Posted by yamanai > 2020-09-14 07:31 | Report Abuse

Better sell before all glove stocks sink!

Posted by Mabel > 2020-09-14 07:59 | Report Abuse

Why settle for Gloves when you can also have Vaccine?

Both are great industry. I'm also into Vaccine and Pharmaceutical. They tend to hedges each others and part of my Healthcare collection.

With or without vaccine, Gloves will prevail. Gloves fundamentals are solid like a rock. This I see is still lagging in the Vaccine Counter.

Stay Invested.

Meow

Posted by supermxmx > 2020-09-14 08:12 | Report Abuse

1.Modena - delay becos couldnt get enough blacks n hispanic for trial

2.Astra - Stop in July and recently but restart again yesterday only in UK..... rest of world still on hold

3.China - claim tested on hundreds of thousand becos those are all soldiers... soldiers cant say no...... but they didnt test all soldiers becos China have more than 1 million soldiers.... DUN DARE..... also 1 trial paticipant in indonesia contacted Cov after trial vaccination

4.Sputnik - a group of 27 italian, US and UK scientist find discrepancies in their Lancet submission.... investigating.....
13/09/2020 11:28 PM

-------------------------------------------------------

And now WORST!!!!!!! Vaccines makers keeping safety details quiet,ALARMING SCIENTIST!!!!!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/13/science/coronavirus-vaccine-trials....

Posted by goreng_kaki > 2020-09-14 09:28 | Report Abuse

TOPGLOVE=8.50 (RM 25.50)
HARTA= RM 13.00

DIFFERENCE = RM 12.50 ALREADY

Posted by BursaSentinel20 > 2020-09-14 09:50 | Report Abuse

By CLSA Analyst Stephanie Cheah:

Dialling back to the basics
Diving into sustainable fair values following two bumper years
Recent volatility in sector share prices despite no change in fundamentals has led us to question if investors are now looking beyond two years of stellar earnings growth. Valuations are undoubtedly attractive across glove-makers, in our view, at single-digit PEs pegged to peak 12-month forward earnings, further backed by c.5%-9% dividend yields. However, we aim to provide a yardstick for investors by capturing both the value of the short-term boom period coupled with the long-term value from higher, sustainable earnings. This exercise still yields upside potential for glove stocks from current share prices, further affirming our Overweight stance on the sector.

Tying in our base case and timeline
>The mass availability of an effective Covid-19 vaccine, especially in the glove-makers key US market, will ndeniably spell the end of the sector’s hyper-normal era.
>Our base case assumes a mass vaccination by mid-2021, and that the vaccination process coupled with restocking activity will sustain utilisation rates.
>Our near-term ASPs therefore continue to price-in an uptrend up until mid-2021 where we expect price-leader, Top Glove’s ASPs to converge with that of peers Hartalega and Kossan. We subsequently expect the three glove makers to see the gradual normalization of their ASPs at c.US$50/1,000 pcs for nitrile gloves by end-2021.
>The key risk to our base case is potential oversupply from new entrants, although see this as unlikely given constraints in synthetic latex raw materials, whereby we estimate the global raw material supply to just be sufficient to meet the current demand of the major glove players (Figure 5).

End-users will likely be conditioned-to higher ASPs in two years
>A major conundrum amongst investors is on where ASPs will land post-demand normalisation which we expect to be in mid-2022.
>We take the view price stickiness will lead to longer-term nitrile ASPs of c.US$30/1,000pcs, and latex ASPs to average at US$22/1,000 pcs. This translates to a 35%/15% higher sustainable increase versus pre-Covid-19 levels.
>Inelastic glove demand coupled with a limited number of players controlling the lion’s share of global glove capacity are prime factors for higher sustainable ASPs. After 2-3 years of hyper-normal ASPs, end-users will have been conditioned for high ASPs, in our view, while there is limited incentive for manufacturers or distributors to lower the prices in quick succession due to inelastic demand.

Valuing the short-term boom while considering the longer-term earnings base
>The glove mania has split investors along two camps with one arguing it is unreasonable for the sector trades at single-to-low double-digit forward 12-month multiples while the second argues it is unrealistic to pay a mean multiple on peak forward earnings which are unsustainable. Both views have merits.
>With market expectations of supernormal profits increasingly being priced-in, it is necessary to value the sector from the perspective of a long-term strategic investor, where we still see significant value being derived on a medium-term horizon.
>Our revised valuation methodology discounts at the cost of equity the FCFE during the boom period (FY20-23) and the target market cap at the end of the boom period by employing a target PE multiple on sustainable earnings and ASPs.

