Posted by titus > 2019-08-15 10:51 | Report Abuse

Red sea means buy la.....be like Philip......is on buying spree....hehe...
As for myself, i'm not adding position yet. I waiting either it breaks RM7 or nearer to Q3 report. I read HLIB analyst report. Brent oil indeed has a big influence on Pchem profit. Furthermore, Rapid only will contribute an additional 15% to total PCHEM growth (If not mistaken la) and becky was right, most of the feedcost is fixed ie; on contract but with downtrend of brent, it does not benefit Pchem. Furthermore, with Rapid coming online, Pchem need to pay 50% of the market price for the feedstk from Petronas-Aramco JV. Pls dun shoot me as my knowledge is veeery limited and my understanding of the report might be flaws.

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2019-08-15 11:08 | Report Abuse

let see fertilizer & urea demand in Q3 can minimize the impact or not...India rainfall season good encourage agriculture and demand of fertilizer and urea rise...hehe

Posted by titus > 2019-08-15 12:33 | Report Abuse

fertiliser and urea contribute 35% of Pchem revenue.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-08-15 14:27 | Report Abuse

If palm oil no good people will use less fertilizer

So pchem will be impacted

Better sell pchem and switch to Uzma

Why Uzma?

Because in bad times when oil price is down Petronas will dismantle and decommission oil platform and oil rigs

Currently Uzma is doing decommissioning for 16 oil rigs in South China Sea

Monsoon over so Uzma should see more monies rolling in

So now is the best time to sell Pchem before price crashes lower

Now is also the best time to buy Uzma before price surges up

Posted by kingb > 2019-08-15 16:08 | Report Abuse

There's a big force pressing the price.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-15 16:18 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow may break below RM7.00 !!

Posted by mobidick > 2019-08-15 16:37 | Report Abuse

wont break 7 i think, if u see market depth the support is huge at 7.17 will mostly trade range bound all the way until exdate div before falling.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 16:41 | Report Abuse

Uzma very high gearing

Legacy problem from oil bust

Posted by enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] > 2019-08-15 16:42 | Report Abuse

I agree with @mobidick.
RM7.17 has strong support today. Pchem may continue rising until ex-date. What a bargain for those wanting to buy at a cheap compared to few months ago!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-08-15 16:43 | Report Abuse

Don't buy a stock saddled with debts

It can't go far with a yoke on its neck

Posted by titus > 2019-08-15 16:47 | Report Abuse

What a load of BS....when price is down, petronas dismantle and decommission oil platform and rigs? Then price good, construct again? Hello. u think this are rumah kongsi. Can be dismantle in a day and put up a next day ah?

Also, fertiliser not only uses in palm oil la. Generally, more and more fertiliser is used because of argriculture land that has been used many cycles is dead. If not mistaken, fertiliser volume has been increasing but the average selling price has dropped.

Posted by enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] > 2019-08-15 16:50 | Report Abuse

@titus, just ignore the troll/promoter. You post one reply, he will post 3 replies.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-15 16:53 | Report Abuse

Closed lower 11 sen on higher volume (double yesterday's volume).... not good signal.

Posted by dlau8899 > 2019-08-15 17:13 | Report Abuse

Up down up ....play around 7.20 to 7.40

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-15 17:21 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow we will know whether it is up down up play or down down play.... at the moment it looks more like a down down (more) play.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-16 09:35 | Report Abuse

Good morning everyone! By now I am almost definitely correct that it is a down & down (more) play..... going to break below RM7.00 soon.

Posted by ValarCuniasia > 2019-08-16 10:05 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha sad for those who bought at RM9 hahaha

Posted by titus > 2019-08-16 10:09 | Report Abuse

Managed to read thru the Q2 transcript. Takeaway from the briefing is Q1'19 is benchmarking against crude oil which is $71 while Q2 is $66. But the current quarter crude oil is around $60. So meaning the average selling price in Q3 will be lower than Q2. Also, they have build up inventory for the heavy turnaround maintenance. But the inventory can only last for 0.5 month to 1 month depending on the plant utilisation ie; if plant running at 100%, it can only last 0.5 month but if not mistaken some of the plants is expected to shut down between 40 to 50 days according to last Q analyst briefing.

