-04 12:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 12:39 | Report Abuse

Raider repented after saved AhFah from misery b4. Now Raider even want to save AhFah son that graduated from Australia from judi HY leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


MoneyMakers

S’raider u stuck high HY at what price during 2018 collapse (rm19-rm3)??

See u got crazy ptsd @ forever hate HY

6 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 12:46 | Report Abuse

How about you. You manage to save yourself from bungaraya with explosive QR kah. Haiyoh. Correct?

MoneyMakers

S’raider u stuck high HY at what price during 2018 collapse (rm19-rm3)??

See u got crazy ptsd @ forever hate HY

3 minutes ago

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-04 12:52 | Report Abuse

Ular Shut up & go back to ur TG snake bbq

No need reply my post with ur nonsense

Posted by AlsvinChangan > 2022-09-04 12:55 | Report Abuse

VICTIMS of double edge sword hedging

MAS, IOICORP, AA

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 12:56 | Report Abuse

Correct lor. Your view against market view always not the same. If same all sudah jadi kaya raya liao lor. Like the one cakap Explosive QR will limit up one pun not correct leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

qqq3333

As for me, I got some money in hibiscus....but hibiscus is not without skeleton in closet too....it's always just your opinion Vs the market

12 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 12:58 | Report Abuse

HY too. Haiyoh. Correct?

AlsvinChangan

VICTIMS of double edge sword hedging

MAS, IOICORP, AA

1 minute ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 12:59 | Report Abuse

Bcos both also cannot accept China rise too fast and will overtake US. Haiyoh. Correct?


qqq3333

US under Biden or Trump are both very bad presidents

12 minutes ago

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 13:02 | Report Abuse

French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that he hoped the deal with Iran would be revived in the coming days.

"I hope that in the next few days the JCPOA will be concluded," Macron said during his annual speech to ambassadors at the presidential palace in Paris.

on Friday crude oil price crashed,
today is Sunday.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 13:02 | Report Abuse

After a very fierce debate in the weekend. Hope those judi one take extra precaution when judi HY. Jangan overly read the good or bad views from the forum. Make a wise decision and know your limit when judi. No one owe you a living in the forum and your money you decide how you want to judi. Ok. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-04 13:03 | Report Abuse

MoneyMakers Only probability/sslee think HY hedging always perfect/profitable
Dunno whether they blind or what - never see HY soo many prev QR got losses

MM can you read english?
If you can that don't put your word into my mouth and read again and again :

What I say is to be objective and look into Q2 result.
Page 8
The profit/(loss) before taxation is arrived at after crediting)/charging
Fair value loss on derivative financial instruments:
Q2: RM 438,758,000. Cumulative RM 870,964,000
Page 5
Operating profit before changes in working capital RM 939,171,000

So in H1 the realised fair value loss on derivative is RM 870,964,000 and HRC still able to make an operating profit before changes in working capital RM 939,171,000.

Hence should you be very afraid of the unrealised losses RM1,079.600,000 marked to market (as on 31/06/22 when the crack spread was at the peak) outstanding derivatives till proclaims that HRC will have cash flow problems and going to bankrupt like Serba or AAX or CapitalA.

In other word if HRC do not do hedged by now H1 sale volume of about 21 million barrels should have gave them a super fat profit before tax of RM RM 870,964,000 + RM 982,535,000
Or a profit before tax of about USD 20 per barrel.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 13:06 | Report Abuse

Crude Oil can be traded via 3 main channels,
[still got others its called dll, not a bad word its => dan lain lain]

1) Oil Physicals & Futures
2) NYSE ETFs
3) OTC swaps

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 13:06 | Report Abuse

One simple OKU question from Ular. All the data are true or fake. Can anyone one answer Ular OKU question. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2022-09-04 13:11 | Report Abuse

SSLee,

HRC has a licensed capacity of 156,000 barrels per day, or 56.94M per year.

HRC's annual report stated that they have 100% effective margin swap hedges. To achieve a 100% effective margin swap hedge, all items will need to be hedge in terms of value and timing. Not 10%, not 20%. Not a little pregnant. 100% match.

June 2022 margins were at record high and have come down substantially.

If the cash flow hedge and cost of hedging reserve were to be marked to market, they will be probably be less than RM1,079.600M.

But then, the operating profits will also take a plunge.

For Q2 2022, if the RM897.257M profits before tax were to be 'marked-to-pocket' but RM1,079.600M derivative losses were to be 'marked-to-market' - wouldn't that imply ineffectiveness in margin swap hedges policy?