Maintain BUY ratings post-earnings revisions and valuation methodology changes
>Hartalega: We forecast FY21/22/23 (Mar) NP of RM3.1/RM4.7/RM2.0bn (+5.6x/+50%/-56% YoY). We lower our target price from RM25 to RM20 implying an FY22CL PE of 15x and a 21CL yield of c.7%.
>Top Glove: We forecast FY20/21/22 (Aug) NP at RM1.8/RM11.2/RM4.2bn (+64%/+5.2x/-63% YoY). We lift our target price from RM9.33 to RM10.00 (bonus adjusted), implying a FY21CL PE of 7x and a 21CL yield of 9%.
>Kossan Rubber: We forecast FY20/21/22 (Dec) NP of RM758m/RM2.5bn/RM830m (+2.4x/+2.3x/-67% YoY). We lower our target price from RM17.40 to RM16.10 implying a
FY21CL PE of 8x and a 21CL yield of c.5%.

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 09:56 | Report Abuse

wow as expected. smart money coming into this stock. might actually be the underdog winner of the big 4

Posted by Fundmanager123333 > 2020-09-14 09:57 | Report Abuse

i have instructed my team to all in this stock..stay tuned

Posted by hahasong > 2020-09-14 09:59 | Report Abuse

牛津疫苗失败，疫苗不可能这么快成功。

美国医学专家也说疫苗有效期半年，肥胖的人可能没有效果。

所以全球依然需要手套！买手套股就对了！

现在最便宜的就是ESCERAM 0100

The Oxford vaccine failed, and the vaccine could not succeed so quickly.

American medical experts also say that the vaccine is valid for half a year, and obese people may not be effective.

So the world still needs gloves! Just buy glove stocks!

The cheapest one is ESCERAM 0100

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 10:02 | Report Abuse

@Fundmanager123333 Smart! Unker give thumbs up. Grab it it's still relatively 'cheap' hehe.

Posted by drago_7 > 2020-09-14 10:17 | Report Abuse

A firm grip in the storm.. (maintain overweight~!) - CIMB Investment Bank

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 10:43 | Report Abuse

weak hands after be shaken out. more to be shaken out after the break. unker buy mcd first.

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 10:43 | Report Abuse

will be*

Posted by KYY_Fan > 2020-09-14 11:03 | Report Abuse

Simple truth - prices don't go up forever and ever. When they come down they don't come down forever and ever. The bounce may be temporary. What gives security is the fact that ASP is increasing. COVID19 cases as per the numbers provided by WHO is increasing. In fact it is at the highest today ever.
Vaccine story is like 2 years away. Sell at extreme valuations buy at extreme discouints. Based on expereince we are talking about a price range of 10 to 12 RM. Take the higest price minus with 10 or 12, but there. To sell take the lowest price add 10 or 12 and sell there. Good luck.

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 11:22 | Report Abuse

@KYY_Fan ofc. covid will only get worse for the time being. even then glove counters are still going to see huge inflows. however other counters from my calc is too risky for the small upside.

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 11:22 | Report Abuse

even when vaccine comes, the glove counters*

Posted by gloveharicut > 2020-09-14 11:43 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gloveharicut/2020-09-14-story-h1513491195-The_Star_says_Keeping_hands_in_the_GLOVE.jsp

Posted by JC1425 > 2020-09-14 11:43 | Report Abuse

hmm useless as usual

Posted by Kendo Ken Hz > 2020-09-14 12:00 | Report Abuse

""50cents EPs X 50x. Rm25. All in b4 too late""", Kuan says loudly, why you have doubts on him.

Posted by cutie > 2020-09-14 12:02 | Report Abuse

50x...too much lah...usually at 25x to 30x..where got 50x. 15.00 rm.

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 12:03 | Report Abuse

KYY ah? Whatever stock he promote, buy the opposite earn better lol.

Posted by JC1425 > 2020-09-14 12:11 | Report Abuse

Why is this stupid stock always low

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 12:14 | Report Abuse

weak hands all gone. buy now before you regret

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2020-09-14 12:42 | Report Abuse

my analysis done..
New targets..
Kossan RM21.50
Harta RM26.80
Supermx RM15.80
Topglove RM13.20

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2020-09-14 12:43 | Report Abuse

hi guys i m back miss me...??
Gloves r a buy after a healthy correction..
Good price dont miss the boat...

Posted by Lownet2323 > 2020-09-14 13:13 | Report Abuse

Don’t simply analyse and throw a figure. You know the total volume sold for each factories? What basis do you use for future cash flow(Guess?)? What is the growth rate? How about the risk free rate you use to calculate? How long will COVID-19 last?
Net cash flow and total expenditures of the factories.

Posted by Lownet2323 > 2020-09-14 13:14 | Report Abuse

Are you a certified cfa?

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2020-09-14 13:15 | Report Abuse

Buy gloves anything oso ok..
Before...
Foreign funds and aunty uncle n kaki goreng.come in ok..cos once they r in.. it will shoot up up up.and away..they not in yet as kena burn in a few days they will be back...then huat ar...