Posted by Junichiro > 2019-08-16 10:12 | Report Abuse

From a technical perspective, the strong pivot for Pchem lies at abt 6.85

Posted by titus > 2019-08-16 10:20 | Report Abuse

I believed very hard for Pchem to break Rm7 because local fund is supporting the index. Pchem is the 5th largest weightage in KLCI index. The 1st top 3 have extremely high PE and therefore local fund can't buy too much to support the index or else it look ridiculously overvalued. So there is only little choices but to buy stock like PChem to support the index above 1600. Unless global market has very bad news or dow drop 1000 point for next 3 days, then there is a chance kua.....

Posted by ValarCuniasia > 2019-08-16 11:19 | Report Abuse

Rm 6 is near

Posted by Ncm88 > 2019-08-16 11:23 | Report Abuse

Up 1 day down 7 days, becky also cut loss alrdy

Posted by titus > 2019-08-16 11:28 | Report Abuse

Lol.....Rm7 also haven break and you already daydreaming for Rm6. Anyway, I wish that your wishes will come true...

Posted by stockraider > 2019-08-16 11:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] > 2019-08-16 12:15 | Report Abuse

I usually don't agree with holland king's approach, but I agree with "he that is down fears no fall"

Posted by ValarCuniasia > 2019-08-16 13:15 | Report Abuse

I will wait for rm6 patiently

Posted by titus > 2019-08-16 15:17 | Report Abuse

me too....and praying hard for it ........lol.....

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-16 15:40 | Report Abuse

Somebody trying very hard to defend RM7.20, hehehe!!

Posted by freddiehero > 2019-08-16 15:42 | Report Abuse

let it break

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-08-16 15:51 | Report Abuse

waiting below RM 7

Posted by titus > 2019-08-16 16:14 | Report Abuse

because must make sure KLCI closing back at 1600 ma. So most probably epf or some local fund manager is buying back kua.....i think la....

Posted by jellyfish > 2019-08-16 16:19 | Report Abuse

why the klci index need to be above 1600?

Posted by titus > 2019-08-16 16:40 | Report Abuse

1600 is KLCI index psychological level......

Posted by mobidick > 2019-08-16 16:51 | Report Abuse

If must defend 1600 it wont be by using pchem with pricing 7++ they will go use other cheaper counter, like dialog only 3, mid cap company.

Posted by mobidick > 2019-08-16 16:53 | Report Abuse

ok i take that back, i saw that 7.15, 17000 bid qty, yep someone defending.

Posted by titus > 2019-08-16 16:57 | Report Abuse

Mob...can use dialog as well but Pchem or dialog still same. Pchem is 2x more expensive than dialog but Pchem is also 2x the weightage of dialog in KLCI. Meaning buy 1 pchem = buy 2 dialog. In terms of valuation, pchem cheaper coz dialog pe very high leh

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-16 17:00 | Report Abuse

Too bad..... defending also drop: PCHEM dropped back to RM7.15 & KLCI dropped below 1,600 at 1,599.22!

Posted by titus > 2019-08-16 17:01 | Report Abuse

oppss.....me wrg....close 1599.22.....below 1600........me bad...hehe....but close enuf to 1600???/hehe

Posted by titus > 2019-08-16 17:03 | Report Abuse

Okla...session end......have a good weekend la everyone. Let see tonight any explosive news from US market or not......lol

Posted by kingb > 2019-08-16 17:49 | Report Abuse

There will always be 'the day'. Usually after it stables for few days.

Posted by titus > 2019-08-19 09:16 | Report Abuse

Shell Petrochemical complex in US will come online early 2020. Meaning less than 6 months. This this give more pressure to the average selling price of some pchem product?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_Pennsylvania_Petrochemicals_Complex

Posted by titus > 2019-08-19 15:05 | Report Abuse

Wow...Pchem on viagra today ah? Price rose up so strong.....ada momentum oh.....

Posted by mobidick > 2019-08-19 15:14 | Report Abuse

Revival, but its still chemical co, so fast in fast out people.

Posted by KK93 > 2019-08-19 21:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Kayme > 2019-08-20 12:03 | Report Abuse

Petrochemicals 16 Aug 2019 | 07:09 UTC Singapore

Analysis: China's faltering car sales crimp petrochemical, gasoline demand

Singapore — Chinese gasoline and petrochemical demand growth is under pressure from decelerating automobile sales that are expected to worsen this year, exacerbated by a slowing economy, and the currency and trade dispute with the US.