Page 101
https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=215677&name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS
[In refining margin swap hedges, ineffectiveness may arise if there is a change in delivery date of crude oil, change in volume of hedged items or if there is a change in credit risk of the Company or the derivative counterparty. As all critical terms matched in the current and previous financial year, the economic relationship was 100% effective. There was no ineffectiveness during the financial year in relation to refining margin swap hedges.]

Posted by Sslee > 4 hours ago

I do not have information on HRC hedge position nor the duration of hedged nor whether HRC overhedged or underhedged. But be objective and look into Q2 result.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 13:17 | Report Abuse

Yes Hengyuan can hedge....but they should do it modestly like Petron, even after netting the hedging losses, net effect is still positive profit for Petron...this is what a hedging should be...smoothing the profit every qtr loh

But what Hengyuan is doing is big gambling & siphoning money loh!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by Sslee > 6 minutes ago | Report Abuse

MoneyMakers Only probability/sslee think HY hedging always perfect/profitable
Dunno whether they blind or what - never see HY soo many prev QR got losses

MM can you read english?
If you can that don't put your word into my mouth and read again and again :

What I say is to be objective and look into Q2 result.
Page 8
The profit/(loss) before taxation is arrived at after crediting)/charging
Fair value loss on derivative financial instruments:
Q2: RM 438,758,000. Cumulative RM 870,964,000
Page 5
Operating profit before changes in working capital RM 939,171,000

So in H1 the realised fair value loss on derivative is RM 870,964,000 and HRC still able to make an operating profit before changes in working capital RM 939,171,000.

Hence should you be very afraid of the unrealised losses RM1,079.600,000 marked to market (as on 31/06/22 when the crack spread was at the peak) outstanding derivatives till proclaims that HRC will have cash flow problems and going to bankrupt like Serba or AAX or CapitalA.

In other word if HRC do not do hedged by now H1 sale volume of about 21 million barrels should have gave them a super fat profit before tax of RM RM 870,964,000 + RM 982,535,000
Or a profit before tax of about USD 20 per barrel.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 13:22 | Report Abuse

prove on the effects of hedging when crack spread drop below hedging level for balance hedged contract is here

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:17 PM | Report Abuse

If you look into HRC quarterly report.
On 31/12/19. NAPS is RM 6.7045.
Q1 end 31/03/20 EPS negative 41.37 cents but NAPS is now RM 7.4418

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:32 PM | Report Abuse

You can check what is the mogas92 crack spread on 31/03/2020.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 13:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 13:26 | Report Abuse

In "semua pun boleh" land
the licensed capacity is a Dragon [balls]park figure.

By right
any production in excess of capacity is liable to criminal prosecution by Gobermen.
especially all types of refineries, palm oil mills etc etc due to pollution dumping licenses obtained as cleared via EIA.
Since operating in excess of capacities contravenes EIA upon which the plant is constructed.

By left
"Nobody" reviews this production figures, maybe they do this via a "binocular audit from office"
In real life, production capacities exceeds licensed lies by up to 30% due to extreme understating of plant capacity upon application, skipping maintenance, operating on "reported official off days" etc et cetera

for outsiders, its not so easy to pierce the curtain of lies.


Posted by PSAi3alert > 7 seconds ago | Report Abuse

SSLee,

HRC has a licensed capacity of 156,000 barrels per day, or 56.94M per year.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 13:29 | Report Abuse

This is why you want to save AhFah son from judi HY
Haiyoh. Correct?

stockraider

Yes Hengyuan can hedge....but they should do it modestly like Petron, even after netting the hedging losses, net effect is still positive profit for Petron...this is what a hedging should be...smoothing the profit every qtr loh

But what Hengyuan is doing is big gambling & siphoning money loh!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 13:31 | Report Abuse

they hedge about 18 million barrels for a period of 24 months, about 20% of their sales throughput. 80% is free to capture market margin. The Cost of hedging reserve indicates what will be the implication to this hedged 18 million barrels if the phenomenally high margin of gasoline at 32 USD/brl at end of June 22' persist indefinitely. Its mark to market hedging loss/gain. We can expect the figure to reverse, when gasoline reverts to normal level by end of Sept 22'. Currently Gasoline crack spread is below hedged margin of 12.7 USD/brl at 7.8 USD/brl.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 13:31 | Report Abuse

Raider asklah....how could embargo on Russia....help Hengyuan & Petron....to make more money leh ??

The impact is remote mah!

