I have been thinking of Accusations like giving "misleading analysis"
I have posted 2,900 over comments here in i3 Forum Sites. Every one can check my recommendations for themselves.
SEE FOR YOURSELVES WHETHER WHAT I POSTED ARE GOOD OR BAD.
On September 20th , 2013 I recommended PM Corp at 15 cts. Today PM Corp closed at 22.5 cts - up 50% in 9 months
Warren Buffet Berkshire Hathaway made 25% a year
Peter Lynch's Magellan Fund Made 39% a year.
At 50% in 9 months PM Corp has beaten Both World Reknown Funds.
On December 11, 2013 I told Perak Corp people that Perak Corp to me is overvalued at RM2.87 (I bought Perak Corp at only 60 cts) & Pasdec is a cheaper buy because it has High NTA.
On December 11th, 2013 Perak Corp was RM2.83. Today Perak Corp closed at RM3.62 or up 27%.
What if anyone has taken my advise to switch to Pasdec then'
On December 11th 2013 Pasdec was 42.5 cts. Today Pasdec is 81.5 cts or UP 91.7%
So Switching To Pasdec at my advise on December 11th, 2013 is a much better move. Perak Corp gain 27% BUT PASDEC GAINED 91.7% or 3 TIMES MORE!!
THE FACTS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES IF YOU REALLY WANT THE TRUTH!
I recommended SILK at 40 cts. SILK has doubled & Shot Past RM1.00 Why I recommended SILK?
BECAUSE I SAW SILK WILL BE JUST LIKE LITRAK. THE BOOM IN PUCHONG CAUSE TOLL COLLECTIONS TO INCREASE SO SILK WILL DO WELL BECAUSE OF GREATER KAJANG BOOM
Debt and liability at about 250M. Cash very limited. Financially distress ??? 115MM to pay ADSB - 10 more weeks to go ? what to do ? Don't know... What is the value of this company - APTEC & Lakehill + Wisma MPL. When management will unlock the value of the assets ? Waiting since 2008 until forever ??? Investors sentiment - basically very negative... Can it be a sunrise company ? May be , with white knight as new major shareholder and new management ??? Where is the white knight ??? ' King of small cap ' cash out 29.5M last week and 133.6M soon ? Will he be the white knight ???
Conclusion : this stock can go either way - extremely good or extremely bad- depending on the outcome as per above. Depending on your risk appetite.
EVEN with a hefty RM120mil bill due to be paid to Amanahraya Development Sdn Bhd (ADSB) in less than six months and seemingly no way to pay it, Malaysia Pacific Corp Bhd (MPCorp) is seeing some interest. This week alone, the stock has gone up 11% to close at 51.5 sen although it went up to as high as 54.5 sen mid-week. Trading volume has also more than doubled. Industry observers say the interest could be spurred by something that is brewing in the property company and point to the possible emergence of a new shareholder. According to sources, Bill Ch’ng Chong Poh (pic), MPCorp’s former CEO and controlling shareholder, has been in several discussions with possible white knights and could be close to sealing a deal with a businessman who has been on a shopping spree in recent times, snapping up substantial stakes in mid-sized and small listed companies. “It is understood that this businessman will help MPCorp settle its RM120mil bill as well as help it get back on track but he (Ch’ng) has to give up his 61% stake to this person.” MPCorp in its email reply to StarBizWeek does not address this possibility directly but says its shareholders can expect “various changes” in the company over the next one year. “Strategic partners are expected to jointly implement our current projects and we shall announce this in due course.” It adds that “creating higher value for shareholders is always a key agenda of the board.” MPCorp is no stranger to controversy. In August 2008, a joint-venture agreement was entered into between ADSB and MPCorp’s wholly-owned subsidiary Oriental Pearl City Properties Sdn Bhd, whereby Oriental had granted a put option to ADSB to exercise its rights to sell its entire investment of 22% in a proposed development known as the LakeHill Resort Development to MPCorp on or before the expiry of the option period. ADSB exercised the put option granted to it on March 23, 2012 and Oriental was to purchase ADSB’s participation in the joint-venture project. A sum of RM110.8mil was due on May 20, 2012. A few months later, MPCorp was served with a writ of summons and ordered to settle the amount. Fast-forward, MPCorp has since said it will make the payment plus interests amounting to RM120mil or risk facing more late interest payments which will further hurt the already financially-troubled firm which has defaulted on millions of its loans. It has less than six months to pay up.
