Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-09-11 15:26 | Report Abuse

Up so much .. sigh

Posted by cooldownguy86 > 2019-09-11 15:46 | Report Abuse

Dun worry always got chance to buy back/accumulate. Just need to be patient

Posted by monetary > 2019-09-11 16:03 | Report Abuse

I guess call wa issuers take opportunity to stock up at current low price.

Posted by jellyfish > 2019-09-11 16:09 | Report Abuse

cracy counter.. up n down for no reason..

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-09-11 16:11 | Report Abuse

Dear RainT and cooldownguy86,
Thanks for your kind advice. Still a newbie in market.

Posted by jellyfish > 2019-09-11 16:16 | Report Abuse

luckily got keep some under the pillow..

Posted by Junichiro > 2019-09-11 16:18 | Report Abuse

Posted by Junichiro > Aug 16, 2019 10:12 AM | Report Abuse X

From a technical perspective, the strong pivot for Pchem lies at abt 6.85

The pivot is able to hold.

Posted by Jaya > 2019-09-11 17:49 | Report Abuse

Keep flying

Posted by Jaya > 2019-09-11 20:21 | Report Abuse

Very good show

Posted by KooSan > 2019-09-11 22:44 | Report Abuse

Suddenly calvintaneng is nowhere here

Posted by enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] > 2019-09-12 00:36 | Report Abuse

Trust Philip or Calvintan? It's obvious, isn't it?

Posted by monetary > 2019-09-12 09:14 | Report Abuse

really all the way up ka? no pit stop? give chance to top up lar.

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-09-12 09:18 | Report Abuse

Make me like want to buy back

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-12 09:29 | Report Abuse

Chokhmah......to make you feel better, it is at my breakeven price now. So if you buy, you got someone accompany u if shit happens....hehe. It din drop to the 6.50. Well, too bad. Anyway, I will wait for the next QR or near to announcement of next Qr to decide the price to buy for 2 more allocated portion for this stk.

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-09-12 09:34 | Report Abuse

I buy a bit now. Join the party

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-12 09:39 | Report Abuse

wah...u really buy ah?....if u turn dun blame me ah.....my above comment not a buy call le.....illegal 1 leh....
I still have 2 parts of my allocated funding unused. So if u turn, i can average down.

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-12 09:43 | Report Abuse

from bottom now up 9%

uptrend confirm??

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-09-12 09:44 | Report Abuse

Titan, I won’t blame you, I buy a bit

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-12 09:45 | Report Abuse

@titan

if u wait next qtr result or nearby that date

the share price will be already at 8.00 then u miss the opportunity to ride on the share price uptrend

why not now use your balance 2 unallocated fund now ?

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-09-12 09:45 | Report Abuse

No idea what’s happening

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-12 09:47 | Report Abuse

@jellyfish

this PCHEM down and up have reason one

u said no reason means that u are not experiences enough and u do know what u are investing (if u buy PCHEM la)

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-12 09:57 | Report Abuse

for those want buy PCHEM to ride on the uptrend (maybe)

please beware and take note that in next quarter result cover from period Jul Aug Sep 2019 that will announce in Nov 2019, PCHEM have shutdown some of its plant for statutory turn around

it means as PCHEM is in high risk biz, so they must follow law and regulation to certain period to shutdown some of the plant for repair and maintenance to check all the plant is it ok or not to avoid explosion etc

so next qtr result might be bad as revenue drop and profit will follow drop as well

but this also need depend on how smart the PCHEM management is.
if they are smart, they will have stock up significant amount of stock to support this turn around activities

if not the revenue and profit will fall
if u study more of other similar company like PCHEM such as LCTITAN during this turn around time the sales and profit will drop

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-12 10:03 | Report Abuse

but again why the share price have small rebound recently?

for me, i think is that

1. market sentiment improve, trade war reduce tension as China step back a bit and another round of talks in Oct

2. dow jones on high level again, so KLSE shares also follow
(this aplly that usually if dow jones up more, KLSE will up , if Dow drop many, KLSE will habis rock bottom)

3. PCHEM share price have hit rock bottom so some value have emerge for investor to buy

4. local fund support , if u see the KLSE index is below 1600 few days ago and PCHEM is among the company that contribute for KLSE index to be below 1600.
so as government must not let the KLSE down and down, the local fund such as EPF KWAP PNB need play role to support the index and they buy PCHEM

5. Foreign fund have finish selling or reduce selling on PCHEM shares

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-12 10:16 | Report Abuse

RainT, missed abit is okla. I won't be able to tell where the lowest and highest ma. So stick to my buying strategy loh and also from the AGM, I think upcoming Q so-so only due to turnaround. I wun be expecting great result. U never know on 15th Oct, wht ah thumb will tweet again. Ah thumb's thumb very powerful 1. press few alphabets, can cause the market down 5%......hehe

Posted by Rotiboy > 2019-09-12 10:21 | Report Abuse

@RainT

For those companies operating in this industry, how often they are required to get their plants to turnaround per year?