Posted by JC1425 > 2020-09-14 13:16 | Report Abuse

My analysis harta can go up to rm17++, not beyond that. Rm20++ are imaginary numbers which doesnt make sense

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2020-09-14 13:21 | Report Abuse

Jc1425 u forgot to add a few other variable factors...foreign funds..aunty uncle funds n kaki goreng...add a few rm to get wats the target...dont ever just use numbers...

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 13:21 | Report Abuse

@JC1425 Thanks for the perspective. Mind sharing your methodologies?

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2020-09-14 14:08 | Report Abuse

Listen..
Share price got many factors to determine it..
Profits the works is one..then variable factors and timing..
The timing is a factor u add depending on the time for example if got war sure sentiment towards guns will be high..human emotions in the markets so now all investors looking at defense stocks...
Then now in malaysis..
Interest rates down.
Foreign funds run away.
Politics
Lockdown
All point towards bad results for all listed companies..but gloves r booming so now human emotions push people to gloves or healtcare..that value u cant see in stock price...human behavior n timing..
So if u calculate harta is worth rm17 based on pe value..i suggest u add maybe rm5 or 10..for that factor....

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2020-09-14 14:10 | Report Abuse

if pe before u take 33 now better take maybe pe 50 cos u have to see the hype..timing n human emotions...thats wht share price always overshot n undershoot

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2020-09-14 14:49 | Report Abuse

Buy harta...its expensive in rm but cheap in pe...
Wait till goreng kaki.come here sure push to. Rm20 very bery fas fas

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2020-09-14 14:59 | Report Abuse

Hi mabel... thanks for sharing ur portfolio..
Iike now banks n non bank financials.
Healthcare
Plantations
Us technology
Brewery
Consumers..
Plantations i only like.
Utdplant
Klk bkawan
Sop
Hsplant
Tsh

Posted by JC1425 > 2020-09-14 15:58 | Report Abuse

If everyday increase 50cents to 70cents how to reach TP 28? Hahaha, rest of the counters increase rm1 this one is like a tortoise

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 15:59 | Report Abuse

Lol. Increase fast you think is good?

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2020-09-14 16:06 | Report Abuse

Hehe... harta n kossan... now undervalued but most valuable now...

Posted by JC1425 > 2020-09-14 16:08 | Report Abuse

Humongainz
For me its good. Can take profit fast. With current situation we never know when it drops due to vaccine and stuff

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2020-09-14 16:12 | Report Abuse

Harta is not goreng ..goreng go to hlt...

Posted by JC1425 > 2020-09-14 16:48 | Report Abuse

soar loser again. Even comfort is doing better

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2020-09-14 17:16 | Report Abuse

harta laggard.. very disappointing indeed. up slow is good you said? try see when topglov n supermx drop harta still can hold its price or not.. retard3d operator. sad

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-14 17:18 | Report Abuse

laggard why? no volume. the increase is good enough lol for the volume.

Posted by Babytv > 2020-09-14 17:25 | Report Abuse

Hehe hopefully tomorrow good news

Posted by JC1425 > 2020-09-14 17:44 | Report Abuse

Haha how many times curse also not fruitful, the counter is still doing very bad. I am only getting tensed and loosing energy lol

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2020-09-14 17:46 | Report Abuse

Hartalaggard.

Posted by Pgraduate123 > 2020-09-14 17:49 | Report Abuse

Hartaleggard

Posted by winwinvest > 2020-09-14 17:50 | Report Abuse

Hartaleggard

Posted by wildhorse > 2020-09-14 17:55 | Report Abuse

=MARKET BUZZ: Malaysia's Glove Stocks Rally; CLSA Sees More Upside Potential
Malaysian rubber glove stocks continue to rally, with largest maker Top Glove Corporation rising 9.4% to MYR8.49; Hartalega Holdings climbs 5.5% to MYR13.12 while Kossan Rubber Industries 3% higher at MYR11.00. CLSA says there is still upside potential for glove stocks from current share prices and keeps Overweight rating on the sector. Notes, “with market expectations of supernormal profits increasingly being priced-in, it is necessary to value the sector from the perspective of long-term strategic investors where we still see significant value being derived on a medium-term horizon.” Following post-earnings revision and valuation methodology changes, CLSA lifts Top Glove’s target price to MYR10.00 but lowers target for Hartalega to MYR20 and Kossan Rubber to MYR16.10.

Posted by MasterYoda > 2020-09-14 18:14 | Report Abuse

Huat ah glove counter,now Masteryoda want all glove sector to shoot up ke ke ke,haih this Mabel always showing off her portfolio and her analogy ke ke ke,only ikan bilis got portfolio,if you got money you can goreng any stock you want ke ke ke

Posted by cutie > 2020-09-14 18:17 | Report Abuse

Even comfort up 70 Sen...aiiyaaa...down, Harta follow, up, up sikit.