The slowdown threatens the margins of key petrochemical producers in China and other parts of Asia, and paves the way for a growing glut of gasoline supplies flooding regional markets, weighing down on prices and refining margins.

Chinese motor vehicle sales in the first half of 2019 plunged 14.35% year on year to 12.18 million units, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics, reigniting worries of a second consecutive year of falling sales.

China's wholesale car sales dropped 7.8% on year to 1.73 million units in June, despite retailers offering discounts of up to 30% to destock inventories of cars with old emissions standards. Sales are expected to fall 11% on year in 2019, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.

"As such, we estimate passenger vehicle wholesales will continue dropping by 13% year on year in 3Q19. The decline will likely ameliorate to -2.7% year on year in 4Q19 on the back of year-end discount offered by retailers," Platts Analytics said in its latest China oil market forecast.

"There is no sign of recovery in the Chinese car industry anytime soon amid the US-China trade war, which has extended into the currency war now," Eun Young Lee, equity research vice president, at DBS said.

The International Energy Agency said that while worldwide car sales could drop by 5% this year as the economy slows, the decline will be particularly pronounced in China, which represents a third of global car sales.

The bleak outlook for Chinese car manufacturers is having a direct impact on gasoline and petrochemical demand.

BEARISH ABS AND SBR MARKETS
"Together with a strong increase in production capacity and a general slowdown in economic activity, the sharp drop in automobile sales explains part of the difficulties currently experienced by the petrochemical sector," the IEA said in its latest monthly report.

It added that carmakers use a lot of plastic and petrochemical products, and petrochemical feedstock demand has been particularly weak in recent months, with global naphtha demand under pressure since March and LPG/ethane demand barely recovering to last year's levels.

There is a bearish impact on Asian acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) markets, both of which are used for car manufacturing, and prices have already fallen.

ABS prices hit a three-year low of $1,370/mt CFR China August 7, while prices for SBR for the 1502 grade -- commonly used in passenger vehicle tires -- also dipped to an eight-month low of $1,290/mt CFR SEA August 8, according to Platts assessments.

Should car sales dip further, ABS demand over one year could shrink by around 768,000 mt, market sources said.

Some SBR producers, such as China's Zhejiang Transfar Chemicals Group, China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. and Thailand's Bangkok Synthetic Co., have already announced plant maintenance shutdowns in response to the negative margins.

With July's SBR margins averaging minus $105.53/mt, basis CFR China, several SBR sources have also warned of more cuts in following months should negative margins continue.

GASOLINE EXPORTS SHRINK
Lower car sales are also stifling gasoline demand growth and worsening the already persistent domestic oversupply in China, prompting higher exports in coming months.

"China's gasoline demand growth has been on a slow decline. Year-on-year growth for 2019 is expected to be around 75,000 b/d, down 29% from the previous year," Anthony Tso, senior analyst at Platts Analytics, said.

"Dampened domestic demand may become more apparent in 2H19, which will encourage more gasoline exports, up to 400,000 b/d (approx. 1.4 million mt) on average for the rest of the year," he added.

China's gasoline exports in May and June were at a relatively low level of 848,000 mt and 998,000 mt, respectively, but analysts said exports in July and August could top 1 million mt/month, with at least one Singapore-based analyst projecting exports of 1.5 million mt.

Oil companies only consumed 42.7%, or 6.78 million mt, of their year-to-date gasoline export quotas in H1, leaving at least 9.11 million mt quota available for rest of the year, Platts data showed.

Fundamentals in the Chinese domestic gasoline market have been weak as large-scale private refineries, like the 400,000-b/d Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery have flooded the market, even as China works on a long-term shift away from internal combustion engine or ICE vehicles to electric vehicles.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-20 16:08 | Report Abuse

Looks like EPF started acquiring PCHEM for some time now. I'll just follow EPF .....bought some at RM7.16, hehehe!

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-08-20 16:30 | Report Abuse

Probably, it is time for me to all in also

Posted by mobidick > 2019-08-20 16:36 | Report Abuse

If want to all in better wait exdiv date, at that price would be 7.05+-, then u can know if its heading down or return up.

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-08-20 16:38 | Report Abuse

@mobidick, thanks for your advice. Will wait for that day then. It is just a week away from now.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-20 16:38 | Report Abuse

I won't all in now..... the price has not rebounded yet despite EPF's continuous buying.