Posted by mobidick > 2019-09-12 10:37 | Report Abuse

The way the gain increase, the speed. I never like this type of increase, always as if some fund firm purposely jack it up. I want to keep pchem but not like this. Ok la 6% gain and exit before pullback.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-12 10:38 | Report Abuse

Good morning everyone! Hehehe..... this sudden surge in price is suspiciously on very low volume & it looks unsustainable (I mean the price up may not last long). So, be careful..... those who want to cut loss or take profit, now is a good time to do so (do it at your own risk).

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-12 10:42 | Report Abuse

@enigmatic, both of them cannot be trusted...... they have both been very wrong about PCHEM.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing]: Trust Philip or Calvintan? It's obvious, isn't it?
12/09/2019 12:36 AM
-----------------------------------------

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-09-12 10:49 | Report Abuse

wow, all of a sudden surge this week.

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-09-12 10:49 | Report Abuse

When Mr market gives you a discount day. Those who only look at share price will always be ruled by share price. When share price goes up, Calvin gets scared and says it is overvalue, don't buy. When share price goes down, Calvin also says scared and says buy again when cheaper.

But has the long term business Cub fundamentals changed? Will Lotte overtake pchem? Will a major petrochemical company flood the market and destroy margins? Highly unlikely. It takes huge amount of capex to construct a petrochemical complex. This is truly a business where lowest cost producer takes everything.

Will people stop using chemicals and aromatics and fertilizer and plastics? Not in the next 15 years. Beauty products relying on chemical aromatics are becoming more and more, judging by the new brands and stores in the malls and shops ( pchem new market with high margin). Will Palm oil plantations stop using fertilizer? ( Malaysia's is world's second largest Palm oil producer). Will Asia stop using olefins? Impossible.

The next 5-15 years business fundamentals for PCHEM will not change at all.

With PIC and da Vinci inline, the past growth rate for PCHEM will be nothing like the next coming years.

With the changing government and improvements to governmental policies and reduction of corruption ( slowly but surely),

I remain confident.

Dumb dumb buy and hold.

Ps Calvin tan, tomorrow I am receiving 11 cents dividend, 200k+ to buy more shares of pchem.

>>>>>>>>>

calvintaneng Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 5, 2019 12:06 AM | Report Abuse

Pchem collapsing? Don't make me laugh. 50 billion dollar company with 4.3 billion in revenue and 1.1 billion in profit AFTER TAX and a horde of cash behind it.

I am just enjoying collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend since February when I started buying at 8.15 collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend

SO?

COST OF PURCHASE Rm8.15

Less 29 sen dividend = Rm7.86

Price now Rm6.83

SO REAL LOST OF Rm1.03 PER SHARE

IS THIS PHILIP IN HIS RIGHT MIND?

YOU BETTER DON'T LEAD SORCHAI TO HOLLAND HOR!
05/09/2019 12:12 AM

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-12 10:52 | Report Abuse

@mobidick, that fund firm who purposely jack it up (to dump at higher prices) must be EPF/Citibank (EPF's fund manager)..... look at the recent EPF's Bursa announcement & u will see y I think that is the case.

------------------------------------------------------------------
mobidick: The way the gain increase, the speed. I never like this type of increase, always as if some fund firm purposely jack it up. I want to keep pchem but not like this. Ok la 6% gain and exit before pullback.
12/09/2019 10:37 AM
-------------------------------------------

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-12 11:08 | Report Abuse

@rotiboy

how many times turnaound for PCHEM or LCTITAN is i dont know

this need to depend on their internal guidelines and also the authority law and rules

for example for new plant, turn around might be lesser

and also under so many plants they have, turnaround timing also migh be different

at a time maybe the turnaround is minor only at other round maybe is major turnaround

what we ikan bilis can do is read through the quarter report & annual report to get some information about the turnaround

usually big company such as PCHEM they will mention turnaround plan

and can also read some analyst report, because after quarter result out , PCHEM will hold briefing with analyst

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-12 11:11 | Report Abuse

@philip

why waste your time to entertain that idiot calvin teng

in GKENT like that , in here also like that

before Calvin teng appear, u share with us lots of useful insight and idea about PCHEM and that is good

now can u stop entertain the calvin teng
and calvin teng please leave PCHEM forum and go other forum

we hope u can share more and more useful insight and idea on PCHEM, thanks!!!!

Posted by Junichiro > 2019-09-12 11:14 | Report Abuse

Posted by RainT > Sep 12, 2019 10:03 AM | Report Abuse

but again why the share price have small rebound recently?

for me, i think is that

1. market sentiment improve, trade war reduce tension as China step back a bit and another round of talks in Oct

2. dow jones on high level again, so KLSE shares also follow
(this aplly that usually if dow jones up more, KLSE will up , if Dow drop many, KLSE will habis rock bottom)

3. PCHEM share price have hit rock bottom so some value have emerge for investor to buy

4. local fund support , if u see the KLSE index is below 1600 few days ago and PCHEM is among the company that contribute for KLSE index to be below 1600.
so as government must not let the KLSE down and down, the local fund such as EPF KWAP PNB need play role to support the index and they buy PCHEM

5. Foreign fund have finish selling or reduce selling on PCHEM shares

Agree.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-12 11:19 | Report Abuse

Alright, looks like the transaction volume is slowly building up & the price still climbing up.