RM10.00 will be too high , which will value the company at almost RM5.5B in market capitalization. Fair value should be around RM2 if white knight came in to this company with the assumption that the company will through private placement , issue new shares for the white knight to inject cash into the company to settle ADSB debt and all warrant will be converted to generate cash to repay remaining of the debt. The land will be develop for the next few years and through DCF method of analysis , determine the PV of this project. Even at best case scenario , white knight came in , pay off all debt as above , dispose the land and repay all cash to shareholder , the fair value will be RM3. Based on my analysis , worst case scenario - RM0.42 , best case scenario - RM3.00. Will continue to accumulate once price break RM0.42
This stock will be in the same category as BJLand and BJGroup ( became BJCORP on 2nd Jan 2006 ).
BJGroup went through a long debt restructuring exercise from 2003 and finally done by 2nd Jan 2006.
After that , BJCORP-LC has been for quite a while hovering within RM0.05 to RM0.10 while BJLand at RM0.60 to RM0.80.
From Jan 2006 to mid 2007 , most investors believe these 2 stocks will trade at very narrow range , taking the opportunity of selling high at ~ 10% margin ( buying at 0.60 and sell at RM0.65 to RM0.70 ). By mid of 2007, BJLand and BJCORP announced UBS AG and Golden Sachs as new shareholders and the stock went all the way from RM0.60 to RM3.00 and then peak at RM6.60 for BJLand and RM0.10 to RM1.00 for BJCORP-LC. It caught quite a number of investors in surprise and missed the opportunity by trading in narrow range before mid of 2007.
We are the small group which were quite lucky by buying BJLand before 2nd Jan 2006 , recieved about 4 BJCORP-LC for every BJLand share free of charge from BJCORP as part of internal debt settlement and we hold all the way until Jan 2008 and sold everything at RM5.50 for BJLand and RN0.89 for BJCORP-LC , with a return for more than 10X for holding period of about 4 years.
Later , we invested 1/3 of our capital in BJCORP-LC when it retreat back from RM1.00 back to RM0.20 and BJAsset at RM0.40. By end of 2009 , we began to switch from BJCORP-LC and BJAsset to MPCORP and currently we are holding about 2% of MPCORP outstanding stock.
We are trading at wider range as we did not want to repeat the phenomena of BJCORP and BJLand as above. Under best case scenario , if white knight emerge and MPCORP halt trading for a day or 2 with material announcement ,the stock price after resume trading will rocket up and who ever sold their stock before at narrow range will miss the opportunity.
In contrary , as MPCORP Is a company with good asset and weak management , the downside risk cannot be ignore.
Therefore , we are taking the approach of selling portion of holding at various prices all the way up to RM3.00 pending material announcement , while at the same time , will accumulate once price drop below RM0.42. This will reduce our average buying price while waiting for material announcement.
The funding to accumulate more MPCORP came from the dividend that we receive from the remaining 2/3 of the fund that we invested in high dividend paying stocks such as BSTEAD , YTLREIT and MPHBCAP.
Personally , I believe the restructuring of MPCORP will happen soon , reason was that the management is getting desperate to resolve current financial distress situation, from individual and shareholder perspective.
I read through the write up from Calvintaneng and reviewed the details through Google Map , it quite make sense that Lakehill land is at strategic location moving forward and just a matter the management ( either current or new ) will unlock the value of the asset. [ Thank you CalvinTaneng for the details information, it was helpful ]
At worst case scenario , assumed inaction from management , no white knight , no JV and all warrant burn...
The outstanding stock will stay at ~ 288,700,000. At RM0.42 , will equal to RM121,254,000 in market capitalization . Current debt and Liability ( up to date at ~ RM280MM ) , total asset value required will be ~RM400MM.
Wost case sceario , Wisma MPL sold at RM200,000,000 , the land in Lakehill will be at about RM7 per ft2.
Personally , I believe will not be difficult to dispose both asset at above pricing. So , RM0.42 will be a good downside supporting price.
I personally went to Wisma MPL , overall condition was below average but the value of Wisma MPL was not only the building but the size of the land.
Wisma MPL with about 2 acres of land and at current land price transacted at Golden Triangle at RM2000 to RM3000 per ft2 , the land itself already worth more than RM200,000,000.
An investor with good financial position can buy over the property and have the option to refurbish the office tower ( or convert it into service apartment or hotel ) , the retails building and build a new 50 storey residential tower above the retails building ( beside the office tower ) , the return will be significant.
For the land , look at the price Ecoworld paid for Kota Masai land and Mah Sing new acquired land , the price of Lakehill land will go higher than RM7.20 even if classified as agricultural land.
The waiting period is longer than we expected , as this stock with good asset pending unlocking of it's value , it worth waiting with patient...
Good luck to all MPCORP shareholder..hopefully the good day coming soon...
