Posted by macgyvergoh > 2022-07-12 17:12 | Report Abuse

Hmmm last few minutes some party created a “strong recovery” camouflaged?

Posted by Whoisthis > 2022-07-12 22:16 | Report Abuse

Rm7.89 is the lowest point?

Posted by yfchong > 2022-07-12 22:34 | Report Abuse

push up

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-13 11:44 | Report Abuse

Rm14bill additional cost from higher oil price and coal material.

Posted by qcmboy > 2022-07-13 16:41 | Report Abuse

Not much people already. mean can slowly start collecting already.

Posted by Runnerup > 2022-07-13 17:00 | Report Abuse

Awaiting shark theory to be come back .

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-13 18:46 | Report Abuse

Headwind ahead. 2Quaters down the road will be a challenging one. Estimated may post lost.

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-07-13 20:35 | Report Abuse

"Estimated may post lost."
Can you tell us the basis of your estimate and how much loss will Tenaga incur?

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-13 23:53 | Report Abuse

On paper it should already at lost. Just accounting can be very subjective it can go either way on many factors.
Simple math's also cannot work out,apalah ?Rm5k loss cry like baby, cut it now. Thank me later.

Posted by KimSua > 2022-07-14 08:13 | Report Abuse

Important to look at how the ICPT receivables will be manage. Recent news mention that they are "confident" govt will commit but when and how much/staggered/quarterly is still uncertain ? Total receivables 14 bil in Q1 2022. 9 billion from ICPT (govt). Each qtr expect >3.5 bil receivables from ICPT. Not forgetting the 5 billion from other industries/commercial (could be bad dept). I would suspect government will opt for at least a staggered ICPT recovery payment of >3.5 billion qtrly and again high oil price has improve the government coffers, the reason for the confident.

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-07-14 09:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-14 09:39 | Report Abuse

Yes oil price increase more revenue but the number of subsidised items seems also increased which I don't think in total there is enough.It may then force some other units to temporarily take up some losses. I don't think the coal and oil will go down anytime soon, easily it will take more than 5years.

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-07-14 10:10 | Report Abuse

Suspension for good may come sooner. Terminal case, incurable!

Posted by Green_Berry > 2022-07-14 10:24 | Report Abuse

If scenario changes like tariff revision(iffy) or RusVUkr ends leading to lower input costs then rising tides lift all boats. Well after 4 long years down trend with no strong buy signal does raise investor appetite. For traders/investor strat differs. Have been on holding pattern for almost past 3 weeks with low point mark at 7.89 pivot point. Just place a GTC stop away from pivot slightly and not lose sleep - in case pivot violation. Folks giving price tgt based on FA/TA OMG - the fact of the matter is without the MyGov ICPT put, u will not even see this price on your screen now.

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-07-14 10:27 | Report Abuse

Under No Stand, retail/institutional investors won't pay any notice to the opinions of soothsayers. Boy, RM5k is already more than 10% of what I have. Instead of cutting, I had just added a few hundred shares.

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-14 10:40 | Report Abuse

It is not worst still. Just hold from buying, I am quite certain it will go red.

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-07-14 11:48 | Report Abuse

Don't drive share analysts/economists of investment banks out of job.

Posted by VTrade > 2022-07-14 11:57 | Report Abuse

Understand, any update?

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-14 12:53 | Report Abuse

Ahya those analysis are pure crap, all have vested interest. No basic of proper estimation, just tools to con bilis.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-07-14 14:06 | Report Abuse

@Understood, the floor is yours.

You have the opportunity to give us all the benefit of your expertise and submit a detailed analysis of Tenaga on this thread. Once you post it we can all do a comparison on your thoughts and other IB thoughts.

I look forward to your detailed report. Thank you.

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-07-14 15:13 | Report Abuse

Under No Stand is only an empty vessel who pretends that he knows a lot of things. If he can come out with a full report, I can pluck down the moon.

Posted by Whoisthis > 2022-07-14 15:57 | Report Abuse

People here all like to act smart la…otherwise no interesting

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-07-14 16:24 | Report Abuse

CORRECT, CORRECT, CORRECT! Just like someone here who stuck his head out to defend PanTatBersatu the other day, claiming that he was farsighted. How come this PanTatBersatu didn't foresee that his account would be suspended?

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-07-14 16:31 | Report Abuse

LOL.........that's gold, prudentinvestor :)

Posted by WinBigOrLoseAll > 2022-07-14 18:54 | Report Abuse

EPF transferred 14m shares to CIMB SBL (Share borrowing lending), think someone wanna short TNB again, gg

Posted by InvestorX > 2022-07-14 19:13 | Report Abuse

Fd date now around 2.5 % vs tenaga’s dividend yield of ~4%
From income investing point of view,perhaps it’s too Volatile.

But if u consider the potential capital gain, then it’s not too bad.
(capital plus dividend)
Utility stock is by nature a defensive stock but one of its main risks is that they are highly regulated. Tnb is still using PR2 punya rate which was from 2018.

I guess One man’s poison is another man’s meat.

Ps
I hold tenaga and believe in utility stock as part of income portfolio and will continue to monitor before topping up

Posted by Whoisthis > 2022-07-14 19:50 | Report Abuse

It was long time ago bro.. u know what they say elephants never forget..
U?

Posted by mahorse > 2022-07-14 21:18 | Report Abuse

14,315,229
Transferred Direct Interest
Name of registered holder EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD
Address of registered holder Level 42, Menara Citibank 165, Jalan Ampang 50450 Kuala Lumpur
Description of "Others" Type of Transaction

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred Transfer of shares managed by Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. :- Employees Provident Fund Board :- 14,315,229 to CGS CIMB-SBL

Posted by mahorse > 2022-07-14 21:18 | Report Abuse

Anybody have any idea on the significant of this announcement?