Also Msia is not exporting diesel & gasoline to Europe mah!

This probability very panlai spin mah!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 13:32 | Report Abuse

Now all also judi on HY judi on hedging. So whoever judi HY can make money from hedging one must see the actual result how HY perform on judi the hedging leh. HY loss on hedging leh. Like this you all also judi on HY leh. Not investing leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 13:33 | Report Abuse

ha ha even MM beginning to rationalize and realize...

great job MM!

Posted by MoneyMakers > 3 seconds ago | Report Abuse

S’raider u stuck high HY at what price during 2018 collapse (rm19-rm3)??

See u got crazy ptsd @ forever hate HY

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 13:34 | Report Abuse

silly feller NYSE start 9:30 and do oil trading NYSE

Posted by i3lurker > 26 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Crude Oil can be traded via 3 main channels,
[still got others its called dll, not a bad word its => dan lain lain]

1) Oil Physicals & Futures
2) NYSE ETFs
3) OTC swaps

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-04 13:35 | Report Abuse

silly feller calls Macron a liar

Posted by i3lurker > 32 minutes ago | Report Abuse

French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that he hoped the deal with Iran would be revived in the coming days.

"I hope that in the next few days the JCPOA will be concluded," Macron said during his annual speech to ambassadors at the presidential palace in Paris.

on Friday crude oil price crashed,
today is Sunday.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 13:36 | Report Abuse

No lah. Raider managed to saved himself and also saved AhFah the veggies seller at pudu market and AhFah managed to paid all her son education fee in Australia. And now Raider want to save AhFah son that gamble on HY lah. Haiyoh. Correct?



probability

ha ha even MM beginning to rationalize and realize...

great job MM!

Posted by MoneyMakers > 3 seconds ago | Report Abuse

S’raider u stuck high HY at what price during 2018 collapse (rm19-rm3)??

See u got crazy ptsd @ forever hate HY

20 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 13:37 | Report Abuse

Biden saw the Iran proposal and threw into the dustbin liao lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


i3lurker

silly feller calls Macron a liar

Posted by i3lurker > 32 minutes ago | Report Abuse

French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that he hoped the deal with Iran would be revived in the coming days.

"I hope that in the next few days the JCPOA will be concluded," Macron said during his annual speech to ambassadors at the presidential palace in Paris.

on Friday crude oil price crashed,
today is Sunday.

35 seconds ago

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 13:37 | Report Abuse

I suspect the derivative trader is done between the owner macai & hengyuan mah!
Not thru an official exchange lah!

Do not be silly loh!

Posted by i3lurker > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

silly feller NYSE start 9:30 and do oil trading NYSE

Posted by i3lurker > 26 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Crude Oil can be traded via 3 main channels,
[still got others its called dll, not a bad word its => dan lain lain]

1) Oil Physicals & Futures
2) NYSE ETFs
3) OTC swaps

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 13:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-04 13:39 | Report Abuse

Thats why you said they siphon money out kah. Haiyoh. Correct?



stockraider

I suspect the derivative trader is done between the owner macai & hengyuan mah!
Not thru an official exchange lah!

Do not be silly loh!

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-04 13:40 | Report Abuse

PSAi3alert,
For Q2 2022, the RM897.257M profits before tax already included the realised derivaties loss matured on April, May and June of RM 438,758,000.

For H1 2022, the RM 982,535,000 profit before tax already included the realised derivaties loss matured on Jan, Feb, March, April, May and June of RM 870,964,000.

Hence if HRC do not do the hedging the profit before tax should be RM 870,964,000 + RM 982,535,000.
Or profit before tax of about USD 20 per barrel.

That is what I say hedging is for during super good time the profit will be less and during bad time your loss will be less.

Since the unrealised derivaties is marked to market on 30/6/2022. Thus a very high unrealised loss because spread margin is almost at peak of USD 40+ on 30/6/2022.

If this peak spread margin presist till year end then H2 will have huge realised derivative loss but then again the physical business of buying crude, refining to finished product and sold the finished product will earned you super super fat refinimg margin of USD 40 per barrel.

You can expect about another 21 million barrel for H2.
So do the math.

Posted by eagerinvestor > 2022-09-04 13:41 | Report Abuse

low margin hedge more u guys shud complain la if high margin hedge more also complain meh?
if high margin didnt' hedge enuff u guys complain why such an oppurtunity also didn't hedge it. Maybe hedging is such a bad word for ppl that dun understand it. To those ppl that own a factory, hedging means locking in profit.