Thank you for your excellent contribution. Wow! You have 2% MP Corp shares. You will be another Big Winner like Kakijudi someday.
Yes, I remember BL Land at about 60 cts which I missed. It shot up 1,000% later. But I am happy with very fond memories of BJ Corp at 12.5 cts. Those were great times when many shares were going for a song like this MP Corp & Mulpha today.
Is 6 of us in a group with holding within 100,000 to 1,600,000 share individually. We are looking forward for MPCORP to unlock the asset value and together with other stocks in hand , we are totally financially independent. Just need to success by investing 2 risky stocks in our life to make this happen.
I remember one of us in the group ( my friend same class with me from secondary school to University ) called his broker to buy BJLand before 2006. The broker advice my friend not to buy as the company with weak management . At the price of RM0.60 , couple with the BJCORP-LC free stock , at RM0.60 , we recieved 1 BJLand and 4 BJCORP-LC , this is a way a bargain with low downside and high upside , looking at the asset in BJLand such as BJToto , property value etc...We are looking for opportunity to make $$ ...The term Symbiosis came into my mind , we are eating the left over from the tycoon , he make big $$ , we make small $$ from the residual. He called the broker and insisted he wanted to buy BJLand at RM0.60. Years later , RM0.60 turn into almost RM10.00 in Jan 2008 , we are half way towards financially independent.
Is human behavior avoiding bad news and get excited with good news. When stock price going up , investors get excited and chase behind the stock. When stock price down , will get panic and trying to release the stock.
To be success in sock investment , be a contrarian, going against the market..if a stock with good asset value and weak management and stock price at good bargain , buy and keep it for few years until the management unlock the asset value.
The major shareholder with bigger interest than us and more desperate to unlock the value as significant portion of his wealth is tight in with this company. ( same as VT holding in BJGROUP in 2005).. he will be the biggest beneficiary if the stock price rocket up...
FAMA financial analysis showing in 'a perfect' market , to make $$ is to invest in distress and negliable stock as this stock tend to be under value. BJLand and BJCORP in 2006 didn't get any coverage by analysts , no newspaper even want to report their news..by mid of 2007 , when the stock begin to pick up , analysts coverage come into the picture , the stock price already at RM3.00 and then to RM5.60. When investors begin to jump in following the news , the stock retreat all the way back to RM3.00 until today ( after factor in split few years back ) and lost half of the value by investing in this stock from 2008 onwards..
MPCORP meet the requirement of FAMA analysis..will one day , MPCORP come into the limelight of investors after material announcement ..investors follow the market and jump into this stock , the good time already over...
An example was in early 2007 , when Vietnam property market was hot , there were 3 pages of analysis in local newspaper about Vietnam property and more than 10 property developers name was mentioned in the news..only BJLand was left out from the news..and BJLand is the biggest property developer in VIetnam.....
3 out of 6 in my investment group lead me to this chat room..he just SMS me , why I goreng goreng here..I responded..I just share my view and past experience....as I like to talk and share..since has ample of free time..
Hi samT, thanks for the great input. I personally invested a lot into mpcorp as well. I have exactly the same view as yours. Major restructuring will come very soon. Then you, Calvin and Myself will be very very rich :p .
I always look at each event from worst and best case scenario to determine the risk and return profile for the event. At best case scenario , the white knight come in on time and stock price rocket up , warrant will provide the best return as compare to the stock.
At worst case scenario , if the management required more time to unlock the value of the assets , the warrant might leave to expire by 21st April 2015 and all burn.
One possible scenario is the management extend the warrant as per Hevea resolution few years back [ as per below ] ( I bought Hevea stock at average RM0.33 per share in 2009 to entitle to the warrant at RM0.01 per share in 2010 and sold it later at average 41.5 sen on 13th Jan 2011 [ as per below ]
For those with superior risk appetite and willing to look for extremely high gain with extremely high risk ( worst case burn also OK ) , can consider to accumulate some warrant towards 21st April when the price is low to buy a change on corporate exercise as below.
In summary , my view of using the warrant to gauge how desperate the major shareholder might be risky. Beside , if the warrant burn , the loss to him might not as severe as he is still holding 61.4% in the company stock and if all warrant burn without exercise and without dilution effects , his weightage in the company will be not be effected.
The ADSB claim on 21st Sept will be more severe as this will reduce the size of the land and affect the overall landbank and asset of the company. Worst case will drag beyond 21st Sept 2014 by paying 8% interest per annum but how long he can drag , same go to RHB debt..
Hope the management realize that while they are trying to deliver the most value to the shareholder by unlocking the asset at the best timing , the minor shareholder need to b taking care of in interim...this is like trying to deliver Lobster to shareholder in long term , they need to get some small prawn to fill up the stomach rather than let the shareholder eagerly waiting with starvation...