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-07-14 21:24 | Report Abuse

It was only a week ago, not long time ago. You have made this forum more interesting.

Posted by mf > 2022-07-14 21:37 | Report Abuse

Dow slumps 500 points as traders worry about larger rate hikes, JPMorgan falls after earnings
A MINUTE AGO
•
Samantha Subin,Carmen Reinicke

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-14 23:33 | Report Abuse

Last 6months additional 7billion expenses from higher oil and coal price.
Tnb net only rm3.5billion a year and that is when coal and oil are 3times lower.
I doubt it will be in black on the coming quarter.
Let say TNB is getting support from right hand pocket, maybe can declare less loss but getting in red is almost certain.
- just mark my word, we'll see.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-07-15 07:59 | Report Abuse

There is no argument that the cost inputs of coal and gas have increased, therefore adding to power generation expenses. Now, whether you like it or not you can't argue the fact that those extra costs are the burden of the Government, whether you like it or not, producing a net neutral cost effect on Tenaga.

Whether you agree with this system or not is irrelevant. Personally I'd like to see a modified pricing system where those in dire need receive the Government subsidies and those who can afford it pay the market value. But my opinion is irrelevant, as the current system is set in stone.

The bottom line is there is no net benefit or loss to Tenaga on their fuel input costs. The only issue is Government payments of the subsidies to Tenaga . Any lag in payments may/will increase the size of Receivables, however the bottom line is that Tenaga will be paid for those subsidies.

If this system falls down, then expect to pay FULL market value for your power which happens in the majority of the world. Ask someone, as an example, in the UK what they think of that system!! There would be an uproar in this country if that was implemented.

Bottom line, the government needs to retain the current system, therefore has to pay/subsidise Tenaga.......or the plan turns to shite and the lights go out.

Posted by KimSua > 2022-07-15 08:08 | Report Abuse

Just to top up to TTV. Accounts Receivable is considered an asset and having slow turnover of receivables can negatively affect TNB bottom line. It will not impact the short term profitability. Meaning as long as there is no surprise taxation or impairment we should not see Q2 profitability impact . Receivables are already capture as assets in in the balance sheet. Concern is the cash flow to pay the supplier which i do not think will happen. As long as the revenue continue to grow and profit margin maintains around 5%, it will be stable business, unless the gomen choose to screw it up by not paying the receivables timely.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-07-15 08:26 | Report Abuse

Yes, all correct, Kim Sua. Unfortunately the facts don't seem to suite some peoples agenda in here.
I'm unsure whether they actually believe their rhetoric or are just trying to beat the boredom by being arseholes.

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-15 08:52 | Report Abuse

No joke, maintaining 5%. That is what you get when the oil and coal is cheap.
Doubt government will subsidise from the right pocket.
It is adjusted to black still as whales need to escape first, then while you realise ,it is already to late.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-07-15 08:57 | Report Abuse

"I'm unsure whether they actually believe their rhetoric or are just trying to beat the boredom by being arseholes.".

I think it's the latter.

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-07-15 09:17 | Report Abuse

"Doubt government will subsidise from the right pocket."
You also doubt that RON95 has been subsidized by the government.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-07-15 09:26 | Report Abuse

@prudentinvestor, he'll be too busy eating his subsidised fried chicken to reply.

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-15 11:27 | Report Abuse

The government can subsidised until a certain extend only. If it exceed it's capacity it will need to pass the bill back to the people. However election is coming and this is not possible for now. The better option is to call Tenaga to absorb the losses. Ahyo don't believe just watch the coming quarter or the next quarter report, somehow or rather the losses need to be reported. And this is after whales cut their losses.

Posted by Phoebe > 2022-07-15 11:57 | Report Abuse

I park @ RM7.78 for a month. Will come back in 1 month time to see if my net caught anything. ^_^

Posted by mokluhanj21 > 2022-07-15 11:59 | Report Abuse

8 billion RM borrowing in USD. now at 4.5 to the ringgek. die standing la weh!

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-07-15 12:03 | Report Abuse

"The government can subsidised until a certain extend only."
Which government minister said so and when did he say so?

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-15 12:20 | Report Abuse

To naive already. If like money growing from Tree. Difficult time TNb should take up losses and believe this will be the case.

Posted by WinBigOrLoseAll > 2022-07-15 12:35 | Report Abuse

election coming soon, TNB will fly during election as many expect tariff will be increased after the election. collect now during low, not wait until the price flies up during election

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-07-15 12:37 | Report Abuse

He probably doesn't even realise the petrol he fills up his old Saga with is also subsidised.
Petrol subsidies for 2022 expected to be in the Rm30 Billion region.

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-15 12:42 | Report Abuse

It won't work, no matter how years ahead oil and coal will be expensive, this is a known facts. Not like Prudent Investor, trying so hard to save his rm5k lost.

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-07-15 12:43 | Report Abuse

"TNb should take up losses and believe this will be the case."
Please tell me which government minister had announced that the government can only subsidize TNB to a certain extent only. Everything must be based on facts, not on what you believe to be so. Don't be a joker on this forum.

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-15 12:49 | Report Abuse

You are the joker. When I say gov won't increase tariff, you keep saying it will. Few days later government confirm won't increase. Don't go against something is well known going to happen. Epf is dumping for a reason..
Later once red report out, most of the retailers will be trapped.

Posted by Understand > 2022-07-15 12:52 | Report Abuse

Rm5k lost only talking so much for what...
You are not doing good for retailers.