I think RainT has given very good caution (about bad QR coming soon) as well as good reasons y the price is surging up. I can agree with RainT on many points that he stated.

Hehehe..... I am more like mobidick, suspicious a bit about this sudden surge & don't want to be too greedy, make a few percent profit o.k. lah, let other people continue dumb dumb hold loh (good for them loh.... they can make more profit, wish them good luck).

Posted by Junichiro > 2019-09-12 11:23 | Report Abuse

3. PCHEM share price have hit rock bottom so some value have emerge for investor to buy

They call it buying on a technical perspective and will sell when they achieve some profit. After all, technical analysis only offers a temporary time window for ppl to take advantage of. Th windows closes fast.

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-09-12 11:24 | Report Abuse

learning from all you all here. thanks for sharing valuable insight.

Posted by mobidick > 2019-09-12 11:27 | Report Abuse

oh wow, it continue to go up after i exit. Really kann behavior, #$%^

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-09-12 11:29 | Report Abuse

@mobidick, after i exit, strong up!

Posted by monetary > 2019-09-12 11:56 | Report Abuse

not selling until $8.5

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-12 11:57 | Report Abuse

@Rotiboy, major plant maintenance ie; statutory plant maintenance is about 5 years once. The previous was in 2013.

As for epf selling.....in preparation for next year dividend declaration? Must show profit only can declare how much dividend. So must sell some kua......i think la.....

Posted by pputeh > 2019-09-12 12:02 | Report Abuse

Patience pays. Did top up a bit @ 7.28. Collect div tomorrow. Thanks Philip

Posted by AnnieKoo > 2019-09-12 12:07 | Report Abuse

not selling until my TP 8

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-12 12:09 | Report Abuse

As for Philips point, need to disagree abit. Nobody is arguing that ppl will stop using fertiliser or plastic or chemicals. But demand will reduce. Palm oil will use less fertiliser because since oil palm price is not good, why wanna waste money on fertiliser. Many smallholders have cut down their fertiliser or buying cheaper/substandard brand.

As for "Will a major petrochemical company flood the market and destroy margins? Highly unlikely. It takes huge amount of CAPEX to construct a petrochemical complex? " It is already happening. China is building a new petrochemical plant which upon completion will flood the market so bad that Japan and Korea already worried on the oversupply. Lotte USA just commission a new plant and in operation......well, I'm not an expert in the field but just reading news and seem more plant coming online and lesser demand will equal to suppress margin. Same like steel counter....i guess.......Anyway, Sifu Philips, dun shoot me if i said something wrongly....ehehe

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-09-12 12:15 | Report Abuse

This is not how Palm oil industry works. Fertilizer is not put today, tomorrow increased results. You have to continuously put fertilizer to get maximum output in size and bunch in a year or two. Maybe you should ask a Palm oil plantations on the fertilizer cycle and whether it is something that is "wasting money" long term. They will rather save money on equipment maintenance and replacement than cut down on fertilizer cycles.

>>>>>>>>

Palm oil will use less fertiliser because since oil palm price is not good, why wanna waste money on fertiliser.

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-09-12 12:24 | Report Abuse

This is not yet happening, because your next sentence is "building" which means not yet happen. In either case if it has already happen, then it will still not be efficient as building a petrochemical plant closer to source of oil refinery and processing. Note that China is the biggest importer of oil, meaning its internal production is not enough to cover. In fact south East Asia is a big producer ( Petronas) and Saudi ( Aramco) which is exporting nearer to.... IPIC PCHEM. What this means is pchem will continue to be the cheapest source or petrochemicals in the future ( hence it's large net profit margin compared to existing China and Korea competitors). With below 5% margins currently, it will only be suicide for China to start "flooding" the market against a company that has 25% bet profit margins.

You can compare Korea Lotte profit margin and China petrochemical profit margin.

One thing is clear, in the long term, oil prices will rebound, pchem will have increased revenue and even cheaper production costs after IPIC is completed and running.

Start comparing what is already happening, instead of what ifs.


>>>>>>>>

It is already happening. China is building a new petrochemical plant which upon completion will flood the market so bad that Japan and Korea already worried on the oversupply.

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-12 12:31 | Report Abuse

okla...sifu Philip.....u won the argument.......

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-12 12:35 | Report Abuse

Hehehe..... if PCHEM's price shooting up then nobody can win argument with Philip but when the price keep dropping to historical low then Philip disappeared from forum for a long time.

Posted by monetary > 2019-09-12 12:40 | Report Abuse

Big companies stick to their manuring programs. Small to mid size planters cut down fertilizer. But CPO price has improved recently. Planters start purchasing fertilizer. Crude oil price also stabilized. Downstream industries kicked started their activities. The demand of marine paint n other chemicals is picking up. The worst is over. Just a layman pt of view. Pls advice.

Posted by monetary > 2019-09-12 12:43 | Report Abuse

to b precise can tract Pchem inventory if u do know some insiders.