EX-date 28/01/2010 Entitlement date 02/02/2010 Entitlement time 05:00:00 PM Entitlement subject Rights Issue Entitlement description Renounceable rights issue of up to 42,666,667 new warrants in HeveaBoard Berhad (“HeveaBoard” or the “Company”) (“New Hevea Warrants”) to all the shareholders of HeveaBoard on the basis of one (1) New Hevea Warrant for every three (3) existing ordinary shares of RM1.00 each held in HeveaBoard (“Hevea Shares” or “Shares”) as at 5.00 p.m. on 2 February 2010 (“Entitlement Date”) (“Rights Issue”); and
Restricted issue of up to 12,533,333 New Hevea Warrants to the holders of the unexercised 2004/2009 Warrants on 31 December 2009, being the expiry date of the 2004/2009 Warrants (“Expiry Date”) on the basis of one (1) New Hevea Warrant for every three (3) unexercised 2004/2009 Warrants held on the Expiry Date (“Restricted Issue”)
Attended property investment talk at sunway convention today.
Surprised that house prices in Johore from 2000 to 2013 increased only 2.62% compunded annual growth rate while in selangor kl pg & selangor achieved 6.62%, 5.95% n 4.89% respectively
This means that the current massive housing development in johore and its appreciation is still relatively cheap
Moreover, the population growth in Iskandar has the highest compared to KL & Pg.
Previously this project was turn down by MOF. MASTEEL recently announced that they will seek approval for this project again but I'm not optimistic. I believe the focus should be on the connection of MRT from Singapore to Johor. The Thomson line in Singapore is progressing and expected to be ready by 2019. Johor government is working on the MRT connection for IDR , expected to be ready by 2020. By then , expected Singapore and Johor to be like one ' piece' and population in IDR will growth to 4MM. By then , all the property build today will be absorb by the population growth. IDR future in the 5 to 10 years should be bright. I believe MPCORP management knew about that by holding on to the property to enjoy price appreciation. But for the interim , should do something to resolve the financial distress situation such as dispose away Wisma MPL to resolve the debt issue and begin to launch property project at Lakehill to turn the company around and begin to pay dividend to shareholder..
Another project under proposal is the extension of KLIA express to KLIA2 and then to Melaka and Port Dickson for a cost of RM2.2B.By 2020 , when HSR and IDR MRT Is ready , Singapore , Johor , Negeri Sembilan and Melaka will be well connected. Focus will be shift from Western IDR ( Nusanjaya ) to Eatern IDR. MPCORP land will be very valuable. Another potential bonus for MPCORP is the 3rd link , what if link to Pasir Gudang rather than Pengerang ( for cost concern as building the bridge to Pasir Gudang will be at least 3X cheaper than to Pengerang ), this will be big boost to MPCORP land in Pasir Gudang. In summary , if MPCORP can resolve the financial distress in short term , the future will be very bright. For those yet to buy MPCORP while looking for long term opportunity , can consider for long term holding.
I'm accumulating MPHBCAP as well due to their land at Pengerang..either the link go to Pasir Gudang or Pengerang , I will benefit from it but the expected return from MPCORP will be higher for next 5 years of holding
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
56,706 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-06-24 23:07 | Report Abuse
I have been thinking of Accusations like giving "misleading analysis"
I have posted 2,900 over comments here in i3 Forum Sites. Every one can check my recommendations for themselves.
SEE FOR YOURSELVES WHETHER WHAT I POSTED ARE GOOD OR BAD.
On September 20th , 2013 I recommended PM Corp at 15 cts. Today PM Corp closed at 22.5 cts - up 50% in 9 months
Warren Buffet Berkshire Hathaway made 25% a year
Peter Lynch's Magellan Fund Made 39% a year.
At 50% in 9 months PM Corp has beaten Both World Reknown Funds.
On December 11, 2013 I told Perak Corp people that Perak Corp to me is overvalued at RM2.87
(I bought Perak Corp at only 60 cts) & Pasdec is a cheaper buy because it has High NTA.
On December 11th, 2013 Perak Corp was RM2.83. Today Perak Corp closed at RM3.62 or up 27%.
What if anyone has taken my advise to switch to Pasdec then'
On December 11th 2013 Pasdec was 42.5 cts.
Today Pasdec is 81.5 cts or UP 91.7%
So Switching To Pasdec at my advise on December 11th, 2013 is a much better move.
Perak Corp gain 27% BUT PASDEC GAINED 91.7% or 3 TIMES MORE!!
THE FACTS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES IF YOU REALLY WANT THE TRUTH!
